The Kyle "Is not the" Pitts Thread

[murphysxm]

In the 2014 draft where Ebron went in the 1st, Bishop Sankey was a consensus top 3 pick, Jordan Matthews went ahead of Adams and OBJ, We don't draft in a vacuum. I see Pitts as a difference maker at an awful position. He's just not the best TE prospect this year for me. He may be the most dominate non QB in this draft.

[Sriracha]

In the 2014 draft where Ebron went in the 1st, Bishop Sankey was a consensus top 3 pick, Jordan Matthews went ahead of Adams and OBJ, We don't draft in a vacuum. I see Pitts as a difference maker at an awful position. He's just not the best TE prospect this year for me. He may be the most dominate non QB in this draft.

Sure, but the upside that every other position enjoys just isn't there for rookie TEs.. and the floor is just as low.

[briank]

Ebron was widely considered a 1st round dynasty rookie pick. I'd bet he went in the 1st in more drafts than not. His ADP was 1.08/1.09. You can't just throw a guy out of the conversation because you didn't agree with the consensus.

Sure I can, the consensus doesn't make drafting decisions for me. I wanted nothing to do with Ebron in a round 1 scenario because I didn't believe his talent was there. I think Pitts talent belongs.

You can draft however you want. I'm saying you can't throw him out of this debate because of personal feelings. He's absolutely relevant to the conversation.

[murphysxm]

In the 2014 draft where Ebron went in the 1st, Bishop Sankey was a consensus top 3 pick, Jordan Matthews went ahead of Adams and OBJ, We don't draft in a vacuum. I see Pitts as a difference maker at an awful position. He's just not the best TE prospect this year for me. He may be the most dominate non QB in this draft.

Sure, but the upside that every other position enjoys just isn't there for rookie TEs.. and the floor is just as low.

And I agree with this statement for most TE propsects. Pitts is not just another TE prospect, We can agree to disagree that is fine.

[briank]

In the 2014 draft where Ebron went in the 1st, Bishop Sankey was a consensus top 3 pick, Jordan Matthews went ahead of Adams and OBJ, We don't draft in a vacuum. I see Pitts as a difference maker at an awful position. He's just not the best TE prospect this year for me. He may be the most dominate non QB in this draft.

If that is your evaluation of him, go for it.

[Cameron Giles]

And I agree with this statement for most TE propsects. Pitts is not just another TE prospect, We can agree to disagree that is fine.

But, neither was Ebron. He went in the Top-10 in an NFL Draft and ran a 4.6 at 6'4, 250. It's not like he was some bum TE who Detroit reached on.

Ebron's last season in college: 62/973/3 in 13 games.

I love Pitts game, but there have been better or comparable TE prospects than him who've gone in the 1st round and not lived up to their value.

[murphysxm]

And I agree with this statement for most TE propsects. Pitts is not just another TE prospect, We can agree to disagree that is fine.

But, neither was Ebron. He went in the Top-10 in an NFL Draft and ran a 4.6 at 6'4, 250. It's not like he was some bum TE who Detroit reached on.

Ebron's last season in college: 62/973/3 in 13 games.

I love Pitts game, but there have been better or comparable TE prospects than him who've gone in the 1st round and not lived up to their value.

I see the redzone potential much greater for Pitts. He already has 11 this season and had 5 as a sophomore. Pitts had a GAME where he scored more TD's than Ebron had all of his Junior season. Lamding spot will matter for me, but Pitts is going to have an umpact at the next level.

[jenkins.math]

And I agree with this statement for most TE propsects. Pitts is not just another TE prospect, We can agree to disagree that is fine.

But, neither was Ebron. He went in the Top-10 in an NFL Draft and ran a 4.6 at 6'4, 250. It's not like he was some bum TE who Detroit reached on.

Ebron's last season in college: 62/973/3 in 13 games.

I love Pitts game, but there have been better or comparable TE prospects than him who've gone in the 1st round and not lived up to their value.

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

[remedy29]

I see a lot of analysis between 1st and 2nd round TEs grouped together. Do we expect AJ Dillon to produce the same results as Saquon Barkley? Of course not...then why put Drew Sample in any conversation with Pitts?
TEs is also a blocking position, you have to separate the pass catching options from the traditional in line TE.

There simply haven't been too many 1st round TEs. The two most recent seem to be left out of the conversation, Hockenson and Fant still have and retained their dynasty value.

And there certainly hasn't not been to many TEs selected in the top half of the NFL 1st round. Only two, Ebron and Hockenson, both by Detroit. Ebron has disappointed during his career, but he has been relevant.

If another NFL team, with a good GM, picks Pitts in the top 15 picks of the 2021 draft, which is possible, you'd have to take notice and dismiss all prior bias towards the position.

The NFL is changing, a guy like Pitts is exactly the type of player many teams want in today's game.

[briank]

And I agree with this statement for most TE propsects. Pitts is not just another TE prospect, We can agree to disagree that is fine.

But, neither was Ebron. He went in the Top-10 in an NFL Draft and ran a 4.6 at 6'4, 250. It's not like he was some bum TE who Detroit reached on.

Ebron's last season in college: 62/973/3 in 13 games.

I love Pitts game, but there have been better or comparable TE prospects than him who've gone in the 1st round and not lived up to their value.

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

It's not just about Ebron though. It's the whole history of the position.

[Sriracha]

And I agree with this statement for most TE propsects. Pitts is not just another TE prospect, We can agree to disagree that is fine.

But, neither was Ebron. He went in the Top-10 in an NFL Draft and ran a 4.6 at 6'4, 250. It's not like he was some bum TE who Detroit reached on.

Ebron's last season in college: 62/973/3 in 13 games.

I love Pitts game, but there have been better or comparable TE prospects than him who've gone in the 1st round and not lived up to their value.

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

It's just a bad bet to go TE in round 1. They almost always lose value in year 2 and there is just no potential for their value to truly explode outside of TE premium/2TE leagues.

Of course, I'm not advocating to pick someone you don't have faith in over Pitts just because he's a TE... but even in the aforementioned 2014 class with busts galore, there was plenty of value to be had in players taken after the 1.09 (which is where Ebron was going -- OBJ, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Derek Carr.. even Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews saw a nice uptick in value in year 2).

I would rather take the chance on higher upside players and completely bomb than be happy with a fringe TE1 some years in an otherwise bust career. Regardless of how you feel about Pitts, the chances he is both good enough and arrives in a situation to put up Kelce/Kittle numbers is probably lower than one of these talented round 2 WRs becoming the next Adams, Hopkins, Godwin, Golladay, McLaurin, AJB, etc. and the aforementioned floor is just not meaningful.

This combined with the fantasy community as a whole undervaluing rookie TE production makes going TE in round 1 almost universally suboptimal

[briank]

I see a lot of analysis between 1st and 2nd round TEs grouped together. Do we expect AJ Dillon to produce the same results as Saquon Barkley? Of course not...then why put Drew Sample in any conversation with Pitts?
TEs is also a blocking position, you have to separate the pass catching options from the traditional in line TE.

There simply haven't been too many 1st round TEs. The two most recent seem to be left out of the conversation, Hockenson and Fant still have and retained their dynasty value.

And there certainly hasn't not been to many TEs selected in the top half of the NFL 1st round. Only two, Ebron and Hockenson, both by Detroit. Ebron has disappointed during his career, but he has been relevant.

If another NFL team, with a good GM, picks Pitts in the top 15 picks of the 2021 draft, which is possible, you'd have to take notice and dismiss all prior bias towards the position.

The NFL is changing, a guy like Pitts is exactly the type of player many teams want in today's game.

Yeah, I think discussing this in terms of dynasty rookie picks is more relevant than where they were taken in the NFL draft. The story doesn't really change though. Early TE is more risky than the other positions.

[murphysxm]

I would rather take the chance on higher upside players and completely bomb than be happy with a fringe TE1 some years in an otherwise bust career.

I see Pitts as the highest upside non QB in this draft not named Chase. I guess that is the difference, if I thought he would be fringe I would avoid.

[Sriracha]

I would rather take the chance on higher upside players and completely bomb than be happy with a fringe TE1 some years in an otherwise bust career.

I see Pitts as the highest upside non QB in this draft not named Chase. I guess that is the difference, if I thought he would be fringe I would avoid.

I understand liking him as a prospect, but I'm talking about his floor. Most people would value an elite WR over Kittle/Kelce.. my argument is that a fringe TE1 floor just isn't that meaningful in start 1 TE leagues; so it shouldn't be factored into the equation. When looking strictly at time to develop value, and overall upside I wouldn't take a TE prospect in the 1st regardless of what I think about their prospects.

I loved Hock and Fant for instance, but couldn't pull the trigger in 2019. Fant proceeded to have the best rookie TE season in a decade and his value was still roughly the same as when he was drafted.

[jenkins.math]

But, neither was Ebron. He went in the Top-10 in an NFL Draft and ran a 4.6 at 6'4, 250. It's not like he was some bum TE who Detroit reached on.

Ebron's last season in college: 62/973/3 in 13 games.

I love Pitts game, but there have been better or comparable TE prospects than him who've gone in the 1st round and not lived up to their value.

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

It's just a bad bet to go TE in round 1. They almost always lose value in year 2 and there is just no potential for their value to truly explode outside of TE premium/2TE leagues.

Of course, I'm not advocating to pick someone you don't have faith in over Pitts just because he's a TE... but even in the aforementioned 2014 class with busts galore, there was plenty of value to be had in players taken after the 1.09 (which is where Ebron was going -- OBJ, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Derek Carr.. even Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews saw a nice uptick in value in year 2).

I would rather take the chance on higher upside players and completely bomb than be happy with a fringe TE1 some years in an otherwise bust career. Regardless of how you feel about Pitts, the chances he is both good enough and arrives in a situation to put up Kelce/Kittle numbers is probably lower than one of these talented round 2 WRs becoming the next Adams, Hopkins, Godwin, Golladay, McLaurin, AJB, etc. and the aforementioned floor is just not meaningful.

This combined with the fantasy community as a whole undervaluing rookie TE production makes going TE in round 1 almost universally suboptimal

Well this implies that you are willing to buy/sell on these dips. Go look at the Lamar Jackson thread. Nobody was giving up on him this offseason because he was a certainty to improve according to his fans. How do those owners feel now?

Most don't play dynasty that way where they see an uptick on a rookie and then sell. They believe they made the right call and ride it out. Jefferson and Gibson this year are easily worth more than where they were drafted this year but owners aren't selling those guys for a profit. They are holding them and building around them. If you aren't moving those pieces, you as the owner haven't lost any actual value. You may have lost perceived value, but until you sell, you haven't lost anything on that player.