New Heights of Rookie Fever

[murphysxm]

So to take Julio with "plan" to trade later OBJ was not an option.

Your team, your call- but this is flawed logic. You traded $.75 to get a $1 in your first trade and because of that you passed spending $.25 to get a $1. You know have $1.25 instead of $2. You should always acquire value when it is presented.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Your team, your call- but this is flawed logic. You traded $.75 to get a $1 in your first trade and because of that you passed spending $.25 to get a $1. You know have $1.25 instead of $2. You should always acquire value when it is presented.

100% this. The initial logic also doesn't make any sense. You didn't want to do the trade because you would have to bench JuJu? I love JuJu, but he's probably not going to outperform Julio this season.

I wonder how many teams are in this league and what the starting requirements are.

[dynastyninja]

And you'll be creating a Rookie Fever Bitchfest thread in 2021 when you're trying to buy back into the first round again.

And to think, you could have had one for a RB4.

Incorrect, been doing this for 10 years and have never seen hype like this before.

Hard to believe you've been doing this for 10 years and you didn't accept a 2021 1st round pick for the Cohen, with his current startup ADP of 124... Don't care how much I love a player, if the entire world is putting him outside the top 100 in ADP, I have the insight to adjust my personal beliefs a bit when a 1st round pick is being offered. Once again, brilliant example of how this isn't rookie class hype, it's your player valuations being WAYYYYY off.

It's probably the other way around in all honesty. I used to follow ADP religiously, but now I only reference it in passing. Owners (in my opinion) get caught up in the hype and youth and stray from the most important thing, which is putting up fantasy points.

I bet I could build a playoff roster with players in the 100-200 range of ADP. That's not necessarily relevant to this discussion, though, just a fun thought.

I understand following the logic of the crowd (it's right more than wrong, especially for ADP), but I believe in Cohen's ability and the fact that he will have a producing role in the NFL for 3-5 years or more. The first is (as close as you can get to being) a lock to be in the 1.9-1.12 range.

Cohen was an RB3 in a down year. If I were guaranteed 3+ years of RB3 production for a late first, I'd pay that for most roster constructions. Cohen is a FA next offseason, and I'm optimistic that he goes to a team that will use him a lot. I think his long-term floor is RB3 with a lot more upside.

I view him like I viewed Darren Sproles. Unlikely to be an RB1, but he'll give me solid production for years. The chances of a late first prospect matching that are slim.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Ninja, I wouldn't impugn your fantasy knowledge or experience over this, and your posts are typically great, but you should have 100% sold Cohen for a 2021 first. I'd go back to that guy and see if you can get a first and a third or something. Worst case scenario you could use that 2021 first to package up for a stud.

[dynastyninja]

Ninja, I wouldn't impugn your fantasy knowledge or experience over this, and your posts are typically great, but you should have 100% sold Cohen for a 2021 first. I'd go back to that guy and see if you can get a first and a third or something. Worst case scenario you could use that 2021 first to package up for a stud.

Fully understand that I'm putting Cohen way above his current ADP, but I feel good about the long term prospects and the safety. I trust what I'm getting with him. There's also the potential that he goes to the perfect team next offseason and I'm looking at RB1/2 production.

Trading him would leave me lighter at RB than I want to be anyways. He's an excellent roster piece if I lose either of my top RBs.

[dustyroads]

Incorrect, been doing this for 10 years and have never seen hype like this before.

Hard to believe you've been doing this for 10 years and you didn't accept a 2021 1st round pick for the Cohen, with his current startup ADP of 124... Don't care how much I love a player, if the entire world is putting him outside the top 100 in ADP, I have the insight to adjust my personal beliefs a bit when a 1st round pick is being offered. Once again, brilliant example of how this isn't rookie class hype, it's your player valuations being WAYYYYY off.

It's probably the other way around in all honesty. I used to follow ADP religiously, but now I only reference it in passing. Owners (in my opinion) get caught up in the hype and youth and stray from the most important thing, which is putting up fantasy points.

I bet I could build a playoff roster with players in the 100-200 range of ADP. That's not necessarily relevant to this discussion, though, just a fun thought.

I understand following the logic of the crowd (it's right more than wrong, especially for ADP), but I believe in Cohen's ability and the fact that he will have a producing role in the NFL for 3-5 years or more. The first is (as close as you can get to being) a lock to be in the 1.9-1.12 range.

Cohen was an RB3 in a down year. If I were guaranteed 3+ years of RB3 production for a late first, I'd pay that for most roster constructions. Cohen is a FA next offseason, and I'm optimistic that he goes to a team that will use him a lot. I think his long-term floor is RB3 with a lot more upside.

I view him like I viewed Darren Sproles. Unlikely to be an RB1, but he'll give me solid production for years. The chances of a late first prospect matching that are slim.

I get where you’re coming from, and thanks for the explanation because it definite helps paint the picture better of your strategy. Also didn’t know his impending FA status.

I guess where I am coming from is I typically always have two rankings going on continuously throughout each season, kinda like most people do for the draft. My own rankings, which would be where you are at on Cohen, but the other a consensus of ADP taken from a few different sites and sources. I find it extremely difficult to make trades with league mates (especially because my main league is very difficult to trade in; lots of talks and very little movement as everyone searches for lopsided win and tends to over value their own team to the extreme) without using ADP as a barometer for them. Obv no one will believe me when I try to tell them what I think the value of a player is, whether it’s on my team or theirs, but if I can point them to two or three sources citing composite rankings or even better Mizzelle style rankings built off actual draft data, they tend to soften their stance a little bit. Rather then preach to them, hand them a few sources I use myself and say “this is about where the value falls” and then normally can tweak it from there based on people’s personal rankings.

Agree with OCR I’d still try to get that 1st from Cohen, but if he’s an immovable piece for you, I’d be trying to move your picks in this draft during the draft itself to people for 2021 picks. And then by week 9-trade deadline start working on moving the vets. Should be able to get a decent haul in 2021, even if they aren’t all 1sts it will be easier to package picks and players or even multiple picks to get a few swings in the first next year.

[Cameron Giles]

Cohen for a 1st this year or next year is a very easy accept.

I'm confused as to why we're talking about Cohen like he's not being used a lot. He had 104 targets last year. Austin Ekeler had 108. Maybe you could argue that the depth of targets could improve, but Cohen is currently seeing a ton of usage as a scatback.

Since 2017, Cohen has 266 targets. Only three RBs have a higher amount of targets during that span: McCaffrey, Kamara, White. He is seeing elite passing game usage. The comparison to Sproles (at least from a usage standpoint) is weird. Sproles targets during his first 5 seasons in the league: 4, 12, 34, 57, 75. Then he goes to the Saints and sees 111, which is basically what Cohen already has.

With this year's class and next year's crop of RBs coming in, I just don't see a reasonable chance that he's an RB1. Especially not a chance that would make me turn down a 1st. The value/expectation is just really off.

[Finfansteve]

No one was willing to pay that for Julio last year or 2 years ago, obviously he won't go for that this year. Julio's value has been depressed for years.

Its sad because hes probably still has 2-4 years of elite production. I bought him during a playoff run, cost me 2020 1st 2021 1st, I came in second, but none the less I'm still glad to have him.

I'd agree. Bought a few years ago. Would be awesome to watch him go as long as Fitz has. Selling now would likely mean getting a mid to late first. I'd rather hold him, enjoy what production I get left instead of expect top rookie picks

I agree. I shopped him around the league there were no takers so as I’m a contender I’ll just keep him and take what he gives me for the rest of his career. The production he gives you is worth holding him and not giving him away for peanuts

[Jfever]

Rookie fever in full effect in a draft I’m in. First, I offered Brandon Cooks and J.Goff to a team that I thought really needed qb help AND a startable 3rd wr, for the 2.04. Declined and the owner took Aiyuk. Ok, I thought it was a generous offer but I can see why someone could decline. Then I moved on, I offered Sony - for the 3.01 and next years 3.01, to a rb needy team and it was declined. Then I offered Darrell Henderson for the 3.01 and the future 3rd, declined, No biggy but then the guy drafted Anthony McFarland. Must be much higher on McFarland than I am.

This to me is rookie pick fever, but, in all honesty, the guys I was offering weren’t without some questions, and they have every right to manage their teams how they wish.

[Sriracha]

Rookie fever in full effect in a draft I’m in. First, I offered Brandon Cooks and J.Goff to a team that I thought really needed qb help AND a startable 3rd wr, for the 2.04. Declined and the owner took Aiyuk. Ok, I thought it was a generous offer but I can see why someone could decline. Then I moved on, I offered Sony - for the 3.01 and next years 3.01, to a rb needy team and it was declined. Then I offered Darrell Henderson for the 3.01 and the future 3rd, declined, No biggy but then the guy drafted Anthony McFarland. Must be much higher on McFarland than I am.

This to me is rookie pick fever, but, in all honesty, the guys I was offering weren’t without some questions, and they have every right to manage their teams how they wish.

Not sure if I'd call it rookie fever; since you were willing to trade these players for someone in the same slot.

The veterans you offered are all unsexy picks at the moment; I personally don't want any of the players you listed on my roster (except cooks). McFarland's not likely to take over James Conner's starting gig; but it's a hell of a lot more likely than Henderson taking over LAR for instance (In case you missed it, the LAR's have a video of their war room making some of their selections where they specifically asked: "Are we taking Akers in the 2nd or Perine in the 4th"? To which one of them responds, "We've gotta go Akers, he's our bell cow". Some people believe Henderson has an outside shot of taking the starting gig this year.... I don't think that's realistic given what we know now.

[Jfever]

Yep, I was offering semi unsexy players, I can agree with that. But in this case, you must be VERY low on Sony to pick Mcfarland over him. I mean....the owner owns Damien Harris and I figured for that price, It would make sense for his squad. Then to my amusement, two picks later, same owner selects Enu Benjamin. - rb on roster that are worth mentioning aside from Enu and McFarland, are Aaron Jones, A.Ekler, T.Coleman, and D.Harris.

Also to turn down B.Cooks & Goff in favor of Aiyuk. Well... it’s hard for me to explain considering the need for a startable 3rd wr in the short term, and back up to their Wentz.

I guess we just value players differently. I do understand the hesitation on Darrell Henderson but he is 22 with decent draft capital invested just last year, and upside if Akers doesn’t pan out. Wild card similar to a 3rd round pick, but, imo, more talented than Enu or McFarland. If anything, this tells me Sony Michel has less value than I thought. Live and learn. just the wrong time (During draft) to make offers Involving picks to some owners is my take on it.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Everybody who rejects my offer for their rookie pick has rookie fever.

[Jfever]

Everybody who rejects my offer for their rookie pick has rookie fever.

. So true.

I’m not salty really. Hope it didn’t come across that way. I was amused is all. In reality, often times the offers I send that get rejected actually Saves myself from myself. I admit the offers themselves were in a way, me myself having some rookie fever. Why else take the time to offer them? I certainly can’t blame others for feeling similar about 3rd round rookie’s upsides. Imo, It just makes more sense for some rosters than others.

[Pac_Eddy]

Everybody who rejects my offer for their rookie pick has rookie fever.

. So true.

I’m not salty really. Hope it didn’t come across that way. I was amused is all. In reality, often times the offers I send that get rejected actually Saves myself from myself. I admit the offers themselves were in a way, me myself having some rookie fever. Why else take the time to offer them? I certainly can’t blame others for feeling similar about 3rd round rookie’s upsides. Imo, It just makes more sense for some rosters than others.

FWIW I think your offers were fine and the guy drafting McFarland over Michel is nuts. Maybe there's something about his roster we don't know but he passed up value.

[TimeWillTell]

Everybody who rejects my offer for their rookie pick has rookie fever.

. So true.

I’m not salty really. Hope it didn’t come across that way. I was amused is all. In reality, often times the offers I send that get rejected actually Saves myself from myself. I admit the offers themselves were in a way, me myself having some rookie fever. Why else take the time to offer them? I certainly can’t blame others for feeling similar about 3rd round rookie’s upsides. Imo, It just makes more sense for some rosters than others.

Who were you going to pick if he had accepted the Michel trade?