Dynasty League Football Forum

I'm not yet done with my rookie RB write ups, but I wanna throw Pooka Williams out there. Undersized kid, kind of a Tarik Cohen with more patience and speed. He'll never be a lead back but if you have a late third or fourth and you wanna spend it on a guy who should get you some decent flex points, or someone who is sure to gain value so you can flip for a 2nd or even a 1st if he dazzles early, Pooka is your guy.

This kid is sure to make a highlight run at some point, and if it's early then everyone will go crazy for him. If he lands in a RBBC, that's where his value will go up the most, but he should thrive in any system. I'm a big fan.

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While there's not a lot of elite talent at the top, it's very deep in the mid range. Probably deeper than I've ever seen before. Landing spot is going to make or break a lot of these kids. There's a good 12-16 kids who could easily be a flex back right out of the gate. It's a good year if you need RB depth and you have a lot of mid-range picks to make that happen. Nobody that'll I'd call a superstar yet, but I've just completed my first round of observations... hours upon hours upon DAYS upon WEEKS.... exhausting with a draft class this deep.

Targeting Terrace around 2.2 in my 12t SF
Might take a shot at Frieiermuth or Jordan with my late 2nd or mid 3rd
Perhaps Kellen Mond with my late 3rd

dustyroads wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:58 amI think my true ranks reflect that where I'm drafting impacts how I look at ceiling vs. floor. In the 1st and often times 2nd round, I prefer to lean a bit towards high floor as they are the safer plays and I think missing on 1st round picks can be brutal on your roster, especially if doing it multiple years in a row. I'd rather wind up with a definite WR2/3 for 6-8 years out of that 1st round pick than risk getting nothing while taking a swing at a potentially WR1 with more variability. By end of round 2, and definitely round 3, I'll shift my rankings to push up higher ceiling guys (and also reach further bypassing consensus "value" to get my guy), as the hit rates tend to get lower and lower in the later rounds it's been my strategy to swing for the fences with these picks more knowing a hit could be a difference maker on the roster, whereas a hit here on a high floor guy may also only have the upside of being a matchup based flex play or a bye week fill-in.

I definitely see this logic. I'll do versions of this, depending on league and roster. Definitely like to swing harder later in rounds, but if the trade market is tight, lineups/rosters deep, and I'm a contender with production needs, I can see going more floor focused. In one league where I "knew" I was many years away from finishing my rebuild, I took Da'Rick Rogers earlier than I otherwise would. I knew several teams who were looking for elite and/or young WRs, so if he hit, I could decide to flip for a (very healthy) profit.

To me, Kupp is a good recent example of a good floor pick. NFL ready skillset, proven college production. The fact he got an immediate opportunity and he seized it catapulted his dynasty (trade) value.

This piece will be less useful for non IDPers- https://www.pff.com/news/draft-10-boom- ... -nfl-draft

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:30 pm

dustyroads wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:58 amI think my true ranks reflect that where I'm drafting impacts how I look at ceiling vs. floor. In the 1st and often times 2nd round, I prefer to lean a bit towards high floor as they are the safer plays and I think missing on 1st round picks can be brutal on your roster, especially if doing it multiple years in a row. I'd rather wind up with a definite WR2/3 for 6-8 years out of that 1st round pick than risk getting nothing while taking a swing at a potentially WR1 with more variability. By end of round 2, and definitely round 3, I'll shift my rankings to push up higher ceiling guys (and also reach further bypassing consensus "value" to get my guy), as the hit rates tend to get lower and lower in the later rounds it's been my strategy to swing for the fences with these picks more knowing a hit could be a difference maker on the roster, whereas a hit here on a high floor guy may also only have the upside of being a matchup based flex play or a bye week fill-in.

I definitely see this logic. I'll do versions of this, depending on league and roster. Definitely like to swing harder later in rounds, but if the trade market is tight, lineups/rosters deep, and I'm a contender with production needs, I can see going more floor focused. In one league where I "knew" I was many years away from finishing my rebuild, I took Da'Rick Rogers earlier than I otherwise would. I knew several teams who were looking for elite and/or young WRs, so if he hit, I could decide to flip for a (very healthy) profit.

To me, Kupp is a good recent example of a good floor pick. NFL ready skillset, proven college production. The fact he got an immediate opportunity and he seized it catapulted his dynasty (trade) value.

This piece will be less useful for non IDPers- https://www.pff.com/news/draft-10-boom- ... -nfl-draft

Now there's a throwback name lol. And good point on the settings/temperature of the league with regards to roster strength and trading tendencies. It all kinda plays into it and will vary my draft lists I bring with me. In one league in particular I need to bump up my sleepers at least a full round if not more knowing how in tune they are with the same information circles I am. Like this year, my rankings have me aiming to take a flyer on Jaelon Darden early/mid 4th round; the list I make for this league I will need to put him up to at least mid-3rd to have a shot at him. I also have a well built roster where my biggest weakness is QB by far, and I may be taking TLaw 11th overall as much as I'd rather be taking Marshall or E. Moore there because it's a need and it's also a much safer floor bet to impact my roster immediately in a positive way points wise.

Ceiling:
QB: Fields, Lance
RB: Harris, Etienne, Gainwell
WR: Chase, Waddle, Marshall
Highest Floor:
QB: Lawrence, Jones
RB: Harris
WR: Chase, Bateman, Marshall, EMoore
TE: Pitts
I'll be drafting most of the guys from my high floor category barring any wild landing spots. LAC is my #1 WR landing spot.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:23 am I'm not yet done with my rookie RB write ups, but I wanna throw Pooka Williams out there. Undersized kid, kind of a Tarik Cohen with more patience and speed. He'll never be a lead back but if you have a late third or fourth and you wanna spend it on a guy who should get you some decent flex points, or someone who is sure to gain value so you can flip for a 2nd or even a 1st if he dazzles early, Pooka is your guy.

This kid is sure to make a highlight run at some point, and if it's early then everyone will go crazy for him. If he lands in a RBBC, that's where his value will go up the most, but he should thrive in any system. I'm a big fan.

===============================================================

While there's not a lot of elite talent at the top, it's very deep in the mid range. Probably deeper than I've ever seen before. Landing spot is going to make or break a lot of these kids. There's a good 12-16 kids who could easily be a flex back right out of the gate. It's a good year if you need RB depth and you have a lot of mid-range picks to make that happen. Nobody that'll I'd call a superstar yet, but I've just completed my first round of observations... hours upon hours upon DAYS upon WEEKS.... exhausting with a draft class this deep.

Being a fan of Kansas football, I was going to do my best to keep my bias out of things and just not even worry about drafting Pooka unless he is available late in a draft. Then I see people who know what to look for in running backs and scout for a living put out information like this and now I’m not sure I’ll be able to refrain from overdrafting Pooka.

I'll just park this here.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-draft-if-t ... 35157.html

Joe Tuney, who left the New England Patriots to sign with the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason, reportedly was told by someone in his camp to hide his natural intelligence. The way to do so was to answer only 39 questions so that it guaranteed he wouldn’t top the 40 mark. Thuney scored a “perfect” 39.

krtbuckeye wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:59 pm Im going to have a bit of overlap on these lists, but that pretty much would just indicate I think a guy is close to can’t miss if he’s on both.

This is exactly what I'm looking for when doing this exercise. A strong floor with a high ceiling puts his draft value high, for me. If he doesn't hit immediately, then I try to buy low. High ceiling, low floor puts him no higher than something like mid 1st, depending on position/league. Low ceiling and high floor makes him a sell if he hits.

I've seen several comments that this draft is filled with guys ppl are waiting to see landing spot dependent. Waddle and Etiene specifically have been called guys who can only hit their ceiling if they go to a creative offensive schemer.

What's the reverse of that? What players have the skill/build to be productive even if there's a Neanderthal at OC? I'd say Chase fits, but not Pitts, if the coaching staff wants their TE to block. Javonte Williams has a three down skillset, though you don't get points for pass blocking.

Ceiling:
Fields
Lawrence
Lance
Ettiene
Waddle
Chase
Smith
Pitts

Floor:
Lawrence
Harris
Williams
Chase
Bateman
Pitts

I'm right there with you that the two people I will be watching most closely will be ETN and Waddle as their value is the most elastic of the top ~12.

So far the aggregate votes for high ceiling AND floor overlap (studs) are as follows:

Lawrence, Chase, Pitts - 3 votes each
Fields, Najee, Marshall - 1 vote each

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:15 pm Catching up on podcasts and the like. Recall a conversation about the value of utility players. Thoughts on Amari Rodgers? Listed as a WR, ran something like in the 4.50-4.54 range. Lined up slot, wide and backfield at his proday. Bucky Brooks compared him to a less dynamic Antonio Gibson.

Thats like saying James Washington reminds you of a shorter, slower, less athletic Randy Moss

This draft is shaping up to be good TV after #2.

Who are the guys you feel are being most overlooked? Just name one at the RB, WR and TE positions. Obviously a couple choices at TE could be really good values with how silly the Pitts value is at the moment.

Zhoward88 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:37 pm Who are the guys you feel are being most overlooked? Just name one at the RB, WR and TE positions. Obviously a couple choices at TE could be really good values with how silly the Pitts value is at the moment.

I like Elijah Moore as a 2nd round slot guy. Not a big "tape" guy but what I've seen of him he jumps off of the screen for me

Zhoward88 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:37 pm Who are the guys you feel are being most overlooked? Just name one at the RB, WR and TE positions. Obviously a couple choices at TE could be really good values with how silly the Pitts value is at the moment.

RBs really depend on spots but I'll say Khalil Herbert

WR: Dyami Brown

TE: Tommy Tremble

Zhoward88 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:37 pm Who are the guys you feel are being most overlooked? Just name one at the RB, WR and TE positions. Obviously a couple choices at TE could be really good values with how silly the Pitts value is at the moment.

WR: favorite would be Elijah Moore but unfortunately I don't think he's "overlooked" anymore and in a lot of people's top 5. I think he also gets picked in the 1st round, so he'll likely move up even more. I'd say Jaelon Darden. He's got some red flags (size, senior, level of competition), but hit's a lot of positive metric indicators as well. For my money, he's the standard speedster who's super dynamic with the ball in his hands and a skill set that's normally going in the late first early second most years (and I avoid at that price tag) but this year you can get in the 4th, if not 5th, round of your rookie drafts. Reminds me of Jameson Crowder, or when taking value into account as well, Keke Coutee. By no means my favorite player, but a good bet to have very high ownership of him across my leagues for the price.

RB: Was beating the drum already along with Mike and a few others on Jaret Patterson, so I'll pivot to my other fav Rhamondre Stevenson. Everyone knows he's a tank, but I think he's a very underrated hands catcher with a great feel for finding space on breakdowns and being a solid relief valve, showed good in the screen game as well. His down field routes aren't the best, but I think he's got the ability to be coached up there due to his short area quickness and solid cuts he shows with the ball in his hands; I'm confident he can do it without the ball in his hands and easily be a 3 down back. He's probably the best pass blocking back I've watched during this draft prep. North south runner who also shows patience. He doesn't have long, breakaway speed to bring it to the house; but more than enough to hit a hole fast, a few nice moves (his spin is pretty epic for a guy that size) to pick up chunk yardage plays. The defenders in the secondary may catch him from behind, but that's because they will get plowed over if they are in front of him. So long as he's drafted by the end of round 4 in the NFL, I will also be trying to own him just about everywhere.

TE: Honestly don't love them. Brevin Jordan maybe, but I think he's getting to a price point vs. talent where there are WRs likely available when he's getting taken in mocks I've done. I'd take a free shot on one of the other guys going later yet, agree with another poster I'd probably lean Tommy Tremble. He's the best blocker of the bunch so he should be on the field. Looked good especially in PA plays. Crap for hands, but if Evan Engram still has a job with his hands and 0 blocking skills, Tremble should get enough chances.