Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[Cameron Giles]

If the draft goes:

Lawrence to the Jags
Wilson to the Jets
Fields to the 49ers

What order are you drafting them?

Fields above Wilson. Hell, I'd even be interested in trading Lawrence for Fields++. Not because I think Fields is a better QB, but the allure of a dream talent-landing spot pairing like Fields and Shanahan is really enticing given his history with QBs.

Whoever goes to the 49ers is getting an elite offensive coach, an above-average offensive line (with an elite left tackle), an elite TE, good receivers and a reliable run game.

That's a lot to get someone off to a jump start.

[Nanananananana]

[quote=Nanananananana post_id=<a href="tel:1967752">1967752</a> time=<a href="tel:1616954464">1616954464</a> user_id=28395]
If the draft goes:

Lawrence to the Jags
Wilson to the Jets
Fields to the 49ers

What order are you drafting them?

Fields above Wilson. Hell, I'd even be interested in trading Lawrence for Fields++. Not because I think Fields is a better QB, but the allure of a dream talent-landing spot pairing like Fields and Shanahan is really enticing given his history with QBs.

Whoever goes to the 49ers is getting an elite offensive coach, an above-average offensive line (with an elite left tackle), an elite TE, good receivers and a reliable run game.

That's a lot to get someone off to a jump start.
[/quote]

If the draft goes:

Lawrence to the Jags
Wilson to the Jets
Fields to the 49ers

What order are you drafting them?

Fields above Wilson. Hell, I'd even be interested in trading Lawrence for Fields++. Not because I think Fields is a better QB, but the allure of a dream talent-landing spot pairing like Fields and Shanahan is really enticing given his history with QBs.

Whoever goes to the 49ers is getting an elite offensive coach, an above-average offensive line (with an elite left tackle), an elite TE, good receivers and a reliable run game.

That's a lot to get someone off to a jump start.

I probably would take Fields over Lawrence in this case, if I couldn’t get the person at 1.2 to trade.

Apparently Kyle Shanahan isn’t even going to Fields pro day so it’s likely it doesn’t end up in this order.

[Bronco Billy]

Apparently Kyle Shanahan isn’t even going to Fields pro day so it’s likely it doesn’t end up in this order.

Mike Shanahan’s Broncos teams were notorious for not attending pro days or have publicly visible interviews of players high in the draft that they were very interested in. If he and his staff attended a pro day it was almost a lock that guy was not going to be a Bronco.

[Ice]

Agree it doesn't matter at all if a staff attends a pro day. The 49's are sending a contingent to both Alabama and Ohio State's pro day. Teams also attend pro days to size up players and discount them.

Pretty much every team but 1 went to Wilson's pro day.

Pro days are nice media events and there is some minimal use to them but it could also be a smoke screen which is quite common this time of year.

[StripesOfKC]

Agree it doesn't matter at all if a staff attends a pro day. The 49's are sending a contingent to both Alabama and Ohio State's pro day. Teams also attend pro days to size up players and discount them.

Pretty much every team but 1 went to Wilson's pro day.

Pro days are nice media events and there is some minimal use to them but it could also be a smoke screen which is quite common this time of year.

Not at all impossible but picks 1 and 2 are set and the Niners have 3 that they aren't trying to trade

They have little to no reason to "smokescreen"

[StripesOfKC]

Question for the analytics people:

How big of a deal is breakout age when the early breakout age box is already checked? (like for a Tylan Wallace or Denzel Mims/Bryan Edwards last year)

How much does an early declare/18-19 year old breakout have an edge on the same thing but a senior declare?

[Sriracha]

Question for the analytics people:

How big of a deal is breakout age when the early breakout age box is already checked? (like for a Tylan Wallace or Denzel Mims/Bryan Edwards last year)

How much does an early declare/18-19 year old breakout have an edge on the same thing but a senior declare?

If they're an early declare the difference between an 18-19 year old break out is minute (3% hit rate~)

If they're a senior declare the difference is massive between an 18-19 year old breakout (more than 20% hit rate).

The degree to which these guys break out also matters. 20% is technically a breakout, but that's less predictive than a 30%+

A lot of these metrics are unfortunately pretty useless without context.

[StripesOfKC]

Question for the analytics people:

How big of a deal is breakout age when the early breakout age box is already checked? (like for a Tylan Wallace or Denzel Mims/Bryan Edwards last year)

How much does an early declare/18-19 year old breakout have an edge on the same thing but a senior declare?

If they're an early declare the difference between an 18-19 year old break out is minute (3% hit rate~)

If they're a senior declare the difference is massive between an 18-19 year old breakout (more than 20% hit rate).

The degree to which these guys break out also matters. 20% is technically a breakout, but that's less predictive than a 30%+

A lot of these metrics are unfortunately pretty useless without context.

Ah so for a 19 year old breakout being a senior declare would be a major dent in the profile right? If I'm understanding right

Seems like Chase and Bateman are in a tier of their own--strictly analytically speaking

Some solid profiles in the Moores, Dyami and Amon Ra (who actually doesn't seem to have a hole in his profile assuming 2nd round capital) but hardly last year's class

[Sriracha]

Question for the analytics people:

How big of a deal is breakout age when the early breakout age box is already checked? (like for a Tylan Wallace or Denzel Mims/Bryan Edwards last year)

How much does an early declare/18-19 year old breakout have an edge on the same thing but a senior declare?

If they're an early declare the difference between an 18-19 year old break out is minute (3% hit rate~)

If they're a senior declare the difference is massive between an 18-19 year old breakout (more than 20% hit rate).

The degree to which these guys break out also matters. 20% is technically a breakout, but that's less predictive than a 30%+

A lot of these metrics are unfortunately pretty useless without context.

Ah so for a 19 year old breakout being a senior declare would be a major dent in the profile right? If I'm understanding right

Seems like Chase and Bateman are in a tier of their own--strictly analytically speaking

Some solid profiles in the Moores, Dyami and Amon Ra (who actually doesn't seem to have a hole in his profile assuming 2nd round capital) but hardly last year's class

Based strictly on production Chase, Rondale Moore, Bateman are the cream of the crop this year.

I've personally moved Rondale down a tier for checking in at 5'7, though I'm probably in the minority there within the analytical community. I ding Rondale for being shorter than any fantasy relevant WR producer a little more than most are for Devonta Smith's weight (at least Devonta has a couple HoF receivers in his cohort).

[StripesOfKC]

If they're an early declare the difference between an 18-19 year old break out is minute (3% hit rate~)

If they're a senior declare the difference is massive between an 18-19 year old breakout (more than 20% hit rate).

The degree to which these guys break out also matters. 20% is technically a breakout, but that's less predictive than a 30%+

A lot of these metrics are unfortunately pretty useless without context.

Ah so for a 19 year old breakout being a senior declare would be a major dent in the profile right? If I'm understanding right

Seems like Chase and Bateman are in a tier of their own--strictly analytically speaking

Some solid profiles in the Moores, Dyami and Amon Ra (who actually doesn't seem to have a hole in his profile assuming 2nd round capital) but hardly last year's class

Based strictly on production Chase, Rondale Moore, Bateman are the cream of the crop this year.

I've personally moved Rondale down a tier for checking in at 5'7, though I'm probably in the minority there within the analytical community. I ding Rondale for being shorter than any fantasy relevant WR producer a little more than most are for Devonta Smith's weight (at least Devonta has a couple HoF receivers in his cohort).

Ah I figured the measurables part of analytics already dinged Rondale a half tier below Bateman/Chase (though still WR3)

[StripesOfKC]

If they're an early declare the difference between an 18-19 year old break out is minute (3% hit rate~)

If they're a senior declare the difference is massive between an 18-19 year old breakout (more than 20% hit rate).

The degree to which these guys break out also matters. 20% is technically a breakout, but that's less predictive than a 30%+

A lot of these metrics are unfortunately pretty useless without context.

Ah so for a 19 year old breakout being a senior declare would be a major dent in the profile right? If I'm understanding right

Seems like Chase and Bateman are in a tier of their own--strictly analytically speaking

Some solid profiles in the Moores, Dyami and Amon Ra (who actually doesn't seem to have a hole in his profile assuming 2nd round capital) but hardly last year's class

Based strictly on production Chase, Rondale Moore, Bateman are the cream of the crop this year.

I've personally moved Rondale down a tier for checking in at 5'7, though I'm probably in the minority there within the analytical community. I ding Rondale for being shorter than any fantasy relevant WR producer a little more than most are for Devonta Smith's weight (at least Devonta has a couple HoF receivers in his cohort).

But I guess my question would be what dings guys like Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown and Amon Ra St Brown compared to those guys strictly on analytics

Both have 18/19 breakouts in their first two years on campus (Chase did his second year, Bateman and Moore their first) as similarly high (30-45%) college dominator ratings with early declare status at age 21

I am not saying they are as good prospects when considering tape and such but analytics alone I don't see why they would be so far behind

Just wondering if I am missing something

[Sriracha]

But I guess my question would be what dings guys like Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown and Amon Ra St Brown compared to those guys strictly on analytics

Both have 18/19 breakouts in their first two years on campus (Chase did his second year, Bateman and Moore their first) as similarly high (30-45%) college dominator ratings with early declare status at age 21

I am not saying they are as good prospects when considering tape and such but analytics alone I don't see why they would be so far behind

Just wondering if I am missing something

To be clear, analytics likes all of the guys you mentioned -- just not as much as the above 3.

You also have to consider target competition, dynamism (rushing/return yards) and strength of competition.

Elijah Moore has a very good analytical profile, but Rondale Moore's elite freshman breakout + dynamism push him into a tier above him. Both of them get dinged for being short.

Dyami Brown's dominator rating combined with a lack of target competition and unremarkable size/speed holds him back from being an elite prospect.

Amon Ra St. Brown is similarly held back by his dominator rating and unremarkable measurables.

Some data guys attach different weights to different metrics so you'll likely find some variance in how they view players, as well. I know some people have Elijah Moore as an elite prospect, for instance.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

Ah so for a 19 year old breakout being a senior declare would be a major dent in the profile right? If I'm understanding right

Seems like Chase and Bateman are in a tier of their own--strictly analytically speaking

Some solid profiles in the Moores, Dyami and Amon Ra (who actually doesn't seem to have a hole in his profile assuming 2nd round capital) but hardly last year's class

Based strictly on production Chase, Rondale Moore, Bateman are the cream of the crop this year.

I've personally moved Rondale down a tier for checking in at 5'7, though I'm probably in the minority there within the analytical community. I ding Rondale for being shorter than any fantasy relevant WR producer a little more than most are for Devonta Smith's weight (at least Devonta has a couple HoF receivers in his cohort).

But I guess my question would be what dings guys like Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown and Amon Ra St Brown compared to those guys strictly on analytics

Both have 18/19 breakouts in their first two years on campus (Chase did his second year, Bateman and Moore their first) as similarly high (30-45%) college dominator ratings with early declare status at age 21

I am not saying they are as good prospects when considering tape and such but analytics alone I don't see why they would be so far behind

Just wondering if I am missing something

If we want to look at the top 24 rated dynasty WRs:

Only 1 top 24 dynasty WR ran a 4.6 or higher. Keenan Allen. Amon-Ra St. Brown ran a 4.66. ARSB has a similar style to Keenan Allen and could be a good fantasy asset but I would say his likelihood of being more than a WR3/4 is quite low based on his speed alone.

There are no receivers below 5'9". So that hurts the Moore's profiles. Few beneath 6' actually.

Dyami Brown's dominator barely cracks the threshold. I think he is a fairly safe pick though.... a good guy to target in round 2 but I don't know how high his upside is.

Bateman and Chase are the only ones that check every single box in terms of likely day 1 or 2 capital, BOA 18/19, Dominator 30+, Sub 4.6 40, 6', BMI, sophomore production, and early declaration.
Kyle Pitts joins that cohort even if counted as a WR. That's why I will rank him right behind those 2 and Harris/Etienne. With a top-5 pick in the draft, I'm generally looking for players that check every box rather than a guy who has many holes in his game but is exceptional in any one area (i.e. Devonta Smith final season production, Rondale Moore's athleticism/freshman breakout, Jaylen Waddle's speed, Terrace Marshall's level of competition).

[StripesOfKC]

Based strictly on production Chase, Rondale Moore, Bateman are the cream of the crop this year.

I've personally moved Rondale down a tier for checking in at 5'7, though I'm probably in the minority there within the analytical community. I ding Rondale for being shorter than any fantasy relevant WR producer a little more than most are for Devonta Smith's weight (at least Devonta has a couple HoF receivers in his cohort).

But I guess my question would be what dings guys like Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown and Amon Ra St Brown compared to those guys strictly on analytics

Both have 18/19 breakouts in their first two years on campus (Chase did his second year, Bateman and Moore their first) as similarly high (30-45%) college dominator ratings with early declare status at age 21

I am not saying they are as good prospects when considering tape and such but analytics alone I don't see why they would be so far behind

Just wondering if I am missing something

If we want to look at the top 24 rated dynasty WRs:

Only 1 top 24 dynasty WR ran a 4.6 or higher. Keenan Allen. Amon-Ra St. Brown ran a 4.66. ARSB has a similar style to Keenan Allen and could be a good fantasy asset but I would say his likelihood of being more than a WR3/4 is quite low based on his speed alone.

There are no receivers below 5'9". So that hurts the Moore's profiles. Few beneath 6' actually.

Dyami Brown's dominator barely cracks the threshold. I think he is a fairly safe pick though.... a good guy to target in round 2 but I don't know how high his upside is.

Bateman and Chase are the only ones that check every single box in terms of likely day 1 or 2 capital, BOA 18/19, Dominator 30+, Sub 4.6 40, 6', BMI, sophomore production, and early declaration.
Kyle Pitts joins that cohort even if counted as a WR. That's why I will rank him right behind those 2 and Harris/Etienne. With a top-5 pick in the draft, I'm generally looking for players that check every box rather than a guy who has many holes in his game but is exceptional in any one area (i.e. Devonta Smith final season production, Rondale Moore's athleticism/freshman breakout, Jaylen Waddle's speed, Terrace Marshall's level of competition).

Chase and Bateman are my 1-2 as well. Was just looking for a deeper breakdown for a few of these and I think you hit it.

I agree on Rondale and that we haven't really seen anyone like him hit, as well as ARSB's likely limited upside.

Just wasn't sure if stuff like athleticism was counted as a part of the analytical process

[jenkins.math]

We all have biases in fantasy football, and mine is the small burner at WR. I know I won't have any Rondale Moore shares at his current ADP. I'll be letting someone else step on that landmine.

No matter how many threads we have suggesting the best small speedster is more than just that, their teams seem to only use them on 9 routes. I pretty much just avoid those guys now, and if that means I missed out, so be it.