Will Ryan Tannehill be a Starting NFL QB in 2020?

[Jigga94]

That's a fair assessment. I'll throw in Corey Davis as a very competent WR2... I wonder how long Henry can last. People worry about the touches, age, etc. But the dude is huge. He may lose some breakaway speed but I could see him being fantasy relevant for a while

CD is gone next year bud - they've already declined the option.

Agree on Henry - he just needs to keep being a battering ram for a couple more years. It's not even the breakaway speed (though it's so awesome to see when he's in full flight) - it's that he sustains drives for them way over expectation.

Oh, here I was thinking they'd picked it up. Might be better off for him and doesn't change much for TEN long term probably

[Orenthal Shames]

Ryan Tannehill ranks No. 1 in the #NFL in...
- 4th quarter comebacks (4)
- Game-winning drives (5)
- % of drives ending in an offensive TO (4.4)

He's top 5 in...
- Passing TDs - 26 (5th)
- TD% (4th)
- INT% (5th)
- Adjusted YPA (4th)
- Yds gained per pass completion (3rd)

[jenkins.math]

He has been great. I thought paying him 30 million a year for the next 3 years was a mistake but I was wrong there. I will be interested to see if they let Davis walk, who they bring in as his replacement opposite AJB.

Arthur Smith the OC has done a tremendous job with that entire offense and should be getting some head coaching looks in the very near future with the work he has done with Tannehill. As an aside, Arthur Smith's dad is the founder of FedEx so I would imagine he has some business skills that would come in very handy when trying to run a team and manage all of the moving parts.

[Orenthal Shames]

He has been great. I thought paying him 30 million a year for the next 3 years was a mistake but I was wrong there. I will be interested to see if they let Davis walk, who they bring in as his replacement opposite AJB.

Arthur Smith the OC has done a tremendous job with that entire offense and should be getting some head coaching looks in the very near future with the work he has done with Tannehill. As an aside, Arthur Smith's dad is the founder of FedEx so I would imagine he has some business skills that would come in very handy when trying to run a team and manage all of the moving parts.

Agree . Smith and Bienemy will be highly sought after this off-season.

[jenkins.math]

He has been great. I thought paying him 30 million a year for the next 3 years was a mistake but I was wrong there. I will be interested to see if they let Davis walk, who they bring in as his replacement opposite AJB.

Arthur Smith the OC has done a tremendous job with that entire offense and should be getting some head coaching looks in the very near future with the work he has done with Tannehill. As an aside, Arthur Smith's dad is the founder of FedEx so I would imagine he has some business skills that would come in very handy when trying to run a team and manage all of the moving parts.

Agree . Smith and Bienemy will be highly sought after this off-season.

If I ran the Jets and Jags those 2 would be my first 2 calls to interview and develop my new QB.

If Smith went to the Jets, and brought Corey Davis with him, that could really help speed up the learning curve for Lawrence and give him a WR that knows the offense well while the rest of the guys continue to learn it. That could really be a sneaky good move.

[jcc6fd]

Tennessee relies on time of possession and running over people with Henry. Passes are incredibly efficient but you have to think that their rushing success provides exploitable passing coverages. Any time a team takes a 2 score lead against Tannehill he’s totally exposed as being incapable of driving a passing offense. This is why people, despite his statistical success, are wary of granting him praise. The one possible exception would be this most recent game against Cleveland but really most of those scores were with the game out of hand.

He’s a good game manager who is capable of hitting deep passes, but I imagine he’d look league average without Henry.

[Shcritters]

Tennessee relies on time of possession and running over people with Henry. Passes are incredibly efficient but you have to think that their rushing success provides exploitable passing coverages. Any time a team takes a 2 score lead against Tannehill he’s totally exposed as being incapable of driving a passing offense. This is why people, despite his statistical success, are wary of granting him praise. The one possible exception would be this most recent game against Cleveland but really most of those scores were with the game out of hand.

He’s a good game manager who is capable of hitting deep passes, but I imagine he’d look league average without Henry.

I agree with you. AND... he has Henry for the foreseeable future.

In my main league the guy in the #1 spot just traded for Tannehill for a title push. He may not be the most talented QB who can carry a team himself, but he's in a situation that plays to his strengths and will be for the foreseeable future (a lot like Cousins in MN). That makes him a back-end top-10 QB for fantasy purposes for at least the next 1-2 years.

[Orenthal Shames]

Tannehill is on pace for 4,000 yards, 34 TD’s and 5 picks

If that’s a game manager, then nearly every team in the league should want one.

[Orenthal Shames]

Per Mike Clay:

Including the playoffs, Ryan Tannehill has 60 total TDs and 11 INTs in 27 games with the Titans.

[jenkins.math]

Tennessee relies on time of possession and running over people with Henry. Passes are incredibly efficient but you have to think that their rushing success provides exploitable passing coverages. Any time a team takes a 2 score lead against Tannehill he’s totally exposed as being incapable of driving a passing offense. This is why people, despite his statistical success, are wary of granting him praise. The one possible exception would be this most recent game against Cleveland but really most of those scores were with the game out of hand.

He’s a good game manager who is capable of hitting deep passes, but I imagine he’d look league average without Henry.

Doesn't this apply to about all the QBs minus Mahomes, Russ, and Rodgers? Even those 3 all have at least 1 elite weapon to throw to. Do you really think that as great as Mahomes is that he would be throwing for 5k yards and 50 TDs if he was on the Jets with their weapons?

Football isn't like basketball where you can roster Lebron and then start 4 bums off the street and be a legit title contender.

[jcc6fd]

^ I don’t disagree. Mahomes is the MVP in the NFL in large part because he was drafted into a terrific offensive system with talented WRs. He is incredible, but who knows what his career trajectory would have been if the Bears drafted him.

I wasn’t making a fantasy value argument when pointing out Tannehill relies on Henry, as they’re tied together, but simply pointing out why he doesn’t get praise equivalent to his statistical success. It should also be pointed out that his success is tied to a RB’s performance which he doesn’t enhance. QB’s with elite WRs still have to throw to them. We could have the same discussion regarding Cousins, who has benefitted massively since the Vikings decided to run the offense completely through Cook. I don’t see many people harolding Cousins last 6 weeks, and it’s because everyone knows Cook is doing the heavy lifting.

Last point I’ll make here is consider his performance against IND in week 10. Being down multiple scores early would usually dictate downfield passing but Tannehill was still only 15/27 for 147 yards. Bad QBs can rack up a ton of stats playing catch-up but Tannehill didn’t because the defenses dropped back and all of a sudden his usually open wide receivers due to the threat of Henry were all covered. He turned into his true game manager form when his team needed the pass and that’s what he’s shown to be time and again when Tennessee loses the game script. This is why Tennessee will lose games to good offenses and why Tannehill won’t be a SB winning QB unless he gets a Super Bowl 50 Denver Broncos defense.

[DLF3000]

Man I hate the Titans. Fantasy wise they've brought me nothing but pain - both when I owned some in dynasty and when I didn't. Tannehill and Davis in particular can go to fantasy hell.

That said, I'm totally vexed starting Tannehill in my one redraft league. Some things are inexplicable, like the Titans being relevant on multiple levels.

[jenkins.math]

^ I don’t disagree. Mahomes is the MVP in the NFL in large part because he was drafted into a terrific offensive system with talented WRs. He is incredible, but who knows what his career trajectory would have been if the Bears drafted him.

I wasn’t making a fantasy value argument when pointing out Tannehill relies on Henry, as they’re tied together, but simply pointing out why he doesn’t get praise equivalent to his statistical success. It should also be pointed out that his success is tied to a RB’s performance which he doesn’t enhance. QB’s with elite WRs still have to throw to them. We could have the same discussion regarding Cousins, who has benefitted massively since the Vikings decided to run the offense completely through Cook. I don’t see many people harolding Cousins last 6 weeks, and it’s because everyone knows Cook is doing the heavy lifting.

Last point I’ll make here is consider his performance against IND in week 10. Being down multiple scores early would usually dictate downfield passing but Tannehill was still only 15/27 for 147 yards. Bad QBs can rack up a ton of stats playing catch-up but Tannehill didn’t because the defenses dropped back and all of a sudden his usually open wide receivers due to the threat of Henry were all covered. He turned into his true game manager form when his team needed the pass and that’s what he’s shown to be time and again when Tennessee loses the game script. This is why Tennessee will lose games to good offenses and why Tannehill won’t be a SB winning QB unless he gets a Super Bowl 50 Denver Broncos defense.

This is a long winded way of saying that making an offense one dimensional and/or taking away their primary weapon is bad for the offense. That applies to every offense in the NFL, not just the Titans. Look at Russell Wilson's numbers with and without Chris Carson this year. 3 of his 4 worst games are without Carson. Do you know when Aaron Rodgers' one dud of a game happened? You guessed it, one of the games Adams was out. The Steelers just lost because they had zero run game and then the safeties crept up to take away what Pitt does best in the rub routes and short game.

I'm not arguing that Tannehill should be considered some elite QB by any means, but he is a whole lot more in that offense than just a "game manager".