Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[Jigga94]

x2

Why not go for immediate production in the draft and then trade the equivalent of what you would have spent drafting a TE to trade for a proven Te?

Okay, so what are you prepared to pay to get Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, or Waller on your roster, because it’s been my experience that it takes a substantial overpay to pry them loose from their current owner - if you can at all.

That's not my point. Every TE you named was ranked 30th or worst in their respective dynasty rookie ranking. Here we are talking about blowing a top pick on Pitts. But to answer your question, yes, I would rather pay up for a proven TE stud than risk a top pick on an unknown TE.

I'd also rather pay up for the elite TE but I've had success finding them for free basically in the past, to your point with historical data.

From what I see, Pitts already costs more than Andrews, Hock and Fant, which is crazy. I'd assume an early 1st + late 1st would get you in the ballpark of one of the top ones (pending settings), Waller may only cost an early-mid 1st. I'd much rather pay that, get immediate TE production than to wait 2-3 years for a guy to breakout when history says it's not likely he does.

I get it, Pitts is an elite talent and the right landing spot could be huge for him. But if he costs more than Hock, Andrews and Fant... I'd rather trade the pick for one of those guys +.. they've already broken out and proven they are good. And Hock/Fant still cost less than their original rookie pick!

[jordanzs]

I just pulled up 1 of my 2019 rookie drafts. Look at all the players who went after Fant. The only one I would rather have would be Kyler Murray. And this includes Hakeem Butler going a few picks before Fant. Drafting a TE is all about opportunity cost. The opportunity cost of taking a TE is the RB/WR/QB that you passed on:


1.12 12 May The Horse Be With You Fant, Noah DEN TE (R) Sat May 4 5:38:36 p.m. HT 2019 4 hours 116.6 [Pick traded from Wookie of The Year.
Pick traded from HUTT! HUTT! HUTT!.]
2.01 13 Darth Raiders Murray, Kyler ARI QB (R) Sat May 4 6:41:16 p.m. HT 2019 1 hour 353.6
2.02 14 Storm Pooper Brown, Marquise BAL WR (R) Sat May 4 6:45:27 p.m. HT 2019 4 minutes 150.9 [Pick traded from 49ers Strike Back.
Pick traded from Death Star Vaders.]
2.03 15 Storm Pooper Isabella, Andy ARI WR (R) Sat May 4 6:47:03 p.m. HT 2019 1 minute 39.4
2.04 16 The MVPwoks Arcega-Whiteside, JJ PHI WR (R) Sat May 4 8:49:31 p.m. HT 2019 2 hours 32.9
2.05 17 HUTT! HUTT! HUTT! Henderson, Darrell LAR RB (R) Sun May 5 7:04:47 a.m. HT 2019 10 hours 24.4 [Pick traded from Death Star Vaders.
Pick traded from Storm Pooper.
Pick traded from May The Horse Be With You.]
2.06 18 Jar Jar Bish Singletary, Devin BUF RB (R) Sun May 5 12:23:20 p.m. HT 2019 5 hours 164.9
2.07 19 Princess Leia's Buns Hill, Justice BAL RB (R) Sun May 5 2:37:23 p.m. HT 2019 2 hours 37.6
2.08 20 49ers Strike Back Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB (R) Sun May 5 4:30:15 p.m. HT 2019 1 hour 108.6 [Pick traded from The Human SoloPedes.]
2.09 21 Princess Leia's Buns Harris, Damien NEP RB (R) Sun May 5 4:30:15 p.m. HT 2019 - 1.2 [Pick traded from EMMITT SITHS.
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List]
2.10 22 Princess Leia's Buns Homer, Travis SEA RB (R) Sun May 5 4:30:15 p.m. HT 2019 - 15.8 [Pick traded from HUTT! HUTT! HUTT!.
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List]
2.11 23 HUTT! HUTT! HUTT! Harmon, Kelvin WAS WR (R) Mon May 6 7:33:47 a.m. HT 2019 15 hours 60.8 [Pick traded from May The Horse Be With You.]
2.12 24 Wookie of The Year Smith Jr., Irv MIN TE (R)

[Jigga94]

In one league of mine... After Fant, Hock, DK, and AJB. Terry and Diontae were regularly going late. Can't see the other league rn but I'm sure there's a few similar players behind them.

And for sure, there are misses everywhere before and after Fant too. Parris, Hardman, Harry way up top.. Hollywood and Deebo are still tbd

There were hits and misses all over the draft. I think there was limited upside of picking Fant and Hock mid-late 1st. However, AJB, DK and other WR were there. Just hope you didn't pick a JJAW

[remedy29]

Okay, so what are you prepared to pay to get Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, or Waller on your roster, because it’s been my experience that it takes a substantial overpay to pry them loose from their current owner - if you can at all.

That's not my point. Every TE you named was ranked 30th or worst in their respective dynasty rookie ranking. Here we are talking about blowing a top pick on Pitts. But to answer your question, yes, I would rather pay up for a proven TE stud than risk a top pick on an unknown TE.

I'd also rather pay up for the elite TE but I've had success finding them for free basically in the past, to your point with historical data.

From what I see, Pitts already costs more than Andrews, Hock and Fant, which is crazy. I'd assume an early 1st + late 1st would get you in the ballpark of one of the top ones (pending settings), Waller may only cost an early-mid 1st. I'd much rather pay that, get immediate TE production than to wait 2-3 years for a guy to breakout when history says it's not likely he does.

I get it, Pitts is an elite talent and the right landing spot could be huge for him. But if he costs more than Hock, Andrews and Fant... I'd rather trade the pick for one of those guys +.. they've already broken out and proven they are good. And Hock/Fant still cost less than their original rookie pick!

I am not arguing your preference to trade up for a proven TE such as Waller, or maybe even Andrews. However, your are not representing Hockenson or Fant correctly, specially if you consider them proven fantasy players.

Hockenson and Fant were Mizelle 2019 rookie 1.10 and 1.11 with ADP of 90 and 92 in May 2019. That fluctuated a bit by August, but not much.
Hockenson and Fant currently have ADP of 68 and 82.

2019 was a weak rookie draft class. Drafting either of these players would have been a better choice than many others. Hockenson and Fant are worth about the 1.10 to 1.12 rookie 2021 rookie picks per trade calculators. 2021 is likely going to be a stronger draft class than 2019, but we shall see with the number of RB/WR drafted in the first two rounds.

The only assessment that can be made is Hockenson and Fant have retained or slightly improved their value since being drafted.

Now regarding the claim that Hockenson and Fant are proven. Both players have had 5 career games with over 15 fantasy points. Both average about 7 PPR points in 2019. in 2020, they have averaged 11 and nearly 10 fantasy points per game.

The fact that 11 & 10 PPR points is considered proven for an NFL TE is the EXACT reason why people are high on Pitts.

[Ice]

Think Gronk scored 10 TD's as a rookie if memory serves.

This is dynasty not redraft. One thing to have an opinion today some may think archaic given how teams are using TE's but be sure an own it if he breaks out.

I draft TE's based on where I see their 3rd year production.

Anyone that has tried to buy a Kelce type is brave enough to draft a Pitts in round 1.

Not commenting on Pitts specifically, but the strategy of spending a high first on a player who won't give you substantial production until year 3 is not a good one in my opinion. Dynasty or not.

x2

Why not go for immediate production in the draft and then trade the equivalent of what you would have spent drafting a TE to trade for a proven Te?

I think you guys misunderstand in a big way. When one looks at 8-10 year career for top talent TE's it doesn't mean they won't produce prior to year 3 but given the complexity of the position if you don't possess the patience then continue drafting busts like Harry, Butler or Vaughn's of the world with those mid round 1st round picks.

It is extremely short sited to think players don't improve over time especially at WR and TE. It also somewhat speculative to think 1.6 WR as an example will develop into a better dynasty asset than one of the best TE's we have seen in the last decade.

The game is changing ladies and gentlemen, I think it actually the real short sided view is not seeing it or adapting.

I get if one wants to use a 3 down in line TE as a bench mark but those positions are beginning to go the way of the fullback in today's spread formation with offenses changing to exploit mismatches.

Not directed at you guys personally but Pitt's actually has MEGA STUD potential but by all means pass on him if a drafter doesn't like him or is scared he won't produce like the redraft studs year 1.

I expect by year 3 he will be the best TE in fantasy and a 1.6 pick is chump change if he hits.

[abloom]

That's not my point. Every TE you named was ranked 30th or worst in their respective dynasty rookie ranking. Here we are talking about blowing a top pick on Pitts. But to answer your question, yes, I would rather pay up for a proven TE stud than risk a top pick on an unknown TE.

I'd also rather pay up for the elite TE but I've had success finding them for free basically in the past, to your point with historical data.

From what I see, Pitts already costs more than Andrews, Hock and Fant, which is crazy. I'd assume an early 1st + late 1st would get you in the ballpark of one of the top ones (pending settings), Waller may only cost an early-mid 1st. I'd much rather pay that, get immediate TE production than to wait 2-3 years for a guy to breakout when history says it's not likely he does.

I get it, Pitts is an elite talent and the right landing spot could be huge for him. But if he costs more than Hock, Andrews and Fant... I'd rather trade the pick for one of those guys +.. they've already broken out and proven they are good. And Hock/Fant still cost less than their original rookie pick!

I am not arguing your preference to trade up for a proven TE such as Waller, or maybe even Andrews. However, your are not representing Hockenson or Fant correctly, specially if you consider them proven fantasy players.

Hockenson and Fant were Mizelle 2019 rookie 1.10 and 1.11 with ADP of 90 and 92 in May 2019. That fluctuated a bit by August, but not much.
Hockenson and Fant currently have ADP of 68 and 82.

2019 was a weak rookie draft class. Drafting either of these players would have been a better choice than many others. Hockenson and Fant are worth about the 1.10 to 1.12 rookie 2021 rookie picks per trade calculators. 2021 is likely going to be a stronger draft class than 2019, but we shall see with the number of RB/WR drafted in the first two rounds.

The only assessment that can be made is Hockenson and Fant have retained or slightly improved their value since being drafted.

Now regarding the claim that Hockenson and Fant are proven. Both players have had 5 career games with over 15 fantasy points. Both average about 7 PPR points in 2019. in 2020, they have averaged 11 and nearly 10 fantasy points per game.

The fact that 11 & 10 PPR points is considered proven for an NFL TE is the EXACT reason why people are high on Pitts.

2019 was perceived at the time to be a weak rookie class. They have certainly developed into a perfectly fine class

[Jigga94]

That's not my point. Every TE you named was ranked 30th or worst in their respective dynasty rookie ranking. Here we are talking about blowing a top pick on Pitts. But to answer your question, yes, I would rather pay up for a proven TE stud than risk a top pick on an unknown TE.

I'd also rather pay up for the elite TE but I've had success finding them for free basically in the past, to your point with historical data.

From what I see, Pitts already costs more than Andrews, Hock and Fant, which is crazy. I'd assume an early 1st + late 1st would get you in the ballpark of one of the top ones (pending settings), Waller may only cost an early-mid 1st. I'd much rather pay that, get immediate TE production than to wait 2-3 years for a guy to breakout when history says it's not likely he does.

I get it, Pitts is an elite talent and the right landing spot could be huge for him. But if he costs more than Hock, Andrews and Fant... I'd rather trade the pick for one of those guys +.. they've already broken out and proven they are good. And Hock/Fant still cost less than their original rookie pick!

I am not arguing your preference to trade up for a proven TE such as Waller, or maybe even Andrews. However, your are not representing Hockenson or Fant correctly, specially if you consider them proven fantasy players.

Hockenson and Fant were Mizelle 2019 rookie 1.10 and 1.11 with ADP of 90 and 92 in May 2019. That fluctuated a bit by August, but not much.
Hockenson and Fant currently have ADP of 68 and 82.

2019 was a weak rookie draft class. Drafting either of these players would have been a better choice than many others. Hockenson and Fant are worth about the 1.10 to 1.12 rookie 2021 rookie picks per trade calculators. 2021 is likely going to be a stronger draft class than 2019, but we shall see with the number of RB/WR drafted in the first two rounds.

The only assessment that can be made is Hockenson and Fant have retained or slightly improved their value since being drafted.

Now regarding the claim that Hockenson and Fant are proven. Both players have had 5 career games with over 15 fantasy points. Both average about 7 PPR points in 2019. in 2020, they have averaged 11 and nearly 10 fantasy points per game.

The fact that 11 & 10 PPR points is considered proven for an NFL TE is the EXACT reason why people are high on Pitts.

Well maybe proven wasn't the best term. There's definitely huge space in between Kelce/Kittle and Hock and Fant in production. People shouldn't be high on a player at a position just because the position is all around bad though. I don't think that's what you were totally implying though. Maybe some of that mixed with Pitts upside? I can see that case.

It's mostly that I don't see how Pitts is already valued above all TE not named Kelce, Kittle and Waller. That just seems a bit premature given TE history being pretty random. Those 3 guys weren't even 2nd round rookie picks in most leagues. Hock and Fant were first rounders and have done well and maintained their value... I'm not sure if 2019 was THAT weak, there are several of them atop rankings. Not that deep I suppose, but I'd compare it to this class honestly. 3 or so RB at the top. a handful of WR and 2 TE instead of 1... Maintaining value isn't a bad thing either.

Lots of Rookie RB and WR have their value tank after a few years also. The historical tendencies with TE just seem worse to me with losing value/never producing.

Ebron and Howard were Elite TE prospects and disappointed. It's a tough position and most never make it. To bet on Pitts transitoning well AND becoming a top TE a la Kelce/Kittle just seems like very low %. Could he have the same path as Hock/Fant so far? That's fine too but it will depend who you took him over.

I think people are paying for the upside and that is understandable. I do the same with WR and miss terribly lol, we all do. I just likely won't be in a spot to draft Pitts because it only takes one person to be infatuated with him to draft him early.

If Pitts is on the clock at my pick and at the top of my board, I'd still float out trade offers for other TE to see what value gain I can possibly get. Although, I think picks are generally overvalued as it is

[Jigga94]

Not commenting on Pitts specifically, but the strategy of spending a high first on a player who won't give you substantial production until year 3 is not a good one in my opinion. Dynasty or not.

x2

Why not go for immediate production in the draft and then trade the equivalent of what you would have spent drafting a TE to trade for a proven Te?

I think you guys misunderstand in a big way. When one looks at 8-10 year career for top talent TE's it doesn't mean they won't produce prior to year 3 but given the complexity of the position if you don't possess the patience then continue drafting busts like Harry, Butler or Vaughn's of the world with those mid round 1st round picks.

It is extremely short sited to think players don't improve over time especially at WR and TE. It also somewhat speculative to think 1.6 WR as an example will develop into a better dynasty asset than one of the best TE's we have seen in the last decade.

The game is changing ladies and gentlemen, I think it actually the real short sided view is not seeing it or adapting.

I get if one wants to use a 3 down in line TE as a bench mark but those positions are beginning to go the way of the fullback in today's spread formation with offenses changing to exploit mismatches.

Not directed at you guys personally but Pitt's actually has MEGA STUD potential but by all means pass on him if a drafter doesn't like him or is scared he won't produce like the redraft studs year 1.

I expect by year 3 he will be the best TE in fantasy and a 1.6 pick is chump change if he hits.

If you drafted Butler or Vaughn mid 1st, you shouldn't play dynasty. No one is saying Pitts has to break out year 1 either. I don't expect many of my rookies to do that, some never do lol

Is Pitts truly the best TE in a decade? I've heard that thrown around with a lot of TE in years prior. What separates him the most from the big TE prospects of the past?

[jenkins.math]

If you drafted Butler or Vaughn mid 1st, you shouldn't play dynasty. No one is saying Pitts has to break out year 1 either. I don't expect many of my rookies to do that, some never do lol

Is Pitts truly the best TE in a decade? I've heard that thrown around with a lot of TE in years prior. What separates him the most from the big TE prospects of the past?

What separates him is his production and then you tack on that he did it in the best conference. I know you mentioned OJ Howard above, but he was always a guy you hoped could put it all together, but he had less career TDs in college than Pitts had this year alone and Pitts' soph and jr seasons would have been career best years for OJ.

I do think Ebron is the closest TE prospect to Pitts we have. Put up great numbers his final year of college, top 10 draft capital, great athlete, etc. But when I watch Pitts, he is so much more fluid and natural with the ball in the air and in his hands than Ebron.

[Cameron Giles]

I see both sides of it.

History usually isn't on the side of anyone spending a 1st round pick on a rookie TE. In non-TE premium leagues, you can usually get by with mid-level TEs, or buy low on breakout TEs. Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Waller, Olsen, etc. all could've been had for peanuts before they broke out.

On the other side of the coin, WR is deeper than it's ever been and RBs typically go early in rookie drafts because of the instant impact. Because TE is so shallow and the allure of a Kelce or Kittle-type advantage is high, drafting Pitts early makes some sense.

Me personally, I'd rather play the odds and wait, because if Pitts' development is slow, then people will sell low as they do on every other TE. Think about it, what are Evan Engram and OJ Howard worth right now?

[Pac_Eddy]

Finally remembered what all this pre draft hype reminded me of: Jeremy Shockey.

[Ice]

If you drafted Butler or Vaughn mid 1st, you shouldn't play dynasty. No one is saying Pitts has to break out year 1 either. I don't expect many of my rookies to do that, some never do lol

Is Pitts truly the best TE in a decade? I've heard that thrown around with a lot of TE in years prior. What separates him the most from the big TE prospects of the past?

Just clear up a few things. I believe around the time I joined; This site had Butler as the top WR and and many thought Harry was going to be great.

My take is these players were terrible and not even draft worthy. I also was the absolute leader of the DK hype train which was also blasted but in reality anyone who drafted those busts is fine playing dynasty they just missed judged talent.

My take on Pitts and if you evaluate him he looks like a man among boys much like DK did. Pitts looks a lot like Calvin Johnson if you want to go back and watch his early tape.

Pitts plays in space well, excellent hand catcher, and back shoulder. He is a plus route runner. Pitts is a prototype space player much like Kelce but with maybe even more WR qualities.

He put up 770 yards and 12 TD's in 8 games.

I would strongly suggest anyone that evaluates this player step out of the confining TE BOX for a moment and look at this player as an actual receiving threat weapon with a TE designation.

This player is as close to a lock top 10 pick as I have seen in years. I would a lay a grand in Vegas he goes top 15 overall in the NFL draft.

He is a very high floor unlimited ceiling player in a few years IMO. Draft him if you can is my advice.

[Straycatz2]

Where would you take Pitts in SF / 2TE?

Also is there a realistic top 10 team you think if pitts goes to he would likely succeed? And is there a top 10 team that is likely to take him that you would hate?

[McCafsteez]

If you drafted Butler or Vaughn mid 1st, you shouldn't play dynasty. No one is saying Pitts has to break out year 1 either. I don't expect many of my rookies to do that, some never do lol

Is Pitts truly the best TE in a decade? I've heard that thrown around with a lot of TE in years prior. What separates him the most from the big TE prospects of the past?

Just clear up a few things. I believe around the time I joined; This site had Butler as the top WR and and many thought Harry was going to be great.

My take is these players were terrible and not even draft worthy. I also was the absolute leader of the DK hype train which was also blasted but in reality anyone who drafted those busts is fine playing dynasty they just missed judged talent.

My take on Pitts and if you evaluate him he looks like a man among boys much like DK did. Pitts looks a lot like Calvin Johnson if you want to go back and watch his early tape.

Pitts plays in space well, excellent hand catcher, and back shoulder. He is a plus route runner. Pitts is a prototype space player much like Kelce but with maybe even more WR qualities.

He put up 770 yards and 12 TD's in 8 games.

I would strongly suggest anyone that evaluates this player step out of the confining TE BOX for a moment and look at this player as an actual receiving threat weapon with a TE designation.

This player is as close to a lock top 10 pick as I have seen in years. I would a lay a grand in Vegas he goes top 15 overall in the NFL draft.

He is a very high floor unlimited ceiling player in a few years IMO. Draft him if you can is my advice.

Yes, Pitts was impressive. I hope I am proven wrong by him, but I think I will take the side of past data and pass on him with my early first round picks. This happens every year with the top one or two TEs. The likelihood of Pitts hitting and being more valuable than the other RBs and WRs in the top of the first round is slim to none. Again...I hope I am wrong. If Pitts is there at the 1.09 slot, I'll take him.

[abloom]

Where would you take Pitts in SF / 2TE?

Also is there a realistic top 10 team you think if pitts goes to he would likely succeed? And is there a top 10 team that is likely to take him that you would hate?

Depends how many teams but somewhere from 1.01 to 1.03 depending on number of teams.