Dynasty League Football Forum

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:50 am

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:27 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:20 am I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.

I mean, Jacobs was a guy that didn't really have a good comp, either. Little production, terrible 40 time, first round pedigree. I'd be more concerned with Clyde if he didn't have an upper percentile burst, and clearly show his agility and strength on the field. His athleticism in a football context, other than 40, is actually quite good, to me. The burst definitely shows up when you watch him. He's not going to break long runs like JT, but his athleticism to be able to make guys miss behind the LOS is something I don't see from JT to nearly the same level. It's apples and oranges, with those two. Completely different backs, which makes the 1.01 debate that much more interesting, as it's two players with very little similarities at all.

Jacobs was also 220 and ran 4.52 at his second pro-day coming off an injury. After you adjust 4.52 to 4.57, there’s plenty of precedent for guys like that- Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, Alf Morris and Mark Ingram come to mind. He wasn’t prototypical, sure. But big backs without great athleticism have succeeded. With regard to Helaire, I think the only significant fantasy assets who were that small and that slow are Singletary and Dion Lewis.

Anyways, more importantly, Jacobs was the 1.01 in a much weaker class and wasn’t a late first/early second startup value. Helaire is going 2.01 ahead of Jacobs right now (as well as going ahead of Taylor). This time last year, Jacobs was the 3.03 in startups, which felt very reasonable.

Ultimately I just feel like it’s a huge investment for a guy that was going 40 spots lower in startups before the NFL draft. With that type of capital, I would just rather have somebody who’s got a profile more consistent with sustained NFL success, and if I can trade back and get something else, even better.

I’ll get some in redraft, where his RB14 status on Yahoo looks like a strong value.

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:50 am

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:27 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:20 am I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.

I mean, Jacobs was a guy that didn't really have a good comp, either. Little production, terrible 40 time, first round pedigree. I'd be more concerned with Clyde if he didn't have an upper percentile burst, and clearly show his agility and strength on the field. His athleticism in a football context, other than 40, is actually quite good, to me. The burst definitely shows up when you watch him. He's not going to break long runs like JT, but his athleticism to be able to make guys miss behind the LOS is something I don't see from JT to nearly the same level. It's apples and oranges, with those two. Completely different backs, which makes the 1.01 debate that much more interesting, as it's two players with very little similarities at all.

Jacobs was also 220 and ran 4.52 at his second pro-day coming off an injury. After you adjust 4.52 to 4.57, there’s plenty of precedent for guys like that- Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, Alf Morris and Mark Ingram come to mind. He wasn’t prototypical, sure. But big backs without great athleticism have succeeded. With regard to Helaire, I think the only significant fantasy assets who were that small and that slow are Singletary and Dion Lewis.

Anyways, more importantly, Jacobs was the 1.01 in a much weaker class and wasn’t a late first/early second startup value. Helaire is going 2.01 ahead of Jacobs right now (as well as going ahead of Taylor). This time last year, Jacobs was the 3.03 in startups, which felt very reasonable.

Ultimately I just feel like it’s a huge investment for a guy that was going 40 spots lower in startups before the NFL draft. With that type of capital, I would just rather have somebody who’s got a profile more consistent with sustained NFL success, and if I can trade back and get something else, even better.

I’ll get some in redraft, where his RB14 status on Yahoo looks like a strong value.

AkaliWarrior wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:47 pm When I see a player with so much positivity, across the board, with almost no dissent, I'll do the head-fake and run the other direction. There are so many CEH truthers, that he's bound to fail. Even if it is up to the fantasy Gods, he's bound to be a middling talent or even a bust. Call it the Madden Cover curse of the fantasy community, but there is so much one-way love for this guy, that it's bound to come crashing down.

Lord_Varys wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:09 pm

AkaliWarrior wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:47 pm When I see a player with so much positivity, across the board, with almost no dissent, I'll do the head-fake and run the other direction. There are so many CEH truthers, that he's bound to fail. Even if it is up to the fantasy Gods, he's bound to be a middling talent or even a bust. Call it the Madden Cover curse of the fantasy community, but there is so much one-way love for this guy, that it's bound to come crashing down.

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.

There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.

There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.

There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.

There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.

There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.

PR0v3 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.

Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.

ericanadian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:16 pm

PR0v3 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm

CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.

Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.

Are they going to be doing a lot of scheming to get the ball to CEH when they have Kelce & Tyreek though? I think he might even have a fight with Watkins & Hardman.

PR0v3 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:52 pm

ericanadian wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:16 pm

PR0v3 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm

Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.

Are they going to be doing a lot of scheming to get the ball to CEH when they have Kelce & Tyreek though? I think he might even have a fight with Watkins & Hardman.

I think Andy Reid’s scheme inherently fits CEH’s skillset. I don’t think there necessarily needs to be any additional alterations to what they already do in order to get the ball in CEH’s hands in the areas of the field he thrives in. You don’t have to run specific plays designed in a specific way for a specific player in order for the general offensive structure to support a player.

In my opinion, CEH was the most talented RB in the class for what he projects to do. I don’t believe you can isolate talent in a vacuum, there has to be a defined benchmark before you can judge talent relative to it.