Phillip Dorsett is a great buy-low opportunity

[_yeti]

I do not believe Dorsett will light the world on fire in his career, but the price tag vs his potential upside makes him a great buy-low opportunity.

After sending offers for about a year and a half, last year I got him as a toss-in on a deal shipping out DeAndre Washington and a 4th! (Witten+Dorsett). I feel like the hype is non-existent for Dorsett compared with his teammate Donte Moncrief. Moncrief has been hyped out of this world and sold for insane prices, while Dorsett has flown under the radar. I think being an under six-foot burner, as well as his injury rookie season and low TD rate has people writing him off before that time has come. He is still in an offense with Andrew Luck and I am hoping for a big jump in year three.

As a comparison exercise I put Dorsett next to Moncrief below. I think the outlook on Moncrief benefitted from seeming to be a buy-low being a 3rd round WR with good measurables, a great QB and no WR competition outside of TY Hilton. This caused the fantasy world to continually pump up his value. Meanwhile, the opposite seems to have happened with Dorsett. He is seen coming into a more crowded situation and then viewed as not being productive, and being one dimensional. With his 1st round pedigree, the disappointment of not having more production caused more pause in the fantasy community for Dorsett than Moncrief. In reality, they have had similar production, with Moncrief edging Dorsett on TD rate. Dorsett's year two stats coming off of a broken ankle are very similar to Moncrief's rookie stats. While Moncrief was out and Dorsett was expected to do more, but he is still developing as a WR and within the offense. If he catches on in year three you get a great WR2/WR3 option for little investment, and if he misses, you aren't out much (compared with investing in a more hyped player).

From a dynasty buying perspective I think Dorsett makes a great buy-low. Who else offers the same upside with a similar price tag? What do people think?

January 2017 Dynasty ADP-
Dorsett- 77th WR, 154th Overall
Moncrief- 18th WR, 26th Overall

College-
Dorsett- Miami, 43 Games, 121 Rec, 2132 yds, 17 TDs,
Moncrief, Mississippi, 38 Games, 156 Rec, 2371 yds, 20 TDs

Combine/NFL Draft
Dorsett- 5'10 185 lbs, Drafted Round 1 pick 29, 4.33 forty, 13 rep bench, 37 inch vert, 122 broad jump, 6.70 3-Cone Drill, 4.11 20 yd shuttle
Moncrief- 6'2 221 lbs, Drafted Round 3 pick 26, 4.40 forty, 13 rep bench, 39.5 inch vert, 132 broad jump, 7.02 3-Cone Drill, 4.30 20 yd shuttle

Rookie Year-
Dorsett- 11 Games, 18 rec, 225 yds, 1 TD, 39 targets
Moncrief- 16 Games, 32 rec, 444 yds, 3 TD, 49 targets

Year 2-
Dorsett- 15 Games, 33 rec, 528 yds, 2 TD, 59 targets
Moncrief- 16 Games, 64 rec, 733 yds, 6 TD, 105 targets

Year 3-
Dorsett- 2017-2018
Moncrief- 9 Games, 30 rec, 307 yds, 7 TD, 56 targets

[btv802]

I am so jaded on Dorsett...but I'm a Moncrief owner now so I'm sure I'll be jaded on him soon enough.

[clarion contrarion]

what I see is that you should sell moncrief and the colts should draft a wr high

problem is they need 4 lb including most glaring need at edge rusher plus a cb plus a rb plus a safety plus ryan grigson fired 3 years ago !

[Valhalla]

what I see is that you should sell moncrief and the colts should draft a wr high

problem is they need 4 lb including most glaring need at edge rusher plus a cb plus a rb plus a safety plus ryan grigson fired 3 years ago !

That's a heck of a problem...

[Goddard]

Not a fan of either, but I'd rather get Dorsett for free (basically), rather than pay what it would cost to get Moncrief.

[Pullo Vision]

I want nothing to do with Dorsett. Moncrief is still worth holding/acquiring.

[maxhyde]

Dorsett easily over Moncrief at respective prices for me

[ericanadian]

Dorsett's main issue seems to be the same issue that Dwayne Allen deals with. The offensive line is junk and for Allen, that means he's held back to block a lot. For Dorsett, who runs mostly deep routes, Luck isn't getting enough time for his routes to develop. The line is young and maybe they develop, but I'd be willing to give Dorsett more time to come into his own. He could be a Mike Wallace type player.

[lukkynumber13]

Dorsett's main issue seems to be the same issue that Dwayne Allen deals with. The offensive line is junk and for Allen, that means he's held back to block a lot. For Dorsett, who runs mostly deep routes, Luck isn't getting enough time for his routes to develop. The line is young and maybe they develop, but I'd be willing to give Dorsett more time to come into his own. He could be a Mike Wallace type player.

That's a good point. Dorsett has very real talent.

[lukkynumber13]

what I see is that you should sell moncrief and the colts should draft a wr high

problem is they need 4 lb including most glaring need at edge rusher plus a cb plus a rb plus a safety plus ryan grigson fired 3 years ago !

You are correct

This would actually be a good year for them to draft a WR, IMO. There is such a perceived drop off after the top 3-4 guys at the position, that Indy could possibly draft a Hansen, Dupre, Cannon, etc in round 5 or so, and get a similar player to some of the WRs going in round 3

[skip]

So we've gone from Dorsett is a faster version of Hilton... To lack of opportunity... To Luck not being able to get the ball deep (funny that some people seem to think deep routes is the only place Hilton excels... How is he managing to put up numbers?)

If we are talking about acquiring Dorsett for a middle 3rd or 4th then I consider being a buyer. If the owner wants a 2nd that isn't buying low.

[Pullo Vision]

Dorsett's main issue seems to be the same issue that Dwayne Allen deals with. The offensive line is junk and for Allen, that means he's held back to block a lot. For Dorsett, who runs mostly deep routes, Luck isn't getting enough time for his routes to develop. The line is young and maybe they develop, but I'd be willing to give Dorsett more time to come into his own. He could be a Mike Wallace type player.

As I understand it, the line's inability to block has forced Indy to go double TE, leaving few snaps for a 3rd WR like Dorsett who can block.

[Cameron Giles]

So we've gone from Dorsett is a faster version of Hilton... To lack of opportunity... To Luck not being able to get the ball deep (funny that some people seem to think deep routes is the only place Hilton excels... How is he managing to put up numbers?)

If we are talking about acquiring Dorsett for a middle 3rd or 4th then I consider being a buyer. If the owner wants a 2nd that isn't buying low.

If you like the talent, a 2nd round pick isn't a bad investment for a WR the Colts spent a 1st on. I do agree though that he's only had a few moments where I saw 1st round talent, though that can also be attributed to the Colts line and some injuries.

[ericanadian]

So we've gone from Dorsett is a faster version of Hilton... To lack of opportunity... To Luck not being able to get the ball deep (funny that some people seem to think deep routes is the only place Hilton excels... How is he managing to put up numbers?)

If we are talking about acquiring Dorsett for a middle 3rd or 4th then I consider being a buyer. If the owner wants a 2nd that isn't buying low.

Fair counterpoint and it's obviously an overly simplistic view to simply blame it on the line. His other issue is route running, which means he needs more time to get open because he's unlikely to beat coverage with anything other than deep speed, which is why I brought up a young (or even ore-Baltimore) Mike Wallace.

Short, in the below data is targets within 15 yards of LOS. Long is targets beyond 15 yards from scrimmage. I'm pulling from pro football reference, so this is their definition, not mine.

Phillip Dorsett (795 snaps)

Short: 24/40 60% 223 Yds 5.57 ypt
Deep: 9/19 47% 305 Yds 16.05 ypt

TY Hilton (948 snaps)

Short: 65/107 60% 729 Yds 6.81 ypt
Deep: 26/48 54% 719 Yds 14.97 ypt

Two things jump out at me. One is that Hilton gets way more targets comparative to his snap count. The second thing is that while Hilton's short/mid game is not great, it's significantly better than Dorsett's.

Ultimately, I'd say this just reinforces my thoughts that Dorsett's route running is weak. This makes it near impossible to shake defenders on short routes and he doesn't have the size to win many contested battles. Further, this hurts his deep game because he generally needs to just outrun guys to get open, because he's not effective in disguising his routes or throwing off defenders. I'd say his issues are correctable and I still think he's a decent investment.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Bought for 3.04, just in case he is this year's Davante Adams (whom I threw the towel in on last offseason).