Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Kmani6 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:02 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:48 pm
kmbryant09 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm
Got around to some more tape sessions, wanted to post my thoughts on one of my favorite players in this year's draft class:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - What a baller. He's everything you could want in a RB and fits the modern NFL so perfectly. I think he's the best pass-catching RB in this class, and it isn't even close. He runs legitimate routes out of the backfield, and is an absolute nightmare against LBs, particularly on diamond or option routes. Some might think he's "undersized", but he's built with a thick lower body and his BMI is more than high enough. He actually uses his diminutive stature to his advantage, displaying a ridiculously low center of gravity that allows him to maintain balance through contact. He has enough leg drive & strength to push defenders forward, yet enough lateral agility to make them miss in space. He has a full arsenal of moves, including a nasty spin move and a great jump cut in between the tackles. He moves with suddenness with very little wasted movement. I think his one *weakness* is his long speed. While he has great quickness and acceleration, I think his top-end speed is pretty capped and will be noticeable at the NFL level. He's plenty athletic, I just don't expect him to break away from secondaries and destroy pursuit angles against NFL speed.

Player Comparison: Christian McCaffrey. That's right, I said it. This is more about CMC the prospect coming out of college, as I recognize that he's continued to get bigger, faster, stronger, and better at the next level. I'm not projecting CEH to immediately be a top3 fantasy RB, but I think their games are very similar as surprisingly above-average runners and elite level pass-catchers. Only difference might be CEH's lack of long speed compared to CMC.
I came away from watching his film with the same impression. I now have him in my top 4 RB prospects ahead of Taylor and behind only Swift & Dobbins. He may not have the same top end speed of the other 3 RBs but I don't see that as a major handicap to his success at the next level. Top end speed rarely comes into play for RBs. It's more about short area burst.
Taylor is by far the superior prospect. I love CEH, but I disagree with the ranking. It's fine to have him there, it's your rankings, but "film watching" is literally the only reason one can have him there, and even then, I don't know what you are seeing.
💯. Taylor is a superior athlete as well. Will test great at the combine, and has a more prototypical NFL RB build.
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QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, OBJ , Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, Auden Tate, C. Samuel, D. Pettis, Zach Pascal, D. Johnson, A. Miller
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:27 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:48 pm
kmbryant09 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm
Got around to some more tape sessions, wanted to post my thoughts on one of my favorite players in this year's draft class:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - What a baller. He's everything you could want in a RB and fits the modern NFL so perfectly. I think he's the best pass-catching RB in this class, and it isn't even close. He runs legitimate routes out of the backfield, and is an absolute nightmare against LBs, particularly on diamond or option routes. Some might think he's "undersized", but he's built with a thick lower body and his BMI is more than high enough. He actually uses his diminutive stature to his advantage, displaying a ridiculously low center of gravity that allows him to maintain balance through contact. He has enough leg drive & strength to push defenders forward, yet enough lateral agility to make them miss in space. He has a full arsenal of moves, including a nasty spin move and a great jump cut in between the tackles. He moves with suddenness with very little wasted movement. I think his one *weakness* is his long speed. While he has great quickness and acceleration, I think his top-end speed is pretty capped and will be noticeable at the NFL level. He's plenty athletic, I just don't expect him to break away from secondaries and destroy pursuit angles against NFL speed.

Player Comparison: Christian McCaffrey. That's right, I said it. This is more about CMC the prospect coming out of college, as I recognize that he's continued to get bigger, faster, stronger, and better at the next level. I'm not projecting CEH to immediately be a top3 fantasy RB, but I think their games are very similar as surprisingly above-average runners and elite level pass-catchers. Only difference might be CEH's lack of long speed compared to CMC.
I came away from watching his film with the same impression. I now have him in my top 4 RB prospects ahead of Taylor and behind only Swift & Dobbins. He may not have the same top end speed of the other 3 RBs but I don't see that as a major handicap to his success at the next level. Top end speed rarely comes into play for RBs. It's more about short area burst.
Taylor is by far the superior prospect. I love CEH, but I disagree with the ranking. It's fine to have him there, it's your rankings, but "film watching" is literally the only reason one can have him there, and even then, I don't know what you are seeing.
These are my preliminary impressions of the prospects to this point. I try to watch as much film as I can before the combine to reduce as much bias as I can. Although I do admit that I view highly ranked players with more skepticism then others. I do revisit the film after the combine and the NFL draft. And I certainly will take draft position, landing spot, and athleticism into consideration.

Jonathan Taylor certainly was a highly productive player running behind a dominate offensive line. He's a very big strong straight line bruiser that can be a load to bring down. And I'm sure he possesses great long speed thou his speed only comes into play if he breaks through the second level. The only reason I have him currently ranked behind 3 very special RBs is that he isn't quite as natural of a receiver as the others and he's not very elusive. In the dozen or so games I watched I saw only 2 or 3 spin moves with minimal effect and 1 stiff arm. The most he ever does to avoid tacklers is a slow speed side step. I still think Taylor is a great prospect, just not as special as Swift, Dobbins, and Edwards-Helaire.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:35 am

I have a feeling there's a growing consensus for the top RB. I was flip flopping for a while between Dobbins and JT, but I think I've firmly landed on Taylor as my top back
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
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2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

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RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:13 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:27 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:48 pm

I came away from watching his film with the same impression. I now have him in my top 4 RB prospects ahead of Taylor and behind only Swift & Dobbins. He may not have the same top end speed of the other 3 RBs but I don't see that as a major handicap to his success at the next level. Top end speed rarely comes into play for RBs. It's more about short area burst.
Taylor is by far the superior prospect. I love CEH, but I disagree with the ranking. It's fine to have him there, it's your rankings, but "film watching" is literally the only reason one can have him there, and even then, I don't know what you are seeing.
These are my preliminary impressions of the prospects to this point. I try to watch as much film as I can before the combine to reduce as much bias as I can. Although I do admit that I view highly ranked players with more skepticism then others. I do revisit the film after the combine and the NFL draft. And I certainly will take draft position, landing spot, and athleticism into consideration.

Jonathan Taylor certainly was a highly productive player running behind a dominate offensive line. He's a very big strong straight line bruiser that can be a load to bring down. And I'm sure he possesses great long speed thou his speed only comes into play if he breaks through the second level. The only reason I have him currently ranked behind 3 very special RBs is that he isn't quite as natural of a receiver as the others and he's not very elusive. In the dozen or so games I watched I saw only 2 or 3 spin moves with minimal effect and 1 stiff arm. The most he ever does to avoid tacklers is a slow speed side step. I still think Taylor is a great prospect, just not as special as Swift, Dobbins, and Edwards-Helaire.
I've not dived into the film yet, so maybe I'll agree more with you when I do, but I doubt it. Taylor looks great to me.

I wonder if you might be overthinking it. Taylor looks like a damn good RB who will translate to the NFL. Sometimes in film study you start to look at specific traits that you hate/love so much that they cause you to raise or lower a prospect more than you should. I did it with RoJo in the opposite direction a couple years ago.

We want to be good scouts, so we try to look at everything, when really we should try to make it more simple than that.
Can they perform at the next level?
Can they handle a workload?
If given that workload, will they be able to produce 4+ ypc?
How will they fit into the passing game?
Will they fit naturally into an NFL team where they produce by default, or will whatever team drafts them have to come up with schemes to manufacture enough touches?

For me, Taylor is going to be drafted as a workhorse and will be given plenty of opportunities to be that workhorse. Because of his ability, I think he will perform well enough to keep his job without really much competition.
Last edited by dynastyninja on Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby jenkins.math » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:22 am

I feel like what's happening here with Taylor happens every year to a prospect who has been in the spotlight for years. We start overanalyzing and dropping them lower and lower in the rankings and start hyping up whoever the new hotness is.

This isn't meant to say discussion isn't warranted but Taylor went from "it's either him or Swift as the 1.01" to "Taylor might be the 5th best RB". I think the pendulum is swinging too far with Taylor.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Orenthal Shames » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:53 am

I think we need at least one more thread for 2020 rookies.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby kmbryant09 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:18 am

As for CEH vs. Taylor, which is not a discussion I started, here's my take. it's definitely over-simplifying things, but hope this illustrates their differences:

Taylor as a runner = 10/10
Taylor as a receiver = 5/10

CEH as a runner = 6/10
CEH as a receiver = 10/10

CEH has some size concerns and questions marks regarding his athletic ability (which will get answered, one way or another at the combine).
Taylor has some fumbling problems and not much else.

Projecting these guys into the NFL, it's pretty easy to see both of them being successful. I do think Taylor's lack of receiving ability could hold him back for fantasy purposes in the NFL, as a team could be tempted to pair him with a true 3rd down back like Duke Johnson, James White, Gio Bernard, etc. But I think CEH, in the right system with the right coaching staff, will recognize that he's a true difference maker as a 3-down back.

Ultimately, I think we're splitting hairs. I personally have Dobbins, CEH, and Taylor all neck & neck in the top tier. Landing spot & combine performance will likely be a tie-breaker within this tier. Then I have Swift & Akers in the 2nd tier as of right now - with Swift having the most to gain pending his combine testing and his draft capital.
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RB: M. Mack, P. Lindsay, D. Johnson, C. Edmonds, T. Pollard, B. Scott, G. Bernard, D. Thompson
WR: C. Godwin, O. Beckham Jr., K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Kirk, Di. Johnson, Z. Pascal, J. Kumerow
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Kmani6 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:18 am

One thing that’s interesting is there are so few spots for RBs. Outside of the Chiefs, Texans, Bucs, and Miami I can’t think of some immediate impact spots without committees. Then you gotta factor that Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, and potentially Derrick Henry if they draft a guy will all be moving most likely as well to fill some holes too.
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QB: Dak Prescott
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WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, OBJ , Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, Auden Tate, C. Samuel, D. Pettis, Zach Pascal, D. Johnson, A. Miller
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby JJRules » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:36 am

I like CEH a lot, and view him as a rich man's Devin Singletary.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:47 am

Taylor has decent hands. He made some difficult catches this year, and his receiving stats were pretty good, in the context of that offense. He has less questions about his hands than Melvin Gordon did coming out, and look what he ended doing as a receiver in the NFL.
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:16 am

Kmani6 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:18 am
One thing that’s interesting is there are so few spots for RBs. Outside of the Chiefs, Texans, Bucs, and Miami I can’t think of some immediate impact spots without committees. Then you gotta factor that Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, and potentially Derrick Henry if they draft a guy will all be moving most likely as well to fill some holes too.
Well if you think Henry goes elsewhere then TEN becomes a good landing spot. Can't say the same with Chubb and Ekeler still with their teams in regards to Hunt or Gordon leaving though.

I also think Washington, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Arizona, and SF could all use another RB or an upgrade of sorts. Sure they aren't as good of landing spots as the rest, but it's not like those 4 you listed are the only ones.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, DJM, Hollywood, Cooks, C. Davis, Preston, Parris, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson, Gaskin
WR: DJM, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, Diontae, C. Davis, Lazard, Parris, MVS, AB
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Jonnu, Thomas
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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby mgscott » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:28 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:16 am
Kmani6 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:18 am
One thing that’s interesting is there are so few spots for RBs. Outside of the Chiefs, Texans, Bucs, and Miami I can’t think of some immediate impact spots without committees. Then you gotta factor that Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, and potentially Derrick Henry if they draft a guy will all be moving most likely as well to fill some holes too.
Well if you think Henry goes elsewhere then TEN becomes a good landing spot. Can't say the same with Chubb and Ekeler still with their teams in regards to Hunt or Gordon leaving though.

I also think Washington, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Arizona, and SF could all use another RB or an upgrade of sorts. Sure they aren't as good of landing spots as the rest, but it's not like those 4 you listed are the only ones.

With Atlanta potentially moving on from Freeman, they could be a very good landing spot.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby blemly » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:48 pm

Haven’t seen a lot of Cam Akers discussion as of late, is he consistently sliding to the RB5 at this (admittedly very early) stage? Putting up the numbers he did behind an atrocious line makes me consider him a screaming value if he drops to the late 1st/early 2nd in rookie drafts.
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QB: Cousins, Rodgers, Rosen, Grier
RB: Henry, Sanders, Guice, Penny, Armstead
WR: KA, AB, OBJ, Golladay, Pettis, Washington, Slayton, Z. Jones
TE: OJH, Herndon, Gesicki
2020: 3, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:58 pm

blemly wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:48 pm
Haven’t seen a lot of Cam Akers discussion as of late, is he consistently sliding to the RB5 at this (admittedly very early) stage? Putting up the numbers he did behind an atrocious line makes me consider him a screaming value if he drops to the late 1st/early 2nd in rookie drafts.
I think he is the RB4 as if this moment, and is the 1.06 or 1.07 in 1QB (between him and WR Tee Higgins), an Edwards-Helaire is his primary RB competition. A long way to go anf things could change though.

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Re: Some thoughts on the 2020 Rookie Class

Postby Factory of Sadness » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:15 am

I am desperately hoping we get some of the Tier 3 backs in wonderful landing spots. Imagine how much fun this year would be if the Chiefs took Moss in the 3rd/4th and Vaughn went to the Texans in the 3rd/4th. Were this to happen and the current top 5 end up in Miami, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Detroit or on the Jets, this place would explode.


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