fantasy impact of coronavirus

[FantasyFreak]

The idea of good/great players entering the supplemental draft is very intriguing, and has me wondering this... Would some of the superstar players like Najee Harris, ETN, Trevor Lawrence, etc., consider doing this? And, probably more importantly (for them, at least), would they have the potential to earn the same type of rookie contract earnings vs. waiting for the 2021 draft? I have no clue how the supplemental draft works anyways, but have seen indications that using a supplemental draft pick means giving up that same round draft pick the following year.

As I am writing this, I read the Wikipedia page for the NFL Supplemental Draft (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ntal_draft), but the answers to some of my questions still aren't clear to me. For instance, if the lower grouping of NFL teams (those with less than 6 wins) both bid a 1st round on a projected superstar, who actually gets them, and what is that player's earnings potential for that supplemental draft pick. Is it anywhere close to that of something like the 1.01-1.10 in the actual NFL draft?

Lawrence can't, regardless.

[FantasyFreak]

I still feel, regardless of position, (and yes, I know RB's aren't going to be affected like WR's,) that all rookies will be negatively affected year 1 with limited off season programs. I don't buy the narrative that because they are RB's, they won't be affected, and I have just drafted CEH, JT and Dobbins in various leagues.

[esloan35]

It’s going to be interesting for sure

[TimeWillTell]

Agree with FF, all will be impacted to some degree and veterans, especially earlier in the season, will likely be more involved than rookies. Doesn't matter to me though, I'm holding the course drafting guys based on talent and outlook to 2021 and beyond.

[IR1]

Still drafting based on value, but the current situation could affect my trades. I've generally sacrificed depth for elite talent, but if there is a season, I could see individual players missing time due to illness. There may be a case for retaining depth this year over a slight bump in quality.

[ericanadian]

I still feel, regardless of position, (and yes, I know RB's aren't going to be affected like WR's,) that all rookies will be negatively affected year 1 with limited off season programs. I don't buy the narrative that because they are RB's, they won't be affected, and I have just drafted CEH, JT and Dobbins in various leagues.

For sure. How many guys have we seen sit at the beginning of their career because they can’t pass block or have correctable fumbling issues.

I also worry about UDFAs and late round picks. Not sure how some of these guys make a roster with no preseason.

[FantasyFreak]

I still feel, regardless of position, (and yes, I know RB's aren't going to be affected like WR's,) that all rookies will be negatively affected year 1 with limited off season programs. I don't buy the narrative that because they are RB's, they won't be affected, and I have just drafted CEH, JT and Dobbins in various leagues.

For sure. How many guys have we seen sit at the beginning of their career because they can’t pass block or have correctable fumbling issues.

I also worry about UDFAs and late round picks. Not sure how some of these guys make a roster with no preseason.

For sure. That's why I loved what my Raiders did. Traded up into the 4th. No picks made after round 4. I firmly believe that was the thought process.

[Hottoddies]

I still feel, regardless of position, (and yes, I know RB's aren't going to be affected like WR's,) that all rookies will be negatively affected year 1 with limited off season programs. I don't buy the narrative that because they are RB's, they won't be affected, and I have just drafted CEH, JT and Dobbins in various leagues.

For sure. How many guys have we seen sit at the beginning of their career because they can’t pass block or have correctable fumbling issues.

I also worry about UDFAs and late round picks. Not sure how some of these guys make a roster with no preseason.

For sure. That's why I loved what my Raiders did. Traded up into the 4th. No picks made after round 4. I firmly believe that was the thought process.

I think that Kansas City had this in mind as well when they made it a priority keep as much of their roster intact as they could this offseason. It could be a major advantage going into this season.

[esloan35]

I'm starting to set up my teams that there isn't going to be a 2020 season. This thing is a mess and if one of these guys or a head coach die from this its gong to go dark until they get a treatment or vaccine.

[CGW]

I'm starting to set up my teams that there isn't going to be a 2020 season. This thing is a mess and if one of these guys or a head coach die from this its gong to go dark until they get a treatment or vaccine.

It's way to early to expect a cancelled season. It's a possibility, but If I have a competitive team i'm not rolling over to avoid the 2020 season. Actually, I will argue the opposite. My roster of solid vets has a better chance than those relying on 2020 rookies that may not get a full preseason of work in.

22 states are either opened or partially opened as of early May. In Indiana youth sports leagues will begin in June. High school sports July 1st. We will know soon how all this plays out. Young, healthy people have very little impacts from the virus. We should learn a lot as we reopen in stages. The NFL will likely learn a lot.

My hope is that life slowly returns to normal and those who are at risk continue to be cautious.

[Ray Finkle]

It's way to early to expect a cancelled season. It's a possibility, but If I have a competitive team i'm not rolling over to avoid the 2020 season. Actually, I will argue the opposite. My roster of solid vets has a better chance than those relying on 2020 rookies that may not get a full preseason of work in.

I agree. I am valuing vets and guys in familiar situations more than ever this season. Especially if there is a shortened season, I don’t need guys getting acclimated to a new team or scheme. If the NFL only squeezes in 12 games that means my fantasy team only has about 8 regular season games so a slow start is not affordable.

[Csl312]

22 states are either opened or partially opened as of early May. In Indiana youth sports leagues will begin in June. High school sports July 1st. We will know soon how all this plays out. Young, healthy people have very little impacts from the virus. We should learn a lot as we reopen in stages. The NFL will likely learn a lot.

Just want to comment on 2 things this brings up.

1) Young people being relatively unaffected doesn't really make a difference. The whole point is that asymptomatic carriers spread the disease - so all the young people who are infected and never get more than a sore throat may be more likely to spread it to vulnerable people than someone who is obviously ill and can be easily identified as a risk. Also some young completely healthy people have died - I have no idea what would happen of an athlete got sick and died from their sport but I can't imagine it would be short of disaster for that league legally and PR wise. I imagine though they would cancel the remainder of the NFL season if a player ended up in an ICU (to make this a little more on topic, no idea how we handle that of the NFL stops after 6 weeks. I assume we just act like this season never happened from a fantasy standpoint).

2) As things start to open up there is the risk that a new big wave of infections pops up. If that happens and death rates spike higher than they have been to date I think it is likely we end up with a more severe lockdown than we have had to date. This would obviously be really bad for most things in the country but the relevant piece here is the NFL and any other sports would not happen for at least the next year at that point.

I'm hopeful that things go well and we have a relatively normal football season - likely without fans in the stands. But I'm also realistic I think in considering that a very fragile proposition.

[CGW]

22 states are either opened or partially opened as of early May. In Indiana youth sports leagues will begin in June. High school sports July 1st. We will know soon how all this plays out. Young, healthy people have very little impacts from the virus. We should learn a lot as we reopen in stages. The NFL will likely learn a lot.

Just want to comment on 2 things this brings up.

1) Young people being relatively unaffected doesn't really make a difference. The whole point is that asymptomatic carriers spread the disease - so all the young people who are infected and never get more than a sore throat may be more likely to spread it to vulnerable people than someone who is obviously ill and can be easily identified as a risk. Also some young completely healthy people have died - I have no idea what would happen of an athlete got sick and died from their sport but I can't imagine it would be short of disaster for that league legally and PR wise. I imagine though they would cancel the remainder of the NFL season if a player ended up in an ICU (to make this a little more on topic, no idea how we handle that of the NFL stops after 6 weeks. I assume we just act like this season never happened from a fantasy standpoint).

2) As things start to open up there is the risk that a new big wave of infections pops up. If that happens and death rates spike higher than they have been to date I think it is likely we end up with a more severe lockdown than we have had to date. This would obviously be really bad for most things in the country but the relevant piece here is the NFL and any other sports would not happen for at least the next year at that point.

I'm hopeful that things go well and we have a relatively normal football season - likely without fans in the stands. But I'm also realistic I think in considering that a very fragile proposition.

Young people aren't impacted themselves, but as youth sports and the country as a whole open back up we will see how the spread continues. There is also something called herd immunity that as healthy people get the virus is lowers the R0 values of the virus by reducing the number of viable hosts. Who knows if it works. Sweden and Japan will be good examples, but we won't know til down the road when we can compare.

On the second point, I doubt anyone wants anyone to die from this virus. I also don't want anyone to die from the effects of CTE, or an infection from a broken leg sustained in the league. These guys risk their lives every single day they put on a helmet, just like I do when I get behind the wheel of a vehicle.

I'm not saying these guys should risks their lives playing through this virus. But I do wonder how many would, if given the choice. If you gave me the choice to make 500k a year playing football despite the virus risk, I would do it. That said, I can guarantee my employer isn't going to give me the option...i've been in the office every day during this lockdown.

It's all speculation at this point. There's a ton of time before the fall. Could get way worse, it could be nearly gone. Who knows. I know I look forward to any sports being back up and running and hope it's sooner than later.

[jenkins.math]

Every 2% increase in unemployment leads to a 1% increase in suicide rate historically in the US. So if we got to 20% unemployment for a year (latest numbers have us close to 15% currently), that implies an additional 77k deaths from suicide. That would be more deaths from suicide than people who have died from coronavirus currently in the US.

I think they will have a shortened offseason of sorts. I could see the traditional 4 preseason games being utilized differently this season as well. Instead of the starters play 1 drive in game 1, then the first quarter in game 2, then the first half in game 3, and nothing in game 4; teams may alter that thinking to get longer looks at guys. Or get rookies more reps to make up for lost time.

I think they play and start games on time. The country honestly can't afford not to.

[Sinatra's Liver]

We are holding our rookie draft in early August in case there is a supplemental draft.