The Todd Gurley Thread - Currently FA

[kmbryant09]

I could see Gurley's career going like Jonathan Stewart's. High draft pick, physically gifted, but never reaching the full potential because of nagging injuries. Gurley was always getting nicked up in college, and I know AP had some college injuries too, but it could just as easily go the other way (ala Stewart). Time will tell. I can't justify his 3rd RB in dynasty ranking before he plays a game, though. Call me cautious, but they have a tough division, suspect QB play, below average receivers, and a below average OL. 8 man boxes in the NFL are a lot different than college. He better be as good as AP, or he will struggle early on, I think. I think it would be wise to use Mason and Gurley in a time share year 1. Coming back off an ACL while jumping up to the NFL is going to be tougher than most people think, IMO.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think you haven't done your homework.

Their division got a whole lot easier this off-season with practically all of San Fran's defense gone.

Nick Foles likely isn't a stud, but he's got to be a lot better than the tag-team of Austin Davis and Shaun Hill.

Their WR's aren't very good, but they at least get Brian Quick back, who missed 10 games last year.

Their OL isn't very good, but it should be better than last year with the development of Greg Robinson (#2 overall pick in 2014) and an influx of talent from the 2015 draft.

So I'd argue that their OLine will be improved, their QB is better, their WR play should be better, and their Division is slightly worse. And even with all of that out of the equation, the Rams RB's had pretty good success last year. Mason / Stacy / Cunningham combined for:

321 carries / 1,304 yards / 4.1 ypc with 79 catches / 652 yards / 10 total TD's.

And it's pretty unanimous that Gurley's talent >>>>>>>>> Mason / Stacy / Cunningham.

[FantasyFreak]

I could see Gurley's career going like Jonathan Stewart's. High draft pick, physically gifted, but never reaching the full potential because of nagging injuries. Gurley was always getting nicked up in college, and I know AP had some college injuries too, but it could just as easily go the other way (ala Stewart). Time will tell. I can't justify his 3rd RB in dynasty ranking before he plays a game, though. Call me cautious, but they have a tough division, suspect QB play, below average receivers, and a below average OL. 8 man boxes in the NFL are a lot different than college. He better be as good as AP, or he will struggle early on, I think. I think it would be wise to use Mason and Gurley in a time share year 1. Coming back off an ACL while jumping up to the NFL is going to be tougher than most people think, IMO.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think you haven't done your homework.

Their division got a whole lot easier this off-season with practically all of San Fran's defense gone.

Nick Foles likely isn't a stud, but he's got to be a lot better than the tag-team of Austin Davis and Shaun Hill.

Their WR's aren't very good, but they at least get Brian Quick back, who missed 10 games last year.

Their OL isn't very good, but it should be better than last year with the development of Greg Robinson (#2 overall pick in 2014) and an influx of talent from the 2015 draft.



So I'd argue that their OLine will be improved, their QB is better, their WR play should be better, and their Division is slightly worse. And even with all of that out of the equation, the Rams RB's had pretty good success last year. Mason / Stacy / Cunningham combined for:

321 carries / 1,304 yards / 4.1 ypc with 79 catches / 652 yards / 10 total TD's.

And it's pretty unanimous that Gurley's talent >>>>>>>>> Mason / Stacy / Cunningham.

I am including Foles in this. I think Chip Kelly made him look a lot better than he is. The SF getting a lot worse is an assumption. They have lost players, but we shall see. It's an assumption that Robinson develops. He was a poor OL last year. The "influx of talent" is also debatable. Rookies transitioning quickly on the OL is difficult, and none of their draft pedigree was even close to that of Robinson's. Brian Quick has had a few good games his entire career....that's it. So, I have done my homework, I just don't see these people you are mentioning as nearly as talented as you feel they are, I think that's where the difference of opinion lies. I am sold on Gurley's talent (and that mauler from Wisky was a great run blocker in college), but I simply don't believe in anyone else on that entire offence. They are a bunch of scrubs, if you ask me. Nobody is scared of Brian Quick. They are going to stack the box on Gurley, and make him beat them. He has never been a workhorse. His college carries show us that. I don't see him being like Eddie George, carrying 300 plus times a year. He had to take drives off in college games, because he got tired. I think he would be better off being used like Stewart was, with DeAngelo Williams. Mason is no slouch. Gurley should be held to under 20-25 touches per game, to be more efficient. Again, I think his talent is immense, but he never in his entire career hit the 30 carry mark in a game. He is not a bell cow back to me. He has the ability to play on all 3 downs, but a large amount of touches is going to wear him down quickly, I don't believe he can endure a heavy workload.

Thank you for the respectful reply, sometimes we forget that around here.

[iCantStop]

I'm kind of in between the two arguments about STL, their growth, and the division. First, St. Louis:

They drafted 4 OL prospects this year, a sign that they are intending on investing heavily in the run game-something Fisher knows very much about. They aren't blue chip pieces, like Richardson, but they will provide competition, and Haverstein is a beast. Their GM, Les Snead emphasized the fact that Gurley faced a lot of 8-man boxes in college, and acknowledged that he's going to be facing them in St. Louis, as well. Please forgive the compariaon, but AP faced 8-man boxes during his magical 2013 season with Christian Ponder at the helm, and once he broke into the second level, d-backs couldn't tackle him, nor could they catch him. He believed that he was able to break off so many long runs because the defense concentrated on stopping him at the line of scrimmage, so if he was able to squeeze through, he only had 3 men left to beat. No one is arguing that STL is about to have a prolific offense like Green Bay or Denver. But they will get Quick back, who was on his way to a solid season last year (I will acknowledge that the sample size was small).

The division is among the best in the NFL, but I do think San Fran is on the decline. Seattle is about to pay some hefty money to keep only a few players (namely Wagner and Wilson), and MAY not be the same defense they are now in a few years.

[kmbryant09]

I am including Foles in this. I think Chip Kelly made him look a lot better than he is. The SF getting a lot worse is an assumption. They have lost players, but we shall see. It's an assumption that Robinson develops. He was a poor OL last year. The "influx of talent" is also debatable. Rookies transitioning quickly on the OL is difficult, and none of their draft pedigree was even close to that of Robinson's. Brian Quick has had a few good games his entire career....that's it. So, I have done my homework, I just don't see these people you are mentioning as nearly as talented as you feel they are, I think that's where the difference of opinion lies. I am sold on Gurley's talent (and that mauler from Wisky was a great run blocker in college), but I simply don't believe in anyone else on that entire offence. They are a bunch of scrubs, if you ask me. Nobody is scared of Brian Quick. They are going to stack the box on Gurley, and make him beat them. He has never been a workhorse. His college carries show us that. I don't see him being like Eddie George, carrying 300 plus times a year. He had to take drives off in college games, because he got tired. I think he would be better off being used like Stewart was, with DeAngelo Williams. Mason is no slouch. Gurley should be held to under 20-25 touches per game, to be more efficient. Again, I think his talent is immense, but he never in his entire career hit the 30 carry mark in a game. He is not a bell cow back to me. He has the ability to play on all 3 downs, but a large amount of touches is going to wear him down quickly, I don't believe he can endure a heavy workload.

Thank you for the respectful reply, sometimes we forget that around here.

I hope you were serious with the respectful reply comment - my post may have come off a bit harsh, but I did not intend for that. I always appreciate a great debate!

I'm actually with you - I don't think guys like Foles / Quick / Robinson are difference makers in the NFL at this point in their career's (although Quick did flash last year and Robinson is young). My whole point - which I did not communicate very well - is that things can't possibly be worse than they were last year for the Rams offense, and their RB's were still productive.

Foles isn't very good, but can we agree that he's equal to or better than Shaun Hill and Austin Davis?
Quick hasn't lived up to his potential, but can we agree that he's the Rams best WR?
Robinson had an up-and-down Rookie season, but can we agree that their OL is more likely to be better than worse?
Lastly, I think we can all agree that losing Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will make any defense noticeably worse, regardless of who their replacements are.

Even as a Gurley owner, I must admit that I'm not as sold on his talent as a lot of people are. But I don't really worry about his situation that much - considering the "upgrades" they've made in 2015 and the relative success of their running game in 2014 regardless of the crappy circumstances.

In addition, Fisher loves himself a workhorse RB, and Gurley will surely be a workhorse so long as he's healthy. Any RB that will see 300+ touches is a RB 1 in today's NFL - let alone a 20 year old back that was the #10 overall pick, and I don't really see the team's circumstances holding him back. I don't predict a top5 finish for Gurley in 2015, but I have no reason to believe (besides injury) that he can't be a very productive RB 2 or a solid RB 1 in that offense for the next few years.

[FantasyFreak]

I am including Foles in this. I think Chip Kelly made him look a lot better than he is. The SF getting a lot worse is an assumption. They have lost players, but we shall see. It's an assumption that Robinson develops. He was a poor OL last year. The "influx of talent" is also debatable. Rookies transitioning quickly on the OL is difficult, and none of their draft pedigree was even close to that of Robinson's. Brian Quick has had a few good games his entire career....that's it. So, I have done my homework, I just don't see these people you are mentioning as nearly as talented as you feel they are, I think that's where the difference of opinion lies. I am sold on Gurley's talent (and that mauler from Wisky was a great run blocker in college), but I simply don't believe in anyone else on that entire offence. They are a bunch of scrubs, if you ask me. Nobody is scared of Brian Quick. They are going to stack the box on Gurley, and make him beat them. He has never been a workhorse. His college carries show us that. I don't see him being like Eddie George, carrying 300 plus times a year. He had to take drives off in college games, because he got tired. I think he would be better off being used like Stewart was, with DeAngelo Williams. Mason is no slouch. Gurley should be held to under 20-25 touches per game, to be more efficient. Again, I think his talent is immense, but he never in his entire career hit the 30 carry mark in a game. He is not a bell cow back to me. He has the ability to play on all 3 downs, but a large amount of touches is going to wear him down quickly, I don't believe he can endure a heavy workload.

Thank you for the respectful reply, sometimes we forget that around here.

I hope you were serious with the respectful reply comment - my post may have come off a bit harsh, but I did not intend for that. I always appreciate a great debate!

I'm actually with you - I don't think guys like Foles / Quick / Robinson are difference makers in the NFL at this point in their career's (although Quick did flash last year and Robinson is young). My whole point - which I did not communicate very well - is that things can't possibly be worse than they were last year for the Rams offense, and their RB's were still productive.

Foles isn't very good, but can we agree that he's equal to or better than Shaun Hill and Austin Davis?
Quick hasn't lived up to his potential, but can we agree that he's the Rams best WR?
Robinson had an up-and-down Rookie season, but can we agree that their OL is more likely to be better than worse?
Lastly, I think we can all agree that losing Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will make any defense noticeably worse, regardless of who their replacements are.

Even as a Gurley owner, I must admit that I'm not as sold on his talent as a lot of people are. But I don't really worry about his situation that much - considering the "upgrades" they've made in 2015 and the relative success of their running game in 2014 regardless of the crappy circumstances.

In addition, Fisher loves himself a workhorse RB, and Gurley will surely be a workhorse so long as he's healthy. Any RB that will see 300+ touches is a RB 1 in today's NFL - let alone a 20 year old back that was the #10 overall pick, and I don't really see the team's circumstances holding him back. I don't predict a top5 finish for Gurley in 2015, but I have no reason to believe (besides injury) that he can't be a very productive RB 2 or a solid RB 1 in that offense for the next few years.

I was serious. It was meant in the most respectful manner. I see no reason other than injury either, but that concern looms large to me. He just does't seem to be durable. I can't justify my 1.01 on the guy with a guy like Cooper sitting there. If i had the 1.02.....for sure. I just don't believe in Gurley's durability, it has nothing to do with his talent. I am not sold on him being the "next AP"... however. He has more top end speed than a guy like Bell, but Bell's overall game at the NFL level (his cuts are disgusting, as well as his patience, vision, and power) is going to top Gurley's. I think the idea of him coming in and dominating is wishful thinking, but he can definitely be one of the better backs in the league. He is a one cut, power back with speed, but lacks that "make you miss" ability ON A CONSISTENT BASIS (so anyone wishing to post one clip of him making a guy miss can save it, I've watched his film a ridiculous amount of times, there is nothing you can show me I haven't already seen 20 times already) to be truly elite on the level of an AP. I don't blame anyone for taking him 1.01, I just can't bring myself to do it. Doesn't mean I'm right...

[Dougiefresh37]

To preface this I don't own Todd Gurley in any leagues. I'm not opposed to it, I just didn't have the opportunity to draft him.

Why is he valued so high? He is the 3rd ranked rb in the dlf rb rankings. Does this seem crazy to anyone else but me? He is coming off an Acl injury (with today's advances in science and medicine it's not as big a deal as it once was) but its still a serious injury. Plus he has never played a Down in the nfl.

I see the upside, and the hype is crazy but people are getting more for him than Eddie lacy and proven backs who have accomplished a lot in the nfl.

[Dookmarriot]

Even the DLF writers get rookie fever. Most of us do.

The SWOT articles, great as they were, were ALL positive. I'm sure all the writers came by their opinions honestly, but history tells us the majority of this draft class will not be big fantasy contributors.

[Dougiefresh37]

I realize people get rookie fever, I do too. But this seems beyond rookie fever

[evorzan]

It comes down to the landscape at RB in the league right now, ultimately. Most of the best RBs are 27+, meaning their longevity is out the door. At 20/21 years old, Gurley has plenty of years ahead of him. Many young RBs who are considered good are in questionable situations or RBBC's, or are unproven. Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, etc... they all have their big negative spot. Gurley is walking into St Louis as the unquestioned leader of a backfield for a team coached by Jeff Fisher, who likes to run his RB1 into the ground and then jump on him a few times at the end of his usefulness for good measure, just in case he can squeeze anything more out. People were asking the same questions about Hyde this time last year. There were discussions about whether he should be in consideration for a top 5 dynasty ranking at the position.

[Dougiefresh37]

I see your point...I feel like people are valuing Gurley over guys like lacy, bell, and hill. That might just be the talk in my leagues but I'd rather have any of those guys over gurley.

[Pac_Eddy]

I see your point...I feel like people are valuing Gurley over guys like lacy, bell, and hill. That might just be the talk in my leagues but I'd rather have any of those guys over gurley.

As mentioned earlier, it's all about the age of current studs and NFL teams not giving any one back a ton of carries anymore. I think most agree that Gurley is very talented and with the Rams will likely be a workhorse back. They're just very hard to find these days.

I personally would take the proven commodities in Lacy & Bell over him. Hill would be tougher but I can see why someone would prefer him over young Gurley.

[evorzan]

I see your point...I feel like people are valuing Gurley over guys like lacy, bell, and hill. That might just be the talk in my leagues but I'd rather have any of those guys over gurley.

As mentioned earlier, it's all about the age of current studs and NFL teams not giving any one back a ton of carries anymore. I think most agree that Gurley is very talented and with the Rams will likely be a workhorse back. They're just very hard to find these days.

I personally would take the proven commodities in Lacy & Bell over him. Hill would be tougher but I can see why someone would prefer him over young Gurley.

I agree with this, but I can see the asterisks for Lacy with his concussions, bruising style, and medical 'red flags' coming out of college. It comes down to personal preference, but I can't really argue against anyone ranking any of these guys in the top 5. All reasons are valid, and Gurley's already got an injury red flag and a lack of actual NFL production red flag.

[Never Veto1]

Hmm... seems to me not to long ago this type of stuff was being said about Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. Now I'm not saying each of them is as talented as the other, but a lot of people were swooning over Trent and Doug. Look how that turned out. We all want the next big thing before anyone else knows they are the next best thing. Is he worthy of the 1.01 / 1.02 sure why not, but I think people need to temper their expectations a little. He is not a top 5 RB... Yet. Let him play some games before anointing him.

[TheChicken]

You shouldn't really have an actual NFL production red flag before you have any opportunity for production. Christine Michael, he can have a NFL production red flag but you surely must be neutral/no flags in the case of rookies before the season has even started (Bell, Hill, Lacy get NFL production green flags so that is obviously a positive for them).

I get spending a 1.01 on Gurley, I get a rebuilding team not trading Gurley straight up for Lacy or Hill, I don't get competeting teams trading for Gurley and giving up a lot to do it. I'll be really interested to see where is gets selected in re-draft leagues.

[evorzan]

Green flags, I like that concept. Hadn't heard of it before - and it's much more accurate for this scenario. Thanks!