Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[McCafsteez]

Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, many others were year 2 (although I think Kelce didn't play year 1, right?)

I think if you wait until they breakout, especially if they hit Tier 1, it's too late to buy them because you don't want to overspend and then have them bust. High risk high reward draft pick.

Yes, but they were not the highest ranked TEs in their class. Just to throw some ranks out there from random dynasty sites (mostly ESPN). Essentially anyone ranked in the first two rounds of rookie rankings were not worth drafting. Every big hitting TE (minus Ertz) could have been grabbed in the 3 round or later. No TE ranked in the top 24 (first two rounds) have not had a stud fantasy football career, except for Zach Ertz who broke out in year 3. All of the big name TEs were 30th overall or worse in their respective draft class. If this doesn't prove to all of you to NOT draft Kyle Pitts with your early first, I don't know what will. My point is that it is literally a crapshoot of who will be the next big TE.

2013
-Zach Ertz 20th
-Travis Kelce 30th

2014
-Eric Ebron 10th
-Austin Seferian-Jenkins 22nd
-Richard Rodgers 27th

2015
-Black Bell 19th
-MyCole Pruitt 28th
-Darren Waller 35th

2016
-Hunter Henry 17th
-Tyler Higbee 30th
-Austin Hooper 31st

2017
-O.J. Howard 9th
-David Njoku 10th
-Evan Engram 11th
-Gerald Everett 21st
-Adam Shaheen 40th
-Jonnu Smith 44th
-George Kittle 45th

2018
-Mike Gesicki 19th
-Hayden Hurst 27th
-Mark Andrews 28th
-Dallas Goedert 32nd
-Ian Thomas 49th
-Dalton Schultz 50th
-Chris Herndon IV 51st

2019
-T.J. Hockenson 9th
-Noah Fant 14th
- Irv Smith Jr. 24th
-Jace Sternberger 31st
-Dawson Knox 32nd

2020
-Adam Trautman 37th

out of curiosity, what happens if you look at the same years, and look at wrs the same way? I feel like the first year production in WRs is relatively new. RBs (and QBs in SF) are the first round picks most likely to contribute year 1, then its WR and finally TE. Though its important to note that not all TEs are create equal.

Okay, yes, great point. So most WRs take at least a year to hit minus a few. TEs typically break out in their year 3. So, by this data and logic, taking Pitts at the 1.01-1.05 is a huge mistake because he likely won't hit until the third year. Well, actually this data proves that he is likely to not hit at all since the heavy hitting TEs are essentially random and can be taken in the 3rd round or later. If an owner is incredibly worried about filling the TE position and contending, draft the potential stud RB (or QB for SF) and trade said player or the pick for a top TE +. Most people's contending window is less than three years. So, why would we draft Pitts at the 1.03 when the data proves that we wont hit until minimum of 3 years?

The 2019 and 2020 rookie class actually had an insane amount of RBs and WRs hit in the first round. Going off memory, I would rather have the players not bolded below. (These ranks were pulled from ESPN). You have a GREAT shot of hitting on a RB and WR with picks 1.01-1.05.

2019:
1. Jacobs
2. Montgomery
3. Sanders
4. N'Keal Harry - Bust
5. AJ Brown
6. JJAW - Bust
7. DK
8. Kyler Murray
9. T.J. Hockenson
10. Andy Isabella - Bust
11. Marquise Brown - Semi-Bust
12. Deebo Samuel

2020
1. CEH
2. Taylor
3. Lamb
4. Jeudy
5. Dobbins
6. Swift
7. Akers
8. Ruggs
9. Higgins
10. Jefferson
11. Aiyuk
12. Reagor

[Ice]

Think Gronk scored 10 TD's as a rookie if memory serves.

This is dynasty not redraft. One thing to have an opinion today some may think archaic given how teams are using TE's but be sure an own it if he breaks out.

I draft TE's based on where I see their 3rd year production.

Anyone that has tried to buy a Kelce type is brave enough to draft a Pitts in round 1.

[dynastyninja]

Think Gronk scored 10 TD's as a rookie if memory serves.

This is dynasty not redraft. One thing to have an opinion today some may think archaic given how teams are using TE's but be sure an own it if he breaks out.

I draft TE's based on where I see their 3rd year production.

Anyone that has tried to buy a Kelce type is brave enough to draft a Pitts in round 1.

Not commenting on Pitts specifically, but the strategy of spending a high first on a player who won't give you substantial production until year 3 is not a good one in my opinion. Dynasty or not.

[McCafsteez]

Think Gronk scored 10 TD's as a rookie if memory serves.

This is dynasty not redraft. One thing to have an opinion today some may think archaic given how teams are using TE's but be sure an own it if he breaks out.

I draft TE's based on where I see their 3rd year production.

Anyone that has tried to buy a Kelce type is brave enough to draft a Pitts in round 1.

Not commenting on Pitts specifically, but the strategy of spending a high first on a player who won't give you substantial production until year 3 is not a good one in my opinion. Dynasty or not.

x2

Why not go for immediate production in the draft and then trade the equivalent of what you would have spent drafting a TE to trade for a proven Te?

[abloom]

Okay, yes, great point. So most WRs take at least a year to hit minus a few. TEs typically break out in their year 3. So, by this data and logic, taking Pitts at the 1.01-1.05 is a huge mistake because he likely won't hit until the third year. Well, actually this data proves that he is likely to not hit at all since the heavy hitting TEs are essentially random and can be taken in the 3rd round or later. If an owner is incredibly worried about filling the TE position and contending, draft the potential stud RB (or QB for SF) and trade said player or the pick for a top TE +. Most people's contending window is less than three years. So, why would we draft Pitts at the 1.03 when the data proves that we wont hit until minimum of 3 years?

The 2019 and 2020 rookie class actually had an insane amount of RBs and WRs hit in the first round. Going off memory, I would rather have the players not bolded below. (These ranks were pulled from ESPN). You have a GREAT shot of hitting on a RB and WR with picks 1.01-1.05.

2019:
1. Jacobs
2. Montgomery
3. Sanders
4. N'Keal Harry - Bust
5. AJ Brown
6. JJAW - Bust
7. DK
8. Kyler Murray
9. T.J. Hockenson
10. Andy Isabella - Bust
11. Marquise Brown - Semi-Bust
12. Deebo Samuel

2020
1. CEH
2. Taylor
3. Lamb
4. Jeudy
5. Dobbins
6. Swift
7. Akers
8. Ruggs
9. Higgins
10. Jefferson
11. Aiyuk
12. Reagor

(1) I don't think Pitts should be taken before 1.06 (as of now) in a 1QB (non-2TE) league. However, that's based on the talent of the other 5 people I'd have ahead of him, not due to him not breaking out before year 3. If the argument is don't pay a premium now because he won't be a starter for 3 years, then that implies that you will have to be able to acquire him before his year 3. The question then becomes, what will the price to acquire Pitts be between your leagues rookie draft, and his year 3.

(2) I'm not going to ask you to do my work for me, but I did say that it hasn't been until the last couple years that WRs have been hitting. As I said, I think this is a recent development, but don't hold me to that.

(3) I'd rather have Pitts than those you mentioned in addition to Deebo, and M Brown.

So the question now becomes when does it make sense to take Pitts earlier than, lets say 1.06. Simply, in 2TE leagues I would easily have him in the top 3 (1.01 in 1QB, 2TE; 1.02-1.03 in 12+team SF, 2TE).

[McCafsteez]

Okay, yes, great point. So most WRs take at least a year to hit minus a few. TEs typically break out in their year 3. So, by this data and logic, taking Pitts at the 1.01-1.05 is a huge mistake because he likely won't hit until the third year. Well, actually this data proves that he is likely to not hit at all since the heavy hitting TEs are essentially random and can be taken in the 3rd round or later. If an owner is incredibly worried about filling the TE position and contending, draft the potential stud RB (or QB for SF) and trade said player or the pick for a top TE +. Most people's contending window is less than three years. So, why would we draft Pitts at the 1.03 when the data proves that we wont hit until minimum of 3 years?

The 2019 and 2020 rookie class actually had an insane amount of RBs and WRs hit in the first round. Going off memory, I would rather have the players not bolded below. (These ranks were pulled from ESPN). You have a GREAT shot of hitting on a RB and WR with picks 1.01-1.05.

2019:
1. Jacobs
2. Montgomery
3. Sanders
4. N'Keal Harry - Bust
5. AJ Brown
6. JJAW - Bust
7. DK
8. Kyler Murray
9. T.J. Hockenson
10. Andy Isabella - Bust
11. Marquise Brown - Semi-Bust
12. Deebo Samuel

2020
1. CEH
2. Taylor
3. Lamb
4. Jeudy
5. Dobbins
6. Swift
7. Akers
8. Ruggs
9. Higgins
10. Jefferson
11. Aiyuk
12. Reagor

(1) I don't think Pitts should be taken before 1.06 (as of now) in a 1QB (non-2TE) league. However, that's based on the talent of the other 5 people I'd have ahead of him, not due to him not breaking out before year 3. If the argument is don't pay a premium now because he won't be a starter for 3 years, then that implies that you will have to be able to acquire him before his year 3. The question then becomes, what will the price to acquire Pitts be between your leagues rookie draft, and his year 3.

(2) I'm not going to ask you to do my work for me, but I did say that it hasn't been until the last couple years that WRs have been hitting. As I said, I think this is a recent development, but don't hold me to that.

(3) I'd rather have Pitts than those you mentioned in addition to Deebo, and M Brown.

So the question now becomes when does it make sense to take Pitts earlier than, lets say 1.06. Simply, in 2TE leagues I would easily have him in the top 3 (1.01 in 1QB, 2TE; 1.02-1.03 in 12+team SF, 2TE).

Yes, all great points here. I have a strong feeling that you could trade for Pitts after year one or two for less than what you paid for him in this year's draft. Hockenson went at like the 1.09 in his respective rookie draft in on of my leagues. I could have acquired him for a 2nd round pick (1QB No TE PREM) because the owner was disappointed he didn't hit right away. Now, even after a pretty solid year, I could still buy him for a pair of 2nds or even a late 1st. It would be worth it for me to pay that 1.09 on him now since he has integrated into the league and has a way higher chance to produce as a top TE now than two years ago.

[Bronco Billy]

x2

Why not go for immediate production in the draft and then trade the equivalent of what you would have spent drafting a TE to trade for a proven Te?

Okay, so what are you prepared to pay to get Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, or Waller on your roster, because it’s been my experience that it takes a substantial overpay to pry them loose from their current owner - if you can at all.

[Oddball456]

I have the 1.08 in a 10 team 1 TE no premium and Pitts is who I want at that spot. But looking back over my draft picks from the past 10 years, something like 75% of my first round picks have been busts or close to it. So if I end up with Pitts and he busts, oh well. Good chance whomever else I would taken could have busted as well.

[abloom]

Okay, yes, great point. So most WRs take at least a year to hit minus a few. TEs typically break out in their year 3. So, by this data and logic, taking Pitts at the 1.01-1.05 is a huge mistake because he likely won't hit until the third year. Well, actually this data proves that he is likely to not hit at all since the heavy hitting TEs are essentially random and can be taken in the 3rd round or later. If an owner is incredibly worried about filling the TE position and contending, draft the potential stud RB (or QB for SF) and trade said player or the pick for a top TE +. Most people's contending window is less than three years. So, why would we draft Pitts at the 1.03 when the data proves that we wont hit until minimum of 3 years?

The 2019 and 2020 rookie class actually had an insane amount of RBs and WRs hit in the first round. Going off memory, I would rather have the players not bolded below. (These ranks were pulled from ESPN). You have a GREAT shot of hitting on a RB and WR with picks 1.01-1.05.

2019:
1. Jacobs
2. Montgomery
3. Sanders
4. N'Keal Harry - Bust
5. AJ Brown
6. JJAW - Bust
7. DK
8. Kyler Murray
9. T.J. Hockenson
10. Andy Isabella - Bust
11. Marquise Brown - Semi-Bust
12. Deebo Samuel

2020
1. CEH
2. Taylor
3. Lamb
4. Jeudy
5. Dobbins
6. Swift
7. Akers
8. Ruggs
9. Higgins
10. Jefferson
11. Aiyuk
12. Reagor

(1) I don't think Pitts should be taken before 1.06 (as of now) in a 1QB (non-2TE) league. However, that's based on the talent of the other 5 people I'd have ahead of him, not due to him not breaking out before year 3. If the argument is don't pay a premium now because he won't be a starter for 3 years, then that implies that you will have to be able to acquire him before his year 3. The question then becomes, what will the price to acquire Pitts be between your leagues rookie draft, and his year 3.

(2) I'm not going to ask you to do my work for me, but I did say that it hasn't been until the last couple years that WRs have been hitting. As I said, I think this is a recent development, but don't hold me to that.

(3) I'd rather have Pitts than those you mentioned in addition to Deebo, and M Brown.

So the question now becomes when does it make sense to take Pitts earlier than, lets say 1.06. Simply, in 2TE leagues I would easily have him in the top 3 (1.01 in 1QB, 2TE; 1.02-1.03 in 12+team SF, 2TE).

Yes, all great points here. I have a strong feeling that you could trade for Pitts after year one or two for less than what you paid for him in this year's draft. Hockenson went at like the 1.09 in his respective rookie draft in on of my leagues. I could have acquired him for a 2nd round pick (1QB No TE PREM) because the owner was disappointed he didn't hit right away. Now, even after a pretty solid year, I could still buy him for a pair of 2nds or even a late 1st. It would be worth it for me to pay that 1.09 on him now since he has integrated into the league and has a way higher chance to produce as a top TE now than two years ago.

That's going to be league dependent, and I think is a better argument for sticking with players in position groups that generally take longer to develop than expecting them to have year 1 production.


edited this into the other post, but I think you replied before i got the edit in:
p.s. I think we are pretty much saying the same thing, just in different ways. Don't see him as a top half pick, but still worth taking a shot on in back half of 1st.

[saw061600]

I don't think we can look at fantasy draft ranking and ADP alone to determine when a player position should be drafted. I do think we should look at hit rates of draft position/player position. So, what is the success rate of first round ADP RB/WR/TE? I own shares of Kelce and Andrews everywhere and also had shares of Ertz in most leagues but I didn't pay a first for any of them at anytime (draft or during first season). So while I philosophically agree that we probably should NOT draft TEs in the first round, I don't agree with the reasoning that it's because it takes a year or so for them to develop.

Personally, I'm not likely to draft Pitts for the same reasons I don't draft IDP in the first round: drafting a RB/WR (QB in SPFLX) offers far greater potential for a jackpot payout then a first round pick of a TE (who you can often get during season 1 for less than if you had drafted them yourself).

[Pac_Eddy]

I love that there are now two Kyle Pitts threads going.

Man, we need the NFL draft to arrive soon.

[Bronco Billy]

I love that there are now two Kyle Pitts threads going.

Man, we need the NFL draft to arrive soon.

Pretty good debate about what could be a generational talent at a traditionally less than optimal position value.

[McCafsteez]

I love that there are now two Kyle Pitts threads going.

Man, we need the NFL draft to arrive soon.

Pretty good debate about what could be a generational talent at a traditionally less than optimal position value.

& that's the thing...it's either Pitts will be unbelievable, or he will be another statistic of highly rated TEs not panning out! LOL!! No middle ground.

[McCafsteez]

(1) I don't think Pitts should be taken before 1.06 (as of now) in a 1QB (non-2TE) league. However, that's based on the talent of the other 5 people I'd have ahead of him, not due to him not breaking out before year 3. If the argument is don't pay a premium now because he won't be a starter for 3 years, then that implies that you will have to be able to acquire him before his year 3. The question then becomes, what will the price to acquire Pitts be between your leagues rookie draft, and his year 3.

(2) I'm not going to ask you to do my work for me, but I did say that it hasn't been until the last couple years that WRs have been hitting. As I said, I think this is a recent development, but don't hold me to that.

(3) I'd rather have Pitts than those you mentioned in addition to Deebo, and M Brown.

So the question now becomes when does it make sense to take Pitts earlier than, lets say 1.06. Simply, in 2TE leagues I would easily have him in the top 3 (1.01 in 1QB, 2TE; 1.02-1.03 in 12+team SF, 2TE).

Yes, all great points here. I have a strong feeling that you could trade for Pitts after year one or two for less than what you paid for him in this year's draft. Hockenson went at like the 1.09 in his respective rookie draft in on of my leagues. I could have acquired him for a 2nd round pick (1QB No TE PREM) because the owner was disappointed he didn't hit right away. Now, even after a pretty solid year, I could still buy him for a pair of 2nds or even a late 1st. It would be worth it for me to pay that 1.09 on him now since he has integrated into the league and has a way higher chance to produce as a top TE now than two years ago.

That's going to be league dependent, and I think is a better argument for sticking with players in position groups that generally take longer to develop than expecting them to have year 1 production.


edited this into the other post, but I think you replied before i got the edit in:
p.s. I think we are pretty much saying the same thing, just in different ways. Don't see him as a top half pick, but still worth taking a shot on in back half of 1st.

Agreed! I think taking Pitts with a late 1st is a whole lot better than using a top 5 pick on him.

[McCafsteez]

x2

Why not go for immediate production in the draft and then trade the equivalent of what you would have spent drafting a TE to trade for a proven Te?

Okay, so what are you prepared to pay to get Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, or Waller on your roster, because it’s been my experience that it takes a substantial overpay to pry them loose from their current owner - if you can at all.

That's not my point. Every TE you named was ranked 30th or worst in their respective dynasty rookie ranking. Here we are talking about blowing a top pick on Pitts. But to answer your question, yes, I would rather pay up for a proven TE stud than risk a top pick on an unknown TE.