Dynasty League Football Forum

saw061600 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level.

Yeah, that's the gamble right there. Knowing that guys like Barkley exist still gives me pause - he's just so unrealistically good!

Someone like Hill though? For all he had going for him, there were always huge red flags.

That said, trade markets also vary greatly from league to league. It's another thing to consider in these crazy value situations.

saw061600 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.

This makes sense to me

I've gotta say, this thread has been one of the more thoughtful and intelligently discussed topics I've seen on dynasty forums. There's a lot of dynasty management philosophy in these posts that would be extremely valuable to new owners. Well done everyone.

saw061600 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.

Agree with this. You're arguing real value vs. perceived value. You can turn perceived value into real value by cashing out and getting real life production.

Flgatorguy87 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:17 pm

saw061600 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.

Agree with this. You're arguing real value vs. perceived value. You can turn perceived value into real value by cashing out and getting real life production.

Absolutely. This is definitely something owners, especially those in a rebuild, should keep in mind. Well said!

bjd5211 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:19 am You're right, but I'm still not trading Saquon Barkley lol.

I'd be trying to trade Barkley. Mahomes, etc. !! LOL

Who are the players you are buying low and selling high?

Guys I'm kicking the tires on:

McCaffrey
Mixon
M. Thomas
Barkley
Sutton

What say you?

I would kick around buying any of those players if they are being sold low.

Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.

bjd5211 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.

He has been for years too. I bought him cheap 3 years ago. His value was suppressed then. At this rate, he'll likely retire on my roster.

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:39 am

bjd5211 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.

He has been for years too. I bought him cheap 3 years ago. His value was suppressed then. At this rate, he'll likely retire on my roster.

Well, he currently has a hamstring injury. There's always some nagging issue with him. I think those who have owned him know the frustrations that don't show up in the final stats.

Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:53 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:39 am

bjd5211 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.

He has been for years too. I bought him cheap 3 years ago. His value was suppressed then. At this rate, he'll likely retire on my roster.

Well, he currently has a hamstring injury. There's always some nagging issue with him. I think those who have owned him know the frustrations that don't show up in the final stats.

All WRs are up and done for different reasons, Julio is a lock to be a top 10 WR at the end of the year every year basically his entire career.

Buy low Allen Robinson

Has anyone seen any Sutton trades go down? What was the price?

To me, buy low discussions should be around players preceived ADP value, not stud players whose value has been lowered due to injury. So with that said;

RBs;
- Lev Bell, he has the respect and contract to demand touches when he returns. Everyone is down on the Jets offense, they can only go up when Lev Bell returns and the WRs return.
- Carson ADP per Mizelle is RB29, he routinely outperforms that. Seattle offense is scoring lots of points this year.
- David Johnson, ADP RB27, he looks good so far.
- Damian Harris, do you think he gets a legit shot this year when he returns?

WR;
Diontae Johnson, ADP WR40. He looks to be top 15 WR now. He is just getting warmed up with Big Ben.
- Shenault. He sure looks to have been worthy of a late
first rookie pick, not a late 2nd that people valued him as.
- Darrius Slayton, WE46. He most certainly will finish better than that.
- Robby Anderson WR66. Clearly poor ADP ranking on a quality WR.
- Allen Robinson. Chicago will be turning to Foles soon enough, Robinson stats will likely increase.

QB;
- Cam Newton. The guy is going to finish top 5 in QBs and is neat as good as any QB this year.