New Heights of Rookie Fever

[Shankopotamus]

These picks have been changing hands like crazy in my league.
1.04 for Lev Bell and Bridgewater
1.02 + David Johnson for Hopkins
1.02 for DJ Chark
i traded my 1.11 and next years first for Chubb during last season(fell short in the ship)


a bunch of the picks have changed hands moving up and down in the first round with other pieces in the deals.

the last two years I've gathered the following players from trading away my 2019, 2020, & 2021 firsts:
DK Metcalf
DJ Moore
Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield
Le'veon Bell
Teddy Bridgewater
Nick Chubb

[dustyroads]

This thread inspired me to take the value over the pick.
Just pulled the trigger on trading away my 2.2 for Mark Andrews. (also gave 5.2 and got 4.2)

I just took over for this team. League is PPR but 1.5 PPR for TEs. My current TE's were Jack Doyle/Jimmy Graham.

It sucks because this league drafts like 1 round every 3 weeks. (we just finished round 1) and now I don't have a pick in round 2.

BUT I GOT A LEGIT TIGHT END!

Holy crap that is a steal

Yeah great deal.

I'm not saying picks are not over valued by some. But the people complaining most in this thread are over valuing what they are offering for the picks.

Agree with this. And also seem to be suffering from that salty trade negotiating tactic of seeking something in a trade, and when their offer is declined, saying how it's not worth anything anyway lol. "These picks are worthless!!! Barely a 50% hit rate, if that!!! Just give them to me!! No? Well good luck with that garbage than, wasn't even worth what I was offering, I was just being generous." Like when someone tried to buy AB off me in 2012 for a 3rd round pick, and when I declined I was lambasted about how trash he was and a 1 dimensional WR who had no nuance, would never be more than a flex play at best, yada yada yada.

[dynastyninja]

Like when someone tried to buy AB off me in 2012 for a 3rd round pick, and when I declined I was lambasted about how trash he was and a 1 dimensional WR who had no nuance, would never be more than a flex play at best, yada yada yada.

Yep, that's exactly what I'm doing here. You got me. How could I ever expect to get the 1.05 for OBJ?

[bjd5211]

So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.

I don't know about OP, but I offered Julio Jones for 2 1sts, 1.3 and 1.7, and was told to go bleep myself.
It's bad.

No one was willing to pay that for Julio last year or 2 years ago, obviously he won't go for that this year. Julio's value has been depressed for years.

[dustyroads]

This. I think we found why you're having issues trading for picks here.

I get what you guys are saying (although I disagree). I've not got the feeling that I was close on any of those offers, though, which is wild. These picks are untouchable and people are just ignoring the fact that first rounders to bust and they bust pretty regularly.

TBH it's because none of them aside from OBJ for 1.05 IS close. And that seems to not just be the sentiment in your league, but on this board. I think you are drastically overvaluing the players you are offering, which is causing your perception that the rookie picks are being drastically overvalued when the offers are denied. I think your valuation is just off.

That being said, rookie picks are always inherently "over-valued", but it's like that every year, and this one doesn't seem any different to me. In fact, 1.01 is more available in what I've seen in my leagues and on boards because there is no clear-cut pick there. People are more willing to move it, whether moving down or out all-together, because there isn't much consensus on the pick. Either way, we always see pick value spike after the NFL draft. And as any leagues respective fantasy draft gets closer, the value tends to continue creeping up. The best time to buy and sell picks for value once the NFL draft has taken place, is and has always been IMO during the fantasy draft itself. If you are looking to move into the first, that will be your best opportunity. When the tier breaks after the top 4-5 RBs are taken, the next tier break after Lamb, Jeudy, "fill in the third guy a few people are high on" are taken, etc. When that guy who thought he was getting Cam Akers at 7 overall gets snuck and is panicking; then maybe you could sneak in and offer him OBJ, Connor, and a future pick and come into the first round. Otherwise, you'll need to up your offers.

The best time to sell vets is at the trade deadline when people need to make a push to the playoffs, or think they need just one more guy putting up solid points to get them the championship, at least from my experience. November of 2019 was when you should have been acquiring 2020 1st rounders for vets IMO. Instead, you're literally picking the worst time over the course of a league year to try to sell vets for a value AND trying to acquire rookie draft picks the time when rookie picks are valued the highest.... I'm really not surprised.

You seemed to have ignored this post so I'll bold the parts which 1. Go against what you just posted and 2. Explain explicitly why you aren't getting traction with your offers.

[dustyroads]

Like when someone tried to buy AB off me in 2012 for a 3rd round pick, and when I declined I was lambasted about how trash he was and a 1 dimensional WR who had no nuance, would never be more than a flex play at best, yada yada yada.

Yep, that's exactly what I'm doing here. You got me. How could I ever expect to get the 1.05 for OBJ?

Not trying to be a jerk, just not getting what you were looking for/expecting with this thread. This is how dynasty has always been for as long as I've been playing. You missed the boat on acquiring rookie picks. From a basic economic stand point; you're picking a time when your "money" value in aging veterans is at it's lowest and trying to purchase "goods" in rookie picks when their value is at it's highest. It's just bad process, especially if you're doing it just to get in the game. If you have a specific player in mind you want, your best value at this point will be trying to get in before they are picked during the draft itself, or even trading for that player post draft. But trying to get picks right now for the sake of having them is a losing bet for the most part.

And we've all been there with regards to overvaluing our own team/players with regards to trading. I do it all the time. But I think you need to accept that the majority of your trade offers must have been pretty bad to get little to no response on 100 of them... and it seems like impartial parties here on the boards agree.

[joeya2001]

So you're trying to buy the picks? Sounds like you're buying into the rookie hyper as well. Hard to know how bad rookie fever is in your league without examples of the trades you've offered to acquire picks.

I don't know about OP, but I offered Julio Jones for 2 1sts, 1.3 and 1.7, and was told to go bleep myself.
It's bad.

No one was willing to pay that for Julio last year or 2 years ago, obviously he won't go for that this year. Julio's value has been depressed for years.

Its sad because hes probably still has 2-4 years of elite production. I bought him during a playoff run, cost me 2020 1st 2021 1st, I came in second, but none the less I'm still glad to have him.

[Jigga94]

I don't know about OP, but I offered Julio Jones for 2 1sts, 1.3 and 1.7, and was told to go bleep myself.
It's bad.

No one was willing to pay that for Julio last year or 2 years ago, obviously he won't go for that this year. Julio's value has been depressed for years.

Its sad because hes probably still has 2-4 years of elite production. I bought him during a playoff run, cost me 2020 1st 2021 1st, I came in second, but none the less I'm still glad to have him.

I'd agree. Bought a few years ago. Would be awesome to watch him go as long as Fitz has. Selling now would likely mean getting a mid to late first. I'd rather hold him, enjoy what production I get left instead of expect top rookie picks

[dynastyninja]

I've taken advantage of this situation big time this year. Was able to get Cooper and Golladay for late 1st or less each.

I saw Kupp get traded for the 1.11

[FantasyFreak]

I've taken advantage of this situation big time this year. Was able to get Cooper and Golladay for late 1st or less each.

I saw Kupp get traded for the 1.11

Gross

[hoos89]

I'm experiencing the same thing. For the first time ever in one of my leagues, not a single trade happened in the first round, despite every single person (not me though) asking for a trade back. Tons of trade talks, tons of offers, not a single deal was made.

I tried to trade back into the end of the 1st round, no dice. I hypothetically offered a future 1/2/2/3, and even that was declined. He said I would have to add Waller on top of that and even then he'd sit on it. I lol'd.

It's bananas man.

People are asking a lot to trade back but not willing to spend that much to trade up, it seems. I've still managed to do 3 trades involving 2020 firsts across 2 leagues though (but I had accumulated a ton of 2020 draft capital, which helped).

I've taken advantage of this situation big time this year. Was able to get Cooper and Golladay for late 1st or less each.

I saw Kupp get traded for the 1.11

Really wish people were going that nuts in either of my leagues.

[ericanadian]

The problem with a player for pick situation is that pick’s value still packs a lot of upside. Unless your guy has 1.1 value, the owner of the pick always has the hope that a guy will fall to them. You’re paying for that upside when you offer a trade pre-draft. If you want the 1.5 because there is someone there that you think will fall to that spot, why not just wait until the draft and no one falls so you can eliminate that upside from the equation?

[Chwf3rd]

I'm having issues moving around in rookie drafts as well.

I've had the 2nd overall pick in two drafts and couldn't generate any real interest. For comparison, last year I traded the 1.02 for 1.08 + 2020 1st.

[hoos89]

I'm having issues moving around in rookie drafts as well.

I've had the 2nd overall pick in two drafts and couldn't generate any real interest. For comparison, last year I traded the 1.02 for 1.08 + 2020 1st.

That offer made sense last year, but I personally would not move down 6 spots from 1.02 for a 2021 first. There's a lot more perceived strength at the top of this year's draft and 1.08 is where things start to get a bit jumbled.

[mild]

Like when someone tried to buy AB off me in 2012 for a 3rd round pick, and when I declined I was lambasted about how trash he was and a 1 dimensional WR who had no nuance, would never be more than a flex play at best, yada yada yada.

Yep, that's exactly what I'm doing here. You got me. How could I ever expect to get the 1.05 for OBJ?

Uhhh... That's Jerry Jeudy or Ceedee Lamb, or potentially Dobbins.

I don't think it's a hot take to prefer any of those players this year and going forward to OBJ. What has he done for you lately, and do you enjoy watching the Browns?

This thread is hilarious. We've known this draft is crazy deep for 2+ years now. You had time to make the moves... quit complaining.

1.10 in a Superflex is quite likely Cam Akers this year. 1.08 is potentially Lamb, Jeudy, or Swift. This is why you are having trouble moving picks. They ARE worth more this year.