Dynasty League Football Forum

JAG_challam wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:13 pm So let's talk about the ARI backfield some more.

I don't want to have an argumentative, lop-sided "Drake is too good a talent to get benched in favor of Edmonds" conversation, nor do I want to have a, argumentative, lop-sided "Drake is a bum and this will be Edmonds backfield soon" conversation.

But if we look at this objectively, what exactly is here? I feel like Drake is better than he's looked all year. Or at least most of us thought he was. But I also think Edmonds was better than a lot gave him credit for. But maybe not so good as to immediately take the job outright. I think we're going to see this same kind of muddy committee approach for the remainder of this year.

In the interest of a buy low/sell high kind of post (that is the thread after all lol) - I don't think ARI is going to extend/re-sign him and so I think Drake is a buy low if you can sit on him until next year - AND if you think he can go somewhere else, get better usage, and perform better than what we've seen him do so far this year. Get him now while he's at a reduced price, and stash him.

On the flip-side, I'm not convinced Edmunds can hold a bellcow role all to himself. I think there's a good possibility ARI will look for an RBBC next year, between Edmonds and either a mid-round RB from the draft or someone through FA - so I think Edmonds is a sell high right now based on the perception that he's set to inherit a backfield that I really don't think he's going to inherit.

Thoughts?

MFundercover wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:35 am Edmonds had a nice play today, still doesnt change my mind about what I had said. I dont think either are buy lows at this point, Arizona is a backfield to avoid.

Who knows what direction they will go in the offseason, but if it were my call, I wouldn't be spending significant draft capital on a running back when they need offensive line and defense. Edmonds will probably be a part of a committee again next season, whether it's with Drake or someone else.

dmac37 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 pm Diontae Johnson- I think he will be the AB in the Pitt offense starting immediately.

Montgomery- tough test last week vs the Colts and this week vs TB. I would pounce on him after this weeks game

Henry- has not had big numbers but has been producing with Herbert and Eckler out. I see Henry's targets and value increasing

Wentz- looked like crap for a few weeks but Sunday night he showed he still has it, O-line and receiving weapons will return

hoos89 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 pm

dmac37 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 pm Diontae Johnson- I think he will be the AB in the Pitt offense starting immediately.

Are people trying to buy low on Diontae Johnson after this week? Or does the injury and Claypool's breakout scare you off at his current price?

Fredator wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:39 am I got him for a 2021 second saturday and and played him over mike williams

mild wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:49 am

hoos89 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 pm

dmac37 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 pm Diontae Johnson- I think he will be the AB in the Pitt offense starting immediately.

Are people trying to buy low on Diontae Johnson after this week? Or does the injury and Claypool's breakout scare you off at his current price?

It's a variance play. I would certainly be enquiring with his owner to get a gut-check... for owners in leagues that are less analytically "aware" (ie. of DJ's insane seperation metrics) they may be getting nervous from this Claypool thing and could potentially give him up cheap.

I'd pounce if it was a 2nd, probably.

Vcize wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:14 pm May be slightly off-topic here and I like DJ but it's worth noting there is probably no statistic in any sport that is less predictive of success than the separation statistic for WRs in football. In fact if anything it's completely inversely proportional to success. Generally the bottom of this list of guys in this stat includes mostly pro bowlers and and the top includes a bunch of nobodies that people wouldn't often roster much less start in fantasy.

2019 for instance:
5 worst yds separation: Golladay, M Williams, Evans, Ratley, Diggs
5 best yds separation: Swaim, Akins, Hardman, Amendola, O'Shaugnessy

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:30 pm Tannehill seems to still be undervalued.

hoos89 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:48 pm Is separation typically given on a per target or per route basis? If the former, then the obvious flaw is that a high separation receiver is essentially only targeted if they're *wide* open. If the latter, there's still the confounding factor of quality of coverage: it may be that a high separation receiver is getting that open because they're not a defensive priority.

mild wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:15 pm

Vcize wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:14 pm May be slightly off-topic here and I like DJ but it's worth noting there is probably no statistic in any sport that is less predictive of success than the separation statistic for WRs in football. In fact if anything it's completely inversely proportional to success. Generally the bottom of this list of guys in this stat includes mostly pro bowlers and and the top includes a bunch of nobodies that people wouldn't often roster much less start in fantasy.

2019 for instance:
5 worst yds separation: Golladay, M Williams, Evans, Ratley, Diggs
5 best yds separation: Swaim, Akins, Hardman, Amendola, O'Shaugnessy

That's a more than fair reply, and I don't altogether disagree - it's a flawed stat, and no replacement for an actual eye-test. My eye test on Diontae tells me he's getting seperation where it counts, though - the guy is very shifty; it's not just an empty stat for him.

If you'd allow me to expand slightly on Diontae himself though - he also owned a +30% target share through the first two weeks before he got banged up. Only other WR in the league with that kind of volume in the same time span was Adam Theilan.

Again, we're talking about why we'd buy Diontae right now as opposed to Claypool, who looks like the hottest name to own in PIT this week. A vote for DJ is basically that he's a. a good receiver and b. still going to command a large target share in PIT.

It could be dicey, but that's why he's possibly a buy low.

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:14 pm I'd say Isabella. You can get him for a song. They just missed on a big play last week. He had a few TD's the week before, on short routes. He's getting more routes and snaps. Fitz is washed. Izzy should be more involved going forward.