Dak Prescott is a Fantastic Buy Candidate in 2QB/Superflex
Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:53 am
Anyone playing in 2QB or Superflex leagues will tell you, buying top end QB talent that is young and elite is extremely difficult 95% of the time. I wanted to start this post with the obvious caveat; if someone is currently out of contention then it's very unlikely they would be willing to move Prescott for any kind of realistic discount. However week 13 can sometimes be a make or break time for someone and they can decide that they want to play for this year, it's possible a lesser QB + someone having an excellent season could draw Prescott away from them for a chance at a title.
Now that the initial premise has been established for Dak's buy window, I want to further analyze Dak as a player and why I think it's likely he becomes a top 3 dynasty QB (some had him there pre-injury, but we've also seen the emergence of Herbert, Allen, etc. and his health might be coming into question pushing him to QB5, 6, 7, 8). First the question many people have is: will Dak's injury limit his mobility and diminish his athleticism? https://dynastydraftroom.com/what-to-ma ... r-dynasty/ Does an excellent job evaluating his injury, but the long story short is the following players have had similar injuries and rebounded completely fine:
-Darren Sproles in his second year (didn't affect his explosiveness long term and happened a while ago leaving the door open for better and improved surgical methods today)
-OBJ (Rookie year, didn't slow him down)
-Paul George / Gordon Hayward (Both George and Hayward require a lot of up/down force on their ankle constantly and haven't been hobbled by this)
and then the one many compare:
- Alex Smith (Note: This is not an Alex Smith incident, Alex Smith's complications were not from the injury but the infections associated with recovery. We've already had doctors say no infections have occurred and Dak is ahead of schedule in his recovery)
Now that we've gotten through the initial premise of injury lets discuss the season Dak was having as a fantasy asset and some of the general gripes people have historically had with him. These are his following finishes since entering the league
2016: QB 7
2017: QB 10
2018: QB 14
2019: QB 2 For a further deep dive from an analytics perspective:
4,902 Yards [Ranks 2nd]
30 TDs [4th]
99.7 Rating [10th]
79.5 Rating with Pressure [8th]
3.7 Sack % [4th]
1.8% Int Rate [13th]
76.1% Adjusted Completion Percentage [14th]
2020: Fantasy Points through week 5 (Variance based on scoring expected but 4 Pt/TD): 17.64, 39.8, 33.48, 39.28, 12.94 (Injured in 3rd quarter)
Now, elephant in the room from these games; was Dak possibly taking advantage of softer matchups with the exception of the Rams week one? Absolutely, it should be considered. Did Dak throw a ton because that defense was god awful? While both of those statements are true, it doesn't mean this level of play can't continue; he was QB 2 with a better defensive cast in 2019. In 2020, Dak was averaging 32.55 PPG in the 4 games he finished with stats of 1690 Passing yards, 9 Pass TD / 3 INT ratio, 86 rushing yards, 3 rushing tds, 1 receiving TD. What I like best about these stats is the fact that Dak didn't need his legs to be an elite fantasy asset. As I look into the tier of really great, elite dynasty QBs, what everyone notices is Kyler, Lamar, and to a lesser extent Allen have an extremely safe floor because of their rushing.
What we've learned in the dynasty community from continued experience is rushing makes elite QBs but it doesn't necessarily equal sustained year over year success without an improved ability to actually throw the football. Kyler is having an electric year, I wouldn't necessarily say move Dak over him, but my point is there is a lot of reasons to expect Dak to be a more consistent fantasy producer moving forward compared to Lamar and Allen who are near the elite tier but are much less consistent throwers. I would rather have Dak's level of mobility while being closer to Mahomes level of air production (maybe this is overly simplistic because no one is Mahomes, but that's the spectrum I'm looking at)
While my premise around buying Dak has shown the reasons I like him moving forward, I want to discuss his trajectory and how he's already improved in a manner to think he will continue to become a better real life QB as well.
Some of the inconsistencies that have been noted as reasons the Cowboys shouldn't extend Dak and why he isn't or wasn't elite in 2019:
-Ability to process reads and "bust zones" (Dak was considered inconsistent at doing this and sometimes the wrong read lead to turnovers)
-Eye manipulation (Ability to not "lock onto a target" pre-snap and immediately after the snap therefor leading to giving away your play to the defense)
-Not taking what's "given to him" (I don't see this as something that was a major red flag, but I did notice some using this as a critique against him in 2019 so I feel in all fairness it should be included)
Looking into 2020, the tape says Dak was improving significantly in these areas. Although it was a small sample size:
-Dak's zone reads and eye manipulation became massively improved
-He was better at looking off safeties to make throws easier for himself after noticing pre-read that a player would be wide open (For example: breaking the seam on cover 2 after his receiver was deep to make an easy touchdown).
-Dak also became better at ripping it into tight coverage (if you look at the window he threaded it to Amari in against the Browns it's a great example and this was an area people have had gripes with him about in the past)
-Dak constantly was under pressure to score every possession but didn't become sloppy (While this playstyle can force turnovers and incompletions, Dak didn't succumb to this in my opinion)
So overall, I think there's a lot to be excited about with Dak. He's only 27 (will be 28 next year) and can still continue to tweak and improve his game. He has excellent mechanics and is an extremely hard worker so I can envision he continues to improve on the areas people see as deficiencies. I think it's very likely the Cowboys resign him and his elite weapons continue allowing him to play at a high level. If the Cowboys don't resign him, the Colts have a ton of cap and could go after him; while their weapons aren't the caliber of Dallas, it's likely they bring in another receiver and they have an elite line so this wouldn't even be a big hit to Dak's fantasy value in my eyes. Frank Reich is also a great coach to continue developing Dak as a player.
I have Dak as my QB 3 in dynasty moving forward (Behind Mahomes, Kyler), but peoples perception of his injury and team uncertainty might allow you to get him at QB6-8 prices. Add in the fact that possible contenders may be more willing to move a near immovable asset when healthy and I feel the time to buy is NOW. Hopefully this topic can generate some good discussion and possibly allow people to explore trading for Dak while the buy window is still open.
Thanks for the read!
Now that the initial premise has been established for Dak's buy window, I want to further analyze Dak as a player and why I think it's likely he becomes a top 3 dynasty QB (some had him there pre-injury, but we've also seen the emergence of Herbert, Allen, etc. and his health might be coming into question pushing him to QB5, 6, 7, 8). First the question many people have is: will Dak's injury limit his mobility and diminish his athleticism? https://dynastydraftroom.com/what-to-ma ... r-dynasty/ Does an excellent job evaluating his injury, but the long story short is the following players have had similar injuries and rebounded completely fine:
-Darren Sproles in his second year (didn't affect his explosiveness long term and happened a while ago leaving the door open for better and improved surgical methods today)
-OBJ (Rookie year, didn't slow him down)
-Paul George / Gordon Hayward (Both George and Hayward require a lot of up/down force on their ankle constantly and haven't been hobbled by this)
and then the one many compare:
- Alex Smith (Note: This is not an Alex Smith incident, Alex Smith's complications were not from the injury but the infections associated with recovery. We've already had doctors say no infections have occurred and Dak is ahead of schedule in his recovery)
Now that we've gotten through the initial premise of injury lets discuss the season Dak was having as a fantasy asset and some of the general gripes people have historically had with him. These are his following finishes since entering the league
2016: QB 7
2017: QB 10
2018: QB 14
2019: QB 2 For a further deep dive from an analytics perspective:
4,902 Yards [Ranks 2nd]
30 TDs [4th]
99.7 Rating [10th]
79.5 Rating with Pressure [8th]
3.7 Sack % [4th]
1.8% Int Rate [13th]
76.1% Adjusted Completion Percentage [14th]
2020: Fantasy Points through week 5 (Variance based on scoring expected but 4 Pt/TD): 17.64, 39.8, 33.48, 39.28, 12.94 (Injured in 3rd quarter)
Now, elephant in the room from these games; was Dak possibly taking advantage of softer matchups with the exception of the Rams week one? Absolutely, it should be considered. Did Dak throw a ton because that defense was god awful? While both of those statements are true, it doesn't mean this level of play can't continue; he was QB 2 with a better defensive cast in 2019. In 2020, Dak was averaging 32.55 PPG in the 4 games he finished with stats of 1690 Passing yards, 9 Pass TD / 3 INT ratio, 86 rushing yards, 3 rushing tds, 1 receiving TD. What I like best about these stats is the fact that Dak didn't need his legs to be an elite fantasy asset. As I look into the tier of really great, elite dynasty QBs, what everyone notices is Kyler, Lamar, and to a lesser extent Allen have an extremely safe floor because of their rushing.
What we've learned in the dynasty community from continued experience is rushing makes elite QBs but it doesn't necessarily equal sustained year over year success without an improved ability to actually throw the football. Kyler is having an electric year, I wouldn't necessarily say move Dak over him, but my point is there is a lot of reasons to expect Dak to be a more consistent fantasy producer moving forward compared to Lamar and Allen who are near the elite tier but are much less consistent throwers. I would rather have Dak's level of mobility while being closer to Mahomes level of air production (maybe this is overly simplistic because no one is Mahomes, but that's the spectrum I'm looking at)
While my premise around buying Dak has shown the reasons I like him moving forward, I want to discuss his trajectory and how he's already improved in a manner to think he will continue to become a better real life QB as well.
Some of the inconsistencies that have been noted as reasons the Cowboys shouldn't extend Dak and why he isn't or wasn't elite in 2019:
-Ability to process reads and "bust zones" (Dak was considered inconsistent at doing this and sometimes the wrong read lead to turnovers)
-Eye manipulation (Ability to not "lock onto a target" pre-snap and immediately after the snap therefor leading to giving away your play to the defense)
-Not taking what's "given to him" (I don't see this as something that was a major red flag, but I did notice some using this as a critique against him in 2019 so I feel in all fairness it should be included)
Looking into 2020, the tape says Dak was improving significantly in these areas. Although it was a small sample size:
-Dak's zone reads and eye manipulation became massively improved
-He was better at looking off safeties to make throws easier for himself after noticing pre-read that a player would be wide open (For example: breaking the seam on cover 2 after his receiver was deep to make an easy touchdown).
-Dak also became better at ripping it into tight coverage (if you look at the window he threaded it to Amari in against the Browns it's a great example and this was an area people have had gripes with him about in the past)
-Dak constantly was under pressure to score every possession but didn't become sloppy (While this playstyle can force turnovers and incompletions, Dak didn't succumb to this in my opinion)
So overall, I think there's a lot to be excited about with Dak. He's only 27 (will be 28 next year) and can still continue to tweak and improve his game. He has excellent mechanics and is an extremely hard worker so I can envision he continues to improve on the areas people see as deficiencies. I think it's very likely the Cowboys resign him and his elite weapons continue allowing him to play at a high level. If the Cowboys don't resign him, the Colts have a ton of cap and could go after him; while their weapons aren't the caliber of Dallas, it's likely they bring in another receiver and they have an elite line so this wouldn't even be a big hit to Dak's fantasy value in my eyes. Frank Reich is also a great coach to continue developing Dak as a player.
I have Dak as my QB 3 in dynasty moving forward (Behind Mahomes, Kyler), but peoples perception of his injury and team uncertainty might allow you to get him at QB6-8 prices. Add in the fact that possible contenders may be more willing to move a near immovable asset when healthy and I feel the time to buy is NOW. Hopefully this topic can generate some good discussion and possibly allow people to explore trading for Dak while the buy window is still open.
Thanks for the read!