2023 edition: Which highly rated pre-draft prospect will tumble the most post-draft?

[abloom]

Sean Tucker seems to be the easy answer ... Once flirting with 1st rd status now being had in 4th rds

Boutte was already being devalued after poor testing. Tucker had medical flags but had great (if unbelievable) personal pro day. Fell from Top 5 RB to taken in the teens @ position almost

Tucker received plenty of red flags prior to NFL draft. There were reports that teams left him off draft boards prior to draft.

Is it possible that this class sucked so much outside of the top guys that no one fell too much?

I think the likely winner may have been hooker, there were reports that he would be the 4th QB drafted and in the end of the first.

This is a little exaggerated. It is true though that some teams had Day 3 grades on Tucker before the medical concerns became dominant, but then he ended up going undrafted altogether.

Tucker without this heart condition is a completely different game. Suddenly we're talking about a three-down back, with an elite athletic profile and the size necessary to be featured.

Which occured during the combine, way before the NFL draft. His medicals didn't just pop up during the NFL draft resulting in his drop, it started during the post combine period.

[Cameron Giles]

Tucker received plenty of red flags prior to NFL draft. There were reports that teams left him off draft boards prior to draft.

Is it possible that this class sucked so much outside of the top guys that no one fell too much?

I think the likely winner may have been hooker, there were reports that he would be the 4th QB drafted and in the end of the first.

This is a little exaggerated. It is true though that some teams had Day 3 grades on Tucker before the medical concerns became dominant, but then he ended up going undrafted altogether.

Tucker without this heart condition is a completely different game. Suddenly we're talking about a three-down back, with an elite athletic profile and the size necessary to be featured.

Which occured during the combine, way before the NFL draft. His medicals didn't just pop up during the NFL draft resulting in his drop, it started during the post combine period.

Teams don't start scouting players during the combine. Yes, after the combine when teams got medicals, Tucker was removed from draft boards.

There are months before the combine though where players are scouted thoroughly. That's why I'm saying that Tucker was not "off draft boards" during that stretch. He was considered anywhere from Day 2 to Day 3, and not UDFA.

If those medicals were not an issue, then he easily gets drafted, and possibly even Round 3-4. I just disagree with anyone implying that Tucker was going to go undrafted because of who he is as a football player.

[Bronco Billy]

Before the medical red flag, Tucker was probably looking at a later 5th rounder on the high end and more likely 6th round draft capital IMO. Someone likely would have taken a chance on his athleticism but there are a lot of holes in his game and I’d find it difficult to believe any NFL team viewed him as a 3 down RB.

[Cameron Giles]

Before the medical red flag, Tucker was probably looking at a later 5th rounder on the high end and more likely 6th round draft capital IMO. Someone likely would have taken a chance on his athleticism but there are a lot of holes in his game and I’d find it difficult to believe any NFL team viewed him as a 3 down RB.

You can have flaws in your game and still be a solid three-down back. Some highlights of Tucker's profile without the medical red flags:

- 5'9, 207
- 30.6 BMI
- 94th percentile target share
- 4.39 40YD Pro Day
- 38 inch Vertical
- 85th Percentile speed score

He was not off draft boards before his medicals became known. His draft pedigree without the red flag is a completely different game with believable outcomes anywhere from Day 2 to Day 3. This is why he's the only UDFA who's being taken with consistency in rookie drafts.

[Bronco Billy]

Before the medical red flag, Tucker was probably looking at a later 5th rounder on the high end and more likely 6th round draft capital IMO. Someone likely would have taken a chance on his athleticism but there are a lot of holes in his game and I’d find it difficult to believe any NFL team viewed him as a 3 down RB.

You can have flaws in your game and still be a solid three-down back. Some highlights of Tucker's profile without the medical red flags:

- 5'9, 207
- 30.6 BMI
- 94th percentile target share
- 4.39 40YD Pro Day
- 38 inch Vertical
- 85th Percentile speed score

He was not off draft boards before his medicals became known. His draft pedigree without the red flag is a completely different game with believable outcomes anywhere from Day 2 to Day 3. This is why he's the only UDFA who's being taken with consistency in rookie drafts.

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

My assessment of Tucker before the draft, FWIW:

Now that the initial issue with the OP is fixed:

Tucker looks to me like the classic case of a RB who is very productive at the college level but does not have the traits necessary to see a productive transfer to the next level. He absolutely has the required athleticism, and the problem with that is it cloaks his weaknesses.

He’s fast as all get out when he gets loose and can string moves together as he progresses into the second and third level. He’s a very tough cover for any LB because of his speed. He keeps his legs churning upon contact and will move forward as he’s being tackled. He has good hands as a receiver and he has very good ball security. There are some very real positive traits.

Here’s the problems. He doesn’t run well in traffic and has trouble identifying seams when they aren’t wide open. In the NFL the holes are a lot slimmer and close quicker. When there isn’t a decisive hole he struggles to identify a seam and then get into it quickly. He’s hesitant and doesn’t see the small opening with enough determination and burst to get into it and through. Instead he waffles behind the line and ends up an easy tackle because he’s not a physical runner. He’ll never be a pile mover and will not get short yardage opportunities in the NFL. As a receiver he’s a sloppy route runner which negates his electric speed. It makes him a much easier cover at the pro level because he surrenders angles and doesn’t fool coverage. In pass protection he’s downright incompetent and will likely get his QB creamed when he’s required to pick up a rusher. He plays to his small size.

He can’t be a 3 down back in the NFL. He doesn’t have the interior rushing ability and doesn’t have the vision and determination to run in a zone stretch scheme. He’ll get pulled in short yardage and goal line opportunities. He could be a CoP RB but he’s going to have to improve his route running a lot and he has miles to go before he’s even barely competent and he’ll get trusted in pass protection.

I don’t think he has the mentality and physical nature to be a special team guy - maybe there’d be room as a returner for him. So I’m really struggling to figure out where he gets significant touches as a NFL RB. Then you add in the mysterious red flag of the medical issue that has sidelined him during the pre-draft process. There’s a real chance he could end up as an UDFA.

Someone will fall in love with his college tape and raw speed enough to draft him well before I’d be willing to burn a pick on him. There’s just not enough positive NFL level RB traits there and his flaws are just glaring.

[Cameron Giles]

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

[Bronco Billy]

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

I’m just pointing out the definitive statements you are making about NFL teams’ draft boards as fact and asking how you know that.

[Cameron Giles]

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

I’m just pointing out the definitive statements you are making about NFL teams’ draft boards as fact and asking how you know that.

...I just gave you three examples to support that.

[Bronco Billy]

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

I’m just pointing out the definitive statements you are making about NFL teams’ draft boards as fact and asking how you know that.

...I just gave you three examples to support that.

I’ve never known any of those 3 to have actual access to teams’ draft boards, so what you are saying here is news to me. I do know that teams lie to these guys like crazy predraft in an effort to manipulate the draft in their favor, and that those guys report those lies as fact.

[abloom]

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

So you're saying that his value was already lower prior to the draft. The question was asking which player would suffer the biggest dip post draft, tuckers dip was prior to the draft, and infact during/prior to the combine. The draft didn't cause his dip it cemented it.

[Cameron Giles]

I’m just pointing out the definitive statements you are making about NFL teams’ draft boards as fact and asking how you know that.

...I just gave you three examples to support that.

I’ve never known any of those 3 to have actual access to teams’ draft boards, so what you are saying here is news to me. I do know that teams lie to these guys like crazy predraft in an effort to manipulate the draft in their favor, and that those guys report those lies as fact.

Outside of Daniel Jeremiah, I can't think of three draft analysts who are more plugged into league consensus and board movement than Kiper, Brugler and McShay. McShay had been on an island with Jalen Carter's character concerns for months until everyone else caught on.

There's always smoke during draft season, but certain analysts have a lot more truth than the pack.

[Cameron Giles]

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

So you're saying that his value was already lower prior to the draft. The question was asking which player would suffer the biggest dip post draft, tuckers dip was prior to the draft, and infact during/prior to the combine. The draft didn't cause his dip it cemented it.

I agree that his stock decreased and that he has flaws as a player (obviously). I'm only saying that he wasn't "off draft boards" as you said until the medical concerns took spotlight. A clean bill of health does not result in the same outcome.

[abloom]

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

So you're saying that his value was already lower prior to the draft. The question was asking which player would suffer the biggest dip post draft, tuckers dip was prior to the draft, and infact during/prior to the combine. The draft didn't cause his dip it cemented it.

I agree that his stock decreased and that he has flaws as a player (obviously). I'm only saying that he wasn't "off draft boards" as you said until the medical concerns took spotlight. A clean bill of health does not result in the same outcome.

No he was definitely off draft boards. There were several reports of a potential 3-4rd round draft picks at RB dropping off several teams draft boards. Add to the fact that he wasn't drafted, it's likely it was him.

[cazzie33]

You keep saying this. How do you know that?

Before the season started, Dane Brugler had Tucker as a Top-5 RB and Todd McShay had him as a Top-50 overall player in this draft. When Mel Kiper was doing media rounds weeks before the draft, he said Tucker would be higher on draft boards if it weren't for the medical concern that was scaring teams off.

Do you think that Tucker went from that to an UDFA strictly off football ability, with his medical flags playing no role in that? If you do then cool, but I don't buy it. It's not like Tucker had a bad year like Boutte and Evans that made their stocks plummet.

I’m just pointing out the definitive statements you are making about NFL teams’ draft boards as fact and asking how you know that.

In the same way you & others say definitively that Tucker had dropped off the radar as a top 4-5 rd pick (if not totally off the board) Unless you have sworn documents by all 32 teams to that effect we are all going off projections ( our own & others)

Chris Simms who I'd guess is more connected than any of us had him as top 5 RB TALENT ! Medicals were reason he didn't perform @ combine but he did show video of pro day which supported his athleticism so most figured he'd drop but still get drafted in the later rds. (Which would mean he's on their radar and draft boards)

Of course we all "KNEW" after the draft that they didn't think he was a very good potential NFL RB. But then Tampa ...

[Bronco Billy]

In the same way you & others say definitively that Tucker had dropped off the radar as a top 4-5 rd pick (if not totally off the board) Unless you have sworn documents by all 32 teams to that effect we are all going off projections ( our own & others)

Actually, I try very hard to identify my opinion as only that. While I may have admittedly strong convictions I try to specifically include that it’s my position only. I counted at least 4 times on this page alone where I did that. Not sure why you felt the need to pick that fight without reading, but there it is.