CJ Stroud & Coin Flips

[Shcritters]

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

Here's a simple way to grasp the concept.

Let's say you're at a casino. Let's say you can place one of the following bets. Same bet, same return, same loss.
9 coin tosses, all heads
10 coin tosses all heads.

Would you bet that a coin flipped 9 times would return 9 heads,
or would you bet that a coin flipped 10 times would return 10 heads?

I would assume that all reasonable people would choose 9 times. Why risk losing on the 10th flip?

We can take the same thinking to QB draft crops. In any given year, it would be extremely rare for every first round QB to end up a long term starter in the NFL. Just as it would be extremely unlikely to flip a coin five times get five consecutive heads. Yes, each flip is a 50/50 proposition, but getting five in a row is highly unlikely and is not a 50/50 proposition.

So, if historical facts indicate not all of the 2023 first round QBs are going to be a success, we have to start trying to figure out which ones are not going to turn up heads. I've accepted the proof Stroud has presented that he is already a heads flip. Now the discussion becomes, of AR and Young, which is more likely to be a heads. So far AR looks more like a heads flip than Young.

That leaves us with an unfortunate scenario. To bet on Young being a success, you virtually have to bet right now that ten coin flips will return ten consecutive heads. I'd never make that bet.

This is a really really bad take on how statistics work. Just like the 10th coin flip is completely unrelated to the first 9 coin flips...the chances of Young being successful are completely unrelated to the Stroud or AR. Young is his own flip. It doesn't matter if Stroud or AR are heads or tails.

I agree with this. If we're thinking about these as random coin flips then the logic here is flawed.

But if we're thinking about this from a Monte Hall perspective - where we know that (say) only 2 out of 4 will hit then it makes sense.

The question you need to ask yourself is if you think drafting players is more like flipping coins or more like a situation where you know that only a certain % of players will hit. If the former, the best strategy is to get as many chances at coin flips as possible and to study the coins to see if there are any giveaways on if it will be a heads or tails. If it is the latter then the best approach is to try to find out as quickly as possible which are hits or misses so you can acquire them or get out of them ASAP. Anteater's strategy is essentially saying the latter... but if he's articulating that this is a 'coin-flip' situation then I'd suggest there's a mixing of paradigms in that line of thinking.

Back to Stroud... he looks like a 'hit' (whether it was a coin-flip or he was behind door number 3 I'll leave that up to you to decide ).

[RoyalPalmer]

I've been extremely impressed with Stroud. He's fun to watch. Feels like a Swiss Army knife where he is able to complete any type of play he is given. He reads the field so well and is working with sub optimal weapons and a D tier O-line. There's elements of Stafford to his game with his decision making.

Speaking of weapons. Tank Dell is starting to feel like a statable option. I always get worried about the smaller WR's but Stroud clearly trusts him. He isn't as much as a target hog as Brandon Cooks but he isn't just a gadget guy like Rondale Moore. Feels like he will land a role more like Landry.

[trc]

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

Here's a simple way to grasp the concept.

Let's say you're at a casino. Let's say you can place one of the following bets. Same bet, same return, same loss.
9 coin tosses, all heads
10 coin tosses all heads.

Would you bet that a coin flipped 9 times would return 9 heads,
or would you bet that a coin flipped 10 times would return 10 heads?

I would assume that all reasonable people would choose 9 times. Why risk losing on the 10th flip?

We can take the same thinking to QB draft crops. In any given year, it would be extremely rare for every first round QB to end up a long term starter in the NFL. Just as it would be extremely unlikely to flip a coin five times get five consecutive heads. Yes, each flip is a 50/50 proposition, but getting five in a row is highly unlikely and is not a 50/50 proposition.

So, if historical facts indicate not all of the 2023 first round QBs are going to be a success, we have to start trying to figure out which ones are not going to turn up heads. I've accepted the proof Stroud has presented that he is already a heads flip. Now the discussion becomes, of AR and Young, which is more likely to be a heads. So far AR looks more like a heads flip than Young.

That leaves us with an unfortunate scenario. To bet on Young being a success, you virtually have to bet right now that ten coin flips will return ten consecutive heads. I'd never make that bet.

I understand the concept, the one I replied just don’t make any sense to me in the context of the other posts in the quote with wordings etc.

To your last paragraph, I honestly just think it is way to soon to pass that judgement over young. It is 3 games in, a lot of football to be played.
You could end up being right.

[KCLep20]

I was really excited to see a longer thread on Stroud vs. a couple days ago to read insights/opinions only to come here for statistical talk lol

[Ruggenater]

I thought Stroud was going to bust based on that S2 test.

Frank Reich should never be allowed to make a QB decision for a franchise again. If the Panthers get the 1st overall pick, they need to fire Reich quickly.

I just never understood the price they paid for an outlier. Maybe it works out, but the price they paid, Young needs to be a top 10 QB for his career, IMO. They could have used that pick to build OL, or D, and had a real shot at Caleb next year, or another top end QB.......or maybe grab a guy like Shedeur Sanders on day 2..... I kid, Giles, I kid.

This is what happens when franchises get desperate, though. Hiring a re-tread, to have a say in the process,too. IF I recall correctly, there was some real debate within the building, on who to take, which is never good. Sort of like the Lance situation. Not at all saying Bryce is Lance, but to make a move like this, there should be zero debate.

I am trying to think of the big trade UP, that worked at QB, recently. Help me out. There was RG3, Lance, recently. Any others I am missing?

Honestly, in regards to Reich, he looks old, tired and disengaged. He's not HC material. I'm amazed after what happened in Indy, that this organization would hire him and then pay that kind of capital to provide him with a QB. Insane. It was a ridiculous move, but IDK, maybe I'm wrong.

Reich was a good OC, but much like his playing days, is best playing 2nd fiddle. The Panthers are a mess.

The Texans look like the hired a good HC, who has the players playing above their pay grade already. They've likely hit on a few guys, in the non premium rounds too. They look like they have a rudder, and that bodes well for Stroud.

Depends what you consider “big”.

Bills paid two 2nds to move from 12 to 7 for Josh Allen.

Chiefs added a 1st and 3rd plus pick 27 to move up to 10 for Mahomes.

Texans added a 1st to pick 25 to move up to 12 for Deshaun Watson.

Going back further, the Falcons gave pick 5, a 2nd, a 3rd and a player to move up to 1 for Michael Vick.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I was really excited to see a longer thread on Stroud vs. a couple days ago to read insights/opinions only to come here for statistical talk lol

What were the odds?

[Shcritters]

I was really excited to see a longer thread on Stroud vs. a couple days ago to read insights/opinions only to come here for statistical talk lol

What were the odds?

Well, actually, when you consider the amalgamation of the Price is Right scenario #4 with the Wheel of Fortune Prize Puzzle they were 62.247%, and Vegas was giving it as 145:100, so it was a pretty good bet!

[Anteaters]

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/footb ... -much-more
This article has a great comparison for Stroud's great start.

Stroud is behind only Cam Newton and Justin Herbert for the best three-game yardage start in NFL history. He has done so with an unusual magnanimity for a rookie signal caller, spreading the ball around to his entire skill corps rather than simply locking on to his top 1-2 weapons.
...
Stroud has successfully slowed the game down to open passing windows up. Growing pains are still inevitable, but Stroud has forced himself into the top 18 at quarterback, with room to grow.

Having a start that compares in any way with guys like Cam and Herbert bodes well for Stroud. I'm just as impressed with his lack of INTs so far.

I'm locked in for the ride. With Carr out, team 2 in my sig will be riding Stroud+Tua for at least a couple of weeks. Hope he doesn't pick week 4 to have a hiccup.

Unable to keep myself from looking ahead to 2024, I can't help but wonder what happens if Houston uses their immense cap space to add a weapon like free agents-to-be Higgins or Pittman? This is going to be a fun ride!

[KCLep20]

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/footb ... -much-more
This article has a great comparison for Stroud's great start.

Stroud is behind only Cam Newton and Justin Herbert for the best three-game yardage start in NFL history. He has done so with an unusual magnanimity for a rookie signal caller, spreading the ball around to his entire skill corps rather than simply locking on to his top 1-2 weapons.
...
Stroud has successfully slowed the game down to open passing windows up. Growing pains are still inevitable, but Stroud has forced himself into the top 18 at quarterback, with room to grow.

Having a start that compares in any way with guys like Cam and Herbert bodes well for Stroud. I'm just as impressed with his lack of INTs so far.

I'm locked in for the ride. With Carr out, team 2 in my sig will be riding Stroud+Tua for at least a couple of weeks. Hope he doesn't pick week 4 to have a hiccup.

Unable to keep myself from looking ahead to 2024, I can't help but wonder what happens if Houston uses their immense cap space to add a weapon like free agents-to-be Higgins or Pittman? This is going to be a fun ride!

This is going to be key for the Texans but also for Stroud to develop in to a top 10-12 QB in fantasy. He's producing now with guys that are all <6' and <200lbs, he needs a true #1 WR like Higgins or Pittman that can be the guy while the rest of these players continue to play complimentary roles. With the Texans not having their own #1 in 2024, they need to hope the Browns continue to spiral and maybe they can get a mid-round pick (10-16) but will most likely need to utilize FA to fill that hole.

[Bronco Billy]

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/footb ... -much-more
This article has a great comparison for Stroud's great start.

Stroud is behind only Cam Newton and Justin Herbert for the best three-game yardage start in NFL history. He has done so with an unusual magnanimity for a rookie signal caller, spreading the ball around to his entire skill corps rather than simply locking on to his top 1-2 weapons.
...
Stroud has successfully slowed the game down to open passing windows up. Growing pains are still inevitable, but Stroud has forced himself into the top 18 at quarterback, with room to grow.

Having a start that compares in any way with guys like Cam and Herbert bodes well for Stroud. I'm just as impressed with his lack of INTs so far.

I'm locked in for the ride. With Carr out, team 2 in my sig will be riding Stroud+Tua for at least a couple of weeks. Hope he doesn't pick week 4 to have a hiccup.

Unable to keep myself from looking ahead to 2024, I can't help but wonder what happens if Houston uses their immense cap space to add a weapon like free agents-to-be Higgins or Pittman? This is going to be a fun ride!

What a dichotomy between Stroud’s start and Young’s. Stroud is sitting in best rookie start ever territory while Young is sitting in the Kyle Boller/Billie Joe Tolliver neighborhood.

[zeeshan2]

As a Texans fan, I couldn't be more thrilled with his start. It's funny that Lovie Smith may have gifted us a franchise QB winning that Colts game; the amount of crap we took from that game to the draft and the preseason absolutely sucked. Stroud is doing this with old Robert Woods, 4/5 starting O line guys out, a new rookie OC, and an invisible run game. The knocks coming out on Stroud was that he was supposedly dumb because of his S2 test score and Ohio State QB curse, not to mention people said his WRs made him better than he was and he was too much of a statue in the pocket. Since this is a FF board, he's also capable of elevating his receiving options with Tank, Woods, and Nico. I don't know where this narrative was that the Texans were the worst possible landing spot for a QB or how that situation is miles better than any situation for the 3 QBs now that all the games are being played out.

As for Bryce, I wish him well but I think it was stupid of the Panthers to trade up for him especially with all the holes they have on their team. I never got taking a chance on a thin, undersized QB and thinking Bryce would break the mold and become an outlier despite his physical shortcomings. He just doesn't have any other redeeming qualities to offset his short size(big arm, rushing ability akin to Lamar or Josh Allen) I wouldn't be surprised if they roll out Dalton again for the next game; even as a backup, I can tell that Andy has more zip on the ball and probably better for the offense right now and the Panthers have more incentive to play better since the Bears have their pick

[Ice]

Stroud have been fun to watch. He is on a team with very good coaching. Time to stop the talk of bad weapons. Both Collins and Dell are very good players. Who would have thought Dell would be the 2nd best rookie WR YTD only behind the Phenom Puka and better than all rookies last year with the exception of Olave so far.

While the stats probably won't hold up for the WR's ranking, it is obvious a connection with both WR's for the Texans are developing nicely. Both are top 22 YTD. Stroud is obviously playing well so far.

As far as Young is concerned, it is way too early to already discount him. He looks the part in his progressions but the interior of that O Line is just terrible so far this season. Team looks to be lacking team speed. While Young's size will always be a concern to many, any narrative that he can't play after 2 games is silly. Not a fan of their coaching creativity. Better line play is a must for this team. This may be a tough year for him.

[CGW]

I like the title change! Nice work someone

[Shcritters]

I like the title change! Nice work someone

X2

[Jigga94]

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/footb ... -much-more
This article has a great comparison for Stroud's great start.

Stroud is behind only Cam Newton and Justin Herbert for the best three-game yardage start in NFL history. He has done so with an unusual magnanimity for a rookie signal caller, spreading the ball around to his entire skill corps rather than simply locking on to his top 1-2 weapons.
...
Stroud has successfully slowed the game down to open passing windows up. Growing pains are still inevitable, but Stroud has forced himself into the top 18 at quarterback, with room to grow.

Having a start that compares in any way with guys like Cam and Herbert bodes well for Stroud. I'm just as impressed with his lack of INTs so far.

I'm locked in for the ride. With Carr out, team 2 in my sig will be riding Stroud+Tua for at least a couple of weeks. Hope he doesn't pick week 4 to have a hiccup.

Unable to keep myself from looking ahead to 2024, I can't help but wonder what happens if Houston uses their immense cap space to add a weapon like free agents-to-be Higgins or Pittman? This is going to be a fun ride!

This is going to be key for the Texans but also for Stroud to develop in to a top 10-12 QB in fantasy. He's producing now with guys that are all <6' and <200lbs, he needs a true #1 WR like Higgins or Pittman that can be the guy while the rest of these players continue to play complimentary roles. With the Texans not having their own #1 in 2024, they need to hope the Browns continue to spiral and maybe they can get a mid-round pick (10-16) but will most likely need to utilize FA to fill that hole.

I will not tolerate this Nico Collins disrespect