Dynasty League Football Forum

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:56 pm

Ice wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:59 pm McLaurin is looking study week in and week out. Thinking any college player is worth a hell of lot more is strong opinion but in the end it’s just that.

At this point trading him hoping you land 1.2 wouldn’t be the wisest move.

Not sure many really realize how rare it it is to see a rookie WR produce at this level....

If you own him you could sell him for a high pick at this point but vast majority wouldn’t be selling him unless the offer was an overpay.

His production is amazing no matter how you look at it.

I think McLaurin is playing very well. I don't want to dismiss that at all. I just don't think he's worth the 1.01 or 1.02 in this type of draft. I won't even bother comparing McLaurin to Jerry Jeudy, but I would absolutely trade McLaurin if it meant securing Jonathan Taylor or even Ceedee Lamb.

I guess I could see it if you think he's Michael Thomas, but I don't see that at all.

Its nice to see someone who planted their flag early and stuck with a player not let their bias take over rational thought. For people who own McLaurin I’m not telling you to sell, but players with low BAs, low DRs, and with only average draft capital rarely repeat years like this. There have been exceptions to that rule like Baldwin, Edelman, and Tyreek Hill that have gone on to have multiple top 24 PPR seasons. Most of those players are exceptions tho not the rule and with the case of Edelman and Hill were actually shifted to multiple positions before being drafted.

I recently traded away McLaurin, Fournette, and a 2nd for Adams and Jimmy G. Felt like I was trading away a future Adams type player but hopefully I am wrong. Would have liked to keep him but Adams is a sure bet. Will be interesting to see how he develops.

alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:23 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:56 pm

Ice wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:59 pm McLaurin is looking study week in and week out. Thinking any college player is worth a hell of lot more is strong opinion but in the end it’s just that.

At this point trading him hoping you land 1.2 wouldn’t be the wisest move.

Not sure many really realize how rare it it is to see a rookie WR produce at this level....

If you own him you could sell him for a high pick at this point but vast majority wouldn’t be selling him unless the offer was an overpay.

His production is amazing no matter how you look at it.

I think McLaurin is playing very well. I don't want to dismiss that at all. I just don't think he's worth the 1.01 or 1.02 in this type of draft. I won't even bother comparing McLaurin to Jerry Jeudy, but I would absolutely trade McLaurin if it meant securing Jonathan Taylor or even Ceedee Lamb.

I guess I could see it if you think he's Michael Thomas, but I don't see that at all.

Its nice to see someone who planted their flag early and stuck with a player not let their bias take over rational thought. For people who own McLaurin I’m not telling you to sell, but players with low BAs, low DRs, and with only average draft capital rarely repeat years like this. There have been exceptions to that rule like Baldwin, Edelman, and Tyreek Hill that have gone on to have multiple top 24 PPR seasons. Most of those players are exceptions tho not the rule and with the case of Edelman and Hill were actually shifted to multiple positions before being drafted.

I caution everyone about stats if they don’t look beyond them or at least weigh them against a given college team and their system.

When you analyze players like Odell or McLaurin I would suggest looking beyond a few stats but focus on their improvements over their college career.

I mention these two due to talent around them but we saw steady improvement over time.

McLaurin’s growth in YPR when targeted was outstanding. His route running season over season also drastically improved.

We all forget maturity is very different between individuals. We all know the guy that had to shave twice a day in the 9th grade and the guy didn’t start shaving in college

This kid is the real deal at this level. He went pretty high in the draft and is getting open at will.

Sometimes we fall into the don’t believe your lying eyes category. Other times we must concede our eyes are not lying.

Bird the hand is appropriate with this player. He is a buy not a sell overall.

badbuddah wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:14 pm I recently traded away McLaurin, Fournette, and a 2nd for Adams and Jimmy G. Felt like I was trading away a future Adams type player but hopefully I am wrong. Would have liked to keep him but Adams is a sure bet. Will be interesting to see how he develops.

Love the trade. Adams is as good as McLaurin could hope to be. Happy to pay Fournette and 2nd on top.

jetsfan5757 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:48 am

badbuddah wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:14 pm I recently traded away McLaurin, Fournette, and a 2nd for Adams and Jimmy G. Felt like I was trading away a future Adams type player but hopefully I am wrong. Would have liked to keep him but Adams is a sure bet. Will be interesting to see how he develops.

Love the trade. Adams is as good as McLaurin could hope to be. Happy to pay Fournette and 2nd on top.

Nothing wrong with that trade especially in a SF for a win now team.

Adams is a proven stud with a great QB.

He just went for a 2020 1st in one of my 12 team 1 QB ppr leagues. I always like seeing people buy the players they believe in.

alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:23 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:56 pm

Ice wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:59 pm McLaurin is looking study week in and week out. Thinking any college player is worth a hell of lot more is strong opinion but in the end it’s just that.

At this point trading him hoping you land 1.2 wouldn’t be the wisest move.

Not sure many really realize how rare it it is to see a rookie WR produce at this level....

If you own him you could sell him for a high pick at this point but vast majority wouldn’t be selling him unless the offer was an overpay.

His production is amazing no matter how you look at it.

I think McLaurin is playing very well. I don't want to dismiss that at all. I just don't think he's worth the 1.01 or 1.02 in this type of draft. I won't even bother comparing McLaurin to Jerry Jeudy, but I would absolutely trade McLaurin if it meant securing Jonathan Taylor or even Ceedee Lamb.

I guess I could see it if you think he's Michael Thomas, but I don't see that at all.

Its nice to see someone who planted their flag early and stuck with a player not let their bias take over rational thought. For people who own McLaurin I’m not telling you to sell, but players with low BAs, low DRs, and with only average draft capital rarely repeat years like this. There have been exceptions to that rule like Baldwin, Edelman, and Tyreek Hill that have gone on to have multiple top 24 PPR seasons. Most of those players are exceptions tho not the rule and with the case of Edelman and Hill were actually shifted to multiple positions before being drafted.

this is why I didn't draft him in May. everything else about him is why I've been trying to buy ever since. sometimes guys with prototype size, good hands, + intangibles, + route running, 4.3 speed, minimal competition and multiple film gurus touting him can be that outlier. pretty sure he's a 35-50 player for me already

Ice wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:36 am

alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:23 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:56 pm

I think McLaurin is playing very well. I don't want to dismiss that at all. I just don't think he's worth the 1.01 or 1.02 in this type of draft. I won't even bother comparing McLaurin to Jerry Jeudy, but I would absolutely trade McLaurin if it meant securing Jonathan Taylor or even Ceedee Lamb.

I guess I could see it if you think he's Michael Thomas, but I don't see that at all.

Its nice to see someone who planted their flag early and stuck with a player not let their bias take over rational thought. For people who own McLaurin I’m not telling you to sell, but players with low BAs, low DRs, and with only average draft capital rarely repeat years like this. There have been exceptions to that rule like Baldwin, Edelman, and Tyreek Hill that have gone on to have multiple top 24 PPR seasons. Most of those players are exceptions tho not the rule and with the case of Edelman and Hill were actually shifted to multiple positions before being drafted.

I caution everyone about stats if they don’t look beyond them or at least weigh them against a given college team and their system.

When you analyze players like Odell or McLaurin I would suggest looking beyond a few stats but focus on their improvements over their college career.

I mention these two due to talent around them but we saw steady improvement over time.

McLaurin’s growth in YPR when targeted was outstanding. His route running season over season also drastically improved.

We all forget maturity is very different between individuals. We all know the guy that had to shave twice a day in the 9th grade and the guy didn’t start shaving in college

This kid is the real deal at this level. He went pretty high in the draft and is getting open at will.

Sometimes we fall into the don’t believe your lying eyes category. Other times we must concede our eyes are not lying.

Bird the hand is appropriate with this player. He is a buy not a sell overall.

First of all we definitely shouldn’t be comparing OBJ to McLaurin here because OBJ had an exceptional combine, high draft capital, and both above average BAs and DRs in college despite dealing with what’s usually a pretty shitty LSU offense and Laundry feasting as well. Statistically no comparison.

But like I said I’m just putting the warning out there. I play fantasy according to statistical odds. Even if I think he’s a good looking football player, I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on a guy with maybe a 10-20% chance of repeating the success he’s having. Players have looked very good before just to disappear off the face of the earth. If he hits like a Doug Baldwin then I give you guys a hand for discovering a complete outlier.

Ice wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:36 am

alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:23 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:56 pm

I think McLaurin is playing very well. I don't want to dismiss that at all. I just don't think he's worth the 1.01 or 1.02 in this type of draft. I won't even bother comparing McLaurin to Jerry Jeudy, but I would absolutely trade McLaurin if it meant securing Jonathan Taylor or even Ceedee Lamb.

I guess I could see it if you think he's Michael Thomas, but I don't see that at all.

Its nice to see someone who planted their flag early and stuck with a player not let their bias take over rational thought. For people who own McLaurin I’m not telling you to sell, but players with low BAs, low DRs, and with only average draft capital rarely repeat years like this. There have been exceptions to that rule like Baldwin, Edelman, and Tyreek Hill that have gone on to have multiple top 24 PPR seasons. Most of those players are exceptions tho not the rule and with the case of Edelman and Hill were actually shifted to multiple positions before being drafted.

I caution everyone about stats if they don’t look beyond them or at least weigh them against a given college team and their system.

When you analyze players like Odell or McLaurin I would suggest looking beyond a few stats but focus on their improvements over their college career.

I mention these two due to talent around them but we saw steady improvement over time.

McLaurin’s growth in YPR when targeted was outstanding. His route running season over season also drastically improved.

We all forget maturity is very different between individuals. We all know the guy that had to shave twice a day in the 9th grade and the guy didn’t start shaving in college

This kid is the real deal at this level. He went pretty high in the draft and is getting open at will.

Sometimes we fall into the don’t believe your lying eyes category. Other times we must concede our eyes are not lying.

Bird the hand is appropriate with this player. He is a buy not a sell overall.

I wouldn't say he's getting open at will. He's averaging a little over 4 catches a game. He is making splash plays, though, which is important. His YPC is extremely high and his 5 TD's for a rookie are extremely impressive. He's playing extremely well for a rookie WR. He's also 24 years old, so it's important he comes in and plays well right away. He's a year or two older than most of the other rookie WR's. I think McLaurin is a top 5 pick in this last class as of right now, and depending on price, I agree he's a target to buy. He could also be a sell. It all comes down to what the price is.

Seems Ohio state are putting out some strong wrs lately... I read the news on the kid out of camp and got him in the 3rd round he starts every week now .. he is the 1-02 to me behind on Jacobs

alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:28 pm First of all we definitely shouldn’t be comparing OBJ to McLaurin here because OBJ had an exceptional combine, high draft capital, and both above average BAs and DRs in college despite dealing with what’s usually a pretty shitty LSU offense and Laundry feasting as well. Statistically no comparison.

But like I said I’m just putting the warning out there. I play fantasy according to statistical odds. Even if I think he’s a good looking football player, I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on a guy with maybe a 10-20% chance of repeating the success he’s having. Players have looked very good before just to disappear off the face of the earth. If he hits like a Doug Baldwin then I give you guys a hand for discovering a complete outlier.

First of all The Comparison to Odell was simply looking at improvement of players over the course of the college experience. It shows a weakness in stat models.

Secondly, While I have no issues with anyone playing fantasy football based on stats if they don't have the time or experience to look at actual talent of the players. Sounds like you are using one tool in the tool box to base decisions on which is fine but in the end it's one tool.

Thirdly you can't claim LSU had a bad offense based on their system when they run the ball and had multiple weapons like OSU. That is a pretty lazy argument.

Even if you play stats, once a player enters the league and proves he can play a revaluation looking forward rather than backwards is critical to success in this game IMO.

Since you brought up combine and like stats lets look at few.
Mclaurin
4.35 40 time, 18 reps, 37.5 Vertical, 125 Broad Jump,4.15 20 yards shuttle.
Odell
4.43 40 time, 7 reps, 38.5 Vertical, 122 Broad Jump, 3.94 20 yard shuttle

What is a bit ironic is Cleveland would be similar to LSU this year in production type and efficiency. Washington actually runs a similar system with less overall talent.

This season so far: McLaurin is playing better than Odell and it's not all that close.

McLaurin 5 games : 5 TD's, 4.6 receptions per game
23 Rec, 81.6 yards per game, 17.7 yards per receptions , catch rate 60.5% 2 drops

Odell 6 Games : 1 TD, 4.83 receptions per game
29 receptions, 72.7 yards per game, 15 Yards per reception, catch rate 53.7% 3 drops

Obviously, at this level McLaurin can't be compared to Odell in start up dynasty draft capital but with each passing week the the reasons against this player are well......becoming pretty weak.

Mclaurin is proving to be very good; His increases in college, his exceptional combine, and his production to date is outstanding. Dude already has a NFL record.

The point was and is, when looking at stats it's just an overall metric and if one doesn't look at the player, system, talent around the player in college and most importantly how that talent translates you will miss on these types of players.

McLaurin is not the type of player you sell first but the type of player you should be buying. In my leagues he was going late 2nd, early 3rd, which looking back was a mistake.

Add more research in player evaluations would be my recommendation.

He went undrafted in my 14 team PPR RSO league. Salary cap is something like $177 million and I got him for the league minimum $500k a year for 3 years in the free agent draft right after! Best bargain in my fantasy career.

I sold MG3, Kirk, and Mclaurin for Keenan Allen and a mid 2020 1st a week ago, and I don't regret it.

Ice wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:52 am

jetsfan5757 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:48 am

badbuddah wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:14 pm I recently traded away McLaurin, Fournette, and a 2nd for Adams and Jimmy G. Felt like I was trading away a future Adams type player but hopefully I am wrong. Would have liked to keep him but Adams is a sure bet. Will be interesting to see how he develops.

Love the trade. Adams is as good as McLaurin could hope to be. Happy to pay Fournette and 2nd on top.

Nothing wrong with that trade especially in a SF for a win now team.

Adams is a proven stud with a great QB.

Are we just going to ignore that Fournette is pulling a 90+ % opportunity share, on an improving offense, and is running a ton of passing routes?

Hes a full blown 3 down back on an ascending offense...

Adams is a true stud, but I believe you undervalued fournette quite a bit in this deal

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:49 pm

Ice wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:52 am

jetsfan5757 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:48 am

Love the trade. Adams is as good as McLaurin could hope to be. Happy to pay Fournette and 2nd on top.

Nothing wrong with that trade especially in a SF for a win now team.

Adams is a proven stud with a great QB.

Are we just going to ignore that Fournette is pulling a 90+ % opportunity share, on an improving offense, and is running a ton of passing routes?

Hes a full blown 3 down back on an ascending offense...

Adams is a true stud, but I believe you undervalued fournette quite a bit in this deal

Fournette finally looks like the guy he did at LSU,without people hitting him behind the LOS all the time. However the way he runs combined with his chronic injuries leave me doubting his longevity. I really hope I'm wrong. Watching him this year is so fun. That 80 plus yard run vs Denver. If you haven't seen it, please watch it, everyone. It's speed, spatial awareness and straight up bullying.