Rookie WR Production 2023

[Jigga94]

I would be buying Downs and Wicks everywhere. If I did not already own them practically everywhere lol

[Jigga94]

I've had some mixed feelings on Chig this year. On one hand, he's undersized, not a traditional TE and has some suspect hands.

On the other hand, he's a YAC monster, in a stagnant offense and with some TD progression (1 the entire year) he would be a TE1

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I would be buying Downs and Wicks everywhere. If I did not already own them practically everywhere lol

Hmm, interesting. I feel like their value is already at or has exceeded what I’d be willing to pay. What price would you be willing to pay? I have Downs in one league and I’ll be looking to sell.

[Jigga94]

I would be buying Downs and Wicks everywhere. If I did not already own them practically everywhere lol

Hmm, interesting. I feel like their value is already at or has exceeded what I’d be willing to pay. What price would you be willing to pay? I have Downs in one league and I’ll be looking to sell. Not that I think he’s a bad player, but I think his upside might be limited.

I guess I should look at market prices before blindly saying Buy buy buy! lol

I am just saying that those 2 are the ones under 47 YPG I would be most interested in acquiring for what is probably a 2nd rounder or throw in. (Example being, I still obviously prefer JSN, but doubt you can buy lower than a 1st). I believe in the talents overall. Downs is probably more of a WR2/3 ceiling for sure. Wicks could be very good as well, but a crowded WR room. That is probably the main reason he is a bit cheaper though.

Downs is ranked on KTC right behind a 2024 early 2nd in SF. Wicks right behind a late 2024 2nd.

[Jigga94]

This is how KTC ranks the rookies vs Picks in SF

Early 1st
Puka
--
Flowers/Addison/Mid 1st/Tank/JSN
--
Rashee
Late 1st/Reed
--
Early 2nd/Downs
Mid 2nd
Late 2nd/Wicks/Douglas/Mims/QJ/Wilson

Honestly, the screaming buy there is Rashee, but I expect that to correct a bit over time. Depending on how mid the 1st is, I would also easily send it for Flowers/Addison/Tank

[Sriracha]

I've had some mixed feelings on Chig this year. On one hand, he's undersized, not a traditional TE and has some suspect hands.

On the other hand, he's a YAC monster, in a stagnant offense and with some TD progression (1 the entire year) he would be a TE1

Chig's lack of production in an environment conducive to using his strengths is a massive red flag for me.

This Titans O-line has been bad, bad for huge stretches of the season and you'd expect a YAC TE to thrive as the outlet receiver in such a situation. That hasn't happened. Far more likely he fades into the Aether than he becomes the next Delanie Walker at this point but who knows? TE's are hard to predict and a lot of it might just come down to what QB emerges as the franchise guy in TEN.

[Sriracha]

This is how KTC ranks the rookies vs Picks in SF

Early 1st
Puka
--
Flowers/Addison/Mid 1st/Tank/JSN
--
Rashee
Late 1st/Reed
--
Early 2nd/Downs
Mid 2nd
Late 2nd/Wicks/Douglas/Mims/QJ/Wilson

Honestly, the screaming buy there is Rashee, but I expect that to correct a bit over time. Depending on how mid the 1st is, I would also easily send it for Flowers/Addison/Tank

People are still willing to use a late 2nd on QJ?

I'd buy Wicks and Wilson there. Both of them have shown enough that I'd take them over a random 2nd round dart throw and both have realistic reasons for not hitting the rookie YPG threshold. Wilson, coming back too early from the shoulder injury + not being able to generate rapport with a new QB in Murray and Wicks being a 5th round pick in a crowded receiving core. They both ended their seasons on a strong note and their tape is pretty impressive while being tied to strong QB play.

[Jigga94]

This is how KTC ranks the rookies vs Picks in SF

Early 1st
Puka
--
Flowers/Addison/Mid 1st/Tank/JSN
--
Rashee
Late 1st/Reed
--
Early 2nd/Downs
Mid 2nd
Late 2nd/Wicks/Douglas/Mims/QJ/Wilson

Honestly, the screaming buy there is Rashee, but I expect that to correct a bit over time. Depending on how mid the 1st is, I would also easily send it for Flowers/Addison/Tank

People are still willing to use a late 2nd on QJ?

I'd buy Wicks and Wilson there. Both of them have shown enough that I'd take them over a random 2nd round dart throw and both have realistic reasons for not hitting the rookie YPG threshold. Wilson, coming back too early from the shoulder injury + not being able to generate rapport with a new QB in Murray and Wicks being a 5th round pick in a crowded receiving core. They both ended their seasons on a strong note and their tape is pretty impressive while being tied to strong QB play.

Gotta be some QJ owners voting for him still in denial I have been a victim of the falling knife with 1st Rd WR before. QJ I am totally out on though (which means he probably is the one that magically turns it around)

Agree on buying Wicks and Wilson over the rest in that tier

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This is how KTC ranks the rookies vs Picks in SF

Early 1st
Puka
--
Flowers/Addison/Mid 1st/Tank/JSN
--
Rashee
Late 1st/Reed
--
Early 2nd/Downs
Mid 2nd
Late 2nd/Wicks/Douglas/Mims/QJ/Wilson

Honestly, the screaming buy there is Rashee, but I expect that to correct a bit over time. Depending on how mid the 1st is, I would also easily send it for Flowers/Addison/Tank

Addison and JSN are overvalued. I could understand a late-1st for Addison maybe but not mid. Not in this class. But I do understand why others would have him valued as a mid-1st.
Rashee and to a lesser extent Reed undervalued

I don’t think I’d give any 2nd for the rest. Chances are you will be able to get a receiver drafted in the 2nd round with that 2nd and you get another chance at the 47+ group. If I had to give a 2nd for one of those players I would give one for Downs. And just to re-iterate, I’m talking about SF and maybe TE Prem. In non-SF leagues I would totally keep Downs over any 2nd most likely.

Edit: I just don’t want to pay a 2nd and also burn a roster spot on a player that likely won’t be much of anything

The top rookies should be ranked something like this, imo.

Worth early-1st
Puka

Dell
Rice

Worth mid-1st
Flowers
Reed

Worth late-1st
Addison

[wickerkat1212]

Glad I held onto my Kraft shares.

[Shcritters]

Glad I held onto my Kraft shares.

Drafted them both in my main league… the problem
Is that they’ll cannibalize each other. I wish they were on different teams because they’d both be starters… instead we get both of them next year at 65% of what they could be.

[Cameron Giles]

I would be buying Downs and Wicks everywhere. If I did not already own them practically everywhere lol

Hmm, interesting. I feel like their value is already at or has exceeded what I’d be willing to pay. What price would you be willing to pay? I have Downs in one league and I’ll be looking to sell. Not that I think he’s a bad player, but I think his upside might be limited.

I guess I should look at market prices before blindly saying Buy buy buy! lol

I am just saying that those 2 are the ones under 47 YPG I would be most interested in acquiring for what is probably a 2nd rounder or throw in. (Example being, I still obviously prefer JSN, but doubt you can buy lower than a 1st). I believe in the talents overall. Downs is probably more of a WR2/3 ceiling for sure. Wicks could be very good as well, but a crowded WR room. That is probably the main reason he is a bit cheaper though.

Downs is ranked on KTC right behind a 2024 early 2nd in SF. Wicks right behind a late 2024 2nd.

Agreed.

- I don't see the appeal in moving Downs for an early 2024 2nd. Downs popped as a route runner throughout the season. Is there a chance the Colts could bring in an outside WR to compete with Pierce? Sure, but I think Downs is secure as the WR2 in that offense.

- I don't see the appeal in moving Addison for a late 1st and hoping that a rookie goes off for 70/900/10.

Also, FFT on Addison. Here's a list of rookie WRs who've had at least 70 receptions and 900 receiving yards since 2000:

- Eddie Royal
- Dwayne Bowe
- Marques Colston
- Michael Clayton
- Anquan Boldin
- Keenan Allen
- Odell Beckham
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Amari Cooper
- Michael Thomas
- Ceedee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Jaylen Waddle
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave
- Puka Nacua
- Rashee Rice
- Jordan Addison

There's a few whiffs in there, but otherwise, you're talking some very high floor players who had very good careers. Addison, already entered the NFL with the coveted 18-year-old breakout, 19-year-old Biletnikoff winner, and 1st-round pedigree as an early declare, 21-year-old. And now he has a feat that only 19 other rookie WRs have accomplished in the last 23 years.

His Open Score isn't great, but isn't overly concerning. We've seen him put some good CBs in a blender. The 49ers and Packers tape is out there. He's also still playing alongside Justin Jefferson for the forseeable future, which is a matchup nightmare.

I don't know. To me if looks like a duck and quacks like a duck..

[Sriracha]

The issue I have with Downs is he put this up with Minshew at QB and things will probably be much worse for him in the near future with AR as his QB

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hmm, interesting. I feel like their value is already at or has exceeded what I’d be willing to pay. What price would you be willing to pay? I have Downs in one league and I’ll be looking to sell. Not that I think he’s a bad player, but I think his upside might be limited.

I guess I should look at market prices before blindly saying Buy buy buy! lol

I am just saying that those 2 are the ones under 47 YPG I would be most interested in acquiring for what is probably a 2nd rounder or throw in. (Example being, I still obviously prefer JSN, but doubt you can buy lower than a 1st). I believe in the talents overall. Downs is probably more of a WR2/3 ceiling for sure. Wicks could be very good as well, but a crowded WR room. That is probably the main reason he is a bit cheaper though.

Downs is ranked on KTC right behind a 2024 early 2nd in SF. Wicks right behind a late 2024 2nd.

Agreed.

- I don't see the appeal in moving Downs for an early 2024 2nd. Downs popped as a route runner throughout the season. Is there a chance the Colts could bring in an outside WR to compete with Pierce? Sure, but I think Downs is secure as the WR2 in that offense.

- I don't see the appeal in moving Addison for a late 1st and hoping that a rookie goes off for 70/900/10.

Also, FFT on Addison. Here's a list of rookie WRs who've had at least 70 receptions and 900 receiving yards since 2000:

- Eddie Royal
- Dwayne Bowe
- Marques Colston
- Michael Clayton
- Anquan Boldin
- Keenan Allen
- Odell Beckham
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Amari Cooper
- Michael Thomas
- Ceedee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Jaylen Waddle
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave
- Puka Nacua
- Rashee Rice
- Jordan Addison

There's a few whiffs in there, but otherwise, you're talking some very high floor players who had very good careers. Addison, already entered the NFL with the coveted 18-year-old breakout, 19-year-old Biletnikoff winner, and 1st-round pedigree as an early declare, 21-year-old. And now he has a feat that only 19 other rookie WRs have accomplished in the last 23 years.

His Open Score isn't great, but isn't overly concerning. We've seen him put some good CBs in a blender. The 49ers and Packers tape is out there. He's also still playing alongside Justin Jefferson for the forseeable future, which is a matchup nightmare.

I don't know. To me if looks like a duck and quacks like a duck..

Addison played in 17 games so the list isn’t applicable. In any event, of course the list is going to look good…. That’s what’s I’m doing here and is the entire point of this thread.

I did think about it some more on the drive home, and I think late-1st was a bit harsh. I would lean somewhere between mid and late. Would probably not do 1.05/1.06 but also not do late as in 1.12. Somewhere inbetween.

[Cameron Giles]

Addison played in 17 games so the list isn’t applicable.

I did think about it some more on the drive home, and I think late-1st was a bit harsh. I would lean somewhere between mid and late. Would probably not do 1.05/1.06 but also not do late as in 1.12. Somewhere inbetween.

Even if you account for just the 17-game era:

- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Jaylen Waddle
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave

It's a smaller sample, but it's still continuing off the type of quality that the 16-game sample has.

To each his own, but I don't see Addison as a concerning prospect at all. He's been a stud since his freshman year of college and is still a stud in the NFL. I think there's a lot to suggest that his OS will improve going forward, which of course isn't unheard of.