Buy Low/Sell High

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I have to think that if ETN or Akers (or Dobbins for that matter) managers were keen on selling these guys, it would have happened last season. Those guys don't really jump out as buy lows for me, in general. Maybe Johnny Cocktail is right that they haven't seen their value bump yet, but I feel like that's just going to affect how the teams that don't have those players value them. The teams that still have them through a lost year at 22yo probably already value them at pre-injury prices.
Vet starting RBs: Chubb, Saquon, Miles Sanders. Both Chubb and Saquon seem to me like they have the work ethic to age well. Especially with Chubb, I think a lot of managers have been underwhelmed over the last 2 years and see him at 26 and are ready to jump ship. I'm usually all about jumping ship by 26, but Chubb seems like the type of RB that will age like Henry. Sanders has frustrated owners, but I can't think of cheaper under 25 RB with his build, athleticism, and receiving upside.
It's also hard to buy FA RBs, but seems like opinions are all over the place on Chase Edmonds and Rashaad Penny. I'm intrigued by both going into FA. Raheem Mostert following McDaniel to Miami is probably a recipe for some cheap RB1 weeks as well.

[Yarnith]

How about the super cheaps?

Marlon Mack- 1000yard rusher 25 years old whose real knock is injuries and he lost his job to JT.

Robert Woods- Injury shortened season, may go to a new team needing a Vet to lead the WR room devaluing him to many owners. Should easily pull high WR2 numbers or better with average QB play.

Hunter Long- The only TE in Miami who isn't a FA. This is a 49'ers coach coming in at HC, questions at QB and a predictive heavy running game coupled with actual talent, draft capital at TE in a hard to find position. You gotta love the upside.

[smbkrypt24]

How about the super cheaps?

Marlon Mack- 1000yard rusher 25 years old whose real knock is injuries and he lost his job to JT.

Robert Woods- Injury shortened season, may go to a new team needing a Vet to lead the WR room devaluing him to many owners. Should easily pull high WR2 numbers or better with average QB play.

Hunter Long- The only TE in Miami who isn't a FA. This is a 49'ers coach coming in at HC, questions at QB and a predictive heavy running game coupled with actual talent, draft capital at TE in a hard to find position. You gotta love the upside.

Just a caution for those saying Marlon Mack. He ran behind a very good OL, then tore his achilles. I think his upside is backup RB that spot starts when the starter is injured and puts up decent games.
So, if we are talking about a 3rd round rookie pick in non SF I could agree. Anything more is too much.

[MontrealBen]

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Mathew Stafford, Russel Wilson- all reduced value to age and I think they got some years left
RB: Akers, Dobbins, ETN I think are all due for major value bumps in the summer buying now you could sell for a profit later.
WR: Waddle, Kupp, M. Brown are a few guys I think going to low.
TE: Tough one I think most are overvalued at this point .

Akers is a buy low at top 5 RB prices? Agree on Russ, but I can't see how Akers is a buy low, unless people just don't realize where he's being valued right now by most.

Where are you seeing Kupp go right now? I find it hard to believe anyone who has him is selling cheap after that year. I took this thread as trading for a guy. In other words, startups aren't involved, but I could be wrong.

I'm not quite as experienced as many others in this forum, but I've pretty quickly learned that the opinions held by most here are ahead of the thinking in many of my leagues. It's always, always, always worth checking to see if you have leaguemates who are slow to adjust.

I have to think that if ETN or Akers (or Dobbins for that matter) managers were keen on selling these guys, it would have happened last season.

Respectfully disagree. I bet most owners held those guys because they knew better than to sell low. I bet you can find owners who are now willing to "sell high" because in their mind their plan of holding until their value spiked has "worked". Both are, IMO, plant-your-flag players. I think you'll get lots of variation on where people value Akers and ETN, and worth seeing if you're higher on them than their owners.

[FantasyFreak]

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Mathew Stafford, Russel Wilson- all reduced value to age and I think they got some years left
RB: Akers, Dobbins, ETN I think are all due for major value bumps in the summer buying now you could sell for a profit later.
WR: Waddle, Kupp, M. Brown are a few guys I think going to low.
TE: Tough one I think most are overvalued at this point .

Akers is a buy low at top 5 RB prices? Agree on Russ, but I can't see how Akers is a buy low, unless people just don't realize where he's being valued right now by most.

Where are you seeing Kupp go right now? I find it hard to believe anyone who has him is selling cheap after that year. I took this thread as trading for a guy. In other words, startups aren't involved, but I could be wrong.

I'm not quite as experienced as many others in this forum, but I've pretty quickly learned that the opinions held by most here are ahead of the thinking in many of my leagues. It's always, always, always worth checking to see if you have leaguemates who are slow to adjust.

I have to think that if ETN or Akers (or Dobbins for that matter) managers were keen on selling these guys, it would have happened last season.

Respectfully disagree. I bet most owners held those guys because they knew better than to sell low. I bet you can find owners who are now willing to "sell high" because in their mind their plan of holding until their value spiked has "worked". Both are, IMO, plant-your-flag players. I think you'll get lots of variation on where people value Akers and ETN, and worth seeing if you're higher on them than their owners.

From what I have seen, Akers is being valued as a top 5 back by his owners, which is driving his price. I was telling people to sell high last off season when he was a first round start up pick, which I practiced what I preached. Drafted him, traded him. He was Miles Sanders 2.0 to me, in the sense after a rookie year we saw flashes but no major production, his value shot up into top 5 RB territory, and first round start up prices. Both were sell high's to me. Akers is again, at top 5 prices. People had their shot, missed, and now are not willing to trade for less than last year, and IMO, it's driving his price up in non start ups. They feel cheated, and after he came back and got significant touches, most want all, or close to that price again. I think many will be foolish enough to pay it. I want no part of him at the price his owners want for him, in my leagues.

[Packerland]

Akers is a buy low at top 5 RB prices? Agree on Russ, but I can't see how Akers is a buy low, unless people just don't realize where he's being valued right now by most.

Where are you seeing Kupp go right now? I find it hard to believe anyone who has him is selling cheap after that year. I took this thread as trading for a guy. In other words, startups aren't involved, but I could be wrong.

I'm not quite as experienced as many others in this forum, but I've pretty quickly learned that the opinions held by most here are ahead of the thinking in many of my leagues. It's always, always, always worth checking to see if you have leaguemates who are slow to adjust.

I have to think that if ETN or Akers (or Dobbins for that matter) managers were keen on selling these guys, it would have happened last season.

Respectfully disagree. I bet most owners held those guys because they knew better than to sell low. I bet you can find owners who are now willing to "sell high" because in their mind their plan of holding until their value spiked has "worked". Both are, IMO, plant-your-flag players. I think you'll get lots of variation on where people value Akers and ETN, and worth seeing if you're higher on them than their owners.

From what I have seen, Akers is being valued as a top 5 back by his owners, which is driving his price. I was telling people to sell high last off season when he was a first round start up pick, which I practiced what I preached. Drafted him, traded him. He was Miles Sanders 2.0 to me, in the sense after a rookie year we saw flashes but no major production, his value shot up into top 5 RB territory, and first round start up prices. Both were sell high's to me. Akers is again, at top 5 prices. People had their shot, missed, and now are not willing to trade for less than last year, and IMO, it's driving his price up in non start ups. They feel cheated, and after he came back and got significant touches, most want all, or close to that price again. I think many will be foolish enough to pay it. I want no part of him at the price his owners want for him, in my leagues.

Yea, I really don't want any part of Akers. I give him credit for coming back so quickly after the Achilles injury but I try to avoid making that "fatal" mistake early in start ups and try not to trade for those type of guys that seem to be dinged up a lot. If I would take any RB coming off of injury it would easily be Dobbins for me as he is much more talented than Akers and suffered a far less severe injury.

[Ice]

I am not sure what buy low really means these days.

Value plays for 2022 on dynasty rosters though that few are talking about.

QB's in SF leagues
Davis Mills
Jimmy G
Tua

WR's
Gabriel Davis
Michael Gallup
Brandon Cooks
KJ Osborn

RB's
Damien Harris (always underrated)
AJ Dillon

TE's
Dawson Knox

[murphysxm]

I am not sure what buy low really means these days.

Value plays for 2022 on dynasty rosters though that few are talking about.

QB's in SF leagues
Davis Mills
Jimmy G
Tua

WR's
Gabriel Davis
Michael Gallup
Brandon Cooks
KJ Osborn

RB's
Damien Harris (always underrated)
AJ Dillon

TE's
Dawson Knox

I actually think Gabriel Davis and AJ Dillon are overrated right now. The others fit the bill though

[MontrealBen]

I agree about Davis. Dillon is probably properly rated in most leagues. He should be about even with Tony Pollard.

In superflex, people are WAY too quick to toss out quality veteran QBs. Carr, Cousins and Jimmy G should be available for cheap compared to what they'll return next year (and probably for the next 2-3).

At RB, I've been able to add Gus Edwards and Dont'a Foreman for cheap, which I'm happy with. Josh Jacobs is around RB20 for most people, which feels low based on his floor. Connor at RB30ish seems like a worthwhile dice role; Arizona could absolutely end up with him as their primary back again.

At WR, I'd be adding Renfrow everywhere I possibly can. He's RB40 on FantasyPros, RB32 on KTC (about even with an early 2nd). I'd be adding at that price ALL DAY. Sutton and Juju look to both be in the late WR30s, but both could have drastically improved situations in a couple of months. Brandon Cooks will be outside of most people's top 40 but gave you a startable performance more than half the time this year in one of the worst offensive situations imaginable. If I was a contender, I'd kick the tires on Will Fuller too. He's still only 27 and is in the WR60s on both sites.

At TE, probably most people have their TEs appropriately ranked. If anyone's been slow on upgrading Knox, or is worried about the WR cutting into his production, then I'd be inquiring. Albert O is a cheap play that could pay off (but I don't believe Fant will live up to his top 10 billing). Check to see if Irv Smith has been forgotten about by his owner. I think Jarwin is likely to end up with the Dallas starting role; it's speculative, but he's dirt cheap right now and showed he can put up numbers as the TE1 on his team. If you want to go REALLY deep, I'd stash Tyree Jackson and John Bates. Their teams apparently really like them, and each is arguably one injury away from stepping in a high-volume role.

[kmbryant09]

Been thinking a lot about players that I'd have conviction to buy this off-season with full confidence that they'll either gain value in the future, out-produce 2022 expectations, or both. Do yourself, and your team, a favor and go acquire these players before it's too late!

Quarterback:

Lamar Jackson - QB is probably the hardest position to find value in right now. But I'm buying Jackson based on some rankings / evaluations that have him behind a combination of Herbert, Burrow, and Dak. Jackson is just 25 years old, an NFL MVP, human highlight reel, and has an elite combination of safe floor / high ceiling. I won't argue the Herbert ranking, but give me Jackson over Burrow & Dak pretty easily.

Running Back:

J.K. Dobbins - Consistently ranked in the RB 12 - 18 range, he's about 8 - 12 spots too low. I think there's a very clear path for his 2022 season to resemble what we just saw from J. Taylor in 2021. He's 23 years old, an elite talent, in an elite situation. Why are people ranking D. Montgomery, A. Jones, J. Mixon, D. Cook, A. Kamara, N. Chubb, E. Elliot, C. Akers, etc. over this guy? We overthought J. Taylor in 2021, don't make the same mistake this year.

Saquon Barkley - I don't typically like to acquire RBs with multiple years' worth of injuries, but I'm willing to make an exception for Barkley if he's being valued outside of the top 8 - 10 RBs in your league. Just 25 years old with very little wear & tear (in the form of NFL touches, at least) who's going to see a huge boost to his situation either in 2022 or 2023 (or both). B. Daboll should really help that offense, and either D. Jones finally runs a good offense with a good coach, or Daboll finds someone who will.

Miles Sanders - We just witnessed the most unlucky RB season of all-time. Played ~65% of RB snaps when healthy, averaged 5.5 ypc, and PHI RBs accounted for 16 total TDs on the season - and somehow Sanders had ZERO! He may never put it all together (health + opportunity + TD regression), but stacking just 2 of those 3 should return solid RB 2 production - he's just 24 years old with draft capital and a resume littered with production & efficiency that makes him a top32 (starting) RB in the NFL.

Wide Receiver:

DJ Moore - The most obvious trade target this off-season for me. He's averaging 82 catches / 1,175 yards over the past 3 seasons catching passes from C. Newton (washed up), S. Darnold (bust), T. Bridgewater (yuck), and K. Allen (lol). He'd have back-to-back-to-back top12 seasons if he scored 8+ TDs per season. I think he gets there next year - in part because of positive TD regression (near bulletproof), and in part because of a QB upgrade (D. Watson?). If the TDs increase, Moore is an elite, top8 WR. And if they don't, he's still a great WR 2. He's a top12 dynasty WR for me.

Courtland Sutton - No lengthy argument to back this one up other than I think he's a very talented WR due for a major QB / offense upgrade. Jeudy has done nothing the past 2 years to warrant more value than Sutton.

Kadarius Toney - Injuries and character are real concerns, but he flashed some serious potential and his film (route running + explosiveness) was very encouraging. Shepard, Slayton, Rudolph, and Engram are all likely gone next year, leaving behind 223 targets despite that quartette missing 17 combined games. If you don't think he'll stay healthy and have a productive career, at least acquire him cheaply now and sell after a blow-up game in 2022.

Tight End:

Like QB, I don't have any real obvious targets that I'm 100% confident in. Some names I'd throw some cheap offers out for:

E. Engram - betting on an opportunity reset for a once-talented TE.
D. Knox - maybe the Gronk rumors have scared the Knox owners, and while TD regression will likely hit, he can offset that with an increase in catches/yards.
B. Jordan - liked him coming out of Miami, flashed as a rookie, likely cheap.
R. Tonyan - purely a bet that Rodgers returns to GB, and Tonyan recaptures the starting job once healthy.

[sugbear65]

We all have our values and I’m not saying any of this as a dig or to be combative. But I disagree with you almost across the board.

L. Jackson- his current ADP is the QB4 overall, already ahead of Burrow and Dak. Personally I’d take Burrow but I understand why Lamar is where he is. That being said, his value is not low or out of line right now. It’s fine to trade for him if you want a high end QB1. But if you are think you can do it easily so because you think his price is depressed, I would wholeheartedly disagree there. I don’t see any discounts being offered and I’m not sure how much value he can gain.

JK Dobbins- so you are saying he should be valued as a top 4 RB? I think his price is already inflated, that kind of ranking is just insane to me. How could he possibly increase in value from there?

Saquan Barkley- looks like a shell of the RB that was able to put up RB1 points. I don’t think you are ever going to see that guy again, and are paying for name value more than anything at this point. Top 8-10 prices? No way for me.

Miles Sanders- he’s a fine low end RB2 type. You say he can be a top 32 RB? He is already priced accordingly then with an ADP of RB27. Again a fine trade target if he’s a guy you want, but it’s not like he’s a bargain or something. I think it’s just as likely he gets replaced as it is he has a similar role to what he has now come 2023.

DJ Moore- this one I agree with and at an ADP of WR14 he’s pretty close to properly priced, but I could see him jumping a few spots.

C. Sutton- my counter argument would be Sutton has done nothing the past two years to warrant more value than Jeudy.

K. Toney- I think he is actually overvalued. A deep threat specialist that won’t ever be close to a WR1 in fantasy in my opinion, I think his inconsistency will shine through and you can get more for him now while people view them as “flashes” instead of up and down production.

TE-
Knox- seems like a decent player and is already pretty highly ranked, I could see a value drop easily than an increase IMO.

The other TEs- none of these are targets for me, though I don’t hate the B. Jordan call. But they are all likely cheap enough that I won’t argue if somebody wanted to call them buys.

Again, I don’t mean all this in a negative way or trying to put down your rankings. More so just showing that we all have different values, and some peoples idea or opinions on a player can be drastically different.

[hankmurphy]

K. Toney- I think he is actually overvalued. A deep threat specialist that won’t ever be close to a WR1 in fantasy in my opinion,

Senior year average depth of target was 7.7 yards, but produced 14 yards per reception.

[StripesOfKC]

Lamar: YES
Dobbins: yes
Barkley: yes
Sanders: yeah..no I'll pass
DJ Moore: YES
Sutton: maybe
Toney: somewhere between maybe and yes
Engram: eh sure why not--he has been productive before
Knox: might be too late but sure
Tonyan: I would not
Jordan: yes

Pretty decent list overall--only steadfast disagreement for me is Miles Sanders

[abloom]

Adding Dalton Shultz to TE list. Especially if Dallas moves on from amari.

[CGW]

K. Toney- I think he is actually overvalued. A deep threat specialist that won’t ever be close to a WR1 in fantasy in my opinion,

Senior year average depth of target was 7.7 yards, but produced 14 yards per reception.

I also dont see "deep threat specialist" with Toney. He may not be a very polished at his route tree, but he's much more versatile than purely deep balls. I see a super twitchy, quick, YAC WR. If he develops and keeps his head on straight, I agree with him being a buy.