Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Zacsby » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:25 pm

Mariota was a huge problem. Then AJB became the problem. He's not as good as AJB and there's just not room for two WRs to produce in that offense. I still think he could be a WR2/3 in a better situation. But who knows if/when that happens. I wouldn't buy but I'm not selling for a random 3rd or whatever other insignificant offer you're likely to get either.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:25 am

I’d consider buying at the aforementioned random 3rd, but I don’t think anybody who owns him is selling for that. I think Davis is owned by a relatively high number of truthers who are willing to go down with the ship, so you’re not getting him for as cheap as his production suggests.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby sloth8u » Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:02 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:43 pm
sloth8u wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:21 pm
Im still a believer and buyer at the right price. Will go down with the ship if he never gets the targets. If the targets come, i think the production will be there.
To an extent. He had 112 targets a few years ago with moderate production. The reality is, he isn't deserving of a massive target volume, so the targets probably won't be there, because force feeding him targets isn't going to lead to team success.
I dont have the numbers, but pretty confident that if we look....we'll find a wr needs 130 or so targets (in general) for the production we're looking for.

For me, the talent looks to be there. The draft pedigree is there, now we wait for the opportunities. Qb and scheme were a question from day 1 with him.

Someone brought up parker earlier in the thread, could have brought up guys like ab and adams who took a few yrs to get going and became high end players. I get that its a dynasty site and everyone wants players to breakout right away, but thats not the case for everyone and especially wr for a ball control team.

Just my opinion, but tanny's "success" only hurts that organization in terms of finding their franchise qb.

Maybe you and others never liked him or gave up on him....no problem there. Fair to say that others may see that he hasnt had much of an opportunity either and the production will come if the opportunity does. Realistically in yr 2 he was 2-3 tds away from a top 20 finish if i remember correctly. Tds are unpredictable. I think that yr was 112 tgt, 850-900 yds, 3-5 td.....get him some targets and could easily be 1000 and 10 which most would be frothing at the mouth over a 2nd yr wr.

I dont blame anyone for moving on, get out while you can mentality. I personally would only sell if it made the team better, not another lottery ticket outside the top 10, which is exactly what you'd be offered.

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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Factory of Sadness » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:02 am

There's no rationale here for WHY a team should give him 130 targets. Davis cemented the Treadwell lesson for me that as skeptical as I am about much of the combine, I am not drafting a WR who doesn't run there again, at least not as high as those two. Davis is sluggish and we didn't see this because of MAC competition. He's fine as an NFL talent. He's fast enough-just- big enough, fluid enough etc. I haven't seen any outstanding traits though. Just comparing him to this year's intake, he doesn't have AJ Brown's strength or speed, he can't run with Deebo, who is stronger to boot, much less run with Metcalf or McLaurin. With all of the WRs coming in this year who can absolutely fly, I'm not sure why any team would decide that this is the guy that they want they to run their offense through?

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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:37 am

As a guy who doesn't own him anywhere, I have no interest in adding him unless I have very deep rosters.

Seems like the kind of guy you know has potential, puts up a good game every now & then, but you never started him. It would be depressing to see him taking up a roster space, even if I got him cheap.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby remedy29 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:22 am

Factory of Sadness wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:02 am
There's no rationale here for WHY a team should give him 130 targets. Davis cemented the Treadwell lesson for me that as skeptical as I am about much of the combine, I am not drafting a WR who doesn't run there again, at least not as high as those two. Davis is sluggish and we didn't see this because of MAC competition. He's fine as an NFL talent. He's fast enough-just- big enough, fluid enough etc. I haven't seen any outstanding traits though. Just comparing him to this year's intake, he doesn't have AJ Brown's strength or speed, he can't run with Deebo, who is stronger to boot, much less run with Metcalf or McLaurin. With all of the WRs coming in this year who can absolutely fly, I'm not sure why any team would decide that this is the guy that they want they to run their offense through?
Exactly. His problem is he can't seperate, so no team will ever go into a season with Corey Davis as the planned WR1 on a team. Tennessee knows this too, so they were quick to add another WR with good draft capital, even though they are a run team. Corey Davis, simply isn't good enough.

As a WR3, he may have some value, but don't expect more.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:31 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:37 am
As a guy who doesn't own him anywhere, I have no interest in adding him unless I have very deep rosters.

Seems like the kind of guy you know has potential, puts up a good game every now & then, but you never started him. It would be depressing to see him taking up a roster space, even if I got him cheap.
It's a little depressing if you drafted him in the 1st but I don't think you need "deep" rosters to hold him either. Team 1 for myself is only 14 keepers so he's likely not there at the start of the year, but I'm holding in my other league and there's only 250 players rostered there, which I'm pretty sure is on the lower side for dynasty. I guess I could drop for Dorsett or Pettis, but I don't think they have the talent or potential Davis does. Of course I'm not starting him, but I have a few guys I'd never start, that's why it's dynasty. Maybe if my roster was only 18 or 20 deep then yeah he'd be on the WW. He's easily rostered in most leagues I bet.

I also get not wanting to add him though. He's stuck in TEN for 1-2 more years (likely just 1, I assume his 5th year option won't get exercised because his cap hit is probably significant). So he's not worth acquiring if he's just sitting on your bench as you likely have better or similar options to him. Even if you have worse options than Davis, it's probably a marginal upgrade for your roster and at what cost? His owner may be still demanding of a 2nd round pick. I'd rather roll the dice with a 2nd myself.

He's just in a pretty bad spot for a middle of the pack WR. I still think he can be good but he's no WR1, or possibly not even 2nd option on a good passing team. I still would like to see him on a good passing team first though.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Hottoddies » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:49 am

Factory of Sadness wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:02 am
There's no rationale here for WHY a team should give him 130 targets. Davis cemented the Treadwell lesson for me that as skeptical as I am about much of the combine, I am not drafting a WR who doesn't run there again, at least not as high as those two. Davis is sluggish and we didn't see this because of MAC competition. He's fine as an NFL talent. He's fast enough-just- big enough, fluid enough etc. I haven't seen any outstanding traits though. Just comparing him to this year's intake, he doesn't have AJ Brown's strength or speed, he can't run with Deebo, who is stronger to boot, much less run with Metcalf or McLaurin. With all of the WRs coming in this year who can absolutely fly, I'm not sure why any team would decide that this is the guy that they want they to run their offense through?
It would be nice if defensive coordinators believed this so Davis wouldn't see as much double coverage or top CB attention.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:18 am

I still like Davis, but it's becoming harder to imagine him fulfilling his upside. I'm not sure what his issue is. A few seasons ago, he was abusing Stephon Gilmore in man coverage, now he just looks ordinary. Initially, I think situation held him back, but Brown went off this year and Davis didn't benefit from Tannehill playing over his head and defenses keying in on Derrick Henry.

There's some parallels here to Sammy Watkins, except Davis wasn't as productive as Sammy in his first two seasons.

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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby ArrylT » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:44 am

The Titans were last or 2nd to last in Passing Attempts per game.

Corey Davis still earned 15% target share. Thats about equal to Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, Darius Slayton, Marquise Brown and/or James Washington.

If you do not feel his volume or situation will ever improve, obviously you're welcome to move on. However, his target volume, which was comparable to Year I, still saw a strong improvement in production, despite a completely different situation. It seems quite feasible should his target volume return to a level similar to Golladay, John Brown, Gallup & or Lockett saw, his production will likely be similar to what they did.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby honcho55 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:20 am

What bewilders me is how this guy hasn’t put it together yet. Eye test, draft capital, and most importantly imo and been mentioned: he’s drawing really tough coverage. I don’t have the numbers but he’s seen very high percentage of top cb/doubles/rolled coverages, etc. Course, it goes without saying, at some point ya gotta produce anyways, but still. It’s at a minimum an indication that NFL HC/DCs think he deserves attention. I’ll take that over most if not all fantasy pundit takes.

Now, in 2020 is AJB gonna take some pressure off? Is a year with tanny gonna be a positive? I’d say there’s a chance at least.

I got the guy on two teams, one salary team for fairly cheap, so it won’t be huge either way if I keep or cut him. There’s zero trade interest though.

The actual dynasty team I have him on he’s buried as my WR6 or something so no reason to do anything. This guy, man.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:10 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:31 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:37 am
As a guy who doesn't own him anywhere, I have no interest in adding him unless I have very deep rosters.

Seems like the kind of guy you know has potential, puts up a good game every now & then, but you never started him. It would be depressing to see him taking up a roster space, even if I got him cheap.
It's a little depressing if you drafted him in the 1st but I don't think you need "deep" rosters to hold him either. Team 1 for myself is only 14 keepers so he's likely not there at the start of the year, but I'm holding in my other league and there's only 250 players rostered there, which I'm pretty sure is on the lower side for dynasty. I guess I could drop for Dorsett or Pettis, but I don't think they have the talent or potential Davis does. Of course I'm not starting him, but I have a few guys I'd never start, that's why it's dynasty. Maybe if my roster was only 18 or 20 deep then yeah he'd be on the WW. He's easily rostered in most leagues I bet.

I also get not wanting to add him though. He's stuck in TEN for 1-2 more years (likely just 1, I assume his 5th year option won't get exercised because his cap hit is probably significant). So he's not worth acquiring if he's just sitting on your bench as you likely have better or similar options to him. Even if you have worse options than Davis, it's probably a marginal upgrade for your roster and at what cost? His owner may be still demanding of a 2nd round pick. I'd rather roll the dice with a 2nd myself.

He's just in a pretty bad spot for a middle of the pack WR. I still think he can be good but he's no WR1, or possibly not even 2nd option on a good passing team. I still would like to see him on a good passing team first though.
I agree with all your points.

I was illustrating how a non Davis owner isn't likely to want to aquire him, even for a low price. If you own him, the only option is to wait it out, even though that can suck.
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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Krypto_King » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:26 pm

djeternal2 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:37 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:28 pm

I love how AJ Brown takes a few passes 60 yards after the catch and now Ryan Tannehill is a great quarterback :confused:
a better situation would be one where he gets thrown the ball and/or the team passes more than 25 times per game. which Davis isn't getting anytime soon so he's a hold or maybe dump for a future 2nd
AJB must have had a monster year then. Tanny had 286 att and threw for 2700 yards in 10 games started with 22 TD & 6 INT. He averaged over your arbitrary line of 25 att per game. You know what CD did over those games: 42 targets 27 catches 364 yards 1 TD.
umm Yes, AJB had an awesome year. Tanny started 13 games this year and threw 330 passes in those games for 25.38 attempts per game. He also has a very long track record. He is Andy Dalton with some mobility. In an offense that throws 25 times per game. That's a pretty bleep situation to be in for a WR.


Here is some recent film on Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84qoFNseqTI
I don't think separation or ability is the main issue but I can also see maybe he isn't quite quick, fast or strong enough to hit the ceiling many predicted for him.

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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:01 pm

Tannehill was QB3 from weeks 7-16...

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Re: Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

Postby Walter W. » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:11 pm

Our dynasty league just completed its 10th season. Here are the WRs I've drafted in the 1st round:

2012 - Stephen Hill (1.09)
2013 - Justin Hunter (1.10)
2014 - Sammy Watkins (1.01) and Jordan Matthews (1.11)
2015 - Amari Cooper (1.04)
2016 - Sterling Shepard (1.07)
2017 - Corey Davis (1.03)

I suck at drafting WRs :( . Good thing I've hit on most of the RBs I've drafted.

I will just hold Davis and hope for the best for now.
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