Running Back Vulnerability Index

[OhCruelestRanter]

Thanks everybody- this has been a fun and refreshing thread. Poll’s closed now.

Looking at the results, the guy with the most votes that I think could get through unscathed is Damien Williams. KC currently has 6 RBs on the roster- both Williams’, Darwin, Elijah McGuire, Mike Weber, and now DeAndre Washington. None of those guys are studs, but signing all these backs doesn’t seem to add up if they’re planning on drafting a guy early.

At the combine they met with CEH, Moss, and McFarland. Any of those guys in KC would throw rookie drafts for a loop.

It might not matter how many RBs they have if none of them have any guaranteed money. KC could draft a RB back and just drop the ones they don't want.

This is a good point- McGuire and Weber have nothing guaranteed. Washington’s contract isn’t public yet as far as I can tell.

[FantasyFreak]

Rams picking up pick 57 changes my outlook on Henderson quite a bit right now.

[Pullo Vision]

Rams picking up pick 57 changes my outlook on Henderson quite a bit right now.

Good call they had been short on assets.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Rams picking up pick 57 changes my outlook on Henderson quite a bit right now.

Agreed- I still think they have bigger needs, and a WR might make more sense there, but RB seems more in play.

[ericanadian]

Rams picking up pick 57 changes my outlook on Henderson quite a bit right now.

Losing Cooks creates a fairly large hole as well though, no? I get that he was injured all year, but he was still their number one receiver on the outside.

[FantasyFreak]

Rams picking up pick 57 changes my outlook on Henderson quite a bit right now.

Losing Cooks creates a fairly large hole as well though, no? I get that he was injured all year, but he was still their number one receiver on the outside.

Possibly. Maybe they like Reynolds. Just saying, it's another pick they could take a RB with.

[ArrylT]

Looking at the results vs. the NFL Draft - I think that most of us had a pretty decent grasp on RB Vulnerability. Except maybe Aaron Jones and/or Marlon Mack owners.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Looking at the results vs. the NFL Draft - I think that most of us had a pretty decent grasp on RB Vulnerability. Except maybe Aaron Jones and/or Marlon Mack owners.

Yeah- I think the more interesting thing is how the #1 and #3 guys in the poll, Jones and Conner, didn’t take much of a hit. Their pre-draft ADPs were 101 and 89- I doubt either drops much from that. Conner might go up.

We definitely had a good handle on Kerryon Johnson’s fate.

This was a fun little project. Thanks to everybody who participated.

[Orenthal Shames]

Miles Sanders and Todd Gurley come out unscathed

[Jfever]

Sanders may be in line for a very productive season.

Gurley’s health is a concern for me, but if he does stay healthy, a top 10 scoring season seems very likely.

[Pullo Vision]

I know the Steelers had few resources, but still surprised they didn't bring in competition. Still some good FAs, though- Freeman, Hyde, Lamar Miller.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Here's how this played out, based on Mizelle startup ADP:

Damien Williams- 95.5 in April to 184.17 in May, RB34 to RB47, 2nd most vulnerable, biggest drop

Kerryon Johnson- 58.67 in April to 132.5 in May, RB23 to RB39, 4th most vulnerable, 2nd biggest drop

Marlon Mack- 64.17 in April to 135.83 in May, RB25 to RB40, 8th most vulnerable, 3rd biggest drop

Darrell Henderson- 83.17 in April to 122 in May, RB30 to RB36, 5th most vulnerable, 4th biggest drop

Ronald Jones- 101.33 in April to 130.17 in May, RB35 to RB38 , most vulnerable, 5th biggest drop

Derrius Guice- 78.17 in April to 89.83 in May, RB29 to RB30, tied for 2nd least vulnerable, 6th biggest drop

Aaron Jones- 23.33 in April, 32.17 in May, RB12 to RB17, 11th most vulnerable, 7th biggest drop

Kenyan Drake- 37.17 in April to 44.67 in May, RB16 to RB19, least vulnerable, 8th biggest drop (as far as I can tell, he was basically just passed by CEH, Dobbins, and Akers)

Chris Carson- 76.17 in April to 83.17 in May, RB27 to RB27 9th biggest drop

Devin Singletary- 53.5 in April to 58.67 in May, RB22 to RB21, 6th most vulnerable, 10th biggest drop

Le'Veon Bell- 66.5 in April to 71.17 in May, RB26 to RB25, tied for 2nd least vulnerable, 11th biggest drop
=======================================================================
James Conner- 88 in April to 87 in May, RB32 to RB29, 3rd most vulnerable, no value loss

David Montgomery- 61.17 in April to 60.17 in May, RB24 to RB22, tied for 2nd least vulnerable, no value loss

Austin Ekeler- 28.5 in April, 26.17 in May, RB14 to RB 15, 7th most vulnerable, no value loss

Todd Gurley- 52 in April to 56.17 in May, RB19 to RB 20, 9th most vulnerable, no value loss

Williams, RoJo, Henderson, and Kerryon were all correctly identified as guys who would lose value and did. Conner was identified as a guy who would lose value, but didn't. Mack wasn't somebody many predicted would lose value, but his was obviously leveled. Drake is a weird case. His team added no competition and he fell a little bit, but he was going before the 1.03 (Dobbins) pre-draft, and I don't think anybody was trading a pick anywhere near that early for Drake.

[ericanadian]

Eno Benjamin isn’t nobody! I’ve seen a couple local guys suggest he’s a solid fit for the offense and may take some carries.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Eno Benjamin isn’t nobody! I’ve seen a couple local guys suggest he’s a solid fit for the offense and may take some carries.

Whoops. I 100% just forgot about him. I liked that fit at the time, too. To be fair, I don't think he has anything to do with Drake's value falling; I think he dropped because people more correctly assessed his value relative to Dobbins, CEH, and Akers after they all went on Day 1/2.

[Pullo Vision]

From that group, Singletary, Bell and Carson are interesting. Singletary got significant IMO competition added but he didn't drop (much or at all) in value. Bell had Perine and Gore added and, more significantly, has a coach who seems to want to cut back histouches. Unless you consider Dallas a significant add, Carson doesn't face more competition but his value fell by ADP, though not RB drafting rank.