Antonio Gibson Rocket Ship - Round 2

[jenkins.math]

I disagree. Don't have him anywhere but trying to buy

No way is Peyton Barber getting that much work every week

You disagree after week 1 is over? Interesting take. He had 11 so I guess I was completely wrong anyway!

Oops I thought it was made after week 1. Didn't even know he had 11

Just think his week 1 is a floor and there is a buy window here

Most people that roster Gibson are Gibson truthers that knew he was raw and would need some time. I don't think anybody that owns him has lowered their asking price after one week.

What value drop has he had in a week to make you think there is a buying window all of a sudden?

[Jigga94]

You disagree after week 1 is over? Interesting take. He had 11 so I guess I was completely wrong anyway!

Oops I thought it was made after week 1. Didn't even know he had 11

Just think his week 1 is a floor and there is a buy window here

Most people that roster Gibson are Gibson truthers that knew he was raw and would need some time. I don't think anybody that owns him has lowered their asking price after one week.

What value drop has he had in a week to make you think there is a buying window all of a sudden?

Right, the only way I see someone selling is if it's for a 1st and I know a lot of people here would still hold. I'd cash out for the 1st but I understand the logic if you believed in him enough to take him early 2nd this year. I viewed him more as a late 2nd and if someone got him there, I could see them cashing out now. Would probably mean you drafted rookies early summer or prior. The hype has been rolling for a while

[Ice]

Offered a 1st next year in a couple of leagues. Rejected.

[Patsfan86]

So this went about how i expected, i said 6-8 rushes he got 9, and i said 5-6 targets he got 2 (this was off). Im happy with the debut and literally nothing has changed. Some have tried to say "Well if you take out the 20 yard run, he only had 16 yards". I will never understand this logic and its only used to try to make a really bad point that the player really didnt have a good day. You cant take out the 20 yard run. I expect him to get more involved in this offense and be startable in a few weeks.

[Yarnith]

So this went about how i expected, i said 6-8 rushes he got 9, and i said 5-6 targets he got 2 (this was off). Im happy with the debut and literally nothing has changed. Some have tried to say "Well if you take out the 20 yard run, he only had 16 yards". I will never understand this logic and its only used to try to make a really bad point that the player really didnt have a good day. You cant take out the 20 yard run. I expect him to get more involved in this offense and be startable in a few weeks.

You mean showcasing that without a big run his avg per carry is bad lending support to the idea he is not going to be a 3 down runner for a while is somehow flawed? Interesting view of advanced metrics, I thought it was the future of analyzing but apparently its just bad logic, please continue.

[Sriracha]

So this went about how i expected, i said 6-8 rushes he got 9, and i said 5-6 targets he got 2 (this was off). Im happy with the debut and literally nothing has changed. Some have tried to say "Well if you take out the 20 yard run, he only had 16 yards". I will never understand this logic and its only used to try to make a really bad point that the player really didnt have a good day. You cant take out the 20 yard run. I expect him to get more involved in this offense and be startable in a few weeks.

You mean showcasing that without a big run his avg per carry is bad lending support to the idea he is not going to be a 3 down runner for a while is somehow flawed? Interesting view of advanced metrics, I thought it was the future of analyzing but apparently its just bad logic, please continue.

Would you say that big run is a fluke, or was it an inevitably given his skillset?

[Yarnith]

Would you say that big run is a fluke, or was it an inevitably given his skillset?

I would say his game is predicated on them. I dont think anyone has argued he isn't a big play waiting to happen. The big divide seems to be can he get it done like a CMC as more an every down back. This week we got nothing showing he can, its early yet though time will tell.

[FantasyFreak]

So this went about how i expected, i said 6-8 rushes he got 9, and i said 5-6 targets he got 2 (this was off). Im happy with the debut and literally nothing has changed. Some have tried to say "Well if you take out the 20 yard run, he only had 16 yards". I will never understand this logic and its only used to try to make a really bad point that the player really didnt have a good day. You cant take out the 20 yard run. I expect him to get more involved in this offense and be startable in a few weeks.

You mean showcasing that without a big run his avg per carry is bad lending support to the idea he is not going to be a 3 down runner for a while is somehow flawed? Interesting view of advanced metrics, I thought it was the future of analyzing but apparently its just bad logic, please continue.

Would you say that big run is a fluke, or was it an inevitably given his skillset?

The run was based on fantastic blocking. Literally anybody could have made that, but that's not his fault. Every RB has chunk plays. It should not be held against Gibson. Really seeing how the RB did requires careful watching by coaches, who know the play designs, figuring out how well he did or didn't do, to determine his level of involvement.

[Sriracha]

Would you say that big run is a fluke, or was it an inevitably given his skillset?

I would say his game is predicated on them. I dont think anyone has argued he isn't a big play waiting to happen. The big divide seems to be can he get it done like a CMC as more an every down back. This week we got nothing showing he can, its early yet though time will tell.

lol I'm not going to get into is Antonio Gibson a 3 down back at this point.. just that it's silly to calculate his yards per carry while ignoring his big plays -- since Gibson busting a big run will not be an overly rare occurrence; especially since his competition had 17 carries for 29 yards.

I'm not overly excited about Gibson, but so long as Bryce Love isn't active I think it's more likely that he begins to out-touch Peyton Barber than it is for Barber to maintain this lead.

[Sriracha]

The run was based on fantastic blocking. Literally anybody could have made that, but that's not his fault. Every RB has chunk plays. It should not be held against Gibson. Really seeing how the RB did requires careful watching by coaches, who know the play designs, figuring out how well he did or didn't do, to determine his level of involvement.

I believe you're selling Gibson a bit short on that play. It was a fast closing crease and he had a nice cutback. Possible that the much less athletic Peyton Barber is tackled behind the line of scrimmage on that play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__zm3VATTCA

0:32 is the play you're referring to

[Madadamus]

He's drawn Christian McCaffrey comparisons, and people want that or expect to see that right away. Do we not remember how Christian McCaffrey began his career?

He ran the ball 117 times for 435 yards. Here are some of his rushing game logs from weeks 2 through week 8 his rookie year:

8 carries, 10 yards
4 carries, 16 yards
6 carries, 16 yards
3 carries, 7 yards
4 carries, 8 yards
7 carries, 10 yards

Obviously he caught 80 balls that year, but he wasn't someone that was coveted like he was today. He was the "small white RB" that can't run between the tackles. He put on weight following that season, and the rest is history.

I'm not saying Gibson is going to be the next CMC, but you literally can't write him off after 1 game or take away his 20 yard run. This is a guy still learning his position, and his opportunities should only grow as the season goes on given his talent and the sub-par talent in his RB room.

He doesn't have the top 10 pedigree like CMC, but he does have early round 3 draft capital tied to him and the offense kind of wants a player that is multiple. The thing to watch is his snap counts and whether he starts to pass block which he wasn't asked to do week 1. If he can't learn the football aspects of the position that aren't fantasy related, well then he will never be more than a tease.

He's an intriguing guy for sure that is worth monitoring. If you spent early-mid round 2 draft pick on him, there's really no reason to cut ties for a later 1st in my opinion, unless it's a SF league or a league that boosts the value of picks.

[FantasyFreak]

The run was based on fantastic blocking. Literally anybody could have made that, but that's not his fault. Every RB has chunk plays. It should not be held against Gibson. Really seeing how the RB did requires careful watching by coaches, who know the play designs, figuring out how well he did or didn't do, to determine his level of involvement.

I believe you're selling Gibson a bit short on that play. It was a fast closing crease and he had a nice cutback. Possible that the much less athletic Peyton Barber is tackled behind the line of scrimmage on that play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__zm3VATTCA

0:32 is the play you're referring to

I think most NFL RB's could hit that. That's a big cut back lane in the NFL. Now not sure how a plodder like Barber would have fared after the cut back, but that's a hole almost any NFL back should be able to hit. He made the right read, which is nice. Thought he went down a little too easy, think he got his feet caught up. I like Gibson. I'd want him, at the right price. I don't think he's cut out for a lead back role, but I think he's a good COP back, capable of 12-15 quality touches a week.

[blemly]

I’m ready to push a 2022 1st to the Gibson owner for him + Shepard. Feels like solid value and RBs are at a premium in this league.

[Bot101]

You mean showcasing that without a big run his avg per carry is bad lending support to the idea he is not going to be a 3 down runner for a while is somehow flawed? Interesting view of advanced metrics, I thought it was the future of analyzing but apparently its just bad logic, please continue.

Would you say that big run is a fluke, or was it an inevitably given his skillset?

The run was based on fantastic blocking. Literally anybody could have made that, but that's not his fault. Every RB has chunk plays. It should not be held against Gibson. Really seeing how the RB did requires careful watching by coaches, who know the play designs, figuring out how well he did or didn't do, to determine his level of involvement.

This is false. Yes the line opened a big hole, but Gibsons elite burst and speed made 2 defenders take bad angles. Put a slower and less explosive back that run goes for about 5-6 yards and hes tackled by #97. Is he ready for a full workload? Obviously not. But if anyone comes away not seeing how Gibson is easily the most talented player in that backfield is just fooling themselves with take lock. Every word from Washington is backed by action, Gibson is a very very good, albeit raw, talent. The best time to buy will be in a couple more weeks assuming he doesnt take one of those explosive plays to the house, or he doesnt get more involvement in the passing game (which is his calling card).

[FantasyFreak]

Would you say that big run is a fluke, or was it an inevitably given his skillset?

The run was based on fantastic blocking. Literally anybody could have made that, but that's not his fault. Every RB has chunk plays. It should not be held against Gibson. Really seeing how the RB did requires careful watching by coaches, who know the play designs, figuring out how well he did or didn't do, to determine his level of involvement.

This is false. Yes the line opened a big hole, but Gibsons elite burst and speed made 2 defenders take bad angles. Put a slower and less explosive back that run goes for about 5-6 yards and hes tackled by #97. Is he ready for a full workload? Obviously not. But if anyone comes away not seeing how Gibson is easily the most talented player in that backfield is just fooling themselves with take lock. Every word from Washington is backed by action, Gibson is a very very good, albeit raw, talent. The best time to buy will be in a couple more weeks assuming he doesnt take one of those explosive plays to the house, or he doesnt get more involvement in the passing game (which is his calling card).

It's a really easy hole for an NFL back to hit. No RB is getting tackled by 97 IMO, as long as the continue the cut back out to the left. If they run straight ahead after making the initial cut, sure. That would have to do with lack of vision, though, not athleticism.