Darrell Henderson

[FantasyFreak]

If you were smart enough to grab Henderson in the 2nd, isn't this the time to see if you can get a mid 2020 first and cash in? He's a guy with a good skill set, but one that projects to being a committee back, who needs everything to break a certain way in order for him to be the starter (Gurley hurt, no other backs signed, no injuries himself, no challenge from Brown who got resigned, living up to his own playing potential). Of course you *might* be wrong and he turns into the starter, but more likely than not you'll be getting a chance to draft a better talent next year.

It probably is. If he has a good preseason game against 2nd stringers, or Gurley's timetable for return lengthens, his value may climb, but I doubt it gets higher than a 2020 first, unless he does become the starter, as those 2020 firsts are being held with vice grips in most cases. I certainly wouldn't sell Henderson for less than that if you spent a 2nd round rookie pick this year on him. Targeting the Gurley owners 2020 first might be worth a shot if his team isn't too strong. TBH, that class is looking very deep, so even if it ends up being a later first, it wouldn't be such a bad thing.

[themburns]

I'd give a 2020 1st for Henderson if I had to. The team traded up into the early 3rd for him. To me, that's an indicator that they had him graded as a 2nd round talent. His college production was elite, and the GM has talked about Henderson bringing a "Kamara like element" to their offense. Even if you're more bullish on Gurley's knee than I am, Henderson doesn't need a huge workload to be productive. Todd Gurley led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, 10 yard line, 5 yard line, a feat that he will not accomplish again this next season barring horrible misuse. There are many high value carries to be had, and I think grading the backs on pure talent in this class, Henderson is second behind Jacobs.

[FantasyFreak]

I'd give a 2020 1st for Henderson if I had to. The team traded up into the early 3rd for him. To me, that's an indicator that they had him graded as a 2nd round talent. His college production was elite, and the GM has talked about Henderson bringing a "Kamara like element" to their offense. Even if you're more bullish on Gurley's knee than I am, Henderson doesn't need a huge workload to be productive. Todd Gurley led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, 10 yard line, 5 yard line, a feat that he will not accomplish again this next season barring horrible misuse. There are many high value carries to be had, and I think grading the backs on pure talent in this class, Henderson is second behind Jacobs.

I agree Henderson is a good player, I really like him, but the whole "Kamara" thing gets thrown around all the time. Kamara's production is not going to be easily repeated by anyone. Also, the Saints did not have a Gurley like talent already. I can't imagine Gurley not being used inside the 10 and 5, that would not be misuse, that would be proper use, at least in my opinion. I personally would rather have a 2020 first over Henderson, things can change quickly and a projected mid to late first can easily turn into an early first with a few injuries or close losses, and the talent in next years class is worth that gamble to me.

[Jigga94]

I just don't see it with Henderson. Best case scenario is if you drafted him in the late 1st and are able to flip him if Gurley goes down.

I'm more worried about Gurley than I am optimistic about Henderson/Brown.

[Cameron Giles]

I'd give a 2020 1st for Henderson if I had to. The team traded up into the early 3rd for him. To me, that's an indicator that they had him graded as a 2nd round talent. His college production was elite, and the GM has talked about Henderson bringing a "Kamara like element" to their offense. Even if you're more bullish on Gurley's knee than I am, Henderson doesn't need a huge workload to be productive. Todd Gurley led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, 10 yard line, 5 yard line, a feat that he will not accomplish again this next season barring horrible misuse. There are many high value carries to be had, and I think grading the backs on pure talent in this class, Henderson is second behind Jacobs.

Seems like a bad use of a 1st, especially when you're more likely to get a starting RB with that pick in a year.

[Phaded]

If the Saints could get such great production out of a Ingram/Kamara combo - why couldn't the Rams and McVay get it out of Gurley/Henderson?

The scheme fit is perfect for Henderson; and even if he starts off getting eased in - he is your ideal change of pace back. Good receiving skills and capable of breaking off a big play any time he touches the ball.

McVay is one of the few coaches in the league (sad there are so little) who actually knows how to use his weapons and HE wanted Henderson.

[themburns]

I'd give a 2020 1st for Henderson if I had to. The team traded up into the early 3rd for him. To me, that's an indicator that they had him graded as a 2nd round talent. His college production was elite, and the GM has talked about Henderson bringing a "Kamara like element" to their offense. Even if you're more bullish on Gurley's knee than I am, Henderson doesn't need a huge workload to be productive. Todd Gurley led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, 10 yard line, 5 yard line, a feat that he will not accomplish again this next season barring horrible misuse. There are many high value carries to be had, and I think grading the backs on pure talent in this class, Henderson is second behind Jacobs.

Seems like a bad use of a 1st, especially when you're more likely to get a starting RB with that pick in a year.

Pithy take, but what draft capital would you expect to be behind a mid 1st dynasty pick next year at running back? I'd wager that you're looking at a back with a 2nd round grade, and a production profile that is likely no better than what Henderson has already put up, and that's not taking into account the landing spot of Henderson versus the unknown landing spots of the 2020 class. It's not as cut and dry as you'd like to present things. Especially when you get to use the RB in your lineup a season earlier.

[FantasyFreak]

If the Saints could get such great production out of a Ingram/Kamara combo - why couldn't the Rams and McVay get it out of Gurley/Henderson?

The scheme fit is perfect for Henderson; and even if he starts off getting eased in - he is your ideal change of pace back. Good receiving skills and capable of breaking off a big play any time he touches the ball.

McVay is one of the few coaches in the league (sad there are so little) who actually knows how to use his weapons and HE wanted Henderson.

Gurley>>>>>>>>>>>Ingram. The Rams receiving corps is also deeper than the Saints was. I'm not sure there have ever been two high end RB's 1's in a season on any other team. The Saints model and output is a complete outlier, and Kamara's talent is elite. It is possible, however that type of outcome isn't something you should be putting your money on. It is a historical outlier.

[Pullo Vision]

The OP literally titled his first post: Does Darrell Henderson scare Todd Gurley owners?

Then asked this question: As a Gurley owner in plenty of leagues I am curious what everyone thinks.

That was the original post in it's entirety.

Yes it was, and I thought that was a disservice to Henderson. When he finally gets his own thread, it turns back to Gurley. He is not Gurley's shadow with no independent value. It's not unreasonable to consider him a committee back with RB1 potential if Gurley goes down.

At the very least, I'd expect a RB with his college production landing in this potent offense with only a one-knee Gurley blocking him to generate more positive discussion.

We don't even know the severity of Gurley's issues, though. You talk about disservice, but you are talking like an elite talent at RB in Gurley can't play football anymore with the "one knee Gurley" statement. He hasn't had his leg amputated. I'm just commenting on the lines of the thread the OP started, that's what is expected when a thread is started. We deviate sometimes, but are supposed to keep it within the context of the original thread posters questions and idea for the thread. It's going to be hard to have a thread about a rookie running back going to a situation in which the premier back over the last few years currently resides and discuss them and their situations independently. Henderson's production and future over the next 4 years are directly tied to the health of Todd Gurley.

So, there were two separate threads merged into this- 1st one was asking about Henderson's impact on Gurley. The thread title made it clear. I had no interest in that and didn't post in it.

The 2nd was titled merely Darrell Henderson but the OP was about Gurley and Henderson's impact. I hoped the thread title would steer this towards a discussion about the rookie.

If we really want to talk about Gurley's health-
Ajayi- pre-existing knee condition, pre draft questions about if he'd survive to a 2nd contract
Michel- pre-existing knee issue; will he get a 2nd contract?
Gurley- pre-existing knee concern, entering his 5th year as a 1st round pick; knee injury sidelined his 4th regular season (and that postseason); already signed an extension, but will his production, performance, and availability validate that?

I had Gurley in one league last year and Kamara in two. Wouldn't surprise me if they manage Gurley's touches the same way Kamara's were managed last year- give his back up/committee mate a heavier load against easier opponents. In that scenario, Henderson becomes a dependable option with a good ceiling if Gurley suffers a setback.

It would also not surprise me if Gurley were valued where Freeman is now next year- a big name RB with a proven RB1 ceiling but a low any-game floor. From that perspective, Henderson would deserve to be valued around T Coleman.

In fact, Coleman is a good value and production comparison for Henderson as the back up and 1b in a strong offense. I was never a Coleman fan, but I think Henderson can offer similar production and value.

[themburns]

I do agree that the Ingram/Kamara comp isn't quite right, seems to me more like a Priest Holmes to Larry Johnson situation.

[MEuRaH]

Anybody spending a 1st on Henderson is going to regret it. I just want to go on record in this thread to plant my flag now.

Henderson isn't going to pan out. You're all wasting your time and energy on him. Sell now while he still has crazy value while you can.

Henderson is this years RoJo.

[FantasyFreak]

Anybody spending a 1st on Henderson is going to regret it. I just want to go on record in this thread to plant my flag now.

Henderson isn't going to pan out. You're all wasting your time and energy on him. Sell now while he still has crazy value while you can.

Henderson is this years RoJo.

We need a plant Flag emoji. Damn, I can't see him being Rojo level bad, unless you mean a guy that doesn't remotely come close to his rookie draft capital.

[MontrealBen]

In fact, Coleman is a good value and production comparison for Henderson as the back up and 1b in a strong offense. I was never a Coleman fan, but I think Henderson can offer similar production and value.

See, I think that we have to make a bunch of assumptions to get him to Coleman value. Fairly reasonable ones, but you still have assume positive outcomes, which means you probably aren't pricing him at his median with that valuation. Don't we do this *every single year* with the incoming rookie class? Imagine a rosy scenario for the shiny new toy, forgetting that there is a downside?

*brief interlude while I gaze longingly at my Bishop Sankey poster*

Anyway, getting a mid-first next year probably prices him above his median outcome. I could be wrong. We all could. But here's what's happened. We *all* knew about Gurley's knee issues. Nothing has changed, except that more speculative articles have repeated the same thing over and over. Before the Glazer piece and a couple others recently, Henderson was being drafted in the 2nd round based on an assessment of skill and situation. His situation hasn't changed and his skill set hasn't changed, but his value has jumped a full round in some people's eyes (and in a better class to boot, in all likelihood). This is a classic, classic, chance to sell and grab some extra value that was created for you out of nothing more than the need for online clicks.

As for the argument above about losing a year of the guy playing for you, I sincerely hope you were not counting on your 2nd round rookie RB filling your minutes gap this year. If so, a 2020 1st is exactly what you need.

[DJB]

Henderson shouldn't be what specifically scare you. What should scare you is that the Rams have pretty much gone all out to conceal the details of his knee injury. Their actions confirm it, as they kept Malcolm Brown and moved up to draft an RB with a 3rd.

Gurley is still an RB1 until proven otherwise, but the Rams seem to:

1. Have plans to dial back his volume.
2. Want to have a capable RB group behind him in case he needs rest days.

]To me, this is the issue with being a workhorse. Everyone wants that 1 RB in dynasty who never comes off the field, but ultimately those players increase wear/tear and inevitably backups are drafted behind them to cut into volume.

This is a major reason why I always try and get rid of my RBs as soon as their rookie deal is up. Or at least not be depending on RBs that are off their rookie deals.

That's pretty smart advice honestly. At that point their value is probably at the peak anyways

[Cult of Dionysus]

Exactly, when it comes to RBs, their shelf lives are short and even the best ones are becoming disposable as soon as they hit a bump. Why pay a gimpy Gurley?