The Always Underappreciated AJ Green Thread
The Always Underappreciated AJ Green Thread
All,
I'm curious how people view/use "expert" rankings for dynasty. I'm not criticizing the rankings themselves, I'm trying to understand how to interpret them.
In both the Essentials Guide and on FBG, AJ Green is ranked as the number 9 WR. Obviously he is much lower on the "contending team list" and in FBG's redraft listing.
So is the "main" dynasty ranking to be viewed as a list for rebuild? I guess my main point is that I can't really understand under what circumstances AJ Green is the number 9 most valuable WR in dynasty so that makes me question the intent of the rankings because obviously I'm missing something. Is the list to be viewed as a ranking of relative value (e.g. AJ Green has the 9th most "value")? At which point I suppose the list is a guide for making trades but not necessarily building a team. Or something.
Help me out.
Tim
I'm curious how people view/use "expert" rankings for dynasty. I'm not criticizing the rankings themselves, I'm trying to understand how to interpret them.
In both the Essentials Guide and on FBG, AJ Green is ranked as the number 9 WR. Obviously he is much lower on the "contending team list" and in FBG's redraft listing.
So is the "main" dynasty ranking to be viewed as a list for rebuild? I guess my main point is that I can't really understand under what circumstances AJ Green is the number 9 most valuable WR in dynasty so that makes me question the intent of the rankings because obviously I'm missing something. Is the list to be viewed as a ranking of relative value (e.g. AJ Green has the 9th most "value")? At which point I suppose the list is a guide for making trades but not necessarily building a team. Or something.
Help me out.
Tim
- seahawks506
- Player of the Year
- Posts: 2108
- Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 9:20 pm
- Location: Wall St
Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)
I don't think Green has the value of a top 10 WR (more like a low-mid WR2 at this point I think) but he's definitely being drafted like a top 10.
orphan rebuild- 3 superflex, nerfed QB scoring 0.5/1/1.5 wr/rb/te PPR
QB: Hurts, Dobbs, Lance, Huntley, Bagent
RB: Swift, Kamara, Sanders, K. Mitchell, Foreman, CEH, Dowdle, Demercado
WR: Lamb, AJB, DK, Hollywood, Jakobi, Lazard, Boyd, Shaheed, Douglas
TE: Chig, Juwan, Conklin, Taysom, Smythe
Picks: 3 2024 2nds
rebuild 2: 1QB PPR
QB: Richardson, Pickett, Mayfield
RB: Achane, E Mitchell, Demercado
WR: Chase, Addison, QJ, J Palmer, Wan'Dale, Claypool, Douglas, Metchie
TE: Kittle, Mayer, Otton, Ferguson
Picks: 3 2024 1sts, 2 2024 2nds
QB: Hurts, Dobbs, Lance, Huntley, Bagent
RB: Swift, Kamara, Sanders, K. Mitchell, Foreman, CEH, Dowdle, Demercado
WR: Lamb, AJB, DK, Hollywood, Jakobi, Lazard, Boyd, Shaheed, Douglas
TE: Chig, Juwan, Conklin, Taysom, Smythe
Picks: 3 2024 2nds
rebuild 2: 1QB PPR
QB: Richardson, Pickett, Mayfield
RB: Achane, E Mitchell, Demercado
WR: Chase, Addison, QJ, J Palmer, Wan'Dale, Claypool, Douglas, Metchie
TE: Kittle, Mayer, Otton, Ferguson
Picks: 3 2024 1sts, 2 2024 2nds
- dlf_ericd
- Administrator
- Posts: 3694
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:41 am
- Location: Kansas City, MO
- Contact:
Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)
I usually think those rankings are always too high for rookie WR, but seem to represent a reasonable expectation for their floor long-term. Obviously, there's no way to tell who is going to be a bust and who isn't, but it seems to outline what kind of long-term potential a player has & some use it as a "this is as high as I would reasonably take this player in a start up draft" type of ranking.tstafford wrote:All,
I'm curious how people view/use "expert" rankings for dynasty. I'm not criticizing the rankings themselves, I'm trying to understand how to interpret them.
In both the Essentials Guide and on FBG, AJ Green is ranked as the number 9 WR. Obviously he is much lower on the "contending team list" and in FBG's redraft listing.
So is the "main" dynasty ranking to be viewed as a list for rebuild? I guess my main point is that I can't really understand under what circumstances AJ Green is the number 9 most valuable WR in dynasty so that makes me question the intent of the rankings because obviously I'm missing something. Is the list to be viewed as a ranking of relative value (e.g. AJ Green has the 9th most "value")? At which point I suppose the list is a guide for making trades but not necessarily building a team. Or something.
Help me out.
Tim
I find it really hard to include rookies in regular rankings without seeing their role, preseason, or how their skills translate to the NFL.
On twitter? Hit me up @DLFootball
Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)
I don't really look at rankings to be honest. I just watch as much football as I can, read as much as I can, and come up with my own. That said, I have Green as my #8 WR but you are 100% right. Rankings are somewhat useless because they should change depending on the makeup of your team. Green may be the #6 WR for a rebuilding team but the #18 WR for a win now team. It should be fluid.
Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)
Subjectivity is far and away the #1 issue with any ranking system. I have little issue with seeing AJ Green ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR, though it may be a little higher than I am comfortable with. There are others who I believe are way too high or way too low.
Any owner should be breaking their players out in some kind of a system of rankings or tiers as it is easier to analyze value in trade/draft. A perfect example is the Wallace/Desean discussion. Some sided with Desean, more it seemed with Wallace - if we were to put them in tiers most of us may put him in the same tier. We may favor one over the other, but that part of it ends up being more subjective.
As the owner of the 1.1 (AJ Green), it was important to have him in a tier in regard to my willingness to move him. After I had drafted him I had a couple of owners probing me with questions in regard to whether or not I would have accepted certain players. One of them asked me if I would have accepted Dez straight up, who many regard as a top 10 WR. While most here know that I don't have him as a top 10 WR, I recognize that he is valued by many as such. It was a simple "no" and I moved on. So basically on my own valuation of Green, where he ranks is roughly correct in terms of "value". There are a couple of names behind him on that ranking I would move him for, but a couple of names in front who I wouldn't.
Any owner should be breaking their players out in some kind of a system of rankings or tiers as it is easier to analyze value in trade/draft. A perfect example is the Wallace/Desean discussion. Some sided with Desean, more it seemed with Wallace - if we were to put them in tiers most of us may put him in the same tier. We may favor one over the other, but that part of it ends up being more subjective.
As the owner of the 1.1 (AJ Green), it was important to have him in a tier in regard to my willingness to move him. After I had drafted him I had a couple of owners probing me with questions in regard to whether or not I would have accepted certain players. One of them asked me if I would have accepted Dez straight up, who many regard as a top 10 WR. While most here know that I don't have him as a top 10 WR, I recognize that he is valued by many as such. It was a simple "no" and I moved on. So basically on my own valuation of Green, where he ranks is roughly correct in terms of "value". There are a couple of names behind him on that ranking I would move him for, but a couple of names in front who I wouldn't.
If you can't leave at least a 20% tip, you can't afford to eat out.
- JohnnyFive
- Captain
- Posts: 764
- Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 7:08 pm
- Location: Janesville, Wisconsin
Re: Rankings Interpretation (AJ Green)
I only use rankings like the ones at DLF to see how other people value players. I also like to read what they say about them to gather as much information as I can to come up with my own rankings. I am sure most of you know your stuff when it comes to fantasy football and do much of the same. Gather Information and make your own list of who you like and who to stay away from. Also, I would never value a rookie inside the top 10 of any list. As far as AJ Green, with all the stuff I have read I value Jones just slightly higher, but not by much.
Keep On Rockin In The Free World
What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
Is he on his way to the top tier?
If you were drafting dynasty for 2012, do you take A.J. before almost any WR?
If you were drafting dynasty for 2012, do you take A.J. before almost any WR?
Please give us a visit for awesome FF content:
extrapointff.com
extrapointff.com
- cleanwillyb
- Captain
- Posts: 840
- Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:11 pm
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
Yes and yes.
I mean, what more could you possibly expect from a rookie WR than what Green has done so far? He has looked every bit the player he was made out to be coming out of college and he's only going to grow.
To be clear, I take Green before ANY 2012 WR, not before 'almost any'.
I mean, what more could you possibly expect from a rookie WR than what Green has done so far? He has looked every bit the player he was made out to be coming out of college and he's only going to grow.
To be clear, I take Green before ANY 2012 WR, not before 'almost any'.
16 team 0.5 PPR IDP dynasty league. 5th Season.
QB: D. Brees, M. Stafford
RB: L. McCoy, D. Martin, J. Charles, R. Mendenhall, D. Wilson
WR: C. Johnson, H. Nicks, A. Green, J. Jones, R. Meachem
TE: J. Graham, J. Finley
DL: JPP, C. Johnson, J. Tuck
LB: S. Lee, J. Lauranaitis, C. McCarthy, J. Beason, D. Bishop,
CB: J. Haden, R. Sherman
S: P. Chung, M. Burnett, B. Pollard
2010-2012 Champ
QB: D. Brees, M. Stafford
RB: L. McCoy, D. Martin, J. Charles, R. Mendenhall, D. Wilson
WR: C. Johnson, H. Nicks, A. Green, J. Jones, R. Meachem
TE: J. Graham, J. Finley
DL: JPP, C. Johnson, J. Tuck
LB: S. Lee, J. Lauranaitis, C. McCarthy, J. Beason, D. Bishop,
CB: J. Haden, R. Sherman
S: P. Chung, M. Burnett, B. Pollard
2010-2012 Champ
-
- Ring of Fame
- Posts: 3329
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:05 am
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
cleanwillyb wrote:Yes and yes.
I mean, what more could you possibly expect from a rookie WR than what Green has done so far? He has looked every bit the player he was made out to be coming out of college and he's only going to grow.
To be clear, I take Green before ANY 2012 WR, not before 'almost any'.
I'm pretty sure he means start up and not rookie.. unless you mean you would take him over cj!
12 team 1 ppr 6 pt all tds
1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 1 rb/wr 1 te 1k
qb Ryan, Vick, nassib, Barkley
RB DMC, Gore, Sporles, Stacy, Hillman, Moreno,
WR aj green,welker, Britt, Blackmon, DeMary
TE Davis, Cook, Housler, Allen
1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 1 rb/wr 1 te 1k
qb Ryan, Vick, nassib, Barkley
RB DMC, Gore, Sporles, Stacy, Hillman, Moreno,
WR aj green,welker, Britt, Blackmon, DeMary
TE Davis, Cook, Housler, Allen
- theimposter
- Practice Squad
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:42 pm
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
If you look for his ceiling, you're going to see an open sky with Megatron and Andre smiling down from the heavens.
12 Team 35-Man Roster PPR IDP: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR, 2DB, 2LB, 2DL, 1DB/LB/DL
Orphaned (and abused) Rebuild
QB: Luck, Geno
RB: Lynch, Wilson, A. Brown, Hunter, James, Bell, Robinson, Green
WR: Stevie, Torrey, Rice, Wright, G. Tate, J. Baldwin, Wheaton, T. Williams, A. Robinson, Ford, M. Wilson
TE: Graham, McDonald
DB: Chancellor, A. Williams, Iloka
DL: C. Johnson, Quinn, Jordan
LB: Wagner, Butler, Allen, Ayers, Wheeler, Bradham
Orphaned (and abused) Rebuild
QB: Luck, Geno
RB: Lynch, Wilson, A. Brown, Hunter, James, Bell, Robinson, Green
WR: Stevie, Torrey, Rice, Wright, G. Tate, J. Baldwin, Wheaton, T. Williams, A. Robinson, Ford, M. Wilson
TE: Graham, McDonald
DB: Chancellor, A. Williams, Iloka
DL: C. Johnson, Quinn, Jordan
LB: Wagner, Butler, Allen, Ayers, Wheeler, Bradham
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
VJax was an offer for him.
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
I agree. Sky's the limit.theimposter wrote:If you look for his ceiling, you're going to see an open sky with Megatron and Andre smiling down from the heavens.
Barrow Snowmen- 14 team - 0.5 PPR, IDP - Yr 19
Jacksonville Jaguars - 32 team - Real GM - Yr 13
Barrow Snowmen #2 - 14 team - SF, PPR - Yr 2
Jacksonville Jaguars - 32 team - Real GM - Yr 13
Barrow Snowmen #2 - 14 team - SF, PPR - Yr 2
Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:Don't let your recency bias affect your judgment.
- tidewaterjc
- All Pro
- Posts: 1652
- Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2011 6:20 pm
- Location: Virginia
- Contact:
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
That is horrible.... Green will be twice the WR VJax is - without the headaches.....tjaden wrote:VJax was an offer for him.
Twitter: @tidewaterjc
Email: tidewaterjc@gmail.com
Need a FF Team Helmet?
Custom FF Helmets/Banners available
http://s1324.photobucket.com/user/tidewaterjc/profile/
Email: tidewaterjc@gmail.com
Need a FF Team Helmet?
Custom FF Helmets/Banners available
http://s1324.photobucket.com/user/tidewaterjc/profile/
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
As to the second question: no I wouldn't. The exact order would depend on league scoring (PPR or non), but there are probably three or four guys I'd take ahead of Green. But that still makes him a solid/elite WR1 on my board and that's pretty huge for a rookie.ascherb wrote:Is he on his way to the top tier?
If you were drafting dynasty for 2012, do you take A.J. before almost any WR?
Note: If you meant just rookies, then yes I would take Green over all of them including Richardson. So to be clear, I wouldn't trade Green for the 2012 1.01 under any circumstances (meaning even if Richardson is drafted by the perfect NFL team for him). Richardson may well end up having more dynasty value than Green - productive RBs are always worth more than WRs (unless they're Mega). But for now, AJ Green is a proven commodity and for all we know Richardson could bust.
As to ceiling: There really isn't one. Frankly everything we've seen so far is just confirmation that we were right this preseason - he's super talented. It's astonishing that he's been able to put up these numbers so quickly, but we fully expected they'd come sooner or later. I've consistently said I believed he has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy WR and that's still where I'd take him.
Word of caution: I expect we will see a decrease in Green's production for the rest of 2011. He has bad match-ups, he's still a rookie, Dalton is still a rookie, etc. The length and wear and tear of an NFL season is very different than college. Don't be surprised to see some mediocre numbers the rest of the way, but have no fear AJ Green is a stud.
-
- Pro Bowler
- Posts: 1231
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 6:41 am
Re: What's A.J. Green's Ceiling?
Yes i hate vjax hes the djax of the afc. I want to move him for value if i get a chance. Did u see how he friggin disappeared last night....
QB: C Wentz, D Lock, M Stafford (IR)
RB: N Chubb, D Henry, M Mack, M Boone
WR: Julio, A Cooper, AJ Brown, T Lockett, N Harry, TY Hilton
TE: J Cook, T Higbee, N Fant
K: Y Koo, R Bullock
D: Chiefs, Steelers
12 Teams Dynasty League, 19 Players Roster, Standard Scoring/Pass TD 3pts
Roster Restriction: Must carry at least 2 at each position, including defense.
Start 1QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D
RB: N Chubb, D Henry, M Mack, M Boone
WR: Julio, A Cooper, AJ Brown, T Lockett, N Harry, TY Hilton
TE: J Cook, T Higbee, N Fant
K: Y Koo, R Bullock
D: Chiefs, Steelers
12 Teams Dynasty League, 19 Players Roster, Standard Scoring/Pass TD 3pts
Roster Restriction: Must carry at least 2 at each position, including defense.
Start 1QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 21 guests