Russell Wilson Discussion Thread - Split with Seahawks?

[kmbryant09]

Not sure his calculations on dead-cap are accurate. I'm 90+% sure his total dead cap would be like $110M, so even if it's "just" $39M in 2023, they would be looking at $70M in dead cap in 2024.

Which means you absolutely can't build a competitive roster until 2025 with that much dead cap space. Would make way more sense to ride out Russ for 1-2 more years and at least pray for a revival, before hitting the reset in 2025 with a much cleaner cap sheet.

[FantasyFreak]

Not sure his calculations on dead-cap are accurate. I'm 90+% sure his total dead cap would be like $110M, so even if it's "just" $39M in 2023, they would be looking at $70M in dead cap in 2024.

Which means you absolutely can't build a competitive roster until 2025 with that much dead cap space. Would make way more sense to ride out Russ for 1-2 more years and at least pray for a revival, before hitting the reset in 2025 with a much cleaner cap sheet.

They are on the hook for a few years, regardless of what they do. That Segars guy was pointing out that they could still get rid of Wilson and be a contender, eating his dead cap hit, from what I gathered, pointing out the amount of cap hit the Browns are taking. I don't really agree with him, that they can get another QB and basically pay both the new QB and Wilson, and still contend.

[Pullo Vision]

So, @Zach_Segars has a tweet thread breaking down how Denver can get out of Wilson's contract this offseason. Would require declaring him a post June 1st cut along with a series of cuts and restructures, but mathematically possible. One has already been done and others (like a Patrick cut/restructure) make a ton of sense.

It's interesting to think about, but Denver has to give it another try. You don't give up all of that for Wilson (assets and money) to end it after 1 season with a bad coaching hire.

I don't think this is a situation that can't be fixed....yet.

Yep, I agree. If he were simply a FA signing, it'd be different, but giving those picks tips the scales. Sunk cost at its finest.

Does suggest that cutting him 2024 or later will be easier than commonly depicted.

[Jigga94]

Not sure his calculations on dead-cap are accurate. I'm 90+% sure his total dead cap would be like $110M, so even if it's "just" $39M in 2023, they would be looking at $70M in dead cap in 2024.

Which means you absolutely can't build a competitive roster until 2025 with that much dead cap space. Would make way more sense to ride out Russ for 1-2 more years and at least pray for a revival, before hitting the reset in 2025 with a much cleaner cap sheet.

This is how I see it too. And even then, 2025 they only save like 5M in cap space by cutting him and still have to eat 50M. For a 37 year old QB.

I'd think there would be a restructure of sorts but I'm not certain

[FantasyFreak]

Not sure his calculations on dead-cap are accurate. I'm 90+% sure his total dead cap would be like $110M, so even if it's "just" $39M in 2023, they would be looking at $70M in dead cap in 2024.

Which means you absolutely can't build a competitive roster until 2025 with that much dead cap space. Would make way more sense to ride out Russ for 1-2 more years and at least pray for a revival, before hitting the reset in 2025 with a much cleaner cap sheet.

This is how I see it too. And even then, 2025 they only save like 5M in cap space by cutting him and still have to eat 50M. For a 37 year old QB.

I'd think there would be a restructure of sorts but I'm not certain

People can pretend to be smart anyway they slice it, the reality is......the Broncos made perhaps the worst trade in NFL history, and the only real question is, how many years it will affect them for, 3 being the absolute minimum, and that's not even realistic, considering the draft capital AND players they gave up, on top of salary/guaranteed money.

This is a 2 team division right now, unless my Raiders somehow find a miracle, and realistically, the Chargers are a WC team.

The Broncos are screwed for many years from this deal, that's really not an arguable point right now....unless the argument is Nathaniel Hackett somehow is so dumb OR so smart that he managed to destroy the hopes and dreams of so many....for years.... because he was so stupid, OR he was hired to mastermind the implosion of the Broncos as a contender for the next few years....so he was a genius hired by AFC West teams to implode this team....that or Russ is a QB who had an elite D and elite mobility and made his mark outside of structure, and can't anymore, and guess what, this is going to get worse, in terms of mobility. Russ isn't EVER going to be "elite", or close to it, again....if he ever was. Don't be naive.

He's done, and fading fast. Matty Ice looked bad, man, Russ looked AS bad, and has waaay more movement, still. There are a lot of people in denial about his skill set, but if he hits QB1 numbers again, ever, consider it a win.

He's dust and the Broncos are not able to do much around him, because of the money he's being paid. That franchise is a mess, get out, trade him away, convince some schlep it was all Hackett.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Kind of interesting to ponder what Denver must be thinking with news of Wilson's impending release.

Those dead cap hits for the next 3 years are going to make it difficult for the team to add in free agency, or give out extensions to any players they might want to keep around. I know some will say cap gymnastics can fix anything, but look at the mess New Orleans is in. Sometimes, the bills come due and there's not a lot you can do about it.

I'd imagine Sean Payton won't be around after 2026 if he lasts that long. The Broncos likely won't be competing with the Chiefs in the NFC West anytime soon.

[remedy29]

Kind of interesting to ponder what Denver must be thinking with news of Wilson's impending release.

Those dead cap hits for the next 3 years are going to make it difficult for the team to add in free agency, or give out extensions to any players they might want to keep around. I know some will say cap gymnastics can fix anything, but look at the mess New Orleans is in. Sometimes, the bills come due and there's not a lot you can do about it.

I'd imagine Sean Payton won't be around after 2026 if he lasts that long. The Broncos likely won't be competing with the Chiefs in the NFC West anytime soon.

Is it 3 years or 2 years he counts on Denver's cap?

PFT has it as $35.4 million cap charge this year, $53.6 million next year
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... -next-year

That basically forces Denver to develop a rookie QB the next two years. They can absorb the cap hit by not having to pay a QB. Perhaps their record will improve over the last two years too ,while paying Russell Wilson, in the process.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Kind of interesting to ponder what Denver must be thinking with news of Wilson's impending release.

Those dead cap hits for the next 3 years are going to make it difficult for the team to add in free agency, or give out extensions to any players they might want to keep around. I know some will say cap gymnastics can fix anything, but look at the mess New Orleans is in. Sometimes, the bills come due and there's not a lot you can do about it.

I'd imagine Sean Payton won't be around after 2026 if he lasts that long. The Broncos likely won't be competing with the Chiefs in the NFC West anytime soon.

Is it 3 years or 2 years he counts on Denver's cap?

PFT has it as $35.4 million cap charge this year, $53.6 million next year
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... -next-year

That basically forces Denver to develop a rookie QB the next two years. They can absorb the cap hit by not having to pay a QB. Perhaps their record will improve over the last two years too ,while paying Russell Wilson, in the process.

My bad, they can get out from under the cap hits after 2025. $34.5 million in 2024 and $49.6 in 2025.

Also, I guess if Wilson wanted to play nice, The contract he signs with his next team could offset the hit to the Broncos in 2024. So if he signed a $15 million one year deal for example, the Bronco's cap issue drops to $19.5 million for this season.

It would be much more fun for him to play for the veteran minimum in 2024 though, since Denver has to pay him his salary no matter what. So he'd still earn his $34.5 mil, and stick it to the Broncos at the same time. Probably what I'd do if I were him.

As for the bolded, I guess it's possible the team improves. But they've got more issues than just the QB to figure out, and substantially less money to do it with.

[frerichs5]

It would be much more fun for him to play for the veteran minimum in 2024 though, since Denver has to pay him his salary no matter what. So he'd still earn his $34.5 mil, and stick it to the Broncos at the same time. Probably what I'd do if I were him.

This is exactly what the reports I’ve read think he will do. He’s still making a lot of money and whatever team he ends up with has little cap hit and more flexibility.

[Shoreline Steamers]

It would be much more fun for him to play for the veteran minimum in 2024 though, since Denver has to pay him his salary no matter what. So he'd still earn his $34.5 mil, and stick it to the Broncos at the same time. Probably what I'd do if I were him.

This is exactly what the reports I’ve read think he will do. He’s still making a lot of money and whatever team he ends up with has little cap hit and more flexibility.

And then, what if he actually had a good season, and his new team looks better than the Broncos. Or maybe even finds Denver on its schedule this year! Oh, that would be fun to watch.

[BigJoeWall72]

Kind of interesting to ponder what Denver must be thinking with news of Wilson's impending release.

Those dead cap hits for the next 3 years are going to make it difficult for the team to add in free agency, or give out extensions to any players they might want to keep around. I know some will say cap gymnastics can fix anything, but look at the mess New Orleans is in. Sometimes, the bills come due and there's not a lot you can do about it.

I'd imagine Sean Payton won't be around after 2026 if he lasts that long. The Broncos likely won't be competing with the Chiefs in the NFC West anytime soon.

If they take a rookie QB in the middle of the draft, that contract will be "pretty cheap" for 3 years. Plus that buys Sean Payton the rookie QB buffer time, especially since he wasn't the one to bring Russ in. Plus, Payton has a pretty big contract himself, although it doesn't have any cap implications.

Additionally, the cap had a record increase this off-season, and I wouldn't be shocked if more were coming the next couple years.

Not arguing that this isn't a mess of a situation, but I think they have more flexibility to navigate this dead cap hit better than it might seem initially.

[paytonsdaman]

It would be much more fun for him to play for the veteran minimum in 2024 though, since Denver has to pay him his salary no matter what. So he'd still earn his $34.5 mil, and stick it to the Broncos at the same time. Probably what I'd do if I were him.

This is exactly what the reports I’ve read think he will do. He’s still making a lot of money and whatever team he ends up with has little cap hit and more flexibility.

And then, what if he actually had a good season, and his new team looks better than the Broncos. Or maybe even finds Denver on its schedule this year! Oh, that would be fun to watch.

Barring an injury, only Pittsburgh of the QB needy teams has a low amount of cap space (pre-Free Agency) and that doesn't seem like a fit (he would have to compete to be the starter).

I'd wager most teams don't want him as a distraction in the offseason. He's quirky and may not be talented enough at this point in his career to be brought in as the starter. He would have been cut earlier if it weren't for his salary. Now he is willing to take a "cuttable salary". It seems like he is on a Wentz trajectory at this point in his career.

[killer_of_giants]

he's taking the vet minimum because it doesn't matter to him, he's getting paid the same (much higher) wages regardless. he'll end up somewhere, even as a backup (if he wants to).

i hope he goes to the browns!

[mild]

Barring an injury, only Pittsburgh of the QB needy teams has a low amount of cap space (pre-Free Agency) and that doesn't seem like a fit (he would have to compete to be the starter).

Hilariously, Pittsburgh are signalling that they are going back to the Kenny Pickett well...

The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo reports the Steelers are not interested in acquiring Justin Fields or Russell Wilson this offseason.

The Steelers, apparently, are not going to pursue big-name quarterback options this spring, and instead give Kenny Pickett — he of 13 touchdown passes in 25 NFL games — yet another chance as starter. Pittsburgh general manager Omar Khan said at the NFL Combine that the team has “full faith” in Pickett, who was injured in 2023 and subsequently benched for Mason Rudolph over the season’s final few weeks. “It appears the Steelers are hopeful that first-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith can unlock something in the third-year QB that the NFL has not yet seen,” DeFabo said. If Rudolph re-signs with the Steelers, he could very well supplant Pickett in what is bound to be one of the NFL’s run heaviest offenses.

What a shame for yinzer nation.

[Bronco Billy]

Karl Mecklenburg

After two years of getting to know him, the Broncos believe Russell Wilson isn’t capable of running Sean Peyton’s offense at a championship level. If championships are the mission of this organization then he needed to go. He isn’t a leader. The foolishness that went on in his first year at Denver with a private coach, his own office at the facility, and family at training camp when other players didn’t have those privileges, proved his self centeredness. Leadership is what made guys like Elway and Manning so valuable, even when their physical skills diminished with age. They gathered followers instead of alienating teammates. He’s not someone who is a good example for a newly drafted quarterback showing him how to read defenses. He often doesn’t read the defense and make the right adjustments to get the team into a better play or blocking call. He doesn’t get the ball to the right guy quickly. If they didn’t release him now, another guaranteed portion of his contract would kick in. It’s hard to admit you were wrong. I’m proud of the organization for cutting their losses and releasing Wilson. He's not the right guy for this organization. I hope he lands on his feet with a team who already has leadership and can take advantage of his unquestionable off script playmaking skills.