Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:38 am
ArrylT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:44 am
Rather than copy and paste everything here is a screenshot of a portion of that list
2017-2020
Where TE1-12 and 18/24 (as a comparision) aligned in ppr scoring.
Basically I treated each TE as if their designation was now WR and put them in the rank where they would have been had they scored that total.
This list once fully complete, along with the TE Round 1 & TE Round 2 databases will be available in excel format to any owner interested via DM.
This is interesting, thanks for the work and sharing! 2020 stands out where only the top 2 TEs were competitive against WRs. That 3rd TE drops hard in 2020 compared to previous years.
Pullo Vision and anyone else interested - I have completed compiling all the data from 2002-2020 on how TEs stacked up to WRs, at least in terms of rank. That data is too large to place in any one message board post.
So feel free to DM me if you're interested in the xcel file.
I also have all top 12 scores from TEs for every year, along with the 18th & 24th ranked TE.
Doing an average comparison over the years has shown, or at least, re-confirmed some interesting facts.
For example
The most valuable year for TE, at least in relation to WR, was 2011. All top 12 TEs ranked higher than WR 36. Points ranged from 330 to 163.
TE Scoring, as a whole, has been steadily increasing over the past 19 years.
Each rank, on average, is now scoring 25-40 more points yearly than it used to.
However there has not been an equal increase across the board in recent years.
From 2014 forward this increase has benefited the top 5 more than the group of 12 / 18 / 24 as a whole.
In fact, TES 6-24 have actually decline in point totals in recent years. Not by a huge amount, but between 3-12 points depending on the rank.
Interestingly enough the 24th ranked TE after reaching 100 points pretty steadily from 2010-2016 has now failed to reach 100 points in 4 consecutive years.
Meanwhile the top 5 TEs have continued to slowly increase.
TE 5 has gone from an average of 165 points to 195 to now 198
TE 4 has gone from 174 to 202 to 206
TE 3 has gone from 193 to 215 to 220
TE 2 has gone from 211 to 232 to 243
TE 1 apart from a bumpy 16/17 is getting ready to hit a 280 average and in fact has averaged almost 290 over the past 3 years.
Basically what I am surmising is that Gronkowskis breakout showed teams the advantage in having a TE mismatch which led to them trying to find their own Gronkowskis - which failed in part due to the limited number of players capable of having Gronk like skills. So teams stopped trying and shifted back to a slightly more traditional te usage, but still well ahead of pre-2010 - and this came in conjunction with the rookie WR breakout of 2014 and then return of the RB who could dominate 3 downs & demand receptions - like Gurley, David Johnson & Elliott then Barkley, CMC, Kamara and such.
Interestingly, Montgomery was the only RB from the 19/20 classes to reach 50 receptions these past 2 years. Many would argue he only did so with the loss of Cohen (now back & Damien Williams added).
With the age decline for guys like Gurley. Gordon & DJ - and in a couple of years time the rest of the 17-18 class
if the newer classes do not take on their reception target share, that along with the development of a Hockenson/Fant and now Pitts could, apart from keeping the TE scoring increase progression for the elite TEs, may also convince teams to return to more TE targeting as a whole, thus seeing a continued increase across the board. Wahingtons interest in Sammis Reyes may be part of another 3-4 year tread. After all the past 2 SBs have seen a heavy role for TEs Kelce/Kittle (21.7% reception share) and Kelce/Gronk (34% reception share).
Or it could go back to WRs.
Or the # of skilled receivers out of the backfield could increase - like a James White / Austin Ekeler.
We'll have to wait and see. Anyways I'll refrain from spamming the thread with all the data like i mentioned, but if anyone has any questions feel free to ask.
So I'll be correcting my post for that.