Dynasty League Football Forum

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:40 am

DJB wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:10 am

FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:45 pm

Yeah. Heard Ray Garvin and Nick Erlano talk about Rondale a bit, and they basically said what I was saying last year. That he was the best athlete in his program, and they manufactured a lot of plays for him, especially around the LOS. Can't do that in the NFL to the same level, and even when Zona tried it, his yards per touch were really low. He's was always going to be a better college player than NFL player, with his lack of size, arm length, hand size, catch radius. His college YPR were super low, which was a red flag to the type of targets he was getting. Not sure about Wandale, but I don't think he belongs in round 1 conversation. Will be interesting to see what the Chiefs do, as well as the Bills. I wonder if they go RB early, thinking it's the missing piece.

Ray Garvin is the most overrated analyst on twitter ive come across. Dude consistently falls in love with guys who for me just arent going to produce for fantasy.

He was all over Rondale Moore and i hated him told people to stay away and i also got lit up and trashed when i had Reagor way down my WR list close to 10th his year as well. Garvin had Reagor near the top too

Yeah, I don't care for him either. It was Erlano making the points about why Moore wasn't going to be a success, and wasn't last year. I remember Garvin touting him big last year, too. He is/was a Spiller over Hall guy, too, I found out through that Pod, which was before the RB day. Gross. It's funny, in a way, because he got started because he was listening to people talk about prospects, and felt he knew more than they did, as I recall. His inspiration for getting started. You and I obviously feel the same way, when we listen to him. One thing he does do, is, he hustles. He sells his "knowledge" through enthusiasm and confidence. I disagree with a ton of what he says, and actually stopped listening to him for the same reason he started. I have no interest in podcasting or anything, but yeah, Moore and Reagor come to mind. I believe that it was Erlano's pod who I don't love either, but agreed with his take on Moore, because I was saying it a year earlier. I don't listen to podcasts anymore. First one I've listened to in ages. I maxed out on those things, and anyone with a mic can do it, just listen to "Ball Blast". There's your proof.

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:19 am james cook seem to be a very interesting 2nd late - begining 3rd round rookie draft prospect. very good catching passes, i don't know about pass protection, not as big as we like for a 3 down back but mcaffrey did amazing stuff at a similar size so.

Mjvb5 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:01 am

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:19 am james cook seem to be a very interesting 2nd late - begining 3rd round rookie draft prospect. very good catching passes, i don't know about pass protection, not as big as we like for a 3 down back but mcaffrey did amazing stuff at a similar size so.

I like Cook quite a bit as a nice 3rd down kinda back, however saying hes a similar size to CMC is stretching it a bit IMO.
Cook-5'11" 190lb
CMC-5'11" 202lb
CMC was already viewed as a slight back to get a big workload, imagine knocking off that extra weight.

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:29 am

Mjvb5 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:01 am

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:19 am james cook seem to be a very interesting 2nd late - begining 3rd round rookie draft prospect. very good catching passes, i don't know about pass protection, not as big as we like for a 3 down back but mcaffrey did amazing stuff at a similar size so.

I like Cook quite a bit as a nice 3rd down kinda back, however saying hes a similar size to CMC is stretching it a bit IMO.
Cook-5'11" 190lb
CMC-5'11" 202lb
CMC was already viewed as a slight back to get a big workload, imagine knocking off that extra weight.

I took the 199lbs of cook at the combine

Mjvb5 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:00 am

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:29 am

Mjvb5 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:01 am

I like Cook quite a bit as a nice 3rd down kinda back, however saying hes a similar size to CMC is stretching it a bit IMO.
Cook-5'11" 190lb
CMC-5'11" 202lb
CMC was already viewed as a slight back to get a big workload, imagine knocking off that extra weight.

I took the 199lbs of cook at the combine

Sorry about that, pulled up his draft profile cause that normally shows official combine numbers......

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:13 am

Mjvb5 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:00 am

Dynos wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:29 am

I took the 199lbs of cook at the combine

Sorry about that, pulled up his draft profile cause that normally shows official combine numbers......

hehe no worries, at 199 it's really close to mcaffrey. no he won't be mcaffrey, but i find him to be a nice late 2nd round pick

StripesOfKC wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 7:22 pm Tentative RB tiers by my model (considers rec yards market share, yards per team play, weighted dominator--80% yards/20% TDs, yards created--all experience adjusted--ie the production expectation is higher a player's third year than his first, size, speed score and draft capital)

Considering current mock draft positions by Grinding the Mocks EDP

Tier 1: Breece Hall (round 2--has a chance at tier 0 actually with 1st round draft cap--not necessarily how high I think of him but my model loves him)
Tier 2: Isaiah Spiller (round 3--can jump to tier 1 with a good pro day/2nd round capital), Kenneth Walker (round 2)
Tier 3: Zamir White (round 3--falls to T4 if he goes 4th round)
Tier 4: James Cook (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Richaad White (round 4--up to tier 2 with day 2 capital), Tyler Allegier (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Jerome Ford (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Kyren Williams (round 4--up to tier 2 with day 2 capital), Sincere McCormick (round 5--up to tier 3 if he gets day 2 capital)

Prior classes
2021
Tier 1: Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams
Tier 2: Najee Harris
Tier 3: Trey Sermon
Tier 4: Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert
2020
Tier 0: Jonathan Taylor
Tier 1: D'Andre Swift, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins
Tier 2: Clyde Edwards Helaire
Tier 3: Antonio Gibson, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss, KeShawn Vaughn, Darrynton Evans
Tier 4: Eno Benjamin, Joshua Kelly
2019
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery
Tier 3: Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison
Tier 4: Bryce Love, Justice Hill
2018
Tier 0: Saquon Barkley
Tier 1: Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice
Tier 2: Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Royce Freeman
Tier 3: Ronald Jones
Tier 4: Mark Walton, Kalen Ballage, Justin Jackson, Philip Lindsay
2017
Tier 0: Christian McCaffrey
Tier 1: Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, James Conner
Tier 3: Donta Foreman
Tier 4: Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, Brian Hill, Aaron Jones
2016
Tier 0: Ezekiel Elliott
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: CJ Prosise, Derrick Henry
Tier 3: Kenyan Drake
Tier 4: Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard

Going back to 2010: Similar to WRs (though for RBs I define a hit as a top 12 season not top 24), tier 0 prospects hit almost 100% of the time (grumbles in CJ Spiller), tier 1 prospects hit 75% of the time, tier 2 pretty much 50-50, tier 3 20% and tier 4 below 10%

MattDeezy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:51 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 7:22 pm Tentative RB tiers by my model (considers rec yards market share, yards per team play, weighted dominator--80% yards/20% TDs, yards created--all experience adjusted--ie the production expectation is higher a player's third year than his first, size, speed score and draft capital)

Considering current mock draft positions by Grinding the Mocks EDP

Tier 1: Breece Hall (round 2--has a chance at tier 0 actually with 1st round draft cap--not necessarily how high I think of him but my model loves him)
Tier 2: Isaiah Spiller (round 3--can jump to tier 1 with a good pro day/2nd round capital), Kenneth Walker (round 2)
Tier 3: Zamir White (round 3--falls to T4 if he goes 4th round)
Tier 4: James Cook (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Richaad White (round 4--up to tier 2 with day 2 capital), Tyler Allegier (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Jerome Ford (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Kyren Williams (round 4--up to tier 2 with day 2 capital), Sincere McCormick (round 5--up to tier 3 if he gets day 2 capital)

Prior classes
2021
Tier 1: Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams
Tier 2: Najee Harris
Tier 3: Trey Sermon
Tier 4: Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert
2020
Tier 0: Jonathan Taylor
Tier 1: D'Andre Swift, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins
Tier 2: Clyde Edwards Helaire
Tier 3: Antonio Gibson, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss, KeShawn Vaughn, Darrynton Evans
Tier 4: Eno Benjamin, Joshua Kelly
2019
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery
Tier 3: Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison
Tier 4: Bryce Love, Justice Hill
2018
Tier 0: Saquon Barkley
Tier 1: Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice
Tier 2: Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Royce Freeman
Tier 3: Ronald Jones
Tier 4: Mark Walton, Kalen Ballage, Justin Jackson, Philip Lindsay
2017
Tier 0: Christian McCaffrey
Tier 1: Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, James Conner
Tier 3: Donta Foreman
Tier 4: Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, Brian Hill, Aaron Jones
2016
Tier 0: Ezekiel Elliott
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: CJ Prosise, Derrick Henry
Tier 3: Kenyan Drake
Tier 4: Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard

Going back to 2010: Similar to WRs (though for RBs I define a hit as a top 12 season not top 24), tier 0 prospects hit almost 100% of the time (grumbles in CJ Spiller), tier 1 prospects hit 75% of the time, tier 2 pretty much 50-50, tier 3 20% and tier 4 below 10%

Curious to see if you have a model for WRs and the results of that?

StripesOfKC wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:11 am

MattDeezy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:51 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 7:22 pm Tentative RB tiers by my model (considers rec yards market share, yards per team play, weighted dominator--80% yards/20% TDs, yards created--all experience adjusted--ie the production expectation is higher a player's third year than his first, size, speed score and draft capital)

Considering current mock draft positions by Grinding the Mocks EDP

Tier 1: Breece Hall (round 2--has a chance at tier 0 actually with 1st round draft cap--not necessarily how high I think of him but my model loves him)
Tier 2: Isaiah Spiller (round 3--can jump to tier 1 with a good pro day/2nd round capital), Kenneth Walker (round 2)
Tier 3: Zamir White (round 3--falls to T4 if he goes 4th round)
Tier 4: James Cook (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Richaad White (round 4--up to tier 2 with day 2 capital), Tyler Allegier (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Jerome Ford (round 4--up to tier 3 with day 2 capital), Kyren Williams (round 4--up to tier 2 with day 2 capital), Sincere McCormick (round 5--up to tier 3 if he gets day 2 capital)

Prior classes
2021
Tier 1: Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams
Tier 2: Najee Harris
Tier 3: Trey Sermon
Tier 4: Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert
2020
Tier 0: Jonathan Taylor
Tier 1: D'Andre Swift, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins
Tier 2: Clyde Edwards Helaire
Tier 3: Antonio Gibson, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss, KeShawn Vaughn, Darrynton Evans
Tier 4: Eno Benjamin, Joshua Kelly
2019
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery
Tier 3: Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison
Tier 4: Bryce Love, Justice Hill
2018
Tier 0: Saquon Barkley
Tier 1: Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice
Tier 2: Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Royce Freeman
Tier 3: Ronald Jones
Tier 4: Mark Walton, Kalen Ballage, Justin Jackson, Philip Lindsay
2017
Tier 0: Christian McCaffrey
Tier 1: Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, James Conner
Tier 3: Donta Foreman
Tier 4: Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, Brian Hill, Aaron Jones
2016
Tier 0: Ezekiel Elliott
Tier 1: None
Tier 2: CJ Prosise, Derrick Henry
Tier 3: Kenyan Drake
Tier 4: Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard

Going back to 2010: Similar to WRs (though for RBs I define a hit as a top 12 season not top 24), tier 0 prospects hit almost 100% of the time (grumbles in CJ Spiller), tier 1 prospects hit 75% of the time, tier 2 pretty much 50-50, tier 3 20% and tier 4 below 10%

Curious to see if you have a model for WRs and the results of that?

I believe I posted my WRs last Friday (page 45 in this thread I think)

For this class I got: (ADP on Mock Draft Database at the time in parentheses)

Tier 1: Treylon Burks (12), Drake London (17), Garrett Wilson (14)--though with a tumble draft day it's possible he falls to tier 2
Tier 2: Jameson Williams (29)--though a chance of falling to tier 3 if he tumbles, David Bell (47)--actually has a chance to rise to tier 1 but probably won't get the draft capital, George Pickens (49), Wandale Robinson (63)
Tier 3: Jahan Dotson (33)--has a chance to rise to tier 2 with the right draft capital, Chris Olave (23)--has a chance to rise to tier 2 if better than expected capital, Justyn Ross (82)--has a chance to rise to tier 2, Jalen Tolbert (68), Khalil Shakir (81), Skyy Moore (79)--chance to rise to tier 2 actually for Moore
Tier 4: John Metchie (64), Alec Pierce (104)--with comp picks this is the end of the 3rd round
Tier 5: Romeo Doubs (day 3), Bo Melton (day 3)--I'll be honest: never even heard of this guy until my model liked him

Prior classes and further breakdown is on the page 45 post itself but don't want to clutter this thread with double posts

Patsfan86 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 12, 2022 12:54 pm I hope this Amari Cooper news keeps one of these 22 rookie WRs out of cleveland. I really like 5 of these guys and Cleveland would just be a death knell to any of them.