Todd Gurley to bust in 2019?

[dynastyninja]

Coaches openly saying "we need to manage his workload better next year"? Check.

Two OL gone, another one old as hell? Check.

History of knee problems? Check.

Offense depantsed for all to see? Check.

I'm taking Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, CMC, Chubb, and Conner ahead of him. Just not worth the risk when you have can't-miss studs around him. Good luck to anyone who takes the plunge, I hope the gamble pays off.

I love how you threw Conner in there casually like he should be included in that group. I'm guessing you own him?

[Lord_Varys]

Coaches openly saying "we need to manage his workload better next year"? Check.

Two OL gone, another one old as hell? Check.

History of knee problems? Check.

Offense depantsed for all to see? Check.

I'm taking Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, CMC, Chubb, and Conner ahead of him. Just not worth the risk when you have can't-miss studs around him. Good luck to anyone who takes the plunge, I hope the gamble pays off.

I love how you threw Conner in there casually like he should be included in that group. I'm guessing you own him?

I don't, unfortunately. But last I checked Pittsburgh's starting RB was a high end RB1.

I guess if we're talking dynasty startup drafting, maybe he'd not be in that group.

[ArrylT]

I would concur that there is a possibility that James Conner (if healthy for 16 games) could conceivably produce as much or more than Todd Gurley this year, but still remain less valuable from a longer-term perspective.

[FantasyFreak]

Gurley expected to be ready for OTA's. That's very good news for Gurley owners.

[Conan Troutman]

Gurley expected to be ready for OTA's. That's very good news for Gurley owners.

Not sure how arthritis would prevent him from OTAs - his knee could react when under a heavy workload, but skipping OTAs doesn't have any influence on his knee once the season starts. So while not bad news, it's not really great news either.

If it's indeed some form of arthritis, I'd expect the Rams to manage his workload, especially late in the season when the fantasy playoffs come around. Another problem is that the Rams are due for regression offensively, as pointed out above the first cap casualties are happening and it's only going to get worse once Goff's contract is up. Then there's the fact the the league had to catch up with McVay's scheme at some point, which could drop them from a top 3 offense to merely top 10.

[hockeyBjj]

So with CJ Anderson to the Lions, who then is the current Gurley handcuff?

[Pac_Eddy]

So with CJ Anderson to the Lions, who then is the current Gurley handcuff?

Malcolm Brown is the clear number two. I don't think he's a must have handcuff though. I don't see him being Damien Williams when Kareem Hut was released.

[Orenthal Shames]

So with CJ Anderson to the Lions, who then is the current Gurley handcuff?

Malcolm Brown is the clear number two. I don't think he's a must have handcuff though. I don't see him being Damien Williams when Kareem Hut was released.

Disagree on not being a must own, unless it's a really shallow league. Brown was solid spelling Gurley before his own injury last year. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 10.4 yards per reception. CJA and Damien Williams showed the potential upside that running behind a top line on an elite offense can offer.

[Phaded]

Not to mention they matched an offer sheet to keep Brown rather than letting him go..

Not your typical depth guy.

[ArrylT]

Malcolm Brown did get more guaranteed money, and a heavier cap hit, thanks to that offer sheet than Damien Williams did inspite of Williams extension.

[FantasyFreak]

Gurley expected to be ready for OTA's. That's very good news for Gurley owners.

Not sure how arthritis would prevent him from OTAs - his knee could react when under a heavy workload, but skipping OTAs doesn't have any influence on his knee once the season starts. So while not bad news, it's not really great news either.

If it's indeed some form of arthritis, I'd expect the Rams to manage his workload, especially late in the season when the fantasy playoffs come around. Another problem is that the Rams are due for regression offensively, as pointed out above the first cap casualties are happening and it's only going to get worse once Goff's contract is up. Then there's the fact the the league had to catch up with McVay's scheme at some point, which could drop them from a top 3 offense to merely top 10.

Pretty sure you're not a doctor, nor am I. Don't see any argument against this statement not being good news for Gurley owners in the wake of the previous few months.

2nd part in bold: Glad you recognize 1 tweet from a guy with an anonymous source does not constitute proof of the condition. Gurley may have arthritis, but there is no proof of it whatsoever. He certainly had a knee issue in the latter half of the year, but nobody knows what it was, and comments by the Rams owner actually suggested it might not be arthritis. Regardless, him being ready to go for OTA's has to be construed as good news at this point, considering all the speculation and concern, IMO.

[Conan Troutman]

Pretty sure you're not a doctor, nor am I. Don't see any argument against this statement not being good news for Gurley owners in the wake of the previous few months.

2nd part in bold: Glad you recognize 1 tweet from a guy with an anonymous source does not constitute proof of the condition. Gurley may have arthritis, but there is no proof of it whatsoever. He certainly had a knee issue in the latter half of the year, but nobody knows what it was, and comments by the Rams owner actually suggested it might not be arthritis. Regardless, him being ready to go for OTA's has to be construed as good news at this point, considering all the speculation and concern, IMO.

No I'm not a doctor. But I can read and what I've read says that arthritis is a condition where the symptoms commonly show when the joints are under heavy stress. Since Gurley hopefully rested his knee in the offseason, if he still had pain in the knee or if it's swollen, that would be almost carreer endingly bad. If he had a major surgery (including microfracture) that also would've been bad.
Of course the knee is fine now and it may be for the entire season or possibly longer, but him being fine for OTAs only tells us that we can rule out the very worst case scenarios. That in itself is good news, granted, but that's the only real news.


We don't have proof, no. But there is chatter and clearly there was something or he either would've handled a larger workload in the SB or shown up on the injury report. Another clue is his reported unwillingness to let anyone examine his knee at the combine because he already knew since high school that he would have some sort of long term issue. Maybe it's not arthritis, but clearly his knee can't be good after all those injuries, so he's got to have something, whatever it's called.

[Jfever]

I would concur that there is a possibility that James Conner (if healthy for 16 games) could conceivably produce as much or more than Todd Gurley this year, but still remain less valuable from a longer-term perspective.

If healthy, My money is on Conner out scoring Gurley in fantasy points next year. Beyond that - too far out for rb projections. It's that simple. For those that minimize Conner's performance - shame on you. production is production.

[FantasyFootballShow]

I haven't chimed in on this one yet but will now. Smitty and I are on opposite sides of this discussion as I don't think Gurley will bust in '19 unless he goes down with a catastrophic joint injury which could happen to any back. I've dislocated my left knee three times (broke it once as part of the third dislocation) and did my right knee once ... all before the age of 23. To say I have major osteoarthritis in my left knee would be a minor understatement and I WILL have a knee replacement in the coming years. Even my "good" knee is fading because it's doing more work due to me favoring my left knee.

There are MANY ways to deal with arthritis in knees and arguably, most backs in the NFL are dealing with some level of arthritis currently and will most certainly later in life, ESPECIALLY following catastrophic injury which involves joint stability. But arthritis can be managed effectively once it is diagnosed ... but it's more problematic IF it is mismanaged and it's allowed to flare. This appears to be what happened with Gurley and they essentially shut him down rather than risk further damage, inflamation and potential tendinitis in either the affected knee or the supporting one.

There is only one older back that I can recall not suffering from arthritis and I recall after that back suffered an ACL injury, the renowned Dr. Andrews stated "his knee looks like a newborn baby's" free of wear and tear. That player: Adrian Peterson. In fact, because of that report, I acquired him in a few leagues. And he's still going!

But for Gurley ... will he bust? I don't think he will. Will he put up another season like he has? I don't think he will. And that's fine by me. Expect to see a lessened load but I think he's still good for 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns. I could see his load lightened in between the 20s but he's too physical and too versatile in the passing game to keep off the field in the red zone. There's been no reports of his arthritis being debilitating or overly limiting. Again, it can be managed.

He's still an RB1 in my book and that won't change until I see something to prove otherwise

I respect the take, no one knows for sure this early on... I admit that. But, I won't spend anything close to a first-round pick on Gurley, something he is still commanding, which is just flat-out head scratching to me. I produce a video at least once a week on this, but I get both sides. I do feel that this will only get worse. The TMZ video may or may not be evidence that he is struggling with the knee, some call it a natural limp he was sporting, others a limp from injury... you be the judge. But, I will continue to scream from the rooftops for all to avoid Gurley in 2019... I'll scream as loud as I can. Thanks for the great debate on this topic, all.

[Ice]

Gurley is a sell or hold best case.

The Rams were not very forthcoming regarding Gurley and it was obvious he had issues. Arthritis at his age isn't a big deal but bone on bone would be. The news really isn't clear so in the fantasy world his risk factor goes up exponentially.

Regardless of an owners viewpoint, his situation is not clear so trading for asset with unknowns is too much risk given the asking price.

I think he will be fine is my guess but not a chance I am buying today.