ninotoreS wrote: ↑Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:02 am
Johnny Canuck wrote: ↑Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:32 am
a workload opportunity more like AP, Fournette, and Zeke should be expected - between 250-300 carries
In seriousness, though:
Those examples of RBs had/have something in common: a subpar passing offense. It's uncommon that you see an RB reach the 300 carry mark in an offense with a QB that's reaching 4k+ passing yardage every year.
I won't project Chubb for 300 carries in '20 or beyond (and I do expect Hyde to get cut in '19, for the record) because I'm optimistic about Baker Mayfield.
I agree that the bolded portion is "uncommon", however the 4k/300 carry inverse correlation isn't 100%, and the constant deviation within that correlation gives me optimism about Chubbs future usage, even though, I'm also quite high on the Browns future passing attack. Let me explain...
Let's examine the closest indicator we have for future usage of the Browns/Chubb, the guy who calls plays and actually dictates usage, Todd Haley.
The fact that Todd Haley is calling the plays in Cleveland changes things a bit. For ref, Haley was the OC in Pitt since 2012, Lev Bell joined the team in 2013. The entire time Bell has been on Pitt with Haley, he's been on pace for and/or hit the 300 carry mark every season with the exception of 2014 (where he had 290 carries). So pretty much every yr Bell has been on a 300 carry pace, obvs he didn't hit it every season due to injury, but that's the usage pattern. In conjunction with this, the Pitt offense has put up over 4k passing yardage every year that Bell paced/broke 300 carries.
Sooooooo the fact that Todd Haley did that as the OC with Pitt, and now he's the OC on the Browns, gives me some optimism.
After a quick scan, these are the teams that have had 4K in passing yards, and utilized an RB on a 300 carry pace.
2017
- Rivers/MG3
- Big Ben/Bell
2016
- Palmer/DJ (290 carries)
- Big Ben/Bell
- Brady & Jimmy G/Blount (299 carries)
- Rivers/MG3
2015
- Big Ben/Bell
- Winston/Dmart (288 carries)
2014
- Big Ben/Bell
- Foles & Sanchez/McCoy
2013
- Big Ben/Bell
- Cutler & McCown/Forte
- Rivers/Mathews (285 carries)
Now obviously you are correct in the vast majority of cases, it is true that a team will not have a 300 carry back and throw for more than 4k in yardage. But there is a handful of exceptions to the rule each year...and the constant exception is Big Ben/Bell, and by extension Todd Haley. Now this could be simply due to Bell being an outlier at his position (which he is), but there are other outliers at the RB position that don't get used so heavily by different coaches, so the guy calling the plays definitely has an effect. In addition, I also think that Chubb has the talent to be an outlier at the position as well (obviously more so in between the tackles).
So long story short, I'm pretty optimistic that even if the Browns find a solid passing game, Todd Haley will still lean heavily on his fav RB...like he has done for the last five years.