Corey Davis vs the 2019 Rookie WRs

[ericanadian]

It’s funny you bring up Adams given his outlook after year two.

The only thing comparable about Adams & CD are that they both struggled for their first two years in the league. Other than that it's apples and oranges.

Maybe CD makes the 3rd yr jump as well, but personally I'm not ready to put my chips in on that bet, based on his current situation. Like some of you guys say, situations change, and I'll gladly snatch up CD right before his situation changes in 2020. If he breaks out this season then so be it, it's a calculated risk.

They were also both small school prospects who dominated in college and started their first NFL season at 22. Both went from being the third/fourth option in year one to starting year two due to injuries to the teams number one option (Nelson & Walker) and had their respective QBs put up arguably the worst seasons of their careers due to offensive line issues and/or nagging injuries. They’re both versatile receivers who aren’t burners. Sure, they have their differences and if you’re comparing who they are today, Adams is clearly the guy. I’m just not ready to write off Davis and I picked him up fairly cheap (Basically moved Josh Gordon for him as part of a bigger trade).

[PR0v3]

Davis’s market share was 29% last year which is very good and ranks with some of the best. He has had multiple big games. His only issue to date has been a Titans offense not clicking for 2 seasons now. The Titans will be full of tons of fantasy value this season as the majority of fantasy owners have written them off completely despite it being May.

Yep. Davis had 900 yards on an offense that threw for 2975! He had a greater share of his offense’s passing than Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Odell, etc.

People say that he’s not that good because actual good WRs, like Hopkins, put up numbers without a QB, but even the 2016 Osweiler Texans threw for 500 more yeards than last year’s Titans (when Hopkins had 78/954/4).

With Tannehill in the fold, the Titans are a virtual lock to have a 3500 yard passing offense floor, which is terrible, but even that pathetic amount Davis should have no trouble eclipsing 1000 yards. With a bump up to 3800 yards, Davis has a chance to be in the 1100-1200 range.
Sure he doesn’t have top 5 upside on the team as is, but Davis was a back end WR2 in most formats last year and it is virtually impossible for the passing offense to be any worse.

Davis’ talent isn’t really up for debate IMO and acceptable production is not far away at all. He is far and away the best prospect of any WR in this class and is the closest to actually producing.

[Chwf3rd]

Davis’s market share was 29% last year which is very good and ranks with some of the best. He has had multiple big games. His only issue to date has been a Titans offense not clicking for 2 seasons now. The Titans will be full of tons of fantasy value this season as the majority of fantasy owners have written them off completely despite it being May.

Yep. Davis had 900 yards on an offense that threw for 2975! He had a greater share of his offense’s passing than Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Odell, etc.

People say that he’s not that good because actual good WRs, like Hopkins, put up numbers without a QB, but even the 2016 Osweiler Texans threw for 500 more yeards than last year’s Titans (when Hopkins had 78/954/4).

With Tannehill in the fold, the Titans are a virtual lock to have a 3500 yard passing offense floor, which is terrible, but even that pathetic amount Davis should have no trouble eclipsing 1000 yards. With a bump up to 3800 yards, Davis has a chance to be in the 1100-1200 range.
Sure he doesn’t have top 5 upside on the team as is, but Davis was a back end WR2 in most formats last year and it is virtually impossible for the passing offense to be any worse.

Davis’ talent isn’t really up for debate IMO and acceptable production is not far away at all. He is far and away the best prospect of any WR in this class and is the closest to actually producing.

Why isnt his talent up for debate? Because his market share was high last year? He's a solid WR but not an elite talent and was significantly overdrafted by TEN.

[PR0v3]

Davis’s market share was 29% last year which is very good and ranks with some of the best. He has had multiple big games. His only issue to date has been a Titans offense not clicking for 2 seasons now. The Titans will be full of tons of fantasy value this season as the majority of fantasy owners have written them off completely despite it being May.

Yep. Davis had 900 yards on an offense that threw for 2975! He had a greater share of his offense’s passing than Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Odell, etc.

People say that he’s not that good because actual good WRs, like Hopkins, put up numbers without a QB, but even the 2016 Osweiler Texans threw for 500 more yeards than last year’s Titans (when Hopkins had 78/954/4).

With Tannehill in the fold, the Titans are a virtual lock to have a 3500 yard passing offense floor, which is terrible, but even that pathetic amount Davis should have no trouble eclipsing 1000 yards. With a bump up to 3800 yards, Davis has a chance to be in the 1100-1200 range.
Sure he doesn’t have top 5 upside on the team as is, but Davis was a back end WR2 in most formats last year and it is virtually impossible for the passing offense to be any worse.

Davis’ talent isn’t really up for debate IMO and acceptable production is not far away at all. He is far and away the best prospect of any WR in this class and is the closest to actually producing.

Why isnt his talent up for debate? Because his market share was high last year? He's a solid WR but not an elite talent and was significantly overdrafted by TEN.

Film.

I could not care less where he was drafted. Considering his film and production given the situation, it would be clear he has excellent ability even if he were a seventh rounder.

[turkjetfan]

I traded CD and my 2020 1 for DK and stills

I’m a DK believer. I like CD but he’s in a terrible situation and is now competing for bad targets with probably a better wr in aj brown and a slot machine.

Stills is a good flier imo. Very talented and finally has a qb (whoever it is) that won’t suck and I believe make him more consistent.

Wouldn’t be shocked if stills had a better 2019 than CD.

[jenkins.math]

I traded CD and my 2020 1 for DK and stills

I’m a DK believer. I like CD but he’s in a terrible situation and is now competing for bad targets with probably a better wr in aj brown and a slot machine.

Stills is a good flier imo. Very talented and finally has a qb (whoever it is) that won’t suck and I believe make him more consistent.

Wouldn’t be shocked if stills had a better 2019 than CD.

You traded Corey Davis and your 2020 first? Your 2020 first looks like it will be early too. Man I think you gave up the 2 most valuable assets in that trade.

[turkjetfan]

I traded CD and my 2020 1 for DK and stills

I’m a DK believer. I like CD but he’s in a terrible situation and is now competing for bad targets with probably a better wr in aj brown and a slot machine.

Stills is a good flier imo. Very talented and finally has a qb (whoever it is) that won’t suck and I believe make him more consistent.

Wouldn’t be shocked if stills had a better 2019 than CD.

You traded Corey Davis and your 2020 first? Your 2020 first looks like it will be early too. Man I think you gave up the 2 most valuable assets in that trade.

I don’t think CD is going to be or ever has been nearly what people think of him.

I also think DK is going to be a stud.

So I feel I traded a completely overhyped wr in a crap spot now competing for target share, and a future pick for a guy I view as a tremendous asset. If CD had ever produced or wasnt in somehow a worse situation than he was when the season ended I’d of had pause.

Just based on what we’ve seen the titans do, CDs value will be notably different a year from now and I think DKs will be as well.

It was now or never so I did it.

I also have 4 seconds 3/4 will be high. So had some wiggle room.

Future picks are also great but we’ll see. Every year it’s always “not this draft but NEXT draft is gonna be great.”

Give me the guy I love for a guy who didn’t top 50 yards 10/16 weeks with nearly a 30% target share and a future pick any day.

[turkjetfan]

Davis’s market share was 29% last year which is very good and ranks with some of the best. He has had multiple big games. His only issue to date has been a Titans offense not clicking for 2 seasons now. The Titans will be full of tons of fantasy value this season as the majority of fantasy owners have written them off completely despite it being May.

Yep. Davis had 900 yards on an offense that threw for 2975! He had a greater share of his offense’s passing than Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Odell, etc.

People say that he’s not that good because actual good WRs, like Hopkins, put up numbers without a QB, but even the 2016 Osweiler Texans threw for 500 more yeards than last year’s Titans (when Hopkins had 78/954/4).

With Tannehill in the fold, the Titans are a virtual lock to have a 3500 yard passing offense floor, which is terrible, but even that pathetic amount Davis should have no trouble eclipsing 1000 yards. With a bump up to 3800 yards, Davis has a chance to be in the 1100-1200 range.
Sure he doesn’t have top 5 upside on the team as is, but Davis was a back end WR2 in most formats last year and it is virtually impossible for the passing offense to be any worse.

Davis’ talent isn’t really up for debate IMO and acceptable production is not far away at all. He is far and away the best prospect of any WR in this class and is the closest to actually producing.

Why isnt his talent up for debate? Because his market share was high last year? He's a solid WR but not an elite talent and was significantly overdrafted by TEN.

And significantly overvalued by the dynasty community. That 29% target share had him under 50 yards 10/16 games.

Now that target share is absolutely going down, in the same bad situation on a team that wants to pound the ball to begin with.

CD is gross. Prime sell candidate.

[jenkins.math]

I don’t think CD is going to be or ever has been nearly what people think of him.

I also think DK is going to be a stud.

So I feel I traded a completely overhyped wr in a crap spot now competing for target share, and a future pick for a guy I view as a tremendous asset. If CD had ever produced or wasnt in somehow a worse situation than he was when the season ended I’d of had pause.

Just based on what we’ve seen the titans do, CDs value will be notably different a year from now and I think DKs will be as well.

It was now or never so I did it.

I also have 4 seconds 3/4 will be high. So had some wiggle room.

Future picks are also great but we’ll see. Every year it’s always “not this draft but NEXT draft is gonna be great.”

Give me the guy I love for a guy who didn’t top 50 yards 10/16 weeks with nearly a 30% target share and a future pick any day.

You can be down on CD and high on Stills and Metcalf, but you have to understand their value relative to your league. It's chess not checkers in dynasty. Just plugging your trade into the DLF Trade Analyzer gives you an idea of the overall consensus value of the pieces you moved.

Poop on CD's situation, but is Stills really in some vastly superior situation? Both guys are in bottom tier offenses.

I hope it works out for you, but your pick has a great chance of being 1.01 in 2020 and you basically gave it away.

[Cameron Giles]

I traded CD and my 2020 1 for DK and stills

I’m a DK believer. I like CD but he’s in a terrible situation and is now competing for bad targets with probably a better wr in aj brown and a slot machine.

Stills is a good flier imo. Very talented and finally has a qb (whoever it is) that won’t suck and I believe make him more consistent.

Wouldn’t be shocked if stills had a better 2019 than CD.

Davis is a better player than Stills and Metcalf, AND you gave up a first on top of it?

I'm really wondering how many people in this thread have actually watched Davis play. I can't imagine someone watching Davis play and thinking "Man, I really wish he played more like DK Metcalf."

[turkjetfan]

I traded CD and my 2020 1 for DK and stills

I’m a DK believer. I like CD but he’s in a terrible situation and is now competing for bad targets with probably a better wr in aj brown and a slot machine.

Stills is a good flier imo. Very talented and finally has a qb (whoever it is) that won’t suck and I believe make him more consistent.

Wouldn’t be shocked if stills had a better 2019 than CD.

Davis is a better player than Stills and Metcalf, AND you gave up a first on top of it?

I'm really wondering how many people in this thread have actually watched Davis play. I can't imagine someone watching Davis play and thinking "Man, I really wish he played more like DK Metcalf."

There’s this thing called situation relative to talent.

CD talent. Metrics. Zero production and now in an even more crowded situation.

DK strengths match Seattle + oppty


CD is truly the prime example of fantasy nerds dissecting these ancillary metrics to predict future production which never comes.

[turkjetfan]

I don’t think CD is going to be or ever has been nearly what people think of him.

I also think DK is going to be a stud.

So I feel I traded a completely overhyped wr in a crap spot now competing for target share, and a future pick for a guy I view as a tremendous asset. If CD had ever produced or wasnt in somehow a worse situation than he was when the season ended I’d of had pause.

Just based on what we’ve seen the titans do, CDs value will be notably different a year from now and I think DKs will be as well.

It was now or never so I did it.

I also have 4 seconds 3/4 will be high. So had some wiggle room.

Future picks are also great but we’ll see. Every year it’s always “not this draft but NEXT draft is gonna be great.”

Give me the guy I love for a guy who didn’t top 50 yards 10/16 weeks with nearly a 30% target share and a future pick any day.

You can be down on CD and high on Stills and Metcalf, but you have to understand their value relative to your league. It's chess not checkers in dynasty. Just plugging your trade into the DLF Trade Analyzer gives you an idea of the overall consensus value of the pieces you moved.

Poop on CD's situation, but is Stills really in some vastly superior situation? Both guys are in bottom tier offenses.

I hope it works out for you, but your pick has a great chance of being 1.01 in 2020 and you basically gave it away.

We can regroup after this season. If consensus equaled production fantasy would be extremely easy.

[Jason3123]

I traded CD and my 2020 1 for DK and stills

I’m a DK believer. I like CD but he’s in a terrible situation and is now competing for bad targets with probably a better wr in aj brown and a slot machine.

Stills is a good flier imo. Very talented and finally has a qb (whoever it is) that won’t suck and I believe make him more consistent.

Wouldn’t be shocked if stills had a better 2019 than CD.

Davis is a better player than Stills and Metcalf, AND you gave up a first on top of it?

I'm really wondering how many people in this thread have actually watched Davis play. I can't imagine someone watching Davis play and thinking "Man, I really wish he played more like DK Metcalf."

There’s this thing called situation relative to talent.

CD talent. Metrics. Zero production and now in an even more crowded situation.

DK strengths match Seattle + oppty


CD is truly the prime example of fantasy nerds dissecting these ancillary metrics to predict future production which never comes.

Will you please explain how Seattle has opportunity and Tennessee doesn’t? Since you’re not a fantasy nerd and all. I’d love to hear a non-nerds opinion.

[Bot101]

Davis is a better player than Stills and Metcalf, AND you gave up a first on top of it?

I'm really wondering how many people in this thread have actually watched Davis play. I can't imagine someone watching Davis play and thinking "Man, I really wish he played more like DK Metcalf."

There’s this thing called situation relative to talent.

CD talent. Metrics. Zero production and now in an even more crowded situation.

DK strengths match Seattle + oppty


CD is truly the prime example of fantasy nerds dissecting these ancillary metrics to predict future production which never comes.

Will you please explain how Seattle has opportunity and Tennessee doesn’t? Since you’re not a fantasy nerd and all. I’d love to hear a non-nerds opinion.

One offense has one of the best and most efficient QBs throwing the football, the other has a guy who cant read defenses and also cant feel his arm.

[Cameron Giles]

There’s this thing called situation relative to talent.

CD talent. Metrics. Zero production and now in an even more crowded situation.

DK strengths match Seattle + oppty


CD is truly the prime example of fantasy nerds dissecting these ancillary metrics to predict future production which never comes.

Will you please explain how Seattle has opportunity and Tennessee doesn’t? Since you’re not a fantasy nerd and all. I’d love to hear a non-nerds opinion.

One offense has one of the best and most efficient QBs throwing the football, the other has a guy who cant read defenses and also cant feel his arm.

I still don't get this reasoning. Sure, having Wilson instead of Mariota is a notable difference to getting players the ball efficiently and in a larger variety of ways, but a WR still has to do his part to get the ball. They're not going to mask a large amount of flaws. If your preference of WRs simply boils down to who the QB is, then long-term it's an awful strategy.