Drew lock

[Sriracha]

He went for Mike Evans before the draft in a 6PT TD superflex.

I imagine his price has gone up after the draft.

A lot of people are sleeping on Lock.. but the more you know about him the more you realize he's been a buy since last season.

What do you think he's worth in terms of draft capital?

Not sure which draft capital you're referring to: Dynasty startup? Compared to the rookie draft? NFL draft capital?

I'd take him in the 5th round of a Dynasty startup (Superflex), Take him after Tua in Superflex (So for me, that'd be the 1.08 -- adjust for how much you like QBs in superflex setting)

[Packerland]

That's what I figured. I honestly like the dude more than Herbert and he's got some good weapons around him now.

[Sriracha]

That's what I figured. I honestly like the dude more than Herbert and he's got some good weapons around him now.

I have him and Tua in the same tier, with a slight edge towards Tua. Kind of like where I have Cee Dee Lamb and Jalen Reagor. Both of them have incredibly high ceilings, but Lamb is a bit safer. It's not that I like him more than Herbert; I like him a lot more than Herbert.

His combination of off-platform throws, and feel for the rush is Mahomes-esque. Remains to be seen if he'll hammer out the finer nuances to his game, but the upside is there and he's already displayed a league Average floor.

[never_punts]

I just sold him in sf. Got an offer I just couldn't turn down.

Lock for Carr, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd

[Packerland]

That's what I figured. I honestly like the dude more than Herbert and he's got some good weapons around him now.

I have him and Tua in the same tier, with a slight edge towards Tua. Kind of like where I have Cee Dee Lamb and Jalen Reagor. Both of them have incredibly high ceilings, but Lamb is a bit safer. It's not that I like him more than Herbert; I like him a lot more than Herbert.

His combination of off-platform throws, and feel for the rush is Mahomes-esque. Remains to be seen if he'll hammer out the finer nuances to his game, but the upside is there and he's already displayed a league Average floor.

I think the biggest issues with Lock were always decision making and accuracy. If he can clean those up I do think the sky is the limit. He's got phenomenal arm talent and good measurables.

[Pac_Eddy]

I'm cautiously optimistic on Lock. Elway is putting together a nice offense. They need to improve on the o-line quite a bit but the skill positions after solid after this off-season.

In a 12 team 1 QB league, he's still not worth much though. He's a hold.

[Sriracha]

I think the biggest issues with Lock were always decision making and accuracy. If he can clean those up I do think the sky is the limit. He's got phenomenal arm talent and good measurables.

Indeed, and he answered the bell on those two questions pretty well in year 1. His decision making was surprisingly good (Much better than Darnold, Allen, Haskins to name a few). He completely changed his mechanics as well, making himself more consistent (his accuracy issues in college derived more from mechanical breakdowns than not showing elite ball placement downfield).

I believe many people are underrating how well Lock played last season due to his low passing volume; which was more the result of conservative game-planning during his first few starts and negative gamescript (eg; they were winning games at half by multiple scores and went conservative) later on in the year.

In his starts DEN:
- went 4-1 (admittedly, he was terrible vs KC)
- dramatically reduced sack totals; Lock was sacked 5 times in 5 games; compared to Flacco: 26 sacks in 8 games; Brandon Allen: 9 sacks in 3 games
- drastically increased 3rd down success rate
- went from 15.9 ppg pre Lock to 21.4ppg

Small sample size, and Lock will have to continue to improve as defenses get more tape on him and try to exploit his weaknesses so he has by no means arrived yet.. but it's a lot more promising of a debut than a lot of people would assume based on his raw stats.

[Packerland]

I think the biggest issues with Lock were always decision making and accuracy. If he can clean those up I do think the sky is the limit. He's got phenomenal arm talent and good measurables.

Indeed, and he answered the bell on those two questions pretty well in year 1. His decision making was surprisingly good (Much better than Darnold, Allen, Haskins to name a few). He completely changed his mechanics as well, making himself more consistent (his accuracy issues in college derived more from mechanical breakdowns than not showing elite ball placement downfield).

I believe many people are underrating how well Lock played last season due to his low passing volume; which was more the result of conservative game-planning during his first few starts and negative gamescript (eg; they were winning games at half by multiple scores and went conservative) later on in the year.

In his starts DEN:
- went 4-1 (admittedly, he was terrible vs KC)
- dramatically reduced sack totals; Lock was sacked 5 times in 5 games; compared to Flacco: 26 sacks in 8 games; Brandon Allen: 9 sacks in 3 games
- drastically increased 3rd down success rate
- went from 15.9 ppg pre Lock to 21.4ppg

Small sample size, and Lock will have to continue to improve as defenses get more tape on him and try to exploit his weaknesses so he has by no means arrived yet.. but it's a lot more promising of a debut than a lot of people would assume based on his raw stats.

Love the analysis and stats to back it up, great work! I am also a big Lock believer and have turned down multiple offers for him. After the Hamler pick I received 2 trade offers within 15 minutes of that pick. I am really excited about the weapons they put around him and the AFC West should be a lot of fun with teams tooling up to stay with KC.

[Shankopotamus]

I sold him and 2.11 for DK a few weeks ago. I knew Denver would add weapons, but didn't expect Jeudy to fall into their laps. I may regret the trade this year, but I'm really high on DK.

[Flgatorguy87]

I sold him and 2.11 for DK a few weeks ago. I knew Denver would add weapons, but didn't expect Jeudy to fall into their laps. I may regret the trade this year, but I'm really high on DK.

That's still a really nice haul. Can't fault you on that at all.

[Flgatorguy87]

Lock seems to be a polarizing player at this point in his career. He's gotten some interest from guys in my SF league. If you weren't a believer, what sort of return would you expect in terms of another QB that has a more proven track record. I'm still floundering after Lucks retirement and Goff/Lock as my options behind Rodgers aren't giving me confidence as a contender. It feels like this could be a sell high window because the word potential is drenched on that Broncos offense.

[mild]

It's not exactly the same situation, but it's definitely uncanny how close it is... sharp owners will always want to take chances on high-variance plays - and especially at QB in SF. Think about Mahomes in the off-season before he made his first start and blew the doors off the pre-season. We had a breadcrumb trail:

- He had a loaded skill corps
- He had somewhat flashed skills to sharp observers in one spot start the year before, despite an unimpressive statline (and against these Broncos no less!)
- Andy Reid traded a proven vet in Alex Smith away, to clear the decks for Pat
- He was largely a mystery box with a big arm that we "hoped" would transition to the pros

... and you know what happened next.

The point being - the QB of your future might very well be on your roster right now - and if other owners are coming at you saying "I'm not convinced but can I please buy him for a ham sandwich" then you should be calmly reminding them of all of the above (even if you yourself don't actually believe it). He's a young QB with a loaded skill corp and a big arm. Even if he stinks this year, his value won't be going down - just pick your favourite excuse - and this time next year, the drum beat will begin again anew.

Hard not to overstate just how much of an impact Jerry Jeudy is going to have either. My #1 WR in this draft, and undoubtably a QB's best friend. Not to mention Melvin Gordon's impact as an above-average receiving back...

[FantasyFreak]

It's not exactly the same situation, but it's definitely uncanny how close it is... sharp owners will always want to take chances on high-variance plays - and especially at QB in SF. Think about Mahomes in the off-season before he made his first start and blew the doors off the pre-season. We had a breadcrumb trail:

- He had a loaded skill corps
- He had somewhat flashed skills to sharp observers in one spot start the year before, despite an unimpressive statline (and against these Broncos no less!)
- Andy Reid traded a proven vet in Alex Smith away, to clear the decks for Pat
- He was largely a mystery box with a big arm that we "hoped" would transition to the pros

... and you know what happened next.

The point being - the QB of your future might very well be on your roster right now - and if other owners are coming at you saying "I'm not convinced but can I please buy him for a ham sandwich" then you should be calmly reminding them of all of the above (even if you yourself don't actually believe it). He's a young QB with a loaded skill corp and a big arm. Even if he stinks this year, his value won't be going down - just pick your favourite excuse - and this time next year, the drum beat will begin again anew.

Hard not to overstate just how much of an impact Jerry Jeudy is going to have either. My #1 WR in this draft, and undoubtably a QB's best friend. Not to mention Melvin Gordon's impact as an above-average receiving back...

Yes it will. If he stinks this year there's a good chance he's a back up next year, and Elway is gone, and then a new GM comes in and gets his guy at QB.

[Shankopotamus]

I'd imagine his value is all over the place. I sold him a bit too early, because I could've gotten way more right now than I did pre-draft. He's got second to none weapons right now on paper. I'd hold him to see what you have unless you get a stupid good offer.

[Vcize]

I have him in several SF leagues and I get like 3-4 offers a week for him but no one is willing to pay a fair price. I think the best offer was 1.11 for him. Bleh. I think he's worth more than that easily.