Dynasty League Football Forum

RB values mostly don't appreciate over time, so I don't quite understand the take.

thebeast wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:34 pmLol. Really dug in on that one now looking for some out. I’d just chalk this one up to a miss and move on. Even self proclaimed RB gurus aren’t perfect.

The part where I missed is that I suggested he was worth selling back in August of 2019 because I thought he would never rise in value ever again. Many people did sell, some got 2nd rounds, and the value of those 2nd rounders in the 2020 draft made it worth the sell. He's probably worth a first now to the right person, and therefore I was wrong since his value went up, which is why my take was wrong.

However, I don't want to spend a 1st round pick on a RB that takes 3 years to be worth the value that I put into it. I think to use a 1st rounder on a RB that you have to wait on isn't worth your time. He's holding a bench spot hostage that entire time. Unless you're in a rebuild, I suggest that RoJo was a terrible investment overall.

I think Mike mostly got this one right.

If you drafted Rojo with a mid-to-late 1st, you've largely got an awful return on investment. Even when he has good games, nobody's offering first round value for him. He's either sweetener in a trade, or someone that people will only offer 2nd round value for.

So far he's having his best season on record, but his role isn't locked in.

It's funny to see people come back to a 1st round pick 3 years later who is a RB2 and bashing Mike. The situation is somehow still there for this guy. The talent? Meh.

This thread is entertaining

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:01 pmI bought my first and only share of him at 140 in a superflex startup last year, and I still can’t get anything for him now.

Update- made that pick within a week of when this thread was started, at the last chance to sell. Sold for a 2021 1st.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:31 pm It's funny to see people come back to a 1st round pick 3 years later who is a RB2 and bashing Mike. The situation is somehow still there for this guy. The talent? Meh.

RB2s have value.

It’s not the position - which has some merit IMO, it’s the attitude and absoluteness. You can’t paint a huge target on your own chest and then not expect people to take shots at you. Maybe that’s what is desired, but my perspective is that it’s counterproductive and draws away from better discussions.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:31 pm It's funny to see people come back to a 1st round pick 3 years later who is a RB2 and bashing Mike. The situation is somehow still there for this guy. The talent? Meh.

This thread doesn’t have anything to do with a prospect evaluation, though. The premise was that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was August 2019. That’s pretty demonstrably incorrect.

A lot of us did not like Jones-the-prospect but recognized that he had tremendous opportunity in Tampa.

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:07 pm This thread doesn’t have anything to do with a prospect evaluation, though. The premise was that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was August 2019. That’s pretty demonstrably incorrect.

i think we're giving semantics a bit too much importance though: if threads like this were titled "rojo is probably at peak value right now" the forum would be a lot more boring.

i just square-root every bold statement and assume it's a bit of theatrics for the fun.

killer_of_giants wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:32 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:07 pm This thread doesn’t have anything to do with a prospect evaluation, though. The premise was that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was August 2019. That’s pretty demonstrably incorrect.

i think we're giving semantics a bit too much importance though: if threads like this were titled "rojo is probably at peak value right now" the forum would be a lot more boring.

i just square-root every bold statement and assume it's a bit of theatrics for the fun.

I am encouraged to post bold statements to keep things interesting. I don't have to but I understand that if I do threads will stay lively and users will return. I understand that some people will pounce on the chance to wag their finger and say whatever, but that comes with the territory. These are also the same people who don't make bold claims of their own. It's more fun to poke the inaccuracies of others than it is to put yourself out there. Totally get it.

I still disagree that I was entirely wrong btw. Selling RoJo last year for a 2020 2nd could have netted you one of these quality WRs you're seeing on the field today, which were plentiful in the 2nd round. Your value would have increased more than a 2021 1st value. Not owning RoJo also makes 1 more spot on your roster for a waiver wire claim, or 2-1 trades, etc. It's not just the sole value, but all the variables that go with it.

He's worth more now and that's great. That means it wasn't the last chance to sell, but that doesn't mean selling last year was a bad idea either.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:00 pm

thebeast wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:34 pmLol. Really dug in on that one now looking for some out. I’d just chalk this one up to a miss and move on. Even self proclaimed RB gurus aren’t perfect.

The part where I missed is that I suggested he was worth selling back in August of 2019 because I thought he would never rise in value ever again. Many people did sell, some got 2nd rounds, and the value of those 2nd rounders in the 2020 draft made it worth the sell. He's probably worth a first now to the right person, and therefore I was wrong since his value went up, which is why my take was wrong.

However, I don't want to spend a 1st round pick on a RB that takes 3 years to be worth the value that I put into it. I think to use a 1st rounder on a RB that you have to wait on isn't worth your time. He's holding a bench spot hostage that entire time. Unless you're in a rebuild, I suggest that RoJo was a terrible investment overall.

I do not disagree with your take that waiting on a 1st round RB is not worth your time. But to get a quality RB, you need to spend a 1st round pick, or get lucky with a 2nd round pick.

However, with your viewpoint on not wanting to wait on RBs, would you agree that ALL of the RBs in the 2020 draft were overrated in dynasty drafts? A lot of people had the top 5 RBs ranked 1-5. I always thought that was ridiculous with high quality WR talents like Lamb and Juedy. CEH was thought to have a path to a large share of the carries, but no longer, JT was going to be and still is in a timeshare, Dobbins wasn't going to pan out until 2021, Swift probably profiles as a RBBC type and McVay told everyone he wants a RBBC. Yet, a lot of these RBs were viewed as potential bell cow backs when the reality is most all NFL RB's play in a RBBC. Every year people get annoyed at coaches given other RB's carries over their fantasy darlings. When the NFL goes to a 17 game season, RBBC will be even more common.

MikeH coming in to say “well actually this time I was wrong doesn’t count and here’s why” remains one of my absolute favorite things about this site. Honest.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:28 amI am encouraged to post bold statements to keep things interesting. I don't have to but I understand that if I do threads will stay lively and users will return.

I’m sorry, telling people to get rid of RoJo in August of 2019 was “bold?” What? And my lord, the sanctimony here. “I don’t have to, but I tell people to sell low on Ronald Jones so that DLF shall prosper,” is one of the least self-aware things I’ve read here. Wow.

Also, “I say things that are wrong to be provocative” would play a lot better if you didn’t devote such an unseemly amount of your time to convincing us how accurate your predictions are. Which is it? Are you really accurate, or are you the guy who just says provocative things? Or is it that you’re accurate when you’re right, but being provocative when you’re wrong?

And again, we’re saying that users are going to come back here for... telling people to get rid of a guy that the whole community was already down on? That’s the draw to the DLF Forums? Good lord.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:28 am I understand that some people will pounce on the chance to wag their finger and say whatever, but that comes with the territory.

My man, what “territory” are you talking about? You don’t have any territory. We’re talking about a dynasty fantasy football website. This is big time Dwight Shrute Assistant to the Regional Manager energy.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:28 am These are also the same people who don't make bold claims of their own. It's more fun to poke the inaccuracies of others than it is to put yourself out there. Totally get it.

Oh man, somebody is clearly wounded. Sorry.

First, yes. It’s fun. I’m having a great time. Every time I do this my inbox fills up with people laughing about this.

As for those of us who “don’t make bold claims of their own” well, uhm, okay. I don’t think “bold claims” are particularly helpful. I could start a thread calling Kalen Ballage a future RB1, and it would be “bold” and “provocative” and “keep things interesting,” and then for a fun twist tell everybody I was faking it, but does that make these forums a better place? I don’t see how it’s beneficial. There’s nothing wrong with a bold take but:
1. Boldness for the sake of boldness itself is dumb.
2. Telling people to get rid of RoJo in August of 2019 was the opposite of bold. It was chalk. You’re trying to set this up like you’re some martyr for making bold claims and getting called out on them, but “RoJo is bad” was like the most vanilla, bland take you could make at that point.

In any case, I think talking about the different ways we can evaluate players and using data and logic to point out which players might be overvalued or undervalued is far more interesting than “bold claims.”

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:28 am I still disagree that I was entirely wrong btw. Selling RoJo last year for a 2020 2nd could have netted you one of these quality WRs you're seeing on the field today, which were plentiful in the 2nd round. Your value would have increased more than a 2021 1st value. Not owning RoJo also makes 1 more spot on your roster for a waiver wire claim, or 2-1 trades, etc. It's not just the sole value, but all the variables that go with it.

He's worth more now and that's great. That means it wasn't the last chance to sell, but that doesn't mean selling last year was a bad idea either.

Yikes. The lengths you’ll go to in order to avoid admitting you were incorrect about something are always a little startling, even after seeing it over an over. This isn’t as bad as “I was just trying to trick somebody into trading for Kalen Ballage, that one doesn’t count!” but it’s getting close. If you say “this is your last chance to sell” and then the player’s value goes up, you were wrong. I don’t know how to make it more simple than that. Like sure, you could have traded him for a 2020 5th and then picked James Robinson, but that doesn’t make the advice to sell low any better.

As always, Mike, thank you for taking time out of your day to do this. This has been a blast, I genuinely appreciate you.

This backfield will be interesting once LF gets healthy. RoJo has made an argument to still be a big part of the equation with his performances this year. He's looked very good as of late. Much better than Vaughn or McCoy in their limited touches.

CGW wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:45 pm This backfield will be interesting once LF gets healthy. RoJo has made an argument to still be a big part of the equation with his performances this year. He's looked very good as of late. Much better than Vaughn or McCoy in their limited touches.

Yeah. Entirely possible that Fournette never really gets healthy/is a bad fit and Jones just runs away with it.

Also entirely possible that Jones turns back into a pumpkin and Fournette has a massive second half.

Like you said, interesting.

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:07 amMikeH coming in to say “well actually this time I was wrong doesn’t count and here’s why”

I was wrong. It does count.

All I said is that I still like my opinion that selling was a good idea because of how rich the 2020 draft was.

You took a lot of time writing that. Chillll....