jenkins.math wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:59 am
Sure, but I think youre ignoring both parties involved. If I took Hock/Fant in the late first area, why would I trade them for a mid 2nd or worse? I still have to start a TE, so am I getting mid 2nd + a startable TE for Hock? If a team has similar production from a TE that they pulled off the WW (Thomas, Tonyan, etc) why would they give up a mid 2nd for Hock? It just seems like a lateral move for both parties and those moves don't get done often.
You wouldn't unless you completely sour on Hock or Fant while they're struggling, which often people do.
Everyone goes into dynasty learning, understanding, and accepting that the TE position is the most slow burn position, but has the most upside because there aren't many studs there. If you've had Kelce, Kittle or Waller in one of the last two years, it's like starting another WR1 or at worst a high-end WR2.
Despite that, people move on quickly from TEs if they don't produce. It's a combination of impatience, other shiny new prospects coming along (deep classes make early 2nds appealing), you moving your team in a different direction, etc.
Pitts may be the best TE prospect in quite some time, but it wasn't that long ago that we had the greatest TE in class in quite some time in 2017. And so far, the only stud from that class is a 5th round TE who caught less than 50 passes in college.
TE continues to be a random success position where draft pedigree hasn't seemed to matter. Just for reference, here's a list of every TE who's been drafted in the 1st or 2nd round since 2010:
2010: Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski
2011: Kyle Rudolph, Lance Kendricks
2012: Coby Fleener
2013: Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald
2014: Eric Ebron, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Jace Amaro, Troy Niklas
2015: Maxx Williams
2016: Hunter Henry
2017: OJ Howard, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Gerald Everett, Adam Shaheen
2018: Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert
2019: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv Smith Jr., Drew Sample
2020: Cole Kmet
It's a goldmine of busts and underachievers. Gronk and Ertz stick out, but that's 2 out of 28.
Like I said, I think Pitts will be a stud, even if it may take some bumps and bruises to get there. Playing that TE development curve on top of the historically random TE success seems wiser than going hard at an early 1st right now.