Dynasty League Football Forum

Ended up trading him for ETN, Mac Jones and presumably a late 2022 1st (SF, TE premium, scaling ppr)

Sriracha wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:30 pm Ended up trading him for ETN, Mac Jones and presumably a late 2022 1st (SF, TE premium, scaling ppr)

I say that's cashing in on the hype.

stoneghost28 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:01 pm I also need to be comfortable at TE, and my TE position tends to be either stocked with Hockenson/Fant/Goedert, or with a grab bag of super cheap upside plays (Trautman, Everett, Harrison Bryant etc and now long lost hopes like Oliver, and Warring who are edging towards pipe dream status, especially Oliver).

Had to laugh when I read this, because that's exactly where my Team 1. is sitting.

And I have the 1.05, 1.12 in that league so Pitts may or may not be in play early. Frankly, I'm hoping someone takes him in front of me so I don't have to be tempted. And of course, that would mean I might get lucky with who falls to me.

Sitting in that 1.03-1.05 range of picks is a very interesting place to be in 2021.

I'm attempting to trade out of my 1.04 slot. 1.03 could pull the trigger on Pitts and leave me with Harris/ETN to choose from, but I don't see it happening. I won't be mad with Pitts for the next 10+ years, but I'd rather cash in the hype for something proven than take the risk myself.

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 7:01 am I'm attempting to trade out of my 1.04 slot. 1.03 could pull the trigger on Pitts and leave me with Harris/ETN to choose from, but I don't see it happening. I won't be mad with Pitts for the next 10+ years, but I'd rather cash in the hype for something proven than take the risk myself.

So when it turns out not to be Hype......then what?

Then I eat my cheerios for breakfast and continue on with the haul I'll get for the pick.

Shoreline Steamers wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 4:01 pm

stoneghost28 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:01 pm I also need to be comfortable at TE, and my TE position tends to be either stocked with Hockenson/Fant/Goedert, or with a grab bag of super cheap upside plays (Trautman, Everett, Harrison Bryant etc and now long lost hopes like Oliver, and Warring who are edging towards pipe dream status, especially Oliver).

Had to laugh when I read this, because that's exactly where my Team 1. is sitting.

And I have the 1.05, 1.12 in that league so Pitts may or may not be in play early. Frankly, I'm hoping someone takes him in front of me so I don't have to be tempted. And of course, that would mean I might get lucky with who falls to me.

Sitting in that 1.03-1.05 range of picks is a very interesting place to be in 2021.

No doubt. End of the day, I'm more interested in trading out than taking Pitts. I tend to agree with McDowell's point that if Pitts is going to go 1.04, better to just try and trade for Kittle considering the cost, knowing Kittle is already a hit then take the risk when Kittle's cost is basically about 1.02/1.03 right now, and Pitts is already going 1.04ish (in truth, it seems like he's going really anywhere between 1.01 and 1.07 and the average is 1.04, but it isn't the same kind of average you might have seen with Cook and Mixon 1.04/1.05 in '17, or Sanders 1.03-1.04, or swift/Dobbins 1.04-1.05 last year, where these guys nearly always went at that slot, or just a pick on either side of it. Pitts is going all over the place, even sometimes 1.01. So there's no certainty, or confidence at all that he's there at any given slot other than 1.01.

Since I won't pay that price, I don't care personally, I may talk myself into Pitts at 1.03-1.04 down the line, I've seen compelling arguments on both sides which for me, basically amount to:

Pro Argument: His value seems hyper insulated, the hype is almost certainly not gonna die on him unless a catastrophe happens. He is the best TE prospect to go this high in 17 years even if the last two catch first TE's to go that high didn't live up to the hype (KWII and Shockey), TE is a barren wasteland and if you hit on TE, you have a MASSIVE advantage in performance game to game.

Con Argument: Historical trend lines are that none of these guys hit expectations. The cost of acquisition is as if he's already a locked in top 2 TE. Waller has shown that you can actually get an elite TE for little cost. Once upon a time Kelce wasn't hyped crazily either, and Kittle was a day 3 pick that generally wasnt drafted until round 3 or 4 in '17 rookie drafts. Should you really use all that capital on a TE considering the risk when Chase seems a much better and safer pick, and when getting RB production is so hard, and this draft and next years are horrible at RB, perhaps get the RB? Add to that that TE production typically only goes online in year 2 or 3 and that's if they hit....and again, if you want TE production, why not just pain a fraction more and be sure of it with Kittle or less and be sure of it with Kelce? Matt Ryan is playing what is it, year 14? He's also beginning to potentially show signs of wear and tear and the team is stuck cap wise, so not a lot can be done to show what direction their headed at QB until late '22.


Anyway, I have a hard time justifying taking him. I also find some of the pro arguments compelling, especially if the value insulation holds up, I remain someone whose not sure what to do and across the 14 Dynasty/RSO leagues I run, I have a lot of picks in that 1.01-1.05 zone. Thirteen in all. I could get him in plenty of leagues if I want. I'd just prefer Etienne, Chase or Williams (via trade down). I'm still open to it though.

He went 1.04 to the guy who has FIVE first round picks. He took Lawrence and Harris at 1 and 2 (Superflex) and then took Pitts at 1.04. I tried to trade up to get him, but he wanted my 1.07 and 2022 first. Too rich for my blood.

I ended up moving up from 1.07 to 1.05 to get Chase.

wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:22 pm
I ended up moving up from 1.07 to 1.05 to get Chase.

well played

murphysxm wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:37 pm

wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:22 pm
I ended up moving up from 1.07 to 1.05 to get Chase.

well played

I'd be stoked with that outcome in my league. Congratulations on your excellent hand of fate!

wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:22 pm He went 1.04 to the guy who has FIVE first round picks. He took Lawrence and Harris at 1 and 2 (Superflex) and then took Pitts at 1.04. I tried to trade up to get him, but he wanted my 1.07 and 2022 first. Too rich for my blood.

I ended up moving up from 1.07 to 1.05 to get Chase.

I find it more interesting that only 2 qbs (or 1, depending on who went 1.03) went top 5 in your sf. I have a few SF leagues in which my pick is around 7 or 8, would personally love it if some of the qbs dropped like that.

Not that I don't like Harris, Pitts and Chase, but I'd have a tough time taking them over some of the QBs this year.

wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:22 pm He went 1.04 to the guy who has FIVE first round picks. He took Lawrence and Harris at 1 and 2 (Superflex) and then took Pitts at 1.04. I tried to trade up to get him, but he wanted my 1.07 and 2022 first. Too rich for my blood.

I ended up moving up from 1.07 to 1.05 to get Chase.

Sounds good but what did you add to the 1,7

I moved up from 1.08 to 1.05 ( i know i overpaid, i moved 1.08.1.09 and a 22 first for 1.05). I did this because im just not all that high on anyone after the top 5. I also originally did this to get Javonte, BUT the more i hope and dream and think about my league i see how highly RBS are drafted. So now im seriously hoping this trend continues and Javonte goes in the top 4 so pitts or chase fall to me at 1.05. I understand that historically this position being drafted this highly isnt great BUT it really just seems like thats one of those random weird "facts" that doesnt really matter. Its too random of a stat to rely on, sort of like the "Lions RBs never do anything so im not gonna draft a lions RB" These "historical trends" get broken and im fully expecting pitts to be it. He was a very high first pick drafted to a great situation. Julio is slowing down and Pitts is going to provide that big body. I Love pitts and expect him to contribute this season. Cant wait and keep hoping he falls to me

Sriracha wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:30 pm Ended up trading him for ETN, Mac Jones and presumably a late 2022 1st (SF, TE premium, scaling ppr)

Wait.. so in SF you got a good QB prospect, a rookie RB that is easily going in the first AND another first for... a rookie TE?

Good for you man, that is insane value to me, even in TE premium. (And I love Pitts and will be taking him at 1.01/1.02 in 1qb TE premium leagues. But in SF that is still just crazy value to me)

Traded 1.07 + 2.07 + Claypool (not big on him, esp with Ben fading)
for 1.05 + 2.05

Took Chase at 1.05

Our draft for QBs all four went in the top seven

1. Lawrence
2. Harris
3. Lance
4. Pitts
5. Chase (me)
6. Wilson
7. Fields
8. ETN