The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:24 pm

DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
The people that get Dobbins at 1.04-1.05 are going to be very, very happy. Again, why I'm confused as to why Taylor is viewed here as being significantly better...

Dobbins looks like the most complete RB in this class.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:25 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:49 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
Just because he did it a decent amount doesn't necessarily mean he did it well. Basically the inverse of the Taylor receiving/pass pro argument, just because he wasn't asked to do it a lot doesn’t mean he was incapable.

I'm not saying Dobbins is bad at pass protection, I really don't know, but him averaging about 10 pass block reps per game doesn't automatically mean he did it well. A lot of those plays he probably didn't even have to do a whole lot, just stand guard in case the D sent an extra guy or on the rare occurance a defender got past their phenomenal OL.
Basically this^, i've heard a few places lately talk about how they don't even get taught proper pass protection in college, I've seen it written that scouts will look for willingness etc when it comes to pass blocking as technique can be taught. Also it being his worst trait doesn't mean he's bad if all his other traits are very good, Supermans worse ability is arguably his xray vision but thats still pretty damn handy (random but it was the first thing that came to mind)

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby cantguardjake » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 pm

Be careful commenting on pass protection around these parts :lol:

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:28 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:24 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
The people that get Dobbins at 1.04-1.05 are going to be very, very happy. Again, why I'm confused as to why Taylor is viewed here as being significantly better...

Dobbins looks like the most complete RB in this class.
It's the usual case of "your guy isn't my guy so he's crap" rather than "I think my guy is better but your guy is still pretty damn good as well"

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:24 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
The people that get Dobbins at 1.04-1.05 are going to be very, very happy. Again, why I'm confused as to why Taylor is viewed here as being significantly better...

Dobbins looks like the most complete RB in this class.
Agreed 100%. I think hes the safest RB and has one of the highest floors. I'm not sure he has the highest ceiling I think that's probably one of Akers, Swift or JT.

But it doesn't matter to me. Dobbins is my #1 RB and I'm good with it. It also doesn't mean that I dislike any of the guys, I just like Dobbins a bit more.

No reason to crap on or hate the other guys even though you've planted your flag on a different guy.

Just my take though

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 pm

Yeah Taylor has limited pass protection reps but it's not something I'm overly concerned with. It can be taught. Talent cannot.

I'm also not too concerned with his fumbling it's another issue that can be taught. Taylor also routinely saw 8 or more in the box because Wisconsin basically ran him on each first and 2nd down, the defenders all simply attacked the ball like a pack of hyenas and I routinely saw Taylor get tackled by multiple defenders at once.

His almost 1k touches is concerning somewhat but if I draft him I don't plan on holding him beyond his rookie contract anyways.

Side note. Deejay Dallas is another guy who's great at pass protection.
Last edited by DJB on Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Hottoddies » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 pm

DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
I'd be curious to hear what their definition of a pass block rep is. Are these successful blocks or just attempts? Is it when they actually engage a pass rusher or just in a position to do so? And what does being in position to pass block mean? Putting a quantitative number on a football action can be quite subjective at times and limited in value taken out of context.

Number of possible pass blocking reps might be:
1) Successfully stopping a pass rusher
2) Attempting to block a pass rusher
3) Staying in the backfield to pick up a possible pass rusher
4) Staying in the backfield until there are no pass rushers to pick up then releasing on a route
5) Momentarily pausing in the backfield before releasing on a route
6) chipping a pass rusher while going out on a route
7) Taking on a pass rusher after not taking a handoff on a play action
8) Stopping at the line of scrimmage after a play action fake to pick up any possible pass rushers
9) Accidentally contacting a defender after running beyond the line of scrimmage on a play action

I'm not a big fan of how PFF analyzes RBs. I get the impression from listening to a number of their podcasts that they don't really hold RBs in a very high regard. It seems like they see them as insignificant replaceable 2nd class citizens. I doubt that they put much effort into their analysis when it comes to RBs. As long as you have a high broken tackle rate and can run fast you'll do just fine.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:37 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
I'd be curious to hear what their definition of a pass block rep is. Are these successful blocks or just attempts? Is it when they actually engage a pass rusher or just in a position to do so? And what does being in position to pass block mean? Putting a quantitative number on a football action can be quite subjective at times and limited in value taken out of context.

Number of possible pass blocking reps might be:
1) Successfully stopping a pass rusher
2) Attempting to block a pass rusher
3) Staying in the backfield to pick up a possible pass rusher
4) Staying in the backfield until there are no pass rushers to pick up then releasing on a route
5) Momentarily pausing in the backfield before releasing on a route
6) chipping a pass rusher while going out on a route
7) Taking on a pass rusher after not taking a handoff on a play action
8) Stopping at the line of scrimmage after a play action fake to pick up any possible pass rushers
9) Accidentally contacting a defender after running beyond the line of scrimmage on a play action

I'm not a big fan of how PFF analyzes RBs. I get the impression from listening to a number of their podcasts that they don't really hold RBs in a very high regard. It seems like they see them as insignificant replaceable 2nd class citizens. I doubt that they put much effort into their analysis when it comes to RBs. As long as you have a high broken tackle rate and can run fast you'll do just fine.
That is true to an extent though.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 pm

DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
:wtf:

First thing I saw when I studied Dobbins was his pass protection and how good it was. To me hes the best pass protector of all the available RB's in the draft.

Those other people are crazy.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 05030?s=20

DJ had positive reviews of JT pass protection.
https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jk-d ... 2u6ng2TpDH

This isn't the only person I've heard knock his pass pro. Subjectivity is a real thing. I love Dobbins, I started the thread about him being the possible 1.01, but I don't think he has the ceiling JT does, that's for sure. If Taylor hits, he's the top player in this class.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:23 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm


...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
:wtf:

First thing I saw when I studied Dobbins was his pass protection and how good it was. To me hes the best pass protector of all the available RB's in the draft.

Those other people are crazy.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 05030?s=20

DJ had positive reviews of JT pass protection.
https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jk-d ... 2u6ng2TpDH

This isn't the only person I've heard knock his pass pro. Subjectivity is a real thing. I love Dobbins, I started the thread about him being the possible 1.01, but I don't think he has the ceiling JT does, that's for sure. If Taylor hits, he's the top player in this class.
That's fair and nor everyone is going to agree or see the same things.

And I agree on ceiling like I mentioned it earlier. JT and Swift have and I could argue Akers possibly too has a higher ceiling than Dobbins. But I still love JK.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:31 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm


...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
:wtf:

First thing I saw when I studied Dobbins was his pass protection and how good it was. To me hes the best pass protector of all the available RB's in the draft.

Those other people are crazy.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 05030?s=20

DJ had positive reviews of JT pass protection.
https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jk-d ... 2u6ng2TpDH

This isn't the only person I've heard knock his pass pro. Subjectivity is a real thing. I love Dobbins, I started the thread about him being the possible 1.01, but I don't think he has the ceiling JT does, that's for sure. If Taylor hits, he's the top player in this class.
Which is exactly why Taylor is my 1.01 barring a massive shake up in values post NFL Draft. I always go for the higher upside guys if its close and take those gambles, because that's how you get the studs a lot of times. I would rather take a guy I love with huge potential who ends up missing, than pass on that guy and watch him go on to live up to that potential on someone else's roster. All the top RBs in this class are pretty close and I can understand ranking them in any order, but like you said I think Taylor has the highest ceiling of all of them and that's what seperates him for me.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm

How do people measure ceiling? Just curious if there is a consensus or does it vary person to person.
I assume its based on athletic prowess like DGB had a huge ceiling but had a long way to go to get there.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby alewilliam789 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:32 am
The surest way to communicate that you are over thinking things and have a bad process is by saying you have Taylor outside your top 5. Frankly a ridiculous opinion.
I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value. I do not believe Taylor will produce right away, and I believe in 5 others who will. I'm not looking long term.

I drafted several copies of Kerryon Johnson over others like Guice Michel Penny etc because I was more confident in his ability to perform right away than the others. I was greatly concerned about his inability to take a hit and fall down properly and stay healthy over time, but immediate performance was the catalyst towards drafting him. I swapped him in every league almost immediately for something better. Meanwhile, I can purchase these other guys for peanuts if I want to.

I see something similar happening with JT. He's going to be valued at 1.01 or 1.02 for a long time. I think he can be had for a lot less by this time next year, so there's no way I feel comfortable using a top 5 pick on him this time around.

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.
I’m going to be honest, after reading your pass-blocking commentary and some of the other commentary you had and it crossed my mind that you were playing him down to possibly nab him.

Not sure if you’ve been busy, but your posts seem less calculated than usual.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Hottoddies » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:37 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 pm

I'm not a big fan of how PFF analyzes RBs. I get the impression from listening to a number of their podcasts that they don't really hold RBs in a very high regard. It seems like they see them as insignificant replaceable 2nd class citizens. I doubt that they put much effort into their analysis when it comes to RBs. As long as you have a high broken tackle rate and can run fast you'll do just fine.
That is true to an extent though.
Sure, braking tackles and running fast are fine traits for a RB. But for PFF it's the broken tackle rate that is the real biggie. They have said that it is the biggest indicator for future NFL success. That's why prior to the combine they had Moss as their highest rated RB. Last year it was Montgomery and the year before that it was Penny. What the heck do they even consider what constitutes a broken tackle anyway?
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:24 am

moishetreats wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:28 am
My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?
100% correct. That's because Sanders still had to pass Howard on the depth chart, and I didn't know if that would happen during year 1 or year 2. His talent & skills were never in question (for me) and I didn't want to miss out.
mild wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:10 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 pm
Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.
Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. 8-) My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans :lol:
That's for sticking your neck out there mild, I really do appreciate it, but I do indeed bring this on myself. I love the chaos for some odd reason. It's not enough to give my opinion. I want to push a few buttons too. Maybe it's being stuck at home that's making me a little more irritated than normal.

==============

Look at all you Dobbins fans! We should make a club. I'd be thrilled with Dobbins or Swift, given their landing spots are primo.

If JT went to a good running team that utilizes power... say my 49ers... I would be inclined to move JT into the same tier.
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