Buy Low/Sell High

[themburns]

This is easier said than done. In practice, Tyreek only held that kind of value for approximately 6 months. Championships were won on the back of that production. And, due to a flaw in the marketplace about people not correctly adjusting the value of known abusers, (In the twelve months after treatment, domestic abusers have an ~11% recidivism rate. ~24% are arrested again for the same crime over a 7 year period. And that doesn't count what goes on behind closed doors.) Most players were able to cash out for 60-70% of the previous value before this most recent evidence came to light. This same logic of sell high, buy low might have had you as one of the buyers this time last week.

[Phaded]

I agree.
I have always lived by this premise and I have never missed the playoffs once between my two leagues.

[Cameron Giles]

I think the lesson in this one is to never trust players with poor character and off field issues. It always comes back to get you because they've proven they're capable of it.

Buy low, sell high is a good lesson, but you can still get burned in those scenarios.

[FiremanEd]

I think the lesson in this one is to never trust players with poor character and off field issues. It always comes back to get you because they've proven they're capable of it.

Buy low, sell high is a good lesson, but you can still get burned in those scenarios.

My head immediately went to this as well. I think this more speaks to the character risks and chance or happening again. Selling high just to sell high can lead you to selling a Hopkins, Julio, or any other player with multiple high output seasons and potentially netting shinny toys, but guys that don't ultimately serve as difference-makers for your roster. It is a good guiding principal, but not something to apply in all scenarios by default. The approach of increasing the risk variable on off-field risk players is one that i think that can serve more rewards and be adhered to more consistently. Following that line, you would want to consider what you're doing with Hunt when he returns, or Joe Mixon, as examples.

[Paul717]

I picked up Hill for free early in his rookie season. Traded him after his rookie season, for two seconds over 2 years. Clearly, I did not "sell high" because his next 2 years were really really good and he was worth more than that. With the extra picks though I grabbed D. Watson and James Washington. I can live with that, especially now. I guess it would be like selling Bitcoin once it reached 10k instead of waiting until it hit > 19k. Meaning, didn't get peak value but could've been worse if I held all this time. Don't know if that's a good analogy or not? Good post OP.

[Johnny Canuck]

As others have said, "sell high" is a great strategy, but sometimes it can harder to see those sell high windows.

I remember even last offseason when some ppl were advocating to "sell high" on Adams (although no one will likely admit it now) thinking he had hit his ceiling...

I think that while simply saying "sell high" is correct, to accurately put the "sell high" philosophy into a more appropriate practice, it should include red flag markers (to avoid misguidedly selling prior to hitting a ceiling and/or selling a perennial top 12 positional player).

Some of the (obvious) markers include:
- Attached QB age (this should be worth like 5pts)
- Attached QB historical production
- Attached QB contract
- Coaching history associated with the player in questions position
- Player in question age
- Player in question contract
- Players historical production
- Average productivity length for a specific position, and age at breakout.
- Yrs in the league prior to breakout
- Draft capital investment
- Same team that drafted them or been moved multiple times
- Oline construction
- Oline contract situations
- Oline overall age
- Historical issues with personal conduct/suspensions (this should be work like 10pts)

Note: I don't just say that the conduct/suspension issues should be higher due to this being a partial Hill thread, these players just have more potential to really burn a roster spot. Hill is just one example, but there are many others to include like Josh Gordon/etc.

These are all the things we (likely) unconsciously consider when evaluating a trade or if to sell a player. But objectively considering some of these factors may change your view point on a particular players value. Obviously some markers matter more than others (QB play/age, player breakout age, coaching, and suspension issues) are among the biggest for me personally regarding red flag evaluations. All in all, I think it's smart to review your teams and see if you want to mitigate some risk.

Like Firemaned said, maybe selling Mixon now wouldn't be the worst idea if you could get a similar level player without the red flags in their past. People can change, and maybe Mixon has, but if you want to mitigate risk moving him would be a prudent move.

IMO, selling for a similar tier'd player plus a little bump is a great move if you want do a partial "sell high." I did this myself this offseason, moving AB for AJG and a 2020 1st.

Others to think about selling, that seem somewhat weird to say, but might be worth considering if you can get a kings ransom are...

1) Kamara = how much longer is Brees going to play (him leaving drastically changes the offensive output of that team), and they just lost their pro bowl center (which makes a bigger difference then most think).
2) Micheal Thomas = see above
3) Jared Cook = see above and he's spooning that age threshold.
4) Mixon = suspension issues in his past, potential rookie QB next yr (could be a good or bad thing), rookie HC.
5) Juju = guy has insane value, but has played with AB taking coverage and mostly out of the slot. Also Ben is getting older, but the new contract helps.
6) Golladay = current valuation is due to rose colored potential glasses, bevell has a very low hit rate at producing high end WRs, played with very little competition last season (now Hockenson competing in RZ, and Marvin back)

These are just a few that might be worth exploring. They prob won't be popular "sell high" candidates, but that is the very reason why they are great "sell high" candidates and you could likely get a massive haul.

[FantasyDumDum]

Buy low, sell high seems obvious, and works in an ideal world.

But the other side of the coin is that it is EXTREMELY hard to acquire high end talent in dynasty, so it is at once difficult to buy without having to overpay and difficult to sell even when being offered and overpay

[DLF3000]

Buy low, sell high seems obvious, and works in an ideal world.

But the other side of the coin is that it is EXTREMELY hard to acquire high end talent in dynasty, so it is at once difficult to buy without having to overpay and difficult to sell even when being offered and overpay

Truth. Every leagues' GM makeup and trade attitudes and market are different.

The problem is the 1-2 GMs in lots of leagues who consistently make questionable (being kind) or flat-out stupid (being real) trades to the league's sharks.

Same idea with all the dumpster fire NFL franchises and owners who make it easy for good teams to stay good. Here's looking at you, AFC East. That division's been a clown show besides the Pats for what feels like decades.

In dynasty though, the only option is "can't beat 'em, join 'em" with the sharks or find another league.

[Vcize]

There is a lesson to be learned from the current Hill drama; sell high and buy low. We're all really good at trying to buy low, even though we all sometimes buy high. However, I think MOST fantasy owners have a very hard time selling high. We get excited, justifiably so, at having a top asset that can potentially win us the championship (Gurley 2 years ago). But then, we fail to cash out for double the rewards: high draft picks AND quality players.

As soon as Hill started hitting "#1 Fantasy Asset, #1 Fantasy WR" status, owners that follow the sell high buy low belief should have looked to cash out. Apply the lesson to this and future years. If your top asset begins to generate hype that reaches fanatical proportions, sell high and increase roster capital. Get a top 20 WR and pick(s) for that #1 WR.

It's a shame none of your teams have Barkley so we could see if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is

[grandmabetty]

So you're saying I should sell JuJu? I did sell kittle this offseason. That should count

[Phaded]

So you're saying I should sell JuJu? I did sell kittle this offseason. That should count

Actually yes. JuJu is a great sell.

[hockeyBjj]

You're right, but I'm still not trading Saquon Barkley lol.

My exact thought

A flipside if this is we play to win the ship. If my team is a favorite contender, I'll hold onto guys even when their value is beyond the peak if I think they can help me win this year.

If you're a middle of the pack? Yeah, selling a top 5 stud for value could be your way to climbing out of mediocrity and becoming a contender in a season or two.

[grandmabetty]

Heres the problem with this. Its much much easier to find where the floor is than it is the ceiling. Have we reached Barkleys ceiling? JuJu's, Evans, Galloday, Adams, Kittle, Mixon, Conner? Any of the other young guys that are full of hype this offseason. Or is the ceiling 2 years from now when their hype is being fulfilled and it looks like the next stop is Cooperstown and FF immortality. There is little risk buying low cause you aren't giving up very much. Personally i think the best approach is to have balance. Or, as someone else mentioned, be a shark amongst fish and then the risk vs reward aspect of trades will be tipped in your favor

[Phaded]

It is also very easy for many fantasy owners to mistake floor with ceiling.
It is not that uncommon for young players to have a career year relatively early; and then people acquire them under the natural assumption of "he will only get better" which is not always the case. It is very possible for players to hit their ceiling early.

[saw061600]

I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.