WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

[Sriracha]

8 or less games played;

Studs
Vincent Jackson – 8 games (2nd round pick) (59 yards year 1)(453 yards year 2)
Amani Toomer – 7 games (2nd round pick) (12 yards year 1)(263 yards year 2)
Donald Driver – 6 games (7th round pick) (31 yards year 1)(322 yards year 2)
Santana Moss – 5 games (1st round pick) (40 yards year 1)(433 yards year 2)

Good
Victor Cruz – 3 games (UDFA) (0 yards year 1) (1536 yards year 2)


If you adjust for looking at players with 8 or less games played and top 2 round draft pedigree, you find 23 results, and the percentages jump up from 1% to 13%. It's not much but it's something.

As for the rest of the players on the list, many busted after just 1 year. Some plodded a long for a few years of 200-300 yards production. Others like Ike Hilliard had O-K careers. And the ones I listed above became studs.

Looking at the "high profile" names on the 8 or less list since 2015, we have;
Travis Fulgham
Allen Lazard
Preston Williams
Parris Campbell
Josh Doctson
John Ross
N'Keal Harry
Kevin White
Dede Westbrook
Keke Coutee
Jalen Guyton
Auden Tate

Oddly enough, Preston Williams has the most rookie receiving yardage of anyone on the 8 or less list from 1995-2019

This feels like a fairly small list of names and is also full of WRs with relatively low draft capital (which already have a fairly low hit rate).

Could be a small sample trap

[Dynasty DeLorean]

8 or less games played;

Studs
Vincent Jackson – 8 games (2nd round pick) (59 yards year 1)(453 yards year 2)
Amani Toomer – 7 games (2nd round pick) (12 yards year 1)(263 yards year 2)
Donald Driver – 6 games (7th round pick) (31 yards year 1)(322 yards year 2)
Santana Moss – 5 games (1st round pick) (40 yards year 1)(433 yards year 2)

Good
Victor Cruz – 3 games (UDFA) (0 yards year 1) (1536 yards year 2)


If you adjust for looking at players with 8 or less games played and top 2 round draft pedigree, you find 23 results, and the percentages jump up from 1% to 13%. It's not much but it's something.

As for the rest of the players on the list, many busted after just 1 year. Some plodded a long for a few years of 200-300 yards production. Others like Ike Hilliard had O-K careers. And the ones I listed above became studs.

Looking at the "high profile" names on the 8 or less list since 2015, we have;
Travis Fulgham
Allen Lazard
Preston Williams
Parris Campbell
Josh Doctson
John Ross
N'Keal Harry
Kevin White
Dede Westbrook
Keke Coutee
Jalen Guyton
Auden Tate

Oddly enough, Preston Williams has the most rookie receiving yardage of anyone on the 8 or less list from 1995-2019

This feels like a fairly small list of names and is also full of WRs with relatively low draft capital (which already have a fairly low hit rate).

Could be a small sample trap

I’m not following. The list of names is not the sample

[Sriracha]

I’m not following. The list of names is not the sample

If the "high profile names" are chalk full of guys that were drafted on day 3 or later that's not what I'd consider useable evidence to indicate much of anything.

If you adjust for looking at players with 8 or less games played and top 2 round draft pedigree, you find 23 results, and the percentages jump up from 1% to 13%. It's not much but it's something.

13% seems pretty low, but it doesn't seem all that much lower than the general hit rate on round 1-2 WRs. It's interseting, but my confidence in a 23 player sample size isn't very high.

Not trying to poop on your hard work. It's interesting stuff But I just don't know if we can draw meaningful conclusions based on the available data.

I'm also incredibly tired, so I might just be misconstruing something

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I’m not following. The list of names is not the sample

If the "high profile names" are chalk full of guys that were drafted on day 3 or later that's not what I'd consider useable evidence to indicate much of anything.

If you adjust for looking at players with 8 or less games played and top 2 round draft pedigree, you find 23 results, and the percentages jump up from 1% to 13%. It's not much but it's something.

13% seems pretty low, but it doesn't seem all that much lower than the general hit rate on round 1-2 WRs. It's interseting, but my confidence in a 23 player sample size isn't very high.

Not trying to poop on your hard work. It's interesting stuff But I just don't know if we can draw meaningful conclusions based on the available data.

I'm also incredibly tired, so I might just be misconstruing something

Just eyeballing it the hit rate for at least a good player top 2 round draft capital with 9+ games played their rookie season appears to be at least 35%, and that’s not checking every player that’s just counting the players I know. So the difference is significant.

The “high profile names” aren’t evidence of anything. I don’t understand what you’re talking about

[Jigga94]

Jeudy going to take a nice jump up after today

[Sriracha]

Jeudy going to take a nice jump up after today

Could've been an even bigger day if he didn't suck bleep in contested situations

[My BallZach Ertz]

Gilbert looks like a nice upgrade for Lamb. He looked his way often today against a tough Pitt D.

[failblazer]

Jeudy going to take a nice jump up after today

It's amazing the difference one really good game makes. His numbers are now very much in line with Tee Higgins'.

Higgins - 8 games, 33 rec, 488 yards - 61 yards per game, projected 66 catches for 976 yards.

Jeudy - 8 games, 30 rec, 484 yards - 61 yards per game, projected 60 catches for 968 yards.

Both fall into the 47% hit rate for Yards Per Game (67 taking them to 90%), 44% for projected yards (need 1000) and 42% for projected catches (need 70-99 for 70%).

[Cameron Giles]

It's amazing the difference one really good game makes. His numbers are now very much in line with Tee Higgins'.

Higgins - 8 games, 33 rec, 488 yards - 61 yards per game, projected 66 catches for 976 yards.

Jeudy - 8 games, 30 rec, 484 yards - 61 yards per game, projected 60 catches for 968 yards.

Both fall into the 47% hit rate for Yards Per Game (67 taking them to 90%), 44% for projected yards (need 1000) and 42% for projected catches (need 70-99 for 70%).

This is exactly what I've been saying throughout this thread.

Jeudy was already on a solid pace for a rookie without having a blowup game. Now that he's had one, it bloats the production.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Update for week 9


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% stud
Jefferson [78]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
47% stud
75% good
Lamb [66]
Higgins [61]
Jeudy [61]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
28% stud
75% good
Claypool [56]
Aiyuk [53]
Mims [49]

--------------------

Less than 47
5-10% stud
19% good

Shenault [40][Tracking towards "42% stud" for receptions (60-69 receptions)]
Mooney [39][Tracking towards "42% stud" for receptions (60-69 receptions)]
Reagor [37]
Ruggs [37]
Hamler [32]
G. Davis [31]
Pittman [27]
Tyron Johnson [26]
Cephus [26]
B. Edwards [25]
M. Callaway [23]
Hightower [21]



*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = ~3+ seasons of relevant production (relevant production being roughly 800+ receiving yards per year)

Hopefully I clarified things a bit better this week

[Patsfan86]

I think Mims gets into that next tier before the end of the year, Aiyuk as well.

[Sriracha]

Doesn't exactly have much to do with the premise of this thread but it's worth noting given that we're still talking about young WRs.

Mims is already being treated as the #1 by NFL defenses already.

Claypool has been splitting time with Diontae as the #1 for NFL defenses (before, defenses were singularly focused on Diontae when he's on the field).

Not enough data on Aiyuk given Deebo's injury, but he's the WR who's running the full route tree while Deebo has been relegated to YAC receiver when they've played together.

If you had any reservations about paying full price for those WRs, I think it's time to get rid of them and treat them like the alpha's they are moving forward.

[Vcize]

Doesn't exactly have much to do with the premise of this thread but it's worth noting given that we're still talking about young WRs.

Mims is already being treated as the #1 by NFL defenses already.

Claypool has been splitting time with Diontae as the #1 for NFL defenses (before, defenses were singularly focused on Diontae when he's on the field).

Not enough data on Aiyuk given Deebo's injury, but he's the WR who's running the full route tree while Deebo has been relegated to YAC receiver when they've played together.

If you had any reservations about paying full price for those WRs, I think it's time to get rid of them and treat them like the alpha's they are moving forward.

Where are you getting the info on how defenses treat them?

[Sriracha]

Doesn't exactly have much to do with the premise of this thread but it's worth noting given that we're still talking about young WRs.

Mims is already being treated as the #1 by NFL defenses already.

Claypool has been splitting time with Diontae as the #1 for NFL defenses (before, defenses were singularly focused on Diontae when he's on the field).

Not enough data on Aiyuk given Deebo's injury, but he's the WR who's running the full route tree while Deebo has been relegated to YAC receiver when they've played together.

If you had any reservations about paying full price for those WRs, I think it's time to get rid of them and treat them like the alpha's they are moving forward.

Where are you getting the info on how defenses treat them?

Playerprofiler gamelogs

[Chwf3rd]

Update for week 9


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% stud
Jefferson [78]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
47% stud
75% good
Lamb [66]
Higgins [61]
Jeudy [61]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
28% stud
75% good
Claypool [56]
Aiyuk [53]
Mims [49]

--------------------

Less than 47
5-10% stud
19% good

Shenault [40][Tracking towards "42% stud" for receptions (60-69 receptions)]
Mooney [39][Tracking towards "42% stud" for receptions (60-69 receptions)]
Reagor [37]
Ruggs [37]
Hamler [32]
G. Davis [31]
Pittman [27]
Tyron Johnson [26]
Cephus [26]
B. Edwards [25]
M. Callaway [23]
Hightower [21]



*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = ~3+ seasons of relevant production (relevant production being roughly 800+ receiving yards per year)

Hopefully I clarified things a bit better this week

Two questions:
1. Why not include rushing yards? Is that less predictive?
2. Did you include this past game where Shenault left with an injury?