Flag Plant: Montgomery trajectory will exceed that of Josh Jacobs

[sugbear65]

Just going to leave this here because I know it will ruffle some feathers, but if we are planting flags-

D. Singletary will exceed both.

[Yarnith]

I don't remember hearing all this monty hate last year. I never liked him at all. It was beyond dumb to invest the pick the Bears did for a JAG running back at best. At least take a shot on a guy with actual athleticism.

Didn't everyone base their love on his record breaking broken tackle stats that pff gave him? How's that working out in the NFL? The guy has such a slow juke. He wastes so much body movement avoiding tacklers that it makes the move look cool when he actually pulls it off. The problem is he is so damn slow. How did i see this coming and Ryan Pace didn't?

Monty broke 2 more tackles than Jacobs in 2019? Good for 7th in the league, behind the 25th offensive line and (raiders were 15th for reference) on the 28th offense (the raiders were 11th for reference). His short space juke is ankle breaking in the NFL its why he has any success because he doesn't have the burst to just run away. He is not an elusive back like Kamara or Ekeler who can use speed to cover for terrible O-line play. I donno about loving him as a RB overall but the hate is hype and he is plenty sound as a back to be a 2down starter in the NFL.

[M-Dub]

I actually own Chubb in one league and have been trying to trade him for Jacobs all offseason with no luck

I wouldn't do that deal with you either, Jacobs is RB5 overall for me. Montgomery on the other hand probably isn't top 20, and I was a believer at one point too. I had 1.01, 1.02 and 1.04 in one league last year and took Jacobs, Montgomery, Harry (Sanders obviously went 3). I soon realized this was a mistake thankfully and was able to trade Montgomery + '20 3 for Hollywood + '20 2, and then earlier this offseason traded Hollywood in a package for 1.01 and get CEH. It was just pretty clear almost right away that Montgomery is a solid player, but won't ever been a real difference maker.

So what you’re saying is you’ve had the 1.01 the past two draft classes and failed to come away with the best player two years in a row? Ouch.

[FantasyFreak]

I actually own Chubb in one league and have been trying to trade him for Jacobs all offseason with no luck

I wouldn't do that deal with you either, Jacobs is RB5 overall for me. Montgomery on the other hand probably isn't top 20, and I was a believer at one point too. I had 1.01, 1.02 and 1.04 in one league last year and took Jacobs, Montgomery, Harry (Sanders obviously went 3). I soon realized this was a mistake thankfully and was able to trade Montgomery + '20 3 for Hollywood + '20 2, and then earlier this offseason traded Hollywood in a package for 1.01 and get CEH. It was just pretty clear almost right away that Montgomery is a solid player, but won't ever been a real difference maker.

So what you’re saying is you’ve had the 1.01 the past two draft classes and failed to come away with the best player two years in a row? Ouch.

Nope, he took Jacobs.

[StripesOfKC]

I wouldn't do that deal with you either, Jacobs is RB5 overall for me. Montgomery on the other hand probably isn't top 20, and I was a believer at one point too. I had 1.01, 1.02 and 1.04 in one league last year and took Jacobs, Montgomery, Harry (Sanders obviously went 3). I soon realized this was a mistake thankfully and was able to trade Montgomery + '20 3 for Hollywood + '20 2, and then earlier this offseason traded Hollywood in a package for 1.01 and get CEH. It was just pretty clear almost right away that Montgomery is a solid player, but won't ever been a real difference maker.

So what you’re saying is you’ve had the 1.01 the past two draft classes and failed to come away with the best player two years in a row? Ouch.

Nope, he took Jacobs.

This Sanders-Jacobs debate will be quite funny when both become middling to high RB2s

One catching but an average runner
One a great runner but can't get a target--let alone a reception

Of course you'll still be really grateful to have either over Montgomery or Harry

[M-Dub]

I wouldn't do that deal with you either, Jacobs is RB5 overall for me. Montgomery on the other hand probably isn't top 20, and I was a believer at one point too. I had 1.01, 1.02 and 1.04 in one league last year and took Jacobs, Montgomery, Harry (Sanders obviously went 3). I soon realized this was a mistake thankfully and was able to trade Montgomery + '20 3 for Hollywood + '20 2, and then earlier this offseason traded Hollywood in a package for 1.01 and get CEH. It was just pretty clear almost right away that Montgomery is a solid player, but won't ever been a real difference maker.

So what you’re saying is you’ve had the 1.01 the past two draft classes and failed to come away with the best player two years in a row? Ouch.

Nope, he took Jacobs.

I know. That was his first mistake. The second (and much worse) mistake was passing on the best player YET AGAIN for David freakin’ Montgomery. I just got a chuckle from how the whole point of the post was that he realized he screwed up, made a bunch of moves to fix it, got the 2020 1.01, and then made the same mistake all over again. Haha.

[bjd5211]

I'd hardly call it screwing up, and have multiple Taylor shares already so figured I would go with CEH on one, especially since he'll be my RB3 behind Barkley and Jacobs, with Swift as my RB4.

[FantasyFreak]

So what you’re saying is you’ve had the 1.01 the past two draft classes and failed to come away with the best player two years in a row? Ouch.

Nope, he took Jacobs.

This Sanders-Jacobs debate will be quite funny when both become middling to high RB2s

One catching but an average runner
One a great runner but can't get a target--let alone a reception

Of course you'll still be really grateful to have either over Montgomery or Harry

He had 20 reception in 13 games last year and that was with the staff fully admitting they held him back last year purposely, from passing work. We shall see, but based on his rookie averages, even a mild increase in receiving, if he keeps his rushing numbers similar, will be RB1 good.

Jacobs was on pace for 1, 415 rushing yards and 9 TD's before being shut down because they weren't going anywhere last year. Even with his minimal passing work, he was still on pace for 25 receptions.

If he puts up that, and gets even a mild increase in targets, which has been expressed as part of the plan by the staff, he should be a RB1. One extra target a game would put him in Nick Chubb territory for points from last year.

[Pac_Eddy]

I understand the Montgomery hate from lack of stats last year, but I also see a reason for hope for a turn-around.

As I've mentioned before, his situation is similar to Dalvin Cook's. Cook's first season was behind the league-worst Vikings offensive line. He was constantly getting hit right after hand off and had no room to run. He did show some bursts of brilliance. This lack of production caused his detractors to say "told you so" and cite all the things I'm seeing here about Montgomery. Yet most Vikings fans knew what we had in Cook.

If the Bears o-line and offense in general improves even a little, Montgomery may finally be able to show off what he can do. He had some nice plays of making more yardage and breaking tackles like we saw in his college years. The Bears rarely used him as a receiver out of the backfield and I know he's a competent receiver.

I like that johnnymozart is willing to plant his flag with Montgomery. I think he's saying the same as I am - Montgomery's value can climb significantly this season. Josh Jacob's is very high so there's room for his to drop. While unlikely, it is possible that Montgomery is valued more than Jacobs. And I agree with sugbear65 that Singletary could be the best RB of the three at the end.

[ericanadian]

I understand the Montgomery hate from lack of stats last year, but I also see a reason for hope for a turn-around.

As I've mentioned before, his situation is similar to Dalvin Cook's. Cook's first season was behind the league-worst Vikings offensive line. He was constantly getting hit right after hand off and had no room to run. He did show some bursts of brilliance. This lack of production caused his detractors to say "told you so" and cite all the things I'm seeing here about Montgomery. Yet most Vikings fans knew what we had in Cook.

If the Bears o-line and offense in general improves even a little, Montgomery may finally be able to show off what he can do. He had some nice plays of making more yardage and breaking tackles like we saw in his college years. The Bears rarely used him as a receiver out of the backfield and I know he's a competent receiver.

I like that johnnymozart is willing to plant his flag with Montgomery. I think he's saying the same as I am - Montgomery's value can climb significantly this season. Josh Jacob's is very high so there's room for his to drop. While unlikely, it is possible that Montgomery is valued more than Jacobs. And I agree with sugbear65 that Singletary could be the best RB of the three at the end.

Dalvin Cook got injured four games into his rookie season and put up 354 yards in those games with a 4.8 YPC. He missed time again in year two putting up 615 yards in ten games with a 4.6 YPC. Statistically, Cook was miles ahead of Montgomery from an efficiency standpoint. Not seeing the comparison.

[Pac_Eddy]

If the Bears o-line and offense in general improves even a little, Montgomery may finally be able to show off what he can do. He had some nice plays of making more yardage and breaking tackles like we saw in his college years. The Bears rarely used him as a receiver out of the backfield and I know he's a competent receiver.

Dalvin Cook got injured four games into his rookie season and put up 354 yards in those games with a 4.8 YPC. He missed time again in year two putting up 615 yards in ten games with a 4.6 YPC. Statistically, Cook was miles ahead of Montgomery from an efficiency standpoint. Not seeing the comparison.

The biggest point of my post was being on a poor offense with a poor o-line. Do you see that comparison?

[bjd5211]

If the Bears o-line and offense in general improves even a little, Montgomery may finally be able to show off what he can do. He had some nice plays of making more yardage and breaking tackles like we saw in his college years. The Bears rarely used him as a receiver out of the backfield and I know he's a competent receiver.

Dalvin Cook got injured four games into his rookie season and put up 354 yards in those games with a 4.8 YPC. He missed time again in year two putting up 615 yards in ten games with a 4.6 YPC. Statistically, Cook was miles ahead of Montgomery from an efficiency standpoint. Not seeing the comparison.

The biggest point of my post was being on a poor offense with a poor o-line. Do you see that comparison?

Just because they had comparable situations and circumstances doesn't mean they are comparable players. Cook is clearly the more dynamic and explosive player out of the two.

[Pac_Eddy]

Dalvin Cook got injured four games into his rookie season and put up 354 yards in those games with a 4.8 YPC. He missed time again in year two putting up 615 yards in ten games with a 4.6 YPC. Statistically, Cook was miles ahead of Montgomery from an efficiency standpoint. Not seeing the comparison.

The biggest point of my post was being on a poor offense with a poor o-line. Do you see that comparison?

Just because they had comparable situations and circumstances doesn't mean they are comparable players. Cook is clearly the more dynamic and explosive player out of the two.

Yeah. I agree.

[Mjvb5]

Dalvin Cook got injured four games into his rookie season and put up 354 yards in those games with a 4.8 YPC. He missed time again in year two putting up 615 yards in ten games with a 4.6 YPC. Statistically, Cook was miles ahead of Montgomery from an efficiency standpoint. Not seeing the comparison.

The biggest point of my post was being on a poor offense with a poor o-line. Do you see that comparison?

Just because they had comparable situations and circumstances doesn't mean they are comparable players. Cook is clearly the more dynamic and explosive player out of the two.

Yeah thats the issue, Cook had significantly higher draft capital, higher per game production and significantly higher effeciency metrics both rushing and receiving. They both had bad situations but Cook rookie year was phenemenol (for 5 games) an sophomore year the downtick(which was still better than monty) was attributed to holdovers from the prior years injury

[johnnymozart]

Jacobs > Monty presently. But if you read what I wrote more carefully; my prediction is more based on injury/beatings taken and the present state of Jacobs --near ceiling of value-- and Monty, who I believe he is at his lowest point in value for the foreseeable stretch.

I will check in on this thread as time goes on and will eat crow as necessary.

I believe dynasty is similar to a stock market environment and a perceived value over time is critical to managing your squad over a long duration. ("Perceived value" being roughly ADP over time in dynasty startups, imo) My conclusion being that Monty will be a beacon of steadiness and be a fixture in the NFL as an unspectacular workhorse. Jacobs will be a tease, similar to Dalvin. Games played is a big stat in the long run in Dynasty.