Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Cameron Giles]

Now i'm torn between miles sanders and marquise brown at 1.4

Would your REALLY use the 1.04 pick on a wr that weighs 166lbs? Heck, if he was 176lb I'd still be concerned. I remember lots of folks banging the drum for Tavon Austin. He was fast, electric, multi talented, dynamic, a game changer etc.... That didn't work out so hot. I like that he runs good routes and is smart, and can catch. If he didn't or couldn't; he wouldnt have been able to play at the NCAA level. The NFL is a different beast though. At 166 lbs. He will be hurt / injured often. WAY too often to spend a 1.04. I'd consider him in the mid 2nd. Any early - I'm not interested. I have some limits and 166lbs is just too light for my comfort levels. I'll let someone else draft him and deal with the potential upside AND the potential wasted pick. I can live with that just fine.
166 lbs.... No way.

This is why game study is an important aspect of rookie drafts. Austin was fed a high volume of manufactured touches and was not an advanced or even good route runner. Austin didn't fail because of size; he failed because he never got better.

Weight isn't a permanent stat. You really shouldn't base your criticism of a player around it, especially when players are winning in the NFL at 175-185 pounds. A 185 lb RB just ran for 1000 yards. What's more important is if he can play WR...and he's really, really good at playing WR. It's not hard to gain weight, but it's hard to teach players how to run routes and get open like that.

[killer_of_giants]

It's not hard to gain weight

a dozen bargain buckets a day and he'll be fine!

[CK_]

The weight argument confuses me... that shouldn’t matter nearly as much as it did 10 years ago.

Does he check boxes that actually apply to the NFL? Such as but not limited to:

+Vision
Crisp and fluid routes with a somewhat extensive route tree
+Hands - doesn’t matter how skilled and electric you are, if you have bricks for hands then you may not be able to compete
Does he have a extensive injury history not including “freak” injuries?

I’m sure there are others but does the kid check those boxes? Seems like he could be good value. To limit a player based solely on a prototypical size and weight doesn’t really have the same flavor as it did previously.

[Cowboysfan33]

Great write up. I noticed M.Brown is 16th overall in DLFs rookie ADP and I know it’s subjective since we don’t know where he will be drafted but where do you guys think his ADP will end up, after the NFL draft? There’s probably little chance his ADP stays in the 2nd round, right?

[Friction]

I would for sure take him by the late first, landing spot will determine how much towards the middle he gets.

[Phaded]

Great write up. I noticed M.Brown is 16th overall in DLFs rookie ADP and I know it’s subjective since we don’t know where he will be drafted but where do you guys think his ADP will end up, after the NFL draft? There’s probably little chance his ADP stays in the 2nd round, right?

Seeing as he is being touted as a day one pick or early day two; highly doubt it stays in the second round.

[ninotoreS]

I'll preface by saying I have not dug into M. Brown's tape yet. So my opinion of him is obviously incomplete.

Here are my concerns with Marquise:

- It's not just that he's short, or lightweight even for his height, or has short arms, it's that he's all three that worries me.

- There's the notion that he can add weight. My worry there is that Brown has already added over 30lbs of weight since he was 18. I'm not a "body expert" that can look at his physique and make the judgment, but I have to wonder if Marquise actually has the frame to add more healthy weight. Maybe at 165lbs he's already at his body's upper threshold.

- His breakout age and dominator rating percentiles are not impressive.

The weight argument confuses me... that shouldn’t matter nearly as much as it did 10 years ago.

It definitely matters. Play-strength isn't less important than it was a decade ago.

And it's not as if we have other 165lbs stud WRs in the modern era to look at as precedents, and thus make M. Brown's prospects seem safer.

[Cowboysfan33]

[quote=Cowboysfan33 post_id=<a href="tel:1648583">1648583</a> time=<a href="tel:1554495653">1554495653</a> user_id=26068]
Great write up. I noticed M.Brown is 16th overall in DLFs rookie ADP and I know it’s subjective since we don’t know where he will be drafted but where do you guys think his ADP will end up, after the NFL draft? There’s probably little chance his ADP stays in the 2nd round, right?

Seeing as he is being touted as a day one pick or early day two; highly doubt it stays in the second round.



[/quote]

I would for sure take him by the late first, landing spot will determine how much towards the middle he gets.




Thanks guys. That’s kinda what I was thinking, probably mid-late 1st. Like I said, I know it’s subjective because if he were to be drafted by the Packers or Chiefs, his stock would soar.

[whodunnit]

It's not hard to gain weight

It's actually quite a bit harder than you'd think. Especially for a smaller frame guy. I'd be surprised if he could even get to 180; but then again I wouldn't let his weight deter me from drafting him. I'd just wait until the 2nd or I'd pass on him.

[Cameron Giles]

I'll preface by saying I have not dug into M. Brown's tape yet. So my opinion of him is obviously incomplete.

Here are my concerns with Marquise:

- It's not just that he's short, or lightweight even for his height, or has short arms, it's that he's all three that worries me.

- There's the notion that he can add weight. My worry there is that Brown has already added over 30lbs of weight since he was 18. I'm not a "body expert" that can look at his physique and make the judgment, but I have to wonder if Marquise actually has the frame to add more healthy weight. Maybe at 165lbs he's already at his body's upper threshold.

- His breakout age and dominator rating percentiles are not impressive.

Keep in mind that Brown transferred from a JC and started his first D1 season at age 20. So, his breakout age being at 21.3 isn't particularly meaningful one way or the other because he was never going to have the 18-19 breakout age that people look for in advanced stats.

Brown has been injured since Oklahoma's first playoff game. He opted for surgery after they lost to Alabama. So, any opportunity to gain weight wasn't present.

It definitely matters. Play-strength isn't less important than it was a decade ago.

And it's not as if we have other 165lbs stud WRs in the modern era to look at as precedents, and thus make M. Brown's prospects seem safer.

Brown's play strength is respectable. I wouldn't judge it on the billed weight. But, we're seeing more and more WR's in the 175-185 range find success in the NFL. The rules and style the league shifted to has pretty much allowed smaller and lighter players to be successful.

If there's not a high volume of precedence, then it's not safe, nor is it risky.

[Cameron Giles]

It's actually quite a bit harder than you'd think. Especially for a smaller frame guy. I'd be surprised if he could even get to 180; but then again I wouldn't let his weight deter me from drafting him. I'd just wait until the 2nd or I'd pass on him.

It's really not. Professional football, baseball and basketball players all put on weight pretty easily. Professional leagues give players access to some of the best strength and conditioning programs available.

Billed weight isn't something that's static, it's why I don't understand using it for formulas and whatever to predict likelihoods. Players often play lighter or heavier than what's listed. Antonio Brown is listed at 180. Nobody would be shocked if he plays at 175 during the season.

This is a great opportunity to draft a WR who understands the finer and more detailed aspects of winning at that position. You can draft that type of player below players who do not show anything close to that and who people are hoping one day will. It's completely backwards. Unless Brown's medical tanks, he's a Day 1 or early Day 2 pick and the best route runner and playmaker in this class.

[whodunnit]

It's actually quite a bit harder than you'd think. Especially for a smaller frame guy. I'd be surprised if he could even get to 180; but then again I wouldn't let his weight deter me from drafting him. I'd just wait until the 2nd or I'd pass on him.

It's really not. Professional football, baseball and basketball players all put on weight pretty easily. Professional leagues give players access to some of the best strength and conditioning programs available.

Billed weight isn't something that's static, it's why I don't understand using it for formulas and whatever to predict likelihoods. Players often play lighter or heavier than what's listed. Antonio Brown is listed at 180. Nobody would be shocked if he plays at 175 during the season.

As mentioned he likely isn't even really 166, it's highly unlikely that he could put on 15-20 more pounds on that small frame. There's nothing wrong with that, just that not everyone can put on (good) weight that easily. Unless he turns to PED's it would likely take him about 3 years to get to a playing weight of 175. If he could add weight *easily* he likely would have added most his weight in college. You don't add 15-20 pounds of muscle in a summer, unless you've never touched a weight before.

[Ice]

I find it pretty comical so many are concerned about his weight. He will easily get to the 180 range. He put on 30 lbs in college and is very well built.

The rules today are vastly different. Do people really think a 185 DB that can't even touch him after 5 yards is that big of a risk. Now days with the rules against targeting players, helmet to helmet, defenseless player hits, it is pretty obvious the days of Night Train Lane left the NFL long ago.

M. Brown
21
5'10"
170

His cousin ( The best in the Game )
30
5'10"
186
837 receptions, 11,207 yards, 74 TD's

[Cameron Giles]

As mentioned he likely isn't even really 166, it's highly unlikely that he could put on 15-20 more pounds on that small frame. There's nothing wrong with that, just that not everyone can put on (good) weight that easily. Unless he turns to PED's it would likely take him about 3 years to get to a playing weight of 175. If he could add weight *easily* he likely would have added most his weight in college. You don't add 15-20 pounds of muscle in a summer, unless you've never touched a weight before.

You deleted it, but there's obviously a huge difference between a 5'5 RB running into a pack of offensive and defensive linemen 20+ times a game and a WR lining up and beating DB's. There's a reason WR's play longer than RB's.

I never said that Brown was going to add 15-20 pounds of pure muscle. You don't do that without PED's. I do believe that he or any other player could add lean weight over time with the NFL's training regiments. It's not unheard of to do so.

Once you start focusing on a prospect for all the reasons that nothing to do with how well he plays the position, you're likely overlooking a talent:

- There's no high volume of precedence for players of Brown's size to not succeed in the NFL, especially when you factor in how good he was in college.
- LisFranc injuries may, or may not alter your production.

So, two things that may or may not happen versus a clearly skilled WR.

[whodunnit]

As mentioned he likely isn't even really 166, it's highly unlikely that he could put on 15-20 more pounds on that small frame. There's nothing wrong with that, just that not everyone can put on (good) weight that easily. Unless he turns to PED's it would likely take him about 3 years to get to a playing weight of 175. If he could add weight *easily* he likely would have added most his weight in college. You don't add 15-20 pounds of muscle in a summer, unless you've never touched a weight before.

You deleted it, but there's obviously a huge difference between a 5'5 RB running into a pack of offensive and defensive linemen 20+ times a game and a WR lining up and beating DB's. There's a reason WR's play longer than RB's.

I never said that Brown was going to add 15-20 pounds of pure muscle. You don't do that without PED's. I do believe that he or any other player could add lean weight over time with the NFL's training regiments. It's not unheard of to do so.

Once you start focusing on a prospect for all the reasons that nothing to do with how well he plays the position, you're likely overlooking a talent:

- There's no high volume of precedence for players of Brown's size to not succeed in the NFL.
- LisFranc injuries may, or may not alter your production.

So, two things that may or may not happen versus a clearly skilled WR.

so is he adding 15-20 pounds of skin or fat? or water weight? lean weight is muscle mass... but as I mentioned, I'm not concerned about his weight anyway, I just don't think he can get 180. Just my opinion is all.