Keeper Advise

[Steelersfan]

Vjax 103, Colston 106....that looks pretty close to me???? I don't care how many times their QB's pass.

Why not settle this argument with some kind of a bet for 2010? V-Jax vs. Colston

I like the sound of this .

You need help Gino, follow this link...

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/

[Orca]

Why not settle this argument with some kind of a bet for 2010? V-Jax vs. Colston

I like the sound of this .

You need help Gino, follow this link...

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/

anyone want to bet on whether or not I clicked that link?

[MR ROURKE]

did u read everything I wrote? Or can u not read?

"now look at all of your "1st tier" guys...Schaub is definitely in there"


yes I will call u out when i know u havent read everything I wrote. You missed my entire point because of it. I advise you actually do some READING, that might help you understand peoples points better. I dont type just to read and re-read my posts...even though I DO read and re-read my posts a lot just to make sure i am making sense.

Sorry, but I've already addressed your question with my original post, when I stated that (and I quote) "I think VJ, Benson, or Moreno gets back to you at the 4th pick". So Keeping Schaub stops the first three teams that pick that didn't take a QB from upgrading to a QB1 and at least one of the above will be there to fill one of the holes you are complaining that will be harder to fill. Didn't realize I had to repeat myself for you to grasp the concept

[ekassor]

this isn't a discussion of averages . Quite the opposite. It is a discussion of extremes...ceilings and floors. I have something in mind, but let me buy some fruits and vegetables first ok.

ok 98 catches
70 catches
70 catches
and a projected 68 catches

in comparison to
41 catches
59 catches
68 catches

ur fighting a losing battle my friend.....

I'm surprised that you only tell / see half the story here. Fantasy football is about analyzing player's performances and being able to correctly determine whether they are trending upward or trending downward. A perfect uninjured player's career would look like a bell curve. They start slowly while they learn...then continue to improve to a peak and then slowly reduce their output until they retire.

The secret of fantasy is to recognize these trends and catch the players just entering their upswing and selling the players just approaching the downswing. 41, 59, 68 catches is a pretty obvious upward trend. 70, 98, 40 (the season he was hurt that you conveniently ignored), and 70. Add in a microfracture surgery and the emergence of Meachum and you have yourself a compelling argument that that player is trending down. Vjax is just coming into his own.

Through the first 8 weeks of the 2010 season, the top 5 receivers looked like this:

Reggie Wayne............fpts - 155
Andre Johnson...........fpts - 140
Steve Smith (nyg)......fpts - 140
Roddy White...............fpts - 137
Vincent Jackson..........fpts - 133

Pretty impressive, I'd say. It's even more impressive if you consider that neither Andre Johnson nor Steve Smith had their bye weeks at that point of the season.

Now you are going to say, "but 8 weeks doesn't add up to an entire season". You are correct, however, players that are breaking out, often go through streaks of high level success for periods of a season, before they put it all together for a whole year. He's already played half a year at the upper high echelon top 3 wide receiver in the league. Not 2 games, or 4 games, half a season. And once again he improved on all his numbers.

Next years is not going to show up as a breakout statistically because of the suspension, but getting Jackson will give you a player on the upward part of their bell curve, while getting colston will net you a player at the top of the roller coaster, looking downward.

You should write an article about this Orca, you're analysis is that good.

[princevincexoxo]

did u read everything I wrote? Or can u not read?

"now look at all of your "1st tier" guys...Schaub is definitely in there"


yes I will call u out when i know u havent read everything I wrote. You missed my entire point because of it. I advise you actually do some READING, that might help you understand peoples points better. I dont type just to read and re-read my posts...even though I DO read and re-read my posts a lot just to make sure i am making sense.

Sorry, but I've already addressed your question with my original post, when I stated that (and I quote) "I think VJ, Benson, or Moreno gets back to you at the 4th pick". So Keeping Schaub stops the first three teams that pick that didn't take a QB from upgrading to a QB1 and at least one of the above will be there to fill one of the holes you are complaining that will be harder to fill. Didn't realize I had to repeat myself for you to grasp the concept

ok lets put it this way here is Your way

KEEP: ADP, Schaub, AJ, Colston

TOP players on the board: Matthews, Moreno, Benson, Vjax, Bryant, Spiller, Best

Now....with ALL of the QB's available...wouldnt you agree that it would probably be BETTER to somehow grab 2 of those 5...rather than only 1? Because if he keeps Schaub he is only going to get 1 of those 5...and I can pretty much guarantee that.

HOWEVER, if he keeps Moreno and lets Schaub go....lets see how the picture changes

KEEP: ADP, Moreno, SJ, Colston

TOP players on board: Matthews, Benson, Vjax, Bryant, Spiller, Best, Schaub

Now not only does he have a head start over the 4-6 other teams that idiotically kept a QB....but now he has a better chance at 2.4 to draft a QB like Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, or Big Ben in the 2nd or 3rd while he stacks his RB's and WR's while everybody else is trying to put together a core of depth at rb and wr.....releasing Schaub allows him to get the best bang for his buck in the draft, and its not even a question

[jimmo]

Peterson, Johnson, Colston, Jackson. Best available RB with the fourth pick, or BPA if Mathews and Moreno are both gone.

Keeper leagues are much more like redrafts than dynasties, so the need to keep youth at RB2 is highly mitigated by the roster turnover, plus I'm guessing-without knowing the other keepers- that Moreno is more likely to be there at that fourth pick than either Jackson or Colston.

[princevincexoxo]

Peterson, Johnson, Colston, Jackson. Best available RB with the fourth pick, or BPA if Mathews and Moreno are both gone.

Keeper leagues are much more like redrafts than dynasties, so the need to keep youth at RB2 is highly mitigated by the roster turnover, plus I'm guessing-without knowing the other keepers- that Moreno is more likely to be there at that fourth pick than either Jackson or Colston.

This is also another good suggestion 3 solid WR's and a top 3 RB.....

[MR ROURKE]

did u read everything I wrote? Or can u not read?

"now look at all of your "1st tier" guys...Schaub is definitely in there"


yes I will call u out when i know u havent read everything I wrote. You missed my entire point because of it. I advise you actually do some READING, that might help you understand peoples points better. I dont type just to read and re-read my posts...even though I DO read and re-read my posts a lot just to make sure i am making sense.

Sorry, but I've already addressed your question with my original post, when I stated that (and I quote) "I think VJ, Benson, or Moreno gets back to you at the 4th pick". So Keeping Schaub stops the first three teams that pick that didn't take a QB from upgrading to a QB1 and at least one of the above will be there to fill one of the holes you are complaining that will be harder to fill. Didn't realize I had to repeat myself for you to grasp the concept

ok lets put it this way here is Your way

KEEP: ADP, Schaub, AJ, Colston

TOP players on the board: Matthews, Moreno, Benson, Vjax, Bryant, Spiller, Best

Now....with ALL of the QB's available...wouldnt you agree that it would probably be BETTER to somehow grab 2 of those 5...rather than only 1? Because if he keeps Schaub he is only going to get 1 of those 5...and I can pretty much guarantee that.

HOWEVER, if he keeps Moreno and lets Schaub go....lets see how the picture changes

KEEP: ADP, Moreno, SJ, Colston

TOP players on board: Matthews, Benson, Vjax, Bryant, Spiller, Best, Schaub

Now not only does he have a head start over the 4-6 other teams that idiotically kept a QB....but now he has a better chance at 2.4 to draft a QB like Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, or Big Ben in the 2nd or 3rd while he stacks his RB's and WR's while everybody else is trying to put together a core of depth at rb and wr.....releasing Schaub allows him to get the best bang for his buck in the draft, and its not even a question

I have obviously consdered the ramifications of the choice of keepers, but releasing Schaub does not give the best bang for the buck.
The way to get better at Keeper leagues is to keep your strength and draft your weekness to hopefully get better. If you're doing anything differently, then you're making a choice that is making you team weaker.
You clearly devalue the QB, which is fine if you want to do that. I agree with getting a lower QB in 4pt passing TD leagues, but the QB is more important in leagues that award 6pts per passing TD.

You don't get a "headstart" over the teams which correclty keep top their top tier QB's. Keeping Moreno over Schaub downgrades his starting lineup in points per week. The down grade from Schaub is bigger then the down grade from Moreno to Benson/PT/McCoy/Addai/Grant/etc. I don't know the drops, but you appear to know that no one else is going to drop a player of value. Regardless, Schaub outscores the remaing Qb's of Kolb/Eli (clearly big ben since he'll be suspended for 4 games) by more then Moreno might out score the options available at 1.4 or the RB at his next pick for that matter. Moreno might not even outscore those low RB2 or high RB3. Moreno hasn't proven himself yet. So your arguement of dropping Schaub for lower QB's looks the same as telling someone to drop AJ because Crabtree or Nicks will be there to replace him. I like those players upside, but they don't replace AJ. Not sure why someone would want to lose points per week.

He asked for opinions and this is my opinion. Your opinion looks just as dumb to me as mine does to you, so there is no sense in trying to beat up my point of view when yours looks no better from the other side. You'll never be right, because that would make me wrong and I'm rarely wrong

[lemmi]

I'm on the side of letting your QB go.
Statistically, the difference from Schaub to a guy like Cutler is going to pretty insignificant, imo.
Schaub finished as QB5 in my league last year with pretty similar scoring (6pt TD's).
McNabb finished QB12 and was 62 pts. behind or 5.1 pts per week.
Unless we're projecting Schaub to have a QB1 season like Rodgers last year, I think the move is to keep AJ, V-Jax, AP and Moreno.
I do like Colston, but there are alot of mouths to feed in NO. Meachem is definitely on the rise and should see more looks. Plus there's Shockey, Moore, Henderson, Bush.
You could get Schaub at 1.04 if you really wanted to and in effect keep 5, or take best available and address your QB in the 2nd with guys like Cutler (who I like big time MM's offense this year), Kolb, Flacco, etc.

[Steelersfan]

Not only do I think Schaub will be there for me to draft at the 1.04 but I don't think the Rivers owner will be keeping him. Only 1 team that drafts before me needs a QB so I would be able to draft either Schaub or Rivers if I don't keep Schaub.

[MR ROURKE]

Not only do I think Schaub will be there for me to draft at the 1.04 but I don't think the Rivers owner will be keeping him. Only 1 team that drafts before me needs a QB so I would be able to draft either Schaub or Rivers if I don't keep Schaub.

If Schaub or river will be there at 1.4, then I'd keep AP and the three WR's - assuming you start three of course.

[Steelersfan]

Not only do I think Schaub will be there for me to draft at the 1.04 but I don't think the Rivers owner will be keeping him. Only 1 team that drafts before me needs a QB so I would be able to draft either Schaub or Rivers if I don't keep Schaub.

If Schaub or river will be there at 1.4, then I'd keep AP and the three WR's - assuming you start three of course.

We can start 3, I posted the starting roster requirements earlier in this thread...the only downside to the above is that most teams are keeping 2 RB's so this would leave me very thin at RB...

[jimmo]

Not only do I think Schaub will be there for me to draft at the 1.04 but I don't think the Rivers owner will be keeping him. Only 1 team that drafts before me needs a QB so I would be able to draft either Schaub or Rivers if I don't keep Schaub.

If Schaub or river will be there at 1.4, then I'd keep AP and the three WR's - assuming you start three of course.

We can start 3, I posted the starting roster requirements earlier in this thread...the only downside to the above is that most teams are keeping 2 RB's so this would leave me very thin at RB...

if most teams are keeping two backs, Moreno and/or Mathews should be there at 1.4 for you and you'll have the best receivers in the league.

[rkrazy]

That's a nice group of keepers to choose from Mark.

I'm going with AP, Moreno, Colston and Andre as my top 4...

VJax-Colston is ever so close but I pass on Jackson in favor of Colston

[Misfit74]

1. Peterson
2. Andre Johnson
3. M. Colston
4. K. Moreno

I have a feeling that you should still be able to get a quality Qb, so Schaub doesn't get protected here, and I think you keep Moreno due to the likelihood that a lot of RBs will end up protected here.

This.