Rookie WR Production 2023

[tstafford]

JSN is getting so many excuses, he's performed essentially the same as Wicks and is still beloved on a whole. Part of that is draft capital both in real life and fantasy but sheesh absolutely no thanks at his price. Addison on KTC is 13, way too high too.

JSN for sure benefits from his NFL and dynasty draft capital.

I wonder however if he really costs a mid-first in SF come draft time. Let's see what his price really is.

The vast majority of owners aren't gonna sell for less than a first but no one in their right mind will opt for JSN vs. rerolling for a Nabers/Odunze/Worthy/Coleman type imo.

"Less than a first" is different than a mid-first. But I understand your point. I want to see how his value changes (or doesn't) over the next few months. One of the hardest players to rank IMO.

[Mike11]

JSN is getting so many excuses, he's performed essentially the same as Wicks and is still beloved on a whole. Part of that is draft capital both in real life and fantasy but sheesh absolutely no thanks at his price. Addison on KTC is 13, way too high too.

When does draft capital stop meaning something?

Let's not act like JSN was complete garbage. 600 yards as a rookie isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's not awful either. Especially when you realize the obvious factors that capped his production this season. Geno missed games and Seattle's offense was just not as dynamic as it was a year ago. To top it off, he was still playing as the #3 WR.

Why wouldn't someone who owns JSN continue to value his draft capital and consider that improvement in the next few seasons is plausible?

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

[Cameron Giles]

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

It's also how you get caught missing out on good players. I'm not saying his situation is bad. I'm saying the circumstances around why he didn't produce more this season were clear, and some of that we knew going into the year. It wasn't a great rookie season, but I think he did enough where you can still believe in future improvement.

I think there's a balance between playing probabilities like this thread, actually watching games, utilizing other statistics, and also realizing that you shouldn't give up on certain talent hastily. Re-rolling rookie after rookie is not a loop you want to get caught in.

[Jigga94]

JSN is getting so many excuses, he's performed essentially the same as Wicks and is still beloved on a whole. Part of that is draft capital both in real life and fantasy but sheesh absolutely no thanks at his price. Addison on KTC is 13, way too high too.

JSN for sure benefits from his NFL and dynasty draft capital.

I wonder however if he really costs a mid-first in SF come draft time. Let's see what his price really is.

The vast majority of owners aren't gonna sell for less than a first but no one in their right mind will opt for JSN vs. rerolling for a Nabers/Odunze/Worthy/Coleman type imo.

I'm definitely not selling JSN for Coleman. I can see the other 3

[Bronco Billy]

Go back and read the JSN thread. There were plenty of people that considered him a locked in FF WR1 and were dismissive of any opinion or data that was contrary to that. They went into the draft closed minded, came away with JSN for a very high pick and aren’t likely to change their mind now despite his rookie year.

[Sriracha]

Jayden Reed is rightfully getting a lot of hype but he might be a sell given that he was debatably outplayed by Dontayvion Wicks with a lower YPRR and PFF grade despite getting the inside track to playing time because of draft capital.

Either Gutekunst just had the greatest draft class of his tenure or a lot of these rookies are being propped up by Jordan Love

Being propped up by J.Love doesn't bother me - he's not going anywhere.

I do think Reed still carries a little risk relative the crowded WR room (Wicks included). But that's why he isn't going to cost the same as Jordan Addison or Puka or even JSN. Looking forward to seeing some ADP data in a month or so on all these guys.

It matters as it relates to playing time.

Christian Watson is pretty much locked into his starting role as a dynamic deep threat and elite run blocker and if Wicks proves to be the more talented WR that will limit Reed to primarily being their slot receiver with a capped ceiling -- since you need to be on the field to score fantasy points.

Right now there is the assumption that Reed is at worst the 2nd best WR in GB, and he likely is, but Wicks has debateably had the better rookie season especially given the fact he's worked his way into the fold despite being a 5th round pick.

[wickerkat1212]

Go back and read the JSN thread. There were plenty of people that considered him a locked in FF WR1 and were dismissive of any opinion or data that was contrary to that. They went into the draft closed minded, came away with JSN for a very high pick and aren’t likely to change their mind now despite his rookie year.

Yep. This is me.

[murphysxm]

Go back and read the JSN thread. There were plenty of people that considered him a locked in FF WR1 and were dismissive of any opinion or data that was contrary to that. They went into the draft closed minded, came away with JSN for a very high pick and aren’t likely to change their mind now despite his rookie year.

I am one of those posters. I will say my long term expectations have adjusted, but I am not overly concerned by his season. He missed most of camp with a broken wrist that limited him early, he was entrenched behind two solid veteran WR's and there was QB flux. He earned more touches as the season went on and I still expect him to be a fantasy asset long term. Has his value gone done, clearly to the consensus. But saying you are going to be caught holding the bag on a WR with his skill set to me is pretty reactionary.

[CGW]

JSN is getting so many excuses, he's performed essentially the same as Wicks and is still beloved on a whole. Part of that is draft capital both in real life and fantasy but sheesh absolutely no thanks at his price. Addison on KTC is 13, way too high too.

When does draft capital stop meaning something?

Let's not act like JSN was complete garbage. 600 yards as a rookie isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's not awful either. Especially when you realize the obvious factors that capped his production this season. Geno missed games and Seattle's offense was just not as dynamic as it was a year ago. To top it off, he was still playing as the #3 WR.

Why wouldn't someone who owns JSN continue to value his draft capital and consider that improvement in the next few seasons is plausible?

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

Not really the same situation at all when the Jets literally had no other WR competition. JSN, on the other hand, was drafted as the number #3 for the Hawks.

Don't want to answer for anyone else, but what I believe is going to change in situation is Lockett moving on. Whether he does or not, I think JSN will be the #2 next year with a full off season of pro conditioning and strength program (let's not forget he missed quite a bit of important time last off season with his broken hand).

[Mike11]

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

It's also how you get caught missing out on good players. I'm not saying his situation is bad. I'm saying the circumstances around why he didn't produce more this season were clear, and some of that we knew going into the year. It wasn't a great rookie season, but I think he did enough where you can still believe in future improvement.

I think there's a balance between playing probabilities like this thread, actually watching games, utilizing other statistics, and also realizing that you shouldn't give up on certain talent hastily. Re-rolling rookie after rookie is not a loop you want to get caught in.

But this whole thread is specifically talking about historic thresholds to find good players and JSN is in the 74% bust category as it stands today. 13% stud, 13% good, so when you say missing out on good players, the numbers are not in your favor that he's good. I think he can be a WR2 and have 1k yard seasons still, I'm just saying everything as it stands today doesn't indicate that at all.

Go back and read the JSN thread. There were plenty of people that considered him a locked in FF WR1 and were dismissive of any opinion or data that was contrary to that. They went into the draft closed minded, came away with JSN for a very high pick and aren’t likely to change their mind now despite his rookie year.

I am one of those posters. I will say my long term expectations have adjusted, but I am not overly concerned by his season. He missed most of camp with a broken wrist that limited him early, he was entrenched behind two solid veteran WR's and there was QB flux. He earned more touches as the season went on and I still expect him to be a fantasy asset long term. Has his value gone done, clearly to the consensus. But saying you are going to be caught holding the bag on a WR with his skill set to me is pretty reactionary.

He didn't earn more touches as the season went on, he had 29 in the first 8 games he played and 31 in the last 8, even with his snap % going from the 50s the first four weeks to the high 60s the last 4 weeks. He was always going to be entrenched this year so that hasn't changed, he's still a slot dominant player as of now and Lockett is still under contract. If JSN "improves" but only has 800 yards next year people will still be waiting for him to be worth his WR16 overall prices right now. He has ADV as some people call it, artificial dynasty value based on name more than game as it stands.

When does draft capital stop meaning something?

Let's not act like JSN was complete garbage. 600 yards as a rookie isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's not awful either. Especially when you realize the obvious factors that capped his production this season. Geno missed games and Seattle's offense was just not as dynamic as it was a year ago. To top it off, he was still playing as the #3 WR.

Why wouldn't someone who owns JSN continue to value his draft capital and consider that improvement in the next few seasons is plausible?

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

Not really the same situation at all when the Jets literally had no other WR competition. JSN, on the other hand, was drafted as the number #3 for the Hawks.

Don't want to answer for anyone else, but what I believe is going to change in situation is Lockett moving on. Whether he does or not, I think JSN will be the #2 next year with a full off season of pro conditioning and strength program (let's not forget he missed quite a bit of important time last off season with his broken hand).

The cap hit would by 19M in dead space to cut him. They could cut him but that's what I'm seeing on the contract. Agree about the competition but that also means Wilson was drawing number 1s every week, whereas JSN was drawing number 3s out of the slot which should be considered too. Even if Lockett is cut, the QB situation stays similar (which we also don't know) DK will still be the #1 and eat. As the number 2 he basically would have to be Devonta Smith to be deserving of his value and I don't think that's his talent level (never had less than 900 yards and had 900 as a rookie). Not breaking these thresholds has been a near historic death sentence. Why anyone should give a mid/late first for JSN would be beyond me. The pick will be worth more than that not only today but in 3 months time.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Not really the same situation at all when the Jets literally had no other WR competition. JSN, on the other hand, was drafted as the number #3 for the Hawks.

Don't want to answer for anyone else, but what I believe is going to change in situation is Lockett moving on. Whether he does or not, I think JSN will be the #2 next year with a full off season of pro conditioning and strength program (let's not forget he missed quite a bit of important time last off season with his broken hand).

I do think this is correct. Whether or not Lockett is back in 2024, I expect the torch to be passed to JSN as the #2 read (at worst) in the offense. Tyler has been a great player, but his seasonal yardage totals, and YPC have been in decline over the last 3 years. I think the age cliff is at hand for him.

[mild]

I do think this is correct. Whether or not Lockett is back in 2024, I expect the torch to be passed to JSN as the #2 read (at worst) in the offense. Tyler has been a great player, but his seasonal yardage totals, and YPC have been in decline over the last 3 years. I think the age cliff is at hand for him.

JSN outproduced him down the stretch from Week 11 on despite seeing less snaps, less targets, and less receptions than Lockett.

I'd argue the torch is already in the process of being passed.

(related stat: Lockett hasn't scored a TD since Week 10)

[Menace2010]

JSN is getting so many excuses, he's performed essentially the same as Wicks and is still beloved on a whole. Part of that is draft capital both in real life and fantasy but sheesh absolutely no thanks at his price. Addison on KTC is 13, way too high too.

When does draft capital stop meaning something?

Let's not act like JSN was complete garbage. 600 yards as a rookie isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's not awful either. Especially when you realize the obvious factors that capped his production this season. Geno missed games and Seattle's offense was just not as dynamic as it was a year ago. To top it off, he was still playing as the #3 WR.

Why wouldn't someone who owns JSN continue to value his draft capital and consider that improvement in the next few seasons is plausible?

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

Do you mean that same Nico Collins that only had 400 yards as a rookie? And that same Pittman that only had 500 yards as a rookie? Just confirming. The work DD has done is an incredibly useful tool in our toolkit. But alone shouldn't dictate outcomes. Or you'd have moved all those Nico and Pittman shares for pennies on the dollar.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I do think this is correct. Whether or not Lockett is back in 2024, I expect the torch to be passed to JSN as the #2 read (at worst) in the offense. Tyler has been a great player, but his seasonal yardage totals, and YPC have been in decline over the last 3 years. I think the age cliff is at hand for him.

JSN outproduced him down the stretch from Week 11 on despite seeing less snaps, less targets, and less receptions than Lockett.

I'd argue the torch is already in the process of being passed.

(related stat: Lockett hasn't scored a TD since Week 10)

I don't think there's a disagreement, just semantics. If Lockett is on the team in 2024, he'll play an ancillary/support role, and JSN will dominate in snaps, targets, etc...

It would not surprise me however if Tyler retires after this season. He's already very involved as a real estate agent in the Puget Sound area, doing well, and sure would save himself from additional wear and tear. We'll probably know soon enough though.

It's why even though those that drafted JSN with a premium pick this year didn't get what they'd hoped for, I'd give him another year to see what happens.

[Mike11]

When does draft capital stop meaning something?

Let's not act like JSN was complete garbage. 600 yards as a rookie isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's not awful either. Especially when you realize the obvious factors that capped his production this season. Geno missed games and Seattle's offense was just not as dynamic as it was a year ago. To top it off, he was still playing as the #3 WR.

Why wouldn't someone who owns JSN continue to value his draft capital and consider that improvement in the next few seasons is plausible?

Because that's how you get caught holding the bag. I think 600 yards playing the whole season is pretty bad, he had 3 fantasy games in double digits and never eclipsed 15 points. It's really not good, and I'm not here saying that means you sell him - I'm saying I'm not buying at the price an owner would want. I don't believe many owners wouldn't sell for a mid first reroll. I also don't think anyone is paying that but seeing him as WR16 on KTC is abysmal and I promise come draft time he'll be outside the top 20 once the rookies get added in. I'd easily rather have Zay without hesitation (WR17), and Pittman, Higgins, Metcalf, Nico and even London probably who by the communities standards are below him on KTC. We all know the sites pitfalls but it is a solid way to crowdsource how the masses still view JSN.

You're saying his situation isn't great, but why would it be better next year? Is Geno leaving? Geno missing 3 games isn't enough of an excuse when Garret Wilson put up 1K with high school QBs this year and last. JSN owners feel very stubborn to me, whether that is right or wrong is tbd but nothing JSN did this year was overly inspiring from any statistical standpoint. Even ignoring raw stats his open score wasn't particularly high either.

Do you mean that same Nico Collins that only had 400 yards as a rookie? And that same Pittman that only had 500 yards as a rookie? Just confirming. The work DD has done is an incredibly useful tool in our toolkit. But alone shouldn't dictate outcomes. Or you'd have moved all those Nico and Pittman shares for pennies on the dollar.

It shouldn’t dictate outcomes alone but Nico didn’t play a whole season and neither did Pittman - they played 14 and 13 games respectively. Additionally my point is more knowing what we know now with Nico and Pittman not being particularly old it’s odd to me to cover JSN more when you’re hoping he becomes them and has less odds of doing it after year 1. Nico and Pittman also have more solid QB situations.