Dak turns down 30M per year, wants 40M?? If true, time to let him walk

[xlur8ed]

There are some super strong opinions on Dak in this forum. Most often it's negative. Am I missing something from a fantasy perspective that makes this guy so bad? Don't get me wrong, from an NFL perspective, he is about as inconsistent as it gets, but from a fantasy perspective I'm confused.

2016, 6pt passing TD, he finished as the #6 QB
2017, Weeks 1-9 with Zeke he was again #6 QB (2 points off Brady, 34 points off #1 with #1 not yet having their bye).

Cash games on DK, he was chalky for most of the first half of the year. Now it seems recency bias makes him look like he isn't a valuable fantasy asset, being he fell on his face with Zeke out.

I do own him in one league (signature), receiving him in a big trade that included sending Wilson packing, and felt pretty good that even though they aren't comparable NFL assets, for fantasy, the drop off isn't enormous.

Am I really missing something?

[thebeast]

I used to see a lot of posts like this about Dalton. Dak just doesn't have it, he is a game manager who is afraid to challenge the field vertically.

[Raymond1974]

There are some super strong opinions on Dak in this forum. Most often it's negative. Am I missing something from a fantasy perspective that makes this guy so bad? Don't get me wrong, from an NFL perspective, he is about as inconsistent as it gets, but from a fantasy perspective I'm confused.

2016, 6pt passing TD, he finished as the #6 QB
2017, Weeks 1-9 with Zeke he was again #6 QB (2 points off Brady, 34 points off #1 with #1 not yet having their bye).

Cash games on DK, he was chalky for most of the first half of the year. Now it seems recency bias makes him look like he isn't a valuable fantasy asset, being he fell on his face with Zeke out.

I do own him in one league (signature), receiving him in a big trade that included sending Wilson packing, and felt pretty good that even though they aren't comparable NFL assets, for fantasy, the drop off isn't enormous.

Am I really missing something?

I don't understand the negativity either. In a supposed "down year" Dak still finished just outside the top 10 in MFL,despite not having Zeke for a few games and IMO average widerecivers to throw to. Keep in mind Dak is just 24 years old and approaching his third year in the league. With better weapons and confidence I think he'll be fine.

[xlur8ed]

2017:
62.9% Completion rating, 3,324 yds, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 86.6 Passer Rating | 357 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

2016:
67.8% Completion rating, 3,667 yds, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.9 Passer Rating | 282 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

That is a large enough sample size to say he doesn't have it, and simply state he is Andy Dalton?!?

[Raymond1974]

2017:
62.9% Completion rating, 3,324 yds, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 86.6 Passer Rating | 357 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

2016:
67.8% Completion rating, 3,667 yds, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.9 Passer Rating | 282 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

That is a large enough sample size to say he doesn't have it, and simply state he is Andy Dalton?!?

saying he doesn't "have it" after two just seasons in the league seems a bit extreme.

[xlur8ed]

saying he doesn't "have it" after two just seasons in the league seems a bit extreme.

Completely agree... the distaste is just so strong and seems fairly common, so was curious to see some factual fantasy based statistics to backup the disapproval....

[Lotto4Life]

Cash games on DK, he was chalky for most of the first half of the year.

I don't know what this means.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

2017:
62.9% Completion rating, 3,324 yds, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 86.6 Passer Rating | 357 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

2016:
67.8% Completion rating, 3,667 yds, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.9 Passer Rating | 282 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

That is a large enough sample size to say he doesn't have it, and simply state he is Andy Dalton?!?

I don't think he's destined to be a Dalton, but my concern is that 1. his INTs increased a lot once his offensive line play declined, which was inevitable after having the best line ever and 2. a lot of his points come from his 6 rushing TDs on 57 attempts both seasons (10.5% scoring rate) which will definitely regress (even Cam's career scoring rate is only 6.5%).

[xlur8ed]

Cash games on DK, he was chalky for most of the first half of the year.

I don't know what this means.

My bad, he was one of the Draftkings safest value plays week in and out....

Not super relevant, moreso just thoughts running through my head and coming out through the keyboard haha

[Cowboysfan33]

There are some super strong opinions on Dak in this forum. Most often it's negative. Am I missing something from a fantasy perspective that makes this guy so bad? Don't get me wrong, from an NFL perspective, he is about as inconsistent as it gets, but from a fantasy perspective I'm confused.

2016, 6pt passing TD, he finished as the #6 QB
2017, Weeks 1-9 with Zeke he was again #6 QB (2 points off Brady, 34 points off #1 with #1 not yet having their bye).

Cash games on DK, he was chalky for most of the first half of the year. Now it seems recency bias makes him look like he isn't a valuable fantasy asset, being he fell on his face with Zeke out.

I do own him in one league (signature), receiving him in a big trade that included sending Wilson packing, and felt pretty good that even though they aren't comparable NFL assets, for fantasy, the drop off isn't enormous.

Am I really missing something?

From a fantasy perspective, he’s got a safe floor due to his rushing abilities but lacks a great ceiling. Alot of people will say that it’s due to the lack of talent at WR but I think that’s part of it but I don’t think he does a good job of throwing guys open and his deep ball isn’t great either, imo. Trust me, I want him to succeed as a die hard Cowboys fan but the jury is out on him. His rookie season, everything went perfect and he was great. Last season, Tyron Smith goes down, Zeke is out 6 games and he wasn’t terrible but he wasn’t great either. Maybe eventually, as he progresses and as the Cowboys add talent to their WRs, maybe he’ll be more valuable in fantasy but right now he’s more of a game manager type, maybe like Alex Smith(before last season) and alot of it too is the Cowboys are such a run heavy team with Zeke and that strong o-line. I dont see them changing that approach any time soon.

[ArrylT]

Not sure why being Andy Dalton is a bad thing ... in his 7 years in the league he's had 3 top 12 finishes and never finished lower than 19 (and thats the year he only played 13 games) in a typical 4 pt per TD PPR setting. 6 pt per TD doesnt seem to really change that either.

I guess it is the "game manager" label - QBs with high floors & typically lower ceilings have as much "sex appeal" as those slot / reception WRs with high floors lower ceilings like Tate & Edelman (no need to mention Landry lol).

But a QB whose missed a total of 3 games in his career, and never had a worse than a mid QB2 season doesnt seem like such a negative. When you take away the 1 season where he missed games, you have a 50/50 shot at a QB1 season, and considering there are 32+ QBs vying for QB1 production thats pretty safe odds.

So 5 years from now, from a production standpoint, if you're saying Prescotts outcome is similar to Dalton, or everyones favorite underappreciated "game manager" - Alex Smith - that seems like it should be a positive and not a negative. Every year that a QB has a safe starting role is another year he could have the right combination of O-Line, offensive scheme & opportunity to put up one of those top 5 seasons (like Dalton did in 2013 and Smith did last year).

I do agree that a main concern with Prescott should be how viable the rushing production is long term - but that might just lower his floor from low end QB1 to mid-range QB2 which is what people consider Dalton & Smith anyways. And we already know that QBs take the longest to develop and dont hit their real prime until their early 30s.

[Phaded]

He is good but not elite.

The problem is, everyone is rushing out to get the newest shiniest QBs despite good ones playing until their mid-to-late 30s.

This community tends to overreact and every year there are new top young QBs based on a very small sample size. Last year at this time there were multiple threads advocating Derek Carr as THE QB1.

The bottom line is that aside from a couple elite ones, there is a lot of interchangeable players at QB and it is subject to opinion for who you like.

This happens with all positions to a certain rate but the way it happens around here with QB is astonishing.

With that said, a lot of QBs make for great buy lows for that reason. I will let everyone else chase the Carrs, Mariotas, Watsons & Wentz' of the world.

Dak is a good buy low if the owner is worried.

[Gtdano_14]

2017:
62.9% Completion rating, 3,324 yds, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 86.6 Passer Rating | 357 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

2016:
67.8% Completion rating, 3,667 yds, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.9 Passer Rating | 282 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs

That is a large enough sample size to say he doesn't have it, and simply state he is Andy Dalton?!?

He's regressing!!

In all seriousness, he's an easy target right now as expectations were higher after that rookie season. Perspectives/expectations change. My only thing against Dak was his inability to be Romo-esque and inflate Dez's value. Boooo Dak, Booo!

[xlur8ed]

Sounds like I am on par with more than just a few on Dak after all. I wouldn't bet on him being 2016 Dak annually, but I also don't think 2017 reflects properly either, as mentioned above, you lose your all pro LT, and your stud RB, and things have to change for the entire offense rather quickly, which for a young QB, isn't a good recipe for success.

[Vcize]

Dak basically has 1.5 seasons as a top 5 fantasy QB and half a season as a terrible one. He has already shown he has elite fantasy upside which is exactly what I look for in a fantasy QB since it's so easy in most leagues to get a middling low end QB1 if your upside guy flops.

I'll never understand why people (and the consensus even) prefer guys like Mariota/Winston to him who even at their best (despite having an extra year) were unusable in fantasy AND had worse efficiency numbers than a rookie Dak.

Best fantasy finish
Dak: QB6 (plus half a year as QB4 the following season)
Mariota: QB16
Winston: QB14

Best season YPA
Dak: 8.0
Mariota: 7.6
Winston: 7.6

Best season QB Rtg
Dak: 104.9
Winston: 92.2
Mariota: 88.6