Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[Cameron Giles]

Mayer is the #8 overall player on Kiper's board right now. No idea why people think his draft stock isn't going to be good. I think teams already know he isn't going to blaze the 40 and isn't a Kyle Pitts type of athlete.

Hock actually went 8 overall and wasn't a difference maker. A solid TE for FF, and one I'm glad to roster in heavy TE premium, but I just don't like drafting TE's early in rookie drafts. Not good process IMO. You can usually get a guy you like a year or two later than his initial rookie draft cost, because TE's don't typically show out early.

I agree with you that drafting TEs early isn't wise. I'm just speaking to Mayer's draft stock. All indications are he'll be a real first round pick. As far as how Mayer pans out in the NFL, I think he can be really good. He just doesn't have many holes in his game and you can't scheme him off the field.

I think Hockenson has been fine in the NFL, but obviously overdrafted because teams were riding the Kittle train hard, and you had these two from the same school who both looked like they had a little bit of that in them.

But I agree. With TEs, it's not about buying early; it's about buying at the right time. You can almost always get TEs for cheap right before they break out.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Mayer is the #8 overall player on Kiper's board right now. No idea why people think his draft stock isn't going to be good. I think teams already know he isn't going to blaze the 40 and isn't a Kyle Pitts type of athlete.

As someone who took Ebron at #8 (or 9?) and thought I was getting a beast...I won't do it again.

[ericanadian]

Mayer went from being graded as the #16 TE in the nation in 2021 to #1 in 2022. Put up near identical stats in 2022 as 2021 with more TDs. All his stats should have plummeted as the QB play at ND was awful, he was the only weapon catching the ball, and opposing teams focused on him because that's all they had to do. Maybe he "won" differently this year than last, but even with everything going against him all year he continued to produce and make big plays game after game.

Agreed, I don’t quite get the hate. Tell me more about how a 6’4” 265 pound TE doesn’t look like the most agile player on the field. You don’t say? Not everyone is built like Kyle Pitts. Kelce’s 40 time was nearly a 4.7 and he ended up being pretty good.

The guy just makes plays and is a smart football player.

Kelce ran a 4.61 at his Pro Day and it was adjusted up to a 4.66, which I guess is where the nearly 4.7 is coming from. The adjustment is just a rule of thumb based on averages because Pro Day times are generally inaccurate. Doesn’t mean that every individual Pro Day is off though and certainly not off by exactly 0.05. That said, 4.66 is still 81st percentile for a TE. Hockenson ran a 4.70 and that’s still 72nd percentile. If Mayer is actually slow, he’ll be running in the high 4.7s and then it might be worth worrying.

[kmbryant09]

I guess I should clarify my comments regarding Mayer.

I thought his '21 tape was very, very, very good. Jump off the screen, elite athleticism (for a guy his size) and a sure-fire top15 draft pick.

I thought his '22 tape was significantly worse from an athleticism and play-making perspective. The '22 tape still showed a very good TE, and one that would probably be a first round draft pick. But for all the hype about him being "baby Gronk" & a top10 draft pick, I just didn't really see it this season.

Like I said in my original assessment, I will rely heavily on his combine performance and NFL draft position - as that should provide more clarity on his athletic profile. I still have him in the 8 - 12 range on my early-off-season draft board.

[Cameron Giles]

Mayer went from being graded as the #16 TE in the nation in 2021 to #1 in 2022. Put up near identical stats in 2022 as 2021 with more TDs. All his stats should have plummeted as the QB play at ND was awful, he was the only weapon catching the ball, and opposing teams focused on him because that's all they had to do. Maybe he "won" differently this year than last, but even with everything going against him all year he continued to produce and make big plays game after game.

Agreed, I don’t quite get the hate. Tell me more about how a 6’4” 265 pound TE doesn’t look like the most agile player on the field. You don’t say? Not everyone is built like Kyle Pitts. Kelce’s 40 time was nearly a 4.7 and he ended up being pretty good.

The guy just makes plays and is a smart football player.

Kelce ran a 4.61 at his Pro Day and it was adjusted up to a 4.66, which I guess is where the nearly 4.7 is coming from. The adjustment is just a rule of thumb based on averages because Pro Day times are generally inaccurate. Doesn’t mean that every individual Pro Day is off though and certainly not off by exactly 0.05. That said, 4.66 is still 81st percentile for a TE. Hockenson ran a 4.70 and that’s still 72nd percentile. If Mayer is actually slow, he’ll be running in the high 4.7s and then it might be worth worrying.

FWIW, Ertz ran 4.76 and turned out just fine. I don't think Mayer running in the 4.7s would be at all concerning. Speed isn't going to prevent his game from translating or potentially becoming an elite TE.

[ericanadian]

Agreed, I don’t quite get the hate. Tell me more about how a 6’4” 265 pound TE doesn’t look like the most agile player on the field. You don’t say? Not everyone is built like Kyle Pitts. Kelce’s 40 time was nearly a 4.7 and he ended up being pretty good.

The guy just makes plays and is a smart football player.

Kelce ran a 4.61 at his Pro Day and it was adjusted up to a 4.66, which I guess is where the nearly 4.7 is coming from. The adjustment is just a rule of thumb based on averages because Pro Day times are generally inaccurate. Doesn’t mean that every individual Pro Day is off though and certainly not off by exactly 0.05. That said, 4.66 is still 81st percentile for a TE. Hockenson ran a 4.70 and that’s still 72nd percentile. If Mayer is actually slow, he’ll be running in the high 4.7s and then it might be worth worrying.

FWIW, Ertz ran 4.76 and turned out just fine. I don't think Mayer running in the 4.7s would be at all concerning. Speed isn't going to prevent his game from translating or potentially becoming an elite TE.

Ertz ran a 4.67 Pro Day and has the second worst speed score of all TEs with multiple top five seasons over the last ten years. Kyle Rudolph is the only guy who was slower and man… I hope you’re aiming higher than Kyle Rudolph when drafting for an elite TE.

[JoeJoe88]

Kelce ran a 4.61 at his Pro Day and it was adjusted up to a 4.66, which I guess is where the nearly 4.7 is coming from. The adjustment is just a rule of thumb based on averages because Pro Day times are generally inaccurate. Doesn’t mean that every individual Pro Day is off though and certainly not off by exactly 0.05. That said, 4.66 is still 81st percentile for a TE. Hockenson ran a 4.70 and that’s still 72nd percentile. If Mayer is actually slow, he’ll be running in the high 4.7s and then it might be worth worrying.

FWIW, Ertz ran 4.76 and turned out just fine. I don't think Mayer running in the 4.7s would be at all concerning. Speed isn't going to prevent his game from translating or potentially becoming an elite TE.

Ertz ran a 4.67 Pro Day and has the second worst speed score of all TEs with multiple top five seasons over the last ten years. Kyle Rudolph is the only guy who was slower and man… I hope you’re aiming higher than Kyle Rudolph when drafting for an elite TE.

Ah, the old Pro Day numbers. I’m sure we can pump up a lot of guys times if we start using those.

You know, it’s funny. I don’t ever recall a players Pro Day 40 time being worse than their combine time. Wonder why that is?

[FantasyFreak]

FWIW, Ertz ran 4.76 and turned out just fine. I don't think Mayer running in the 4.7s would be at all concerning. Speed isn't going to prevent his game from translating or potentially becoming an elite TE.

Ertz ran a 4.67 Pro Day and has the second worst speed score of all TEs with multiple top five seasons over the last ten years. Kyle Rudolph is the only guy who was slower and man… I hope you’re aiming higher than Kyle Rudolph when drafting for an elite TE.

Ah, the old Pro Day numbers. I’m sure we can pump up a lot of guys times if we start using those.

You know, it’s funny. I don’t ever recall a players Pro Day 40 time being worse than their combine time. Wonder why that is?

Hand times are faster. It's documented. PlayerProfiler has discussed it at length on their podcast. There's a ton of data they've collected and it's why they adjust the pro day times on their site.

[ericanadian]

FWIW, Ertz ran 4.76 and turned out just fine. I don't think Mayer running in the 4.7s would be at all concerning. Speed isn't going to prevent his game from translating or potentially becoming an elite TE.

Ertz ran a 4.67 Pro Day and has the second worst speed score of all TEs with multiple top five seasons over the last ten years. Kyle Rudolph is the only guy who was slower and man… I hope you’re aiming higher than Kyle Rudolph when drafting for an elite TE.

Ah, the old Pro Day numbers. I’m sure we can pump up a lot of guys times if we start using those.

You know, it’s funny. I don’t ever recall a players Pro Day 40 time being worse than their combine time. Wonder why that is?

The standard adjustment is 0.05, so if they adjusted Pro Day he would land at 4.72, which is not high 4.7s. My point is more that I’m not going to have full confidence in a guy who runs slower than the slowest elite TE of the last decade just because its possible.

[JoeJoe88]

Ertz ran a 4.67 Pro Day and has the second worst speed score of all TEs with multiple top five seasons over the last ten years. Kyle Rudolph is the only guy who was slower and man… I hope you’re aiming higher than Kyle Rudolph when drafting for an elite TE.

Ah, the old Pro Day numbers. I’m sure we can pump up a lot of guys times if we start using those.

You know, it’s funny. I don’t ever recall a players Pro Day 40 time being worse than their combine time. Wonder why that is?

The standard adjustment is 0.05, so if they adjusted Pro Day he would land at 4.72, which is not high 4.7s. My point is more that I’m not going to have full confidence in a guy who runs slower than the slowest elite TE of the last decade just because its possible.

Personally, I’m not letting a slower than expected 40 time push me off a prospect that I like, least of all at the TE position. Noah Fant is a super athlete across the board in testing and he’s proved to be a slightly better than average TE at the next level. Goedert ran a 4.69.

40 time is a nice tool to have, but it’s far from an end-all to determining how good a players going to be in the league, and I think it’s even less important at TE.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I think there’s more to pro days being faster than just hand times. The players have more time to train for it. If they already attended the combine they can see where they went wrong and work on their 40 technique. Often they have also shed weight between the combine and pro day therefor allowing themselves to run faster and jump higher (see Allen robinson for example who shed over 10lbs and improved his numbers greatly). Not saying the hand time isn’t also a factor but it’s not the only factor. Also home field advantage, doing things on your own time and not having to do things when you aren’t ready like at the combine. I just think people have wrongly put the difference all on the timing method and don’t understand there are many different factors that go into better pro day testing. It doesn’t mean pro day times are phony. Those times can be just as “real” as combine times, the quintessential difference apart from the timing method is that combine times are all on an even playing field and pro day are not. So that’s why combine is so much more important.

[dmac37]

Any of the college / draft guys have an opinion on the tier breaks for the 1st and 2nd round pre draft, 1Qb 1pt PPR.

[smbkrypt24]

I think there’s more to pro days being faster than just hand times. The players have more time to train for it. If they already attended the combine they can see where they went wrong and work on their 40 technique. Often they have also shed weight between the combine and pro day therefor allowing themselves to run faster and jump higher (see Allen robinson for example who shed over 10lbs and improved his numbers greatly). Not saying the hand time isn’t also a factor but it’s not the only factor. Also home field advantage, doing things on your own time and not having to do things when you aren’t ready like at the combine. I just think people have wrongly put the difference all on the timing method and don’t understand there are many different factors that go into better pro day testing. It doesn’t mean pro day times are phony. Those times can be just as “real” as combine times, the quintessential difference apart from the timing method is that combine times are all on an even playing field and pro day are not. So that’s why combine is so much more important.

Agree on a lot of this especially the part about doing things when you want to on Pro Day and not part of the group schedule. I have heard the schedule is quite intense for the combine and leads to some really bombing it.

[kmbryant09]

Any of the college / draft guys have an opinion on the tier breaks for the 1st and 2nd round pre draft, 1Qb 1pt PPR.

Still early for me, but here are my tier breaks so far:

Bijan

Gibbs
JSN
Addison

Tucker
Bigsby
Johnston
Evans

Charbonnet
Corum
Mayer
Downs
Miller

Vaughn
Hyatt
Flowers
Achane
Brown

[smbkrypt24]

Any of the college / draft guys have an opinion on the tier breaks for the 1st and 2nd round pre draft, 1Qb 1pt PPR.

Still early for me, but here are my tier breaks so far:

Bijan

Gibbs
JSN
Addison

Tucker
Bigsby
Johnston
Evans

Charbonnet
Corum
Mayer
Downs
Miller

Vaughn
Hyatt
Flowers
Achane
Brown

Thanks for this list. Do you really not have any QBs in the top 20?

I agree on tier one and two. Tier 3 I have Johnston at the top. Tier 4 Mayer and Downs at the top and would include Young and Stroud. Tier 5 is not in my scope yet, but probably includes Richardson.