Rookie WR Production 2023

[Dynasty DeLorean]

In case people don't want to look at the other longer section, here are the updated hit rates after I've went through each player individually to make sure they qualify for the sample (yes, this took a while).


67+ (10 total) (9 Stud) (1 Bust)
90% Stud
0% Good
90% Good or Better
10% Bust


57-66 (14 total) (7 Stud) (3 Good) (4 Bust)
50% Stud
21% Good
71% Good or Better
29% Bust


47-56 (29 Total) (10 Studs) (12 Good) (7 Bust)
34% Stud
41% Good
76% Good or Better
24% Bust


37-46 [39 Total] (5 Stud) (5 Good) (29 Bust)
13% Stud
13% Good
26% Good or Better
74% Bust


27-36 [61 Total] (8 Stud) (5 Good) (48 Bust)
13% Stud
8% Good
21% Good or Better
79% Bust

[gpaok]

After how many years do you update the statistics? For example have you taken 2021 rookies and put them in a hit or bust category for Bateman or Elijah?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

After how many years do you update the statistics? For example have you taken 2021 rookies and put them in a hit or bust category for Bateman or Elijah?

It’s really way too early. Some players don’t break out until year 5 or 6. I was still getting new goods and new studs just a year or two ago for the 2014/2015 class. I will start looking into adding some years next year potentially.

[gpaok]

After how many years do you update the statistics? For example have you taken 2021 rookies and put them in a hit or bust category for Bateman or Elijah?

It’s really way too early. Some players don’t break out until year 5 or 6. I was still getting new goods and new studs just a year or two ago for the 2014/2015 class. I will start looking into adding some years next year potentially.

I assumed so, just didn’t know what years have been added so far! Thanks! I also wonder if the more recent classes qualify as studs sooner (with people like Chase, Jefferson)

[Jigga94]

After how many years do you update the statistics? For example have you taken 2021 rookies and put them in a hit or bust category for Bateman or Elijah?

It’s really way too early. Some players don’t break out until year 5 or 6. I was still getting new goods and new studs just a year or two ago for the 2014/2015 class. I will start looking into adding some years next year potentially.

Hopefully my post from a day ago with 2016-2018 helps a bit. Only a handful of WR were in the 47+ tiers

[gpaok]

After how many years do you update the statistics? For example have you taken 2021 rookies and put them in a hit or bust category for Bateman or Elijah?

It’s really way too early. Some players don’t break out until year 5 or 6. I was still getting new goods and new studs just a year or two ago for the 2014/2015 class. I will start looking into adding some years next year potentially.

Hopefully my post from a day ago with 2016-2018 helps a bit. Only a handful of WR were in the 47+ tiers

Your post was also very helpful for sure!!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I usually never go on Reddit, but was bored today. Seeing the way the DynastyFF subreddit talks about having to hold onto the Burks and Dotsons of the world is hilarious. And how not to worry if your favorite rookie wr isn’t doing anything, that you’re a moron to be concerned. It’s like they’re all still living in the Stone Age.

[Mike11]

I usually never go on Reddit, but was bored today. Seeing the way the DynastyFF subreddit talks about having to hold onto the Burks and Dotsons of the world is hilarious. And how not to worry if your favorite rookie wr isn’t doing anything, that you’re a moron to be concerned. It’s like they’re all still living in the Stone Age.

People forget there is an aspect to fantasy football that revolves around hope. People can't admit that those guys are sinking assets because some of them paid to get them and have to believe these is a chance they will turn around. They're cooked assets, no one will pay for them and you can't cut them. Basically worst position to be in.

[Jigga94]

I usually never go on Reddit, but was bored today. Seeing the way the DynastyFF subreddit talks about having to hold onto the Burks and Dotsons of the world is hilarious. And how not to worry if your favorite rookie wr isn’t doing anything, that you’re a moron to be concerned. It’s like they’re all still living in the Stone Age.

Reddit itself doesn't favor the dynasty format as everything on reddit is old after 12 hours. So you get a new thread every day of "How are we feeling about JSN?"

[BabyChark23]

I usually never go on Reddit, but was bored today. Seeing the way the DynastyFF subreddit talks about having to hold onto the Burks and Dotsons of the world is hilarious. And how not to worry if your favorite rookie wr isn’t doing anything, that you’re a moron to be concerned. It’s like they’re all still living in the Stone Age.

To be fair, I think Burks is a hold right now. Not because he’s ever going to be a stud, but because, atleast in my leagues, no one is paying anything for him. If I could get a 2nd or could pair him with something to get a reliable piece, I’d do it. But no one is biting. I guess what I’m saying is that he’s “stuck” on my roster more so than that he’s a “hold”.

[Sriracha]

I usually never go on Reddit, but was bored today. Seeing the way the DynastyFF subreddit talks about having to hold onto the Burks and Dotsons of the world is hilarious. And how not to worry if your favorite rookie wr isn’t doing anything, that you’re a moron to be concerned. It’s like they’re all still living in the Stone Age.

People forget there is an aspect to fantasy football that revolves around hope. People can't admit that those guys are sinking assets because some of them paid to get them and have to believe these is a chance they will turn around. They're cooked assets, no one will pay for them and you can't cut them. Basically worst position to be in.

To be fair.. Burks did hit some decent efficiency miles stones his rookie year and has mostly disappointed this season because he's only played one game, when the Titan's offense was putrid, playing behind Hopkins.

I have a lot more hope for Burks turning things around than Dotson -- who has done jack diddly for 6 weeks and seems to have been passed on the depth chart by Curtis Samuel.

[StripesOfKC]

I usually never go on Reddit, but was bored today. Seeing the way the DynastyFF subreddit talks about having to hold onto the Burks and Dotsons of the world is hilarious. And how not to worry if your favorite rookie wr isn’t doing anything, that you’re a moron to be concerned. It’s like they’re all still living in the Stone Age.

People forget there is an aspect to fantasy football that revolves around hope. People can't admit that those guys are sinking assets because some of them paid to get them and have to believe these is a chance they will turn around. They're cooked assets, no one will pay for them and you can't cut them. Basically worst position to be in.

To be fair.. Burks did hit some decent efficiency miles stones his rookie year and has mostly disappointed this season because he's only played one game, when the Titan's offense was putrid, playing behind Hopkins.

I have a lot more hope for Burks turning things around than Dotson -- who has done jack diddly for 6 weeks and seems to have been passed on the depth chart by Curtis Samuel.

That's the thing with Dotson

People blaming Howell like the team doesn't have the 6th most passing yards in the league before questioning if Dotson is just not the guy they thought he was if he can't outproduce Logan Thomas

[Sriracha]

That's the thing with Dotson

People blaming Howell like the team doesn't have the 6th most passing yards in the league before questioning if Dotson is just not the guy they thought he was if he can't outproduce Logan Thomas

The Dotson love is perplexing.

His fans aren't even holding out hope that he turns things around -- they straight up just think he's a stud based on highlights and Matt Harmon steaming him up on reception perception and are jumping through hoops to make excuses for his complete lack of production.

[Cameron Giles]

That's the thing with Dotson

People blaming Howell like the team doesn't have the 6th most passing yards in the league before questioning if Dotson is just not the guy they thought he was if he can't outproduce Logan Thomas

Catchable target rate (before Sunday and according to Player Profiler):

Thomas - 88.2%
Samuel - 85.2%
McLaurin - 83.9%
....
....
Dotson - 60%

I have no idea why this is the way that it is, but it's really intriguing. I watched the Atlanta/Washington game yesterday and saw a bad drop from Dotson on a wide open pass. I'm pretty sure that was his only target of the game.

[Jigga94]

2022 WR class is definitely taking some hits on value. Last year's report led you to holding onto Olave, Wilson, London and Pickens, which so far looks great. All of them are putting up similar or better numbers this year, with very suspect QB play between all of them.

1st rd:
Dotson and Burks are the 2 main ones. They were close to hitting the 47 ypg threshold, but both had PFF ratings below 75. Both have fallen down dynasty ranks rapidly.
TBD on Jamo I suppose. He's a big play waiting to happen, but need to see it consistently

2nd rd:
Watson, similar to Burks/Dotson, barely missed the ypg threshold, but did have a better PFF rating. Coming back from injury, so TBD for now, but I think he ends up being a hit
The other 2nd rounders not mentioned yet are all close to toast. Wandale and Skyy may be good situational players, but don't see it happening for fantasy. Metchie/Thornton/Pierce are easily toast.

Next highest in terms of YPG last year was Shaheed. I love him as a player, but have to temper expectations as he's also more of a role player in his offense. Still, he is set to beat last year's numbers and has had some nice weeks. Better in bestball

Next next highest was Doubs. Never really saw it with this guy last year, but I think he's improved a little. Still don't think he's long for the starting role and GB will continue to develop and draft players over the next few years. I see Doubs being filtered out sooner than later. Reed is more talented imo.