DJ Moore

[wickerkat1212]

Consistent WR2 finishes on terrible offenses. The horror!

Yeah, I think some people are underselling being a Top-24 WR in fantasy for four consecutive seasons. So, his floor is a WR2 and now that he has a QB upgrade for the first time in four seasons, he still can't be anything more?

Agree. He'll get a lot of attention from Fields, and they match up on deep balls—DJM plays great on the outside, and Fields has some of the best and most accurate deep passes in the league. Bodes well. I can still see DJM getting 1000+ yards and maybe an uptick in TDs. Mooney should benefit. I'm fine with Claypool putting up WR3 numbers, maybe more.

[j4pac]

Consistent WR2 finishes on terrible offenses. The horror!

Yeah, I think some people are underselling being a Top-24 WR in fantasy for four consecutive seasons. So, his floor is a WR2 and now that he has a QB upgrade for the first time in four seasons, he still can't be anything more?

I don't think being a WR2 is his floor. Maybe the Bears are once again a very low volume passing team, so his stats could be worse than while in Carolina. I'd bet against that scenario, but it's a real possibility.

Low can only get so low. Certainly, anything can worse. But not much

[mild]

Consistent WR2 finishes on terrible offenses. The horror!

Yeah, I think some people are underselling being a Top-24 WR in fantasy for four consecutive seasons. So, his floor is a WR2 and now that he has a QB upgrade for the first time in four seasons, he still can't be anything more?

Just so we're clear... this is your upgrade?

There's a pretty good chance it's a marginal upgrade at best. There's going to need to be a huge leap here in Fields' passing game AND an incredibly radical change in offensive philosophy at the same time before we start running laps for DJ Moore.

They could just as easily keep running like crazy, with the weekly passing blow up stat-line taking turns between Mooney / Kmet / DJM / etc.

[Pullo Vision]

I’d probably buy for a second, but people probably want a first.

Yeah, buy for a 2nd, sell for a 1st.

I think it would take a high 2nd and I would not pay a first for him but some might pay a 1.10-1.12.

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

[mild]

I’d probably buy for a second, but people probably want a first.

Yeah, buy for a 2nd, sell for a 1st.

I think it would take a high 2nd and I would not pay a first for him but some might pay a 1.10-1.12.

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

Good lord, DJM for me quite easily.

They're probably equally talented, but one is 25 with 1000 yard seasons in 3 out of 5 years, and the other is 2 years removed from playing with a solitary 1k season to date and is 28.

I don't think any DJM owners are giving up their prize for "1x lightly used Calvin Ridley"

[wickerkat1212]

I’d probably buy for a second, but people probably want a first.

Yeah, buy for a 2nd, sell for a 1st.

I think it would take a high 2nd and I would not pay a first for him but some might pay a 1.10-1.12.

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

Good lord, DJM for me quite easily.

They're probably equally talented, but one is 25 with 1000 yard seasons in 3 out of 5 years, and the other is 2 years removed from playing with a solitary 1k season to date and is 28.

I don't think any DJM owners are giving up their prize for "1x lightly used Calvin Ridley"

Yep

[Jigga94]

I’d probably buy for a second, but people probably want a first.

Yeah, buy for a 2nd, sell for a 1st.

I think it would take a high 2nd and I would not pay a first for him but some might pay a 1.10-1.12.

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

DJM, but a 2nd for Ridley is fair too

[Jrblaha]

I’d probably buy for a second, but people probably want a first.

Yeah, buy for a 2nd, sell for a 1st.

I think it would take a high 2nd and I would not pay a first for him but some might pay a 1.10-1.12.

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

I wouldn’t be surprised if their trade “value” gets pretty close by the start of the season. But I’ve been burned too many times with Ridley type upside / risk so I’d go DJM even tho I’m clearly not stoked about him.

[Pullo Vision]

I’d probably buy for a second, but people probably want a first.

Yeah, buy for a 2nd, sell for a 1st.

I think it would take a high 2nd and I would not pay a first for him but some might pay a 1.10-1.12.

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

I wouldn’t be surprised if their trade “value” gets pretty close by the start of the season. But I’ve been burned too many times with Ridley type upside / risk so I’d go DJM even tho I’m clearly not stoked about him.

Exactly what I was thinking. Based on value trajectories, the move to Chicago seems to have flat lined or even ticked DJM's down, while Ridley's keeps going up.

[Ice]

So, which WR at this cost- DJM or Calvin Ridley?

I wouldn’t be surprised if their trade “value” gets pretty close by the start of the season. But I’ve been burned too many times with Ridley type upside / risk so I’d go DJM even tho I’m clearly not stoked about him.

Exactly what I was thinking. Based on value trajectories, the move to Chicago seems to have flat lined or even ticked DJM's down, while Ridley's keeps going up.

Closer than many think.

Ridley has 28 TD's in 49 Games; 248 Receptions. 5.06 per game
Moore has 21 TD's in 80 Games; 364 Receptions. 4.55 per game

Lawrence is a far more skilled passer and Ridley has always been good in the Red Zone. Obviously, he has been away; At 28 he still should have several years of production left.

Moore is 2.5 years younger but the career production value is on Ridley's side which is an offset.

There is higher risk with Ridley but his upside looks higher given his QB and team are better.

[mild]

Closer than many think.

Ridley has 28 TD's in 49 Games; 248 Receptions. 5.06 per game
Moore has 21 TD's in 80 Games; 364 Receptions. 4.55 per game

Lawrence is a far more skilled passer and Ridley has always been good in the Red Zone. Obviously, he has been away; At 28 he still should have several years of production left.

Moore is 2.5 years younger but the career production value is on Ridley's side which is an offset.

There is higher risk with Ridley but his upside looks higher given his QB and team are better.

"Hmmmm. Why would Ice make a straw-man case using TD's and receptions as production without including the yardage? He knows TD's aren't sticky year-on-year..."

DJM - 364 rec for 5201 yards, 14.3 yards p/r - 80 games
CRid - 248 rec for 3342 yards, 13.5 yards p/r - 49 games

I'll just rewrite the bolded for you: Moore is 2.5 years younger with far greater availability and career production to date, but this COULD be Ridley's year given that T-Law -> Fields as a thrower, and quite easily.

I'm still taking DJM long term in Dynasty, but agree that this is the year to own Ridley in redrafts.

[Ice]

Closer than many think.

Ridley has 28 TD's in 49 Games; 248 Receptions. 5.06 per game
Moore has 21 TD's in 80 Games; 364 Receptions. 4.55 per game

Lawrence is a far more skilled passer and Ridley has always been good in the Red Zone. Obviously, he has been away; At 28 he still should have several years of production left.

Moore is 2.5 years younger but the career production value is on Ridley's side which is an offset.

There is higher risk with Ridley but his upside looks higher given his QB and team are better.

"Hmmmm. Why would Ice make a straw-man case using TD's and receptions as production without including the yardage? He knows TD's aren't sticky year-on-year..."

DJM - 364 rec for 5201 yards, 14.3 yards p/r - 80 games
CRid - 248 rec for 3342 yards, 13.5 yards p/r - 49 games

I'll just rewrite the bolded for you: Moore is 2.5 years younger with far greater availability and career production to date, but this COULD be Ridley's year given that T-Law -> Fields as a thrower, and quite easily.

I'm still taking DJM long term in Dynasty, but agree that this is the year to own Ridley in redrafts.

Mild,

And to think you were really doing good at keeping trolling to a minimum; That said, it is pretty sad if that's all you got.

It's simple to look up Yards per reception but then again Moore did have one outlier year where his Yards per reception were 18.1. His best reception year was 93 and 12.4 Yards per reception in 2021.

I get some do not really understand the concept of routes or Red zone usage but TD's actually matter. You seem to believe TD's are just dumb luck.....They are not. They obviously vary like Yards per reception but TD production is considered by good players of Fantasy.

It isn't dumb luck that Ridley in 31 less games and 116 fewer receptions, and 1859 fewer yards has 7 more TD's. He did that in close to two full years less time.

Moore is very good between the 20's. As the field shrinks in the Red Zone his production drops.

No worries, keep believing it's all straw-man TD thinking and better players will continue to just laugh.

The real fallacy is taking players only with a long term view. These players are close and as you indicated for this year Ridley may even be better. The only real question is he good enough to get your team to a title?

Not a huge fan of either personally for different reasons but I imagine Ridley will get more targets. Lawrence threw the ball over 34 times a game last year vs under 27 for Fields. Lawrence also had a 6% advantage in completion percentage. Lawrence will most likely throw at least 125 more passes this coming season.

[mild]

It isn't dumb luck that Ridley in 31 less games and 116 fewer receptions, and 1859 fewer yards has 7 more TD's. He did that in close to two full years less time.

Moore is very good between the 20's. As the field shrinks in the Red Zone his production drops.

No worries, keep believing it's all straw-man TD thinking and better players will continue to laugh at you.

Love a bit of snark with my condescension, thanks kindly as always (not n)Ice.

Here's some light reading for you on the most predictable wide receiver stats year-on-year. Please take note of where Touchdowns and Touchdown Per-Target Rates rank compared to the other "stickier" metrics. Enjoy. Eat Arbys.
https://www.4for4.com/2022/preseason/mo ... iver-stats

Could it possibly be, that Calvin Ridley, on the Matt Ryan Falcons, had a lot more red zone targets and opportunities in his career than DJ Moore has had to date with whichever sh-t sandwich Panthers QB you could care to name?

A very quick look at the stats from 2019 to 2021 (the Ridley years) - total Passing TD's by team:
Carolina - 17, 16, 14 total passing TD's - 47 total TD's
Atlanta - 29, 27, 20 total passing TD's - 76 total TD's

40% bigger pies make for better eating, hmmm? It's almost like TD's and Red Zone efficiency might be just as much a QB stat as a WR one...

[Ice]

It isn't dumb luck that Ridley in 31 less games and 116 fewer receptions, and 1859 fewer yards has 7 more TD's. He did that in close to two full years less time.

Moore is very good between the 20's. As the field shrinks in the Red Zone his production drops.

No worries, keep believing it's all straw-man TD thinking and better players will continue to laugh at you.

Love a bit of snark with my condescension, thanks kindly as always (not n)Ice.

Here's some light reading for you on the most predictable wide receiver stats year-on-year. Please take note of where Touchdowns and Touchdown Per-Target Rates rank compared to the other "stickier" metrics. Enjoy. Eat Arbys.
https://www.4for4.com/2022/preseason/mo ... iver-stats

Could it possibly be, that Calvin Ridley, on the Matt Ryan Falcons, had a lot more red zone targets and opportunities in his career than DJ Moore has had to date with whichever sh-t sandwich Panthers QB you could care to name?

A very quick look at the stats from 2019 to 2021 (the Ridley years) - total Passing TD's by team:
Carolina - 17, 16, 14 total passing TD's - 47 total TD's
Atlanta - 29, 27, 20 total passing TD's - 76 total TD's

40% bigger pies make for better eating, hmmm? It's almost like TD's and Red Zone efficiency might be just as much a QB stat as a WR one...

You are finally making my argument. Of course QB's matter. The better ones will heavily target players like D. Adams, C, Kupp or even Ridley when they can easily beat press with their first step quickness. It is obviously a combination of QB and WR. Never claimed otherwise.

Some WR are just simply better than others in very tight spaces and that shouldn't be discounted. Moore owners are disappointed annually It's just that many of them choose to blame the QB entirely without studying how he runs routes in the red zone. Let's just say it isn't a beautiful thing to watch. In 5 years Moore has had more than 4 TD's once and that was last year. He now gets a QB that loves to run. Maybe he finally develops into a legit TD threat.

It's not luck, there are reasons players like Adams has had double digit TD's in 6 of the last 7 years. He had 14 with Carr last season. While Ridley is no Adams, in his last 3 full years. 2018: 10 in 16 games, 2019: 7 in 13 games, 2020: 9 in 15 games.

No telling how he will do after the layoff but the odds are pretty strong he will score a lot of TD's with Lawrence throwing the ball. People forget how great Ridley was against Press when he entered the league. He was 5th in the NFL his rookie year against press.

Just go study their routes and then compare them to DJ Moore. Ridley is adept at getting open in tight spaces. He now has a breakout stud to develop chemistry with on a daily basis.

You will be enlightened.

[gogobradyarm]

Closer than many think.

Ridley has 28 TD's in 49 Games; 248 Receptions. 5.06 per game
Moore has 21 TD's in 80 Games; 364 Receptions. 4.55 per game

Lawrence is a far more skilled passer and Ridley has always been good in the Red Zone. Obviously, he has been away; At 28 he still should have several years of production left.

Moore is 2.5 years younger but the career production value is on Ridley's side which is an offset.

There is higher risk with Ridley but his upside looks higher given his QB and team are better.

"Hmmmm. Why would Ice make a straw-man case using TD's and receptions as production without including the yardage? He knows TD's aren't sticky year-on-year..."

DJM - 364 rec for 5201 yards, 14.3 yards p/r - 80 games
CRid - 248 rec for 3342 yards, 13.5 yards p/r - 49 games

I'll just rewrite the bolded for you: Moore is 2.5 years younger with far greater availability and career production to date, but this COULD be Ridley's year given that T-Law -> Fields as a thrower, and quite easily.

I'm still taking DJM long term in Dynasty, but agree that this is the year to own Ridley in redrafts.

Wasn't Ridley like 24 as a rookie and Moore was 20 or 21?