Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[hoos89]

The issue is really more about Gurley, I think. If teams start to feel like maybe he's lost a step then the Rams may start to see more nickle and dime packages. But also just generally speaking: I'm extremely hesitant to put a player in the conversation for overall WR1 when his production appears to be largely due to circumstance. Circumstances can change in a hurry.

[Mike from Canada]

I remember when people were worried about Welker after Moss left.

[thebeast]

He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.

What if he scores as the overall #1 WR this year and next year? How long did it take AB before people gave in and realized he was worth the top overall spot?

I am not sure it happens, but I know enough to never say never and I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a question.

Apples and oranges. Kupp has never even faced press coverage. AB is not in the realm of conversation as someone to compare him to for multiple years of the WR1 numbers, regardless of how we feel about him as a person. Kupp is a WR1, right now. Any conversation of Kupp as THE WR 1 is wasting time and way too premature at this point. JJSS was well on his way to claiming that spot before the season by many (including me) before Ben got hurt and things can change rapidly. JJSS is however still 22, whereas Kupp is 26 and has 2 other well established WR's taking coverage away, including safeties dealing with the nightmare of Cooks/Gurley.

I really liked Kupp coming out of college, and thought he'd be a good NFL receiver, and he is. He's also maximizing his skill set and situation right now. To think of him as THE WR1 in a dynasty context, or even considering him that, is such a redraft/short sighted mentality, IMO. He's never finished as a WR1 and is 26. Hie's put together about 10-12 really good games between 2 different years, with zone coverage and other really good WR's taking pressure away form him. Get a grip. He's should be nowhere near a top 5ish startup pick at this point.

It’s not apples to oranges when I am asking a question about acceptance. I never said they were the same player, but they both come from the depths of the unexpected. So maybe we should compare his rise to Adam Theilen, as age seems to be his biggest hurdle, maybe that gives him a more realistic ADP ceiling, that is top 10 WRs for sure.

[Cameron Giles]

I remember when people were worried about Welker after Moss left.

Welker wasn't good the year after Moss left. But, once Gronk broke out in his 2nd year (the next season), the coverage shifted to another primary target allowing Welker to do his thing again.

People can ignore it if they want, but there's a significant difference in playing against zone coverage from the slot all day as opposed to being asked to beat man, press, and double teams on the outside against the defenses best coverage.

Kupp is just under 80% for snaps taken from the slot this season.

[Ice]

I just want to point out for any of you that think Kupp has never faced press coverage or can't beat it.

He may not see Press Coverage much these days but in 2017 he ranked #1 in the entire NFL beating press coverage per pro football focus.

Kupp is a beast in the slot on a team that obviously highlights slot WR's. Study his routes and it is easy to see why.

Here is a short article for your reading pleasure

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... all-focus/

[ericanadian]

The issue is really more about Gurley, I think. If teams start to feel like maybe he's lost a step then the Rams may start to see more nickle and dime packages. But also just generally speaking: I'm extremely hesitant to put a player in the conversation for overall WR1 when his production appears to be largely due to circumstance. Circumstances can change in a hurry.

I guess I’d have to see more data, but I’m not sure they don’t already see a lot of nickel. Last week, the Seahawks nickel corner played 47% of the snaps. Week before that, the Bucs nickel corner played on 93% of the snaps. The Browns played their nickel corner 100% of the snaps. It’s true that teams don’t seem to go dime that often, but the Rams rarely go four wide and you’ll generally want a linebacker on the field to match up with the RB and the TE as well. Nickel still gives you five DBs to their three WRs.

[thebeast]

I just want to point out for any of you that think Kupp has never faced press coverage or can't beat it.

He may not see Press Coverage much these days but in 2017 he ranked #1 in the entire NFL beating press coverage per pro football focus.

Kupp is a beast in the slot on a team that obviously highlights slot WR's. Study his routes and it is easy to see why.

Here is a short article for your reading pleasure

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... all-focus/

Too many armchair analysts here who know what they’re talking about for that to make sense... All I know is Fantasy Football is about scoring fantasy points, which Kupp does in abundance.

[Phaded]

I just want to point out for any of you that think Kupp has never faced press coverage or can't beat it.

He may not see Press Coverage much these days but in 2017 he ranked #1 in the entire NFL beating press coverage per pro football focus.

Kupp is a beast in the slot on a team that obviously highlights slot WR's. Study his routes and it is easy to see why.

Here is a short article for your reading pleasure

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... all-focus/

That stat is not #1 in beating press coverage, it is #1 in passer rating when targeted in the slot while facing press. Off a minimum of 20 targets at that, which is an exceedingly low threshold.

Enormous difference.

[hoos89]

That stat is not #1 in beating press coverage, it is #1 in passer rating when targeted in the slot while facing press. Off a minimum of 20 targets at that, which is an exceedingly low threshold.

Enormous difference.

Had the same thought. Not sure how meaningful that stat is without knowing at least (a) how many routes he ran against press coverage and (b) how many times he was targeted when facing press coverage.

[Ice]

I just want to point out for any of you that think Kupp has never faced press coverage or can't beat it.

He may not see Press Coverage much these days but in 2017 he ranked #1 in the entire NFL beating press coverage per pro football focus.

Kupp is a beast in the slot on a team that obviously highlights slot WR's. Study his routes and it is easy to see why.

Here is a short article for your reading pleasure

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... all-focus/

That stat is not #1 in beating press coverage, it is #1 in passer rating when targeted in the slot while facing press. Off a minimum of 20 targets at that, which is an exceedingly low threshold.

Enormous difference.

The point is Kupp was the successful recipient when pressed by the defense. While not a big threshold it doesn't take D Coordinators long to determine if a player has the get off skill to beat press. Kupp obviously shows that skill set. One reason he is the highest targeted WR in the league this year is because he open and obviously getting multiple 1st reads. No chance QB rating would be good if he couldn't beat press coverage because not a chance he would be open.

If teams want to take him away then its pretty obvious they need to scheme him differently but then again that team does have multiple solid weapons so its not easy.

Kupp is simply better than most may realize. IMO he is the WR to actually own on that team. I was recently offered Woods and another good WR for Cooper and turned it down instantly even though a solid offer because I view Kupp as the legit WR1 on that team.

I think he is the best slot WR in the league.

[Ice]

From PFF 2017

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, 147.7 WR Rating

Kupp had a really encouraging rookie season in 2017 and heads into his sophomore campaign as one of the league’s most promising slot receivers. Kupp rarely faced press coverage last season, but when he did, he used his shiftiness and athleticism to produce great results. Kupp caught 18-of-23 targets for 320 yards against press coverage, posting a WR rating of 147.7 and recording a catch rate of 78.3 percent, both of which ranked third among receivers with at least 10 targets. Even more impressive is the fact that a whopping 65.0 percent of Kupp’s press targets were positively graded, which was second only to Sterling Shepherd a season ago.

Don't know his stats against press this year but he is getting 28.6% target share so far this season.

[pvillebiker]

another log for the Cooper fire

The article seems to be an exact proxy of this thread!

"It’ll take continually solid play like this for Kupp to truly be considered one of the three or four best receivers in the NFL, but he’s approaching the top 10 with this eye-popping stretch of four games."

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/1 ... ad-week-5/

[hoos89]

From PFF 2017

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, 147.7 WR Rating

Kupp had a really encouraging rookie season in 2017 and heads into his sophomore campaign as one of the league’s most promising slot receivers. Kupp rarely faced press coverage last season, but when he did, he used his shiftiness and athleticism to produce great results. Kupp caught 18-of-23 targets for 320 yards against press coverage, posting a WR rating of 147.7 and recording a catch rate of 78.3 percent, both of which ranked third among receivers with at least 10 targets. Even more impressive is the fact that a whopping 65.0 percent of Kupp’s press targets were positively graded, which was second only to Sterling Shepherd a season ago.

Don't know his stats against press this year but he is getting 28.6% target share so far this season.

Dammit...I'm trying to convince myself to sell high on Kupp, cut it out!

[Cameron Giles]

From PFF 2017

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, 147.7 WR Rating

Kupp had a really encouraging rookie season in 2017 and heads into his sophomore campaign as one of the league’s most promising slot receivers. Kupp rarely faced press coverage last season, but when he did, he used his shiftiness and athleticism to produce great results. Kupp caught 18-of-23 targets for 320 yards against press coverage, posting a WR rating of 147.7 and recording a catch rate of 78.3 percent, both of which ranked third among receivers with at least 10 targets. Even more impressive is the fact that a whopping 65.0 percent of Kupp’s press targets were positively graded, which was second only to Sterling Shepherd a season ago.

Don't know his stats against press this year but he is getting 28.6% target share so far this season.

23 targets against press...in 16 games is ridiculously low. He's still likely not seeing much press with an 80% snap rate from the slot.

[Cameron Giles]

I just want to point out for any of you that think Kupp has never faced press coverage or can't beat it.

He may not see Press Coverage much these days but in 2017 he ranked #1 in the entire NFL beating press coverage per pro football focus.

Kupp is a beast in the slot on a team that obviously highlights slot WR's. Study his routes and it is easy to see why.

Here is a short article for your reading pleasure

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... all-focus/

That stat is not #1 in beating press coverage, it is #1 in passer rating when targeted in the slot while facing press. Off a minimum of 20 targets at that, which is an exceedingly low threshold.

Enormous difference.

The point is Kupp was the successful recipient when pressed by the defense. While not a big threshold it doesn't take D Coordinators long to determine if a player has the get off skill to beat press. Kupp obviously shows that skill set. One reason he is the highest targeted WR in the league this year is because he open and obviously getting multiple 1st reads. No chance QB rating would be good if he couldn't beat press coverage because not a chance he would be open.

If teams want to take him away then its pretty obvious they need to scheme him differently but then again that team does have multiple solid weapons so its not easy.

Kupp is simply better than most may realize. IMO he is the WR to actually own on that team. I was recently offered Woods and another good WR for Cooper and turned it down instantly even though a solid offer because I view Kupp as the legit WR1 on that team.

I think he is the best slot WR in the league.

Kupp absolutely gets open and he's a solid route runner. But, the increased targets are a result of:

1. Goff not pushing the ball downfield more.
2. Kupp is usually the first read on short/intermediate throws
3. Kupp is usually playing against zone
4. Kupp ALWAYS gets free releases

Kupp is simply in one of the most unique roles you'll see for a WR.

Nobody should complain about the fantasy points, but I don't think people realize just how much of his production is scheme and situation dependent. Without players like Woods and Cooks on the outside taking away tougher defensive matchups, it would be a serious question if he can beat #1 coverage consistently, because so far he hasn't had to face #1 coverage.

Calling him the WR1 on that team is tounge-in-cheek. I'm not calling anyone a team's WR1 when they don't see the toughest defensive assignment each game.