DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

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Cameron Giles
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:39 am

Patsfan86 wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:25 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:15 am I've stopped using "QB-proof" because it's pretty clear a QB does exist that can absolutely plummet fantasy production for every WR. And I'm not even specifically talking a Geno Smith-level one.

You can't say that "there will be a drop-off" and then say "he's QB proof" too. It literally goes against that.
Maybe i should have added more nuance, i dont think there will be much of a drop off. I dont think we are talking about Hopkins and Brock Osweiler kind of drop off. I think we are talking about maybe a 2 td 100 yard drop off. And again a lesser Qb may just lock onto Metcalf and we could foreseeably see a Michael Thomas 2019 type of year out of DK. No not record breaking catches but yardage and Tds maybe Yes Drew Brees is a hall of famer but i think we can agree that in 2019 he was not a special Qb anymore. Lesser Qbs dont spread the ball around they dont have the ability to. With that said Geno Smith is one of the worst ive ever seen so he is not in this discussion, he is Brock Osweiler type bad so DK is not gonna be very good as long as he plays, but even an Ok qb is still gonna make DK a WR1. I still think his best year is ahead of him.
If they trade Wilson, they wouldn't be a FA/Trade destination for someone like Carr, Watson, or Rodgers; so you'd have to think they're in for a rookie QB or some type of transition/bridge QB. That's a significant downgrade from a player who ranks highly in most QB stats of accuracy. I don't think that difference is -100 yards on the season, which essentially is not a difference at all. That's subtracting 6 yards/gm from a player.

You mentioned 2019 Brees and he was still a very above-average QB.

Like I said earlier, volume rules, but there also comes a time where quality of target matters. Getting peppered with 12 low quality targets from a mediocre QB isn't something I'd want over 8 quality targets from a good QB. We're talking more uncatchable passes, worse passes into tight windows, worse deep ball accuracy, less extended plays, etc.

We'll see how it unfolds, but generally I think you're underselling the impact Russell Wilson leaving a team would have. I just don't believe there's such thing as QB-proof.

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Shoreline Steamers
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:47 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:39 am Like I said earlier, volume rules, but there also comes a time where quality of target matters. Getting peppered with 12 low quality targets from a mediocre QB isn't something I'd want over 8 quality targets from a good QB. We're talking more uncatchable passes, worse passes into tight windows, worse deep ball accuracy, less extended plays, etc.
I agree.

We're seeing this now in Seattle IMO. Geno's ball placement has been largely terrible. WR's having to go to the ground to make a catch with no chance at YAC. Balls thrown behind WR's forcing them to adjust, etc. It's why Geno is a backup QB at best, and will never start for an NFL team aside from injury.

The two best throws Geno has made in the last two games were the left sideline pass to Everett in the 2nd half against the Steelers. Went for about 30-ish yards if I recall correctly. And the throw to DK against the Saints on Monday where the CB fell down, allowing him to race for the TD. Other than that, he's been terrible.

I'm not sure how this will play out in 2022, but either Russ or Pete won't be with the organization. Hate to say it, because he does create a good culture, but I'd rather lose Pete than Russ. Franchise QB's are just too difficult to find, and Russ is a potential HOF'er.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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ArrylT
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby ArrylT » Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:46 pm

NFL Research: DK Metcalf had two receiving TDs in Week 8 and now has 25 in 40 career games. Metcalf is the fifth WR in the Super Bowl era with 2,500-plus receiving yards and 25-plus receiving TDs in his first 40 games (Others: HOF Jerry Rice, HOF Randy Moss, NYG Odell Beckham Jr. and SD John Jefferson*).



* - 3 1000 yard seasons with 10+ TDs
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:37 am

The guy is just a monster, he isnt being used on the deep ball this season but thats totally fine if you are using him in the redzone. This is an absolutely elite WR with traits unlike others who is getting better at everything. Yes Wilson leaving will be a problem but it simply wont knock him out of having the ceiling of being THE WR1. Chase is taking over the hype train due to shiny new toy syndrome but DK is just as valuable

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murphysxm
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby murphysxm » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:55 am

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:47 am And the throw to DK against the Saints on Monday where the CB (was pushed to the ground on a missed PI call and) fell down, allowing him to race for the TD.
fixed this for you
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:59 am

Not sure he's WR1, but he's in the mix. I'd sure as hell be happy to have any of that young tier:

Chase, AJB, JJ, DK, Lamb
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco Stidham
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Sutton, Downs, Mims, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Goedert, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.06

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murphysxm
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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby murphysxm » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:00 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:59 am Not sure he's WR1, but he's in the mix. I'd sure as hell be happy to have any of that young tier:

Chase, AJB, JJ, DK, Lamb
Is Lamb still in this group? I thought he was overhyped coming into the year and has not looked the part.
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby CGW » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:40 am

murphysxm wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:00 am
Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:59 am Not sure he's WR1, but he's in the mix. I'd sure as hell be happy to have any of that young tier:

Chase, AJB, JJ, DK, Lamb
Is Lamb still in this group? I thought he was overhyped coming into the year and has not looked the part.
Sarcasm? I mean Lamb is averaging 18ppg in PPR, and currently sitting at WR14 despite 9 of the 13 ahead of him haven't had a BYE yet. He's outscored both AJB and JJ so far. He's still in the conversation, just not at the front of it. Hard to go wrong with any of them.

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Re: DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

Postby Ice » Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:38 am

CGW wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:40 am
murphysxm wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:00 am
Orenthal Shames wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:59 am Not sure he's WR1, but he's in the mix. I'd sure as hell be happy to have any of that young tier:

Chase, AJB, JJ, DK, Lamb
Is Lamb still in this group? I thought he was overhyped coming into the year and has not looked the part.
Sarcasm? I mean Lamb is averaging 18ppg in PPR, and currently sitting at WR14 despite 9 of the 13 ahead of him haven't had a BYE yet. He's outscored both AJB and JJ so far. He's still in the conversation, just not at the front of it. Hard to go wrong with any of them.
Must be.

He also has Cooper on the other side and both are top 16 YTD regardless of the bye week. Both of these WR's should blow by 1000 yards this season. Lamb already has 609 yards receiving and both Lamb and Cooper are averaging more than Justin Jefferson in points per game played this season.
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