Dynasty League Football Forum

ninotoreS wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:05 am Warrick Dunn was less than 190lbs, with worse BMI than Cohen.

I would like to see Cohen put on 5-10 more lbs before he becomes a 10-15 carries a week guy, but the thing is, he can probably add that much weight pretty easily without losing any speed/burst, and probably will just from being on NFL-regimen weight-training. Cohen's low bench-rep score only seems to confirm that he, like many college players, didn't spend much time in the gym. He will now, because the NFL does a lot more to encourage it.

Dunn is obviously still an amazing outlier himself, but there's your precedent, OP.

Also, as the above all implies, I think you're misstepping putting so much emphasis on height when searching for relevant precedent. Height doesn't make a guy more durable, and other than a minor benefit to pass-catching and blocking ability, it doesn't help RBs. Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here.

"Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here." Love this.

The thing is that in college programs lifting IS required and regimented. In my opinion we didn't lift often enough, and did not achieve anywhere near what we needed to grow as much as we could have. I think we ran too often, for too much endurance, and did not lift heavy enough. We needed to be lifting much higher percentages of our maxes, much more often, and with more volume. As I have dove deeper into understanding powerlifting ten years later I know for a fact we didn't. Then again, the average instagram model now has a better understanding of weight training than people did 10-15 years ago, so I can't say how advanced it has gotten. All I know is my strength and conditioning coach was a s*** show and it is a travesty he was paid to do his job at the level he did... old washed up, ex-college FB who sniffed the NFL and did not understand the science of lifting at all smh....

In regards to your point specifically, some players THRIVE in the pros at lifting and preparation because it is now THEIR FULL-TIME EXTREMELY HIGHLY PAID BUT ALSO VOLATILE JOB which they feed their family with. They don't have to do things like BE A FULL TIME COLLEGE STUDENT (our system is so stupid), but at the same time, others (TRICH is the best example) fail in the NFL at properly preparing (amongst on-field failings, just talking about weight room with him right now). TRich talked about how at Alabama everything was laid out from schedule to exactly how much he would lift and when, it is not as controlled in the NFL and that freedom led him to slack off. Meanwhile JJ Watt has a bed at the facility (literally).

Point just being, the NFL will not for sure put mass on a given player, it's up to their work ethic.

ANYWAY, tangent aside, Dunn was a beast and the closest to a standalone back at that size and he still had Mike Alstott to BASH defenses (and be a pretty darn good all-around back, amazing for a fullback). A guy like Cohen will simply ALWAYS be a part of a committee, at best, in today's NFL. I personally do not pursue players of that nature. At the same time, if you are a guy who likes rostering a Sproles or a Riddick, Cohen certainly has that upside and I wouldn't be mad at anybody for going after him.

I do not own Cohen, I almost had him but he got taken just before me.

I thought he looked great in preseason and great yesterday.

A lot of people are all about all these formulas. I have always been an eye test guy and that is something Cohen passes for me. He plays bigger than he is and is heavily involved.

He is probably too expensive to buy, but his owners should be happy and Howard owners should be worried.

Phaded wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:12 am I do not own Cohen, I almost had him but he got taken just before me.

I thought he looked great in preseason and great yesterday.

A lot of people are all about all these formulas. I have always been an eye test guy and that is something Cohen passes for me. He plays bigger than he is and is heavily involved.

He is probably too expensive to buy, but his owners should be happy and Howard owners should be worried.

Agree with all of this. I wouldn't want him as my regular starter, but you could do much worse for a down the bench guy who you could use to spot-start in a pinch.

I agree pretty much with whats been said above. He's never going to be a bellcow back, but I don't think anyone expected that. But in PPR, guys like Riddick, Sproles and Woodhead have very real value. Not every team is lucky enough to have Bell, DJ or Zeke. I'm just happy to have a guy on my team that is fun to root for and is exciting to watch every Sunday.

If he put on 10lbs of muscle could he be a Sproles though? I mean to me that is his cap.

He's basically a Darren Sproles type player. Sproles came into NFL listed at 5'6", 187lb and ran a 4.46 at combine. Cohen is listed at 5'6", 179lb and ran a 4.42. Obviously depending on where you look, the weight will fluctuate a little. If Cohen is as productive as Sproles has been, that is a very useful RB in dynasty and especially PPR.

It seems there may be some confusion between small and short.

Cohen is short. BMI isn't the best indicator for a RB but it's one i like to use in the overall.

Cohen has a BMI of 28.9 which is extremely close to AP at 28.6, even a bit higher.

Zeke has a BMI of 30.5
Mccoy has a BMI of 29.8

Just some quick examples, im sure there are many more that probably make this look better or worse than i describe and below:

DAT has a BMI of 25.3
Pumphrey BMI of 25.1

These guys I consider small.


Cohen has always been super talented, and electric playmaker, and played in 11, 11, 12, 12, games in college and handled 206, 222, 289, 249 touches per year without injury.

I think we probably saw his floor rushing the ball yesterday with 5-6 rushes a game, however we know he can handle more from college usage. We probably also saw his ceiling as far as targets go as well. But 12 is a good number. I highly doubt he'll ever have a top 12 season in points, however this guy has top 15 upside and will probably settle into the top 20 for a few years.

The time to get him is now, even after the big game. He's been giving the bears chunk plays since he stepped on the field day 1. They lack any kind of pass catchers that are playmakers right now, i suspect he'll get 7-8 targets a game at least and he knows what to do with them.

Don't leave him off your list because he's short. The kid can play, and will continue to see the field for the bears.

Quality post Cleats. Well said.

Cohen certainly has a role in ppr. I don't think anyone is looking at him as a feature back. During bye weeks or when injuries pile up, Cohen certainly could provide some value and production. Not sure I'd break the bank for him in blind bidding dollars and I'm certainly not going to go out and offer a future 1st or 2nd after seeing one game's worth of play, but, I wouldn't dismiss him solely because he is vertically challenged.

I liked what I saw yesterday, him going in the option makes me think the Bears are committing to him in some regards.

I am buying all day at the cost of a 2nd. A 22 year old Darren Sproles is pretty darn valuable. I'll take 8-10 years of a solid flex play or RB2 option during bye weeks/injuries. Heck these guys like Sproles and Woodhead have even put up the occasional RB1 season.

But I don't think anyone is selling for a 2nd. Seems like one of those scenarios where everyone that has him values him as a future 1st, but everyone buying values him at a future 2nd.

It makes sense when you think about it. The people that don't see much value in him because he's just a gadget or passing down back aren't likely to have him in the first place, because that was always his upside. So anyone that already invested in him already knew that, and in that sense this game was pretty much an absolutely best case scenario in what they were hoping for, so why would they suddenly sell now?

jeffster wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:35 am Warrick Dunn is 3" taller, 187 pounds

Exactly, three inches taller. Mass spread out over a longer frame doesn't enhance durability. Did you get to my last paragraph before replying?

... and was drafted 20 years ago

Irrelevant. Players were huge and fast in the 90s, too. Show me the data proving otherwise.

Sproles seems like a better comp

Sproles is fine too. I bring up Dunn foremost because Dunn was actually a feature-back with several (good) seasons of 200+ carries.

I am of the opinion Sproles could have done what Dunn did if only a team had actually bothered to try and see if he could handle a heavy rushing load. The fact that he's 34 now and still in the league is testament to the mileage the NFL never got out of him earlier in his career. Woodhead too, incidentally; both players handled a huge load in college with aplomb, and I firmly believe could've handled 15-20 carries a week in the NFL when they were younger.

But it was never attempted, and so I put forward Dunn as the proven outlier precedent Cohen can best aspire to.

Being not-the-shortest-person-on-the-field seems like it matters quite a bit for receiving

'Quite a bit'? No. It helps the QB see the RB over the linemen running his route, but that's really it (catch-radius doesn't matter much considering how short the average depth-of-target is with RB routes). When you look at RBs that have had prolific seasons as receivers recently (70+ receptions), you get guys like Sproles (5'6"), Woodhead (5'8"), and Freeman (5'8"). Obviously height isn't a major issue for pass-catching RBs.

all else equal

Not equal at all. Haven't you ever noticed that RBs that are too tall usually don't succeed long-term in the NFL? In terms of pure ball-carrying, being short is only a benefit. The defense has more trouble seeing the RB at the line-of-scrimmage if he's short. If you read about the careers of guys like MJD and Rice, and now new guys like Freeman, a common refrain is that tacklers had/have trouble keeping them in sight at the first-level.

Obviously none of Cohen's handicaps are impossible to overcome on their own. But all three together is, as I pointed out, unprecedented.

Dunn was unprecedented. But you're wrong on the height being an actual handicap. Height in and of itself is a red herring. It's just the mass, dude. It's only the mass. Cohen gets up to near 190 (with muscle, ofc, not fat), and I firmly believe he'll have the mass at 5'6" necessary to start in the NFL. The play-strength would improve in parallel (this is what bench-reps are really trying to measure, btw).

On what grounds do you think BMI is an important stat, at all? I mean, cleats just suggested that Cohen and AP are similar. Shouldn't that raise a huge alarm?

He's historically small. The argument seems to be that he's light, but it's okay because he's short too? If that's the case, where are all the other RBs at 5'6, 179 pounds? Shouldn't there be more than I can count on my fingers in the last 18 years?

Would it be better if he was 5'5?

jeffster wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:38 pm On what grounds do you think BMI is an important stat, at all? I mean, cleats just suggested that Cohen and AP are similar. Shouldn't that raise a huge alarm?

He's historically small. The argument seems to be that he's light, but it's okay because he's short too? If that's the case, where are all the other RBs at 5'6, 179 pounds? Shouldn't there be more than I can count on my fingers in the last 18 years?

Would it be better if he was 5'5?

Thank you.

jeffster wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:38 pm On what grounds do you think BMI is an important stat, at all? I mean, cleats just suggested that Cohen and AP are similar. Shouldn't that raise a huge alarm?

He's historically small. The argument seems to be that he's light, but it's okay because he's short too? If that's the case, where are all the other RBs at 5'6, 179 pounds? Shouldn't there be more than I can count on my fingers in the last 18 years?

Would it be better if he was 5'5?

What does he have to do, to be "successful"?

score ff points, right?

Ok Spartan slappy, we get it. You're a click baiter and nothing you could see would ever change your mind. MJD was a Fake, his measurables "proved" it would be impossible to have any prolonged success at his size. Historically nobody his size had ever done the volume he did. On the other end of the spectrum Calvin should've been a bust. Only Harold Carmichael had a highly successful career @ 6'5" or taller. Historically Calvin was too tall to be considered for sustainable success. There, I proved my point .